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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Ok. I'll keep my eyes open though. People on my twitter feed were kind of freaking out about it so I asked.

A couple of Dems jumped fence in the House, but they could be in tough districts. That said, the fact the GOP on this so fast makes me nervous, as do the 5 Dems breaking ranks to vote for it. Hope to god Schumer is up for the fight of his life, what a time to lose Harry Reid.
 
I was trying to figure out why this random ass precinct on the east side in LA went for Trump and then I realized.

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h3lyT7V.png
 
I feel less awful about things now that it's more obvious that the Trump people are content wasting what little political capital they have on their awful cabinet picks since they'll have basically zero leverage to pass any sizeable legislation without massive concessions to Democrats. The Senate did the right thing to not nuke the filibuster. It's a check on their own potential stupidity and ironically protects their House majority by blocking their crazy shit and keeping most of it under the radar.

None of the legislation actually proposed up to this point has any chance of passing the Senate. Zero. And his ridiculous diplomatic boastings will need 2/3rds in the Senate, as would a lot of his trade ideas. The Senate is not going to vote to get out of NATO, or toss out our military arrangements with Japan or ROK, etc., and if Trump actually abandoned European allies and didn't offer support in a shooting war you'd get impeachment. I'd expect lawsuits against executive orders, too, if he keeps throwing money around with them while avoiding congress in increasingly large amounts.

The only thing keeping me sane currently is how horribly Trump has handled the media. In my wildest dreams I would never have thought he's screw things up so much and so quickly. His first official statement to global media was "biggest attendance, period!" and then repeated defenses of it. That's before the "alternate facts" thing, even! Trump's ego coming through the press briefings is going to drag on him continuously. He couldn't withstand even 1 day of organized protests against him, and the more he throws a fit about it the more people will be energized to protest further.
 

kirblar

Member
The article details that it's more than just the residency programs preventing the high barrier of entry to get doctors into the US, particularly the number of years it takes to get licensed even if you're already a qualified and trained doctor.

This article from The New York Times also covers the same problems

The Atlantic article also explicitly links these protectionist policies to the higher wages for doctors in the US.

Even if that's wrong, I do believe your comment was

Which isn't true at all and the inverse is the actual relationship. It's almost like exposing local workers to cheaper foreign competition drives down wages, huh.

But sorry, I'll let you do the Pure Factual Analysis With No Ideological Bent.
The wages are going to be high even if you make significant reforms here. The exact difference is of course unknown, but they are going to be high nonetheless.
 
I am fully supportive of letting any doctor who wants to come to the United States into the United States and allowing them to practice medicine.

I'm not protectionist about... anything.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I was trying to figure out why this random ass precinct on the east side in LA went for Trump and then I realized.

7Lomgxf.png


h3lyT7V.png
Of course they like Trump, he can identify low energy people without an e-meter

*i don't actually know what an e-meter "measures"
 
The wages are going to be high even if you make significant reforms here. The exact difference is of course unknown, but they are going to be high nonetheless.
In the same way that if the median wage dropped from the current 187k to 125k doctors would still be high wage earners but you can guess that domestic doctors probably don't want that to happen!

It doesn't change your initial point that "we have lots of foreign doctors because our wages for them are high" when we have higher wages for doctors specifically because we keep foreign ones out.

Oh well, it won't matter when the gears of automation turn and replace them all with Watson.
 

Teggy

Member
Of course they like Trump, he can identify low energy people without an e-meter

*i don't actually know what an e-meter "measures"

How many souls of dead humans killed by the giant volcano you have stuck in you, or "thetans", IIRC.
 

kirblar

Member
In the same way that if the median wage dropped from the current 187k to 125k doctors would still be high wage earners but you can guess that domestic doctors probably don't want that to happen!

It doesn't change your initial point that "we have lots of foreign doctors because our wages for them are high" when we have higher wages for doctors specifically because we keep foreign ones out.

Oh well, it won't matter when the gears of automation turn and replace them all with Watson.
"I would have come but the turnaround was too long" was for that guy, but a lot still come despite the restrictions due to the wages. They attract talent.
 
"I would have come but the turnaround was too long" was for that guy, but a lot still come despite the restrictions due to the wages. They attract talent.
So we attract workers but because of the protectionism, they can't work here for over a decade assuming they even luck into a position. Is that better?

Your original point was that the US wasn't facing a doctor shortage because the high wages attract foreign doctors, but the wages are high because we block foreign doctors with policies to protect domestic doctors from competition with foreign doctors who would work for lower wages.

Plus automation is going to replace these jobs so clearly we should just tell doctors they'll be increasingly obsolete in the future.
 

kirblar

Member
So we attract workers but because of the protectionism, they can't work here for over a decade assuming they even luck into a position. Is that better?

Your original point was that the US wasn't facing a doctor shortage because the high wages attract foreign doctors, but the wages are high because we block foreign doctors with policies to protect domestic doctors from competition with foreign doctors who would work for lower wages.

Plus automation is going to replace these jobs so clearly we should just tell doctors they'll be increasingly obsolete in the future.
I never said anything about not facing a doctor shortage. I said that our high wages attract them. That is a very true statement.

WebMD is not going to be making docs obsolete.
 
I never said anything about not facing a doctor shortage. I said that our high wages attract them. That is a very true statement.
I believe your statement was
The US gets a huge influx of foreign ones because we actually pay ours well.
What is a "huge influx"? We have a large shortage of doctors. We have a process for becoming a licensed doctor that takes nearly a decade for people who already are qualified to do the job that turns away doctors who would otherwise come and work in the US. This isn't an accident. We're doing this to protect domestic doctors from competition with low wage foreign doctors. If we let the foreign doctors come in, wages for doctors will drop.
WebMD is not going to be making docs obsolete.
lol k there if you think professions aren't also going to get hit hard by automation, ugaboga even mentioned Watson earlier.
 
Hrm.

So Trumps approval ratings. He isn't gonna come back from that. Only way he does is if he brings about a golden age. Which won't happen.

Wonder how low his rating can get. What's the lowest ever?
 
They flipped two House seats, held Reid's seat, took both state houses, and held the state down for Clinton, so I assumed they're good. It looks like they got crushed in midterms though so maybe you're right and they just rode a wave of good feelings.
Eh, they did fine in 2010. Reid hanging on would be a minor miracle if not for the fact that he played the state GOP masterfully (similar to McCaskill goading the party into choosing Akin in Missouri in 2012). Skill with just a dash of luck.

They blew 2014 because they didn't bother getting a decent candidate to run against Sandoval, believing he was unbeatable. In fairness, he probably was, but conceding the top-ticket race in an otherwise sleepy year is a recipe for disaster. Even if the best you can do is finding a candidate who can scrape together the base 40-45%, that's still reason enough for the partisans to come out.

Like literally Sandoval won ~386k votes in 2014 compared to ~382k in 2010. Roughly a 4,000 vote difference. Big whoop. Bob Goodman, the Democrat in 2014 scored over 167k less votes than Rory Reid did in 2010. He didn't even get half.

The Reid machine is quite strong, and 2016 proved they can win without him on the ticket. They just need to remember not to slouch.
 
There's something about Sean Spicer...
This is the face of today’s Republican Party: The nose is pinched, the hair is sandy blond, the eyes are intense. But all you really need to know can be seen in the mouth. This is where Spicer’s talent and nervous energy meet. Watch it open wide enough to inhale his phone as he yells at an editor. Behold its versatility, as he at once chastises Trump for calling Mexicans rapists and murderers while also lauding him for calling attention to the issue of illegal immigration. Even when he is not speaking, it works on overdrive, churning through pieces of Orbit cinnamon gum, which he chews and swallows whole. Notwithstanding his line of work, the man just can’t stand a gross-feeling mouth.

“Two and a half packs by noon," said Spicer. “I talked to my doctor about it, he said it’s no problem.”
 

benjipwns

Banned
Do Scientologists have any political sway?
Sorta.

Scientology's main goal in the political realm is keeping off the radar and preserving their religious status. This is why they sometimes actually back out of lawsuits.


http://www.salon.com/2011/02/10/scientology_friends_dc/ said:
As far as I know, the only Scientologist to ever actually serve in Congress was the late Sonny Bono. His widow, Mary Bono Mack, who inherited his seat, attended courses, but never took to the religion.

Former Rep. Ben Gilman, R-N.Y., received thousands from the church, and, in return, as chairman of the International Relations Committee, he complained on several occasions that European nations were discriminating against Scientology. Or, put another way: “[On] the same day (July 2, 1998), ten prominent Scientologists donated a total of $7,400 to Congressman Benjamin A. Gilman’s coffer — three months before he signed on as a co-sponsor to Matt Salmon’s House of Representatives bill that was critical of Germany’s protection of religious freedom …” He was also thanked with this glowing profile in the church’s Freedom magazine.

Brad Sherman, D-Calif., and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., are two of the church’s best friends currently serving in Congress. They were both honored at a 2004 Celebrity Centre gala. (Here’s Ros-Lehtinen with John Travolta and Kelly Preston, and here’s Brad Sherman praising the church publicly.)

The church avoids “official” political donations (it is, after all, a tax-exempt religious organization), but prominent members still support politicians and politicians return the favor. Florida’s Mark Foley was a Scientology ally. (It was rumored that he checked into a church-affiliated recovery center after his resignation from Congress.) As a state legislator, Nevada’s Sharron Angle supported a Scientology-affiliated drug treatment therapy program for prisoners.

Craig Jensen, founder of the software company Diskeeper, and his wife, Sally Jensen, are major Scientologists, and their donations help identify which politicians are friendliest to the church. Former congressman James E. Rogan, now a Bush-appointed judge on the Superior Court of California, received thousands of dollars from prominent Scientologists throughout the 1990s. Even Ron Paul gets Scientology love, because he supports its tax-exempt status and opposes mental health screening for children.

And, of course, Sarah Palin is personal friends with prominent Scientologists Greta Van Susteren and her husband, attorney John Coale. Coale helped Palin start her PAC — and he once proposed starting a Scientology PAC, in the 1980s. At the time, the idea fizzled out.

But Scientology actually had a semi-open PAC for a few years, called “Citizens for Social Reform.” The church hasn’t donated anything in the last two cycles, but before that, it gave to the following pols:

Rep. Dan Burton, R-Ind.
Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Calif.
Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif.
Rep. Diane Watson, D-Calif.
Rep. Danny Davis, D-Ill. (also a friend of the Reverend Moon)
Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan.
Rep. John Sweeney, R-N.Y.
Rep. Dylan Glenn, R-Ga.

Also...RUSSIA:
Greg Mitchell, founder of the small firm The Mitchell Company, is the Church of Scientology’s official lobbyist in Washington, D.C. and also a Church of Scientology member. Insiders say that his role is to help the Church gain mainstream credibility with influential decision-makers.

On behalf of his client Church of Scientology International, Mitchell lobbied the White House Office four times: twice in 2009 and twice in 2012, according to lobbying disclosure forms. Church of Scientology International was Mitchell’s only client that he lobbied the White House for on these occasions, according to the disclosures.

In 2012, Mitchell took two payments of $20,000 each from Scientology to lobby the White House Office, State Department, Justice Department, and others for stronger U.S. engagement on Russia’s alleged “rising restrictions…contributing to an atmosphere of intolerance and discrimination against religious communities and their individual members,” according to 2012 lobbying disclosures.

Mitchell’s lobbying work highlighted his clients’ concern about Russia’s “increasing misuse of the 2002 Extremism Law to censor religious scriptures and disrupt religious organizations,” according to an April 2012 disclosure.

The 2002 Extremism Law has long been a thorn in the side of the Church of Scientology.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Senate Democrats to Unveil $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan

Snippets of news under the sub-heading "First 100 Days"


Democrats offer a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan

Daring Mr. Trump to make good on his grand infrastructure promises, Senate Democrats on Tuesday will unveil a trillion-dollar plan to rebuild the nation’s roads, railways, airports, waterways and sewer systems over 10 years.

“From our largest cities to our smallest towns, communities across the country are struggling to meet the challenges of aging infrastructure,” Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, will say. “Our urban and rural communities have their own unique set of infrastructure priorities, and this proposal would provide funding to address those needed upgrades that go beyond the traditional road and bridge repair.”

Republicans resisted President Barack Obama’s push for an infrastructure “surge” for eight years, arguing that the federal government couldn’t afford it and that state and local governments should shoulder more responsibility for improvements. But Mr. Trump has taken up the Democratic cause.

“We will build new roads, and highways, and bridges, and airports, and tunnels, and railways all across our wonderful nation,” he vowed in his Inaugural Address.

The plan dedicates $180 billion to rail and bus systems, $65 billion to ports, airports and waterways, $110 billion for water and sewer systems, $100 billion for energy infrastructure, and $20 billion for public and tribal lands.

“We’re asking President Trump to work with us to make it a reality,” Mr. Schumer will say.
 
Senate Democrats to Unveil $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan

Snippets of news under the sub-heading "First 100 Days"
So I'm aware this is mostly a dog-and-pony show and likely won't get passed (although Schumer and the red state Democrats probably wouldn't mind having something to brag about), but I find this interesting as a sort of gut check between Democrats and Republicans.

Republicans spent the last six years with a Democratic president. In that time, they pushed virtually no new bills or ideas. Their big ticket item was Obamacare repeal - "repeal and replace," they called it, although the replace part never surfaced and still hasn't (ignoring Collins' pissant bill until it gets support from leadership or anyone important).

Here you have the Democrats, now the full minority party, offering up legislation that would help millions of people and drive their own goals. It becomes clear which party actually has ideas.

Some scoff at the idea of "helping" or normalizing Trump - I partially agree with this sentiment. But I also think if we really need to make campaigns about our own ideas rather than playing constant offense against our opponents, this is a good place to start.

It's not passing anyway, and unlike the GOP we have an excuse.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Trump is spending all this time on blue collar factory jobs while ignoring the fact that these jobs are highly prone to automation and that the tax breaks given to the manufacterers does nothing to solve the problem of wage stagnation.
 
Trump is spending all this time on blue collar factory jobs while ignoring the fact that these jobs are highly prone to automation and that the tax breaks given to the manufacterers does nothing to solve the problem of wage stagnation.

Perception and visibility... Doesn't matter that this may just be delaying the inevitable. If trump is seen as fighting for blue color workers he stands a good chance of pushing the senate more red in 2018. Did you see the reaction of the Union Bosses yesterday... He has them tamed already
 

nitronite

Member
Perception and visibility... Doesn't matter that this may just be delaying the inevitable. If trump is seen as fighting for blue color workers he stands a good chance of pushing the senate more red in 2018. Did you see the reaction of the Union Bosses yesterday... He has them tamed already

Honestly, protectionism coupled with his apparent incoming fight against big pharma to lower drug prices is a good strategy to appeal to middle class voters. It's why I'm apprehensive about any predictions of a blowout in 2018 and 2020 for Democrats.
 

Diablos

Member
For some reason I think Trump will be a two term Pres. He made so many things not matter anymore that would have sinked any other President previously. Plus Dems are a fucking mess and have been since 2010. They were lucky for having Obama.

If he keeps up the perception game where he looks like a guardian of any factory that used to be on a shortlist for going overseas he's going to be a god damn hero to a lot of people.
 
This is a dumb plan. Not cause it may not get through, but because Dems shouldn't be doing anything to help make the economy look good under Trump.

If it could actually pass fuck playing politics with that. It won't pass but we can't intentionally sink the country to try to win.
 

Kusagari

Member
It's a pretty smart move by Schumer. There's zero chance it will pass so now the Dems can say they tried to hold Trump accountable on improving infrastructure when the Republicans with total control have done jackshit on it come 2018 and 2020.
 
The shortage of doctors is entirely artificial.

Increase the number of med schools and residency programs. There is no shortage of talented individuals who want to be doctors, just a hard cap preventing them from doing so.

AMA would never allow that though, as it would drive downward pressure on their wages.

It's not simply that though. Doctors only expect such high pay because of how expensive it is to go through medical school.

For comparison, CNAs are so sought after that their starting salary is usually much higher than minimum wage, and getting the credentials to be a CNA isn't very prohibitive.

My point is that one of best ways to help mitigate the potential job issues caused by automation is to subsidize and/or socialize training and apprenticeships in fields that desperately still need more workers.

And the best part is that having such a useful workforce could both be extended to more Marshall Plan type military intervention and be used as a huge bargaining chip in international trade deals.

For some reason I think Trump will be a two term Pres. He made so many things not matter anymore that would have sinked any other President previously. Plus Dems are a fucking mess and have been since 2010. They were lucky for having Obama.

If he keeps up the perception game where he looks like a guardian of any factory that used to be on a shortlist for going overseas he's going to be a god damn hero to a lot of people.

Trump is making too many enemies to last long now that he no longer can use Hillary as a distraction.
 

Wilsongt

Member
President Donald Trump is telling House and Senate leaders he would have won the popular vote in the 2016 election if not for the votes of 3 million to 5 million immigrants living in the country illegally.

There is no evidence to support Trump's claim.

Trump made the assertion at a meeting with congressional leaders Monday night. That's according to a Democratic aide familiar with the exchange, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private meeting. The Washington Post first reported the conversation.

Keep telling yourself that you fucker.
 

Wilsongt

Member
@Reuters

BREAKING Trump, at automaker CEO meeting, cites pledge to cut regulations, says environmentalism is out of control.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/823898807519809537


Faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaantastic...

/s

Lol.

Fuck this environment, let's give all the money to the rich.


It fits right along with this:

According to reports from ProPublica and The Huffington Post, the White House told the agency to immediately suspend its contract and grant programs on Monday and restricted all outgoing communication until further notice, measures a veteran staffer characterized as extraordinary.

ADVERTISEMENT

The intended duration of the funding freeze was not immediately clear, but the former head of Trump’s EPA transition team, Myron Ebell, confirmed that it had been put in place Monday night.

“They’re trying to freeze things to make sure nothing happens they don’t want to have happen,” Ebell told ProPublica. “So any regulations going forward, contracts, grants, hires, they want to make sure to look at them first.”

Ebell conceded that the suspension “may be a little wider” than those instituted by previous administrations, but claimed it was still “very similar.” Whether or not that is true, however, is difficult to determine, as staffers were told to cease communicating with the public on Monday, The Huffington Post reports.

I hope you enjoy your smog and dirty water for the next few years.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
Maybe I'm being obtuse, but it looks like they are saying you'll be able to buy plans that don't include every single one of those things. So, if you're in your 50s, your plan doesn't have to include prenatal care, etc.

The problem with that approach is that it segregates groups and you lose the efficiency of an economy of scale. If everyone chips in, any one of those services is far more affordable.

Look at cancer and cancer diagnostics on that list. Do you think old people will want to forgo that coverage? Whereas the young invincibles might. Or even look at prenatal. I'd argue men and women should pay into those types of benefits as it can affect their chidlren together. Some conservatives argue "i'm a man, I don't need to pay for pre-natal/maternity care".
 

FLEABttn

Banned
Maybe I'm being obtuse, but it looks like they are saying you'll be able to buy plans that don't include every single one of those things. So, if you're in your 50s, your plan doesn't have to include prenatal care, etc.

For one, it allows for underinsurance which was a large problem pre-ACA. But also, for pregnancy related items on the list, you'd just be shifting the burden of costs to a different time period. You aren't paying for that cost in your 50s, but you're certainly paying for it in your 20s-30s, so while premiums would be lower when you're older, they'd be more expensive when you're younger. Over a lifetime, the savings are probably close to 0.
 

DrMungo

Member
So I'm aware this is mostly a dog-and-pony show and likely won't get passed (although Schumer and the red state Democrats probably wouldn't mind having something to brag about), but I find this interesting as a sort of gut check between Democrats and Republicans.

Republicans spent the last six years with a Democratic president. In that time, they pushed virtually no new bills or ideas. Their big ticket item was Obamacare repeal - "repeal and replace," they called it, although the replace part never surfaced and still hasn't (ignoring Collins' pissant bill until it gets support from leadership or anyone important).

Here you have the Democrats, now the full minority party, offering up legislation that would help millions of people and drive their own goals. It becomes clear which party actually has ideas.

Some scoff at the idea of "helping" or normalizing Trump - I partially agree with this sentiment. But I also think if we really need to make campaigns about our own ideas rather than playing constant offense against our opponents, this is a good place to start.

It's not passing anyway, and unlike the GOP we have an excuse.

I think its an interesting strategy. If anything, it serves to highlight the division between Trump and neo-con ideologies
 

Wilsongt

Member
Hm.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/...t_may_roll_back_same_sex_marriage_rights.html

Back in September, the Texas Supreme Court refused to review a lower court ruling that cities may not deny married same-sex couples the benefits it provides to opposite-sex couples. That was a sensible decision, since this is an easy question: The U.S. Supreme Court’s same-sex marriage decisions undoubtedly prohibit the government from depriving couples of marriage rights merely because they are gay. Yet the Texas Supreme Court’s inaction prompted outrage from state Republican officials and anti-gay activists, who urged the justices, who are elected, to take the case and allow Texas cities to discriminate against same-sex couples. And on Friday, the court took the first step, caving to Republican demands and agreeing to hear the case in March—a worrying sign that the justices, fearful of a re-election fight, may soon yield to political pressure and roll back marriage equality in Texas.
 
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