PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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Murphy is a good guy but if he runs I don't think he'll win because he likely won't find footing over Bernie if he runs too. He'll likely try to move to the left of him on guns like Hillary did but I don't think it will work.

Also tristate area politics are garbage and some bad quotes will likely come back to haunt him. If Bernie doesn't run I actually think he has a shot. But him being a white man wont have any effect on his ability to win
 
VendettaRed07 said:
2020 will probably wind down to Harris vs Bernie.. and I think Bernie wins honestly.

But it's going to get ugly and I'm not looking forward to it.
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I don't think Bernie runs in 2020. Not only will he be very old, but he'd not really do as well as 2016.

He was a "I don't like Hillary, so I'm voting for him, whoever this guy is" vote for a lot of people (check out WV), and at this point, he can't afford to decrease his base any further. He lost, so just his 2016 base, copy and pasted to 2020 wouldn't work. "Establishment" Democrats will always outnumber Bernie voters, so unless he magically knows how to appeal to minorities (he doesn't) and establishment Democrats (also doesn't), he's not going to get even close to his 2016 levels, and not a prayer of actually winning.

He was at the right time to get the support he did. An extremely unliked "sure winner" in a field with absolutely no competition at all. With 2020 likely being a crowded field, and no front runner right out of the gate, where is Bernie's niche?
 
Murphy is very clean, I don't think there's a lot in his past that would get him in trouble. Also Connecticut is not New Jersey or New York, save for Rowland.
 
BlastProcessing said:
I wonder when Trump starts revoking press pases? That feels like his next move.

"Any outlet that publishes illegal leaks and fake news will not be tolerated."
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Huh? Do you see him giving interviews to Infowars, Lifezette or Dailycalller?

He's obsessed with the big media outlets. He'll never ban them.
 
nature boy said:
Huh? Do you see him giving interviews to Infowars, Lifezette or Dailycalller?

He's obsessed with the big media outlets. He'll never ban them.
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He is going to do something irrationally stupid very soon. That's what he generally does when he feels pressure. I think he will try to force the other big media outlets to get in line by banning a couple. Something like NBC and WaPo.
 
whyamihere said:
Prediction that has no basis in reality and means nothing: Harris and Gillibrand will both run and eat into their own potential bases.
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I don't get this, Gillibrand seems like Northeastern liberal with a somewhat cozy relationship with big finance and a much whiter base while Harris is more like a candidate born out of the ascendant coalition in the west. I'd rank Harris as much more likely to win Arizona in the general than Gillibrand.
 
VendettaRed07 said:
2020 will probably wind down to Harris vs Bernie.. and I think Bernie wins honestly.

But it's going to get ugly and I'm not looking forward to it.
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Bernie couldn't even beat Hillary, the Worst and Most Unpopular Candidate Ever, despite being the only other serious candidate.

He might win if the primary is like it was for the GOP last year, where Bernie plays the role of Trump because of a loud and excited base and a dozen other candidates splitting votes until it's too late.
 
Kamala has been doing nothing but feeding the base red meat and (dare I say it) grandstanding for the past six months. Too many easy answers to hard questions. Completely unimpressed so far.

I think she's trying to have her cake and eat it too, and I don't know what her base is yet, other than "looks Presidential"
 
I dunno. People saying a powerful black woman is "abusive" or an "asshole" starts setting off all kinds of alarm bells in my head.
 
Bonen no Max'd said:
I don't get this, Gillibrand seems like Northeastern liberal with a somewhat cozy relationship with big finance and a much whiter base while Harris is more like a candidate born out of the ascendant coalition in the west. I'd rank Harris as much more likely to win Arizona in the general than Gillibrand.
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Didn't you read it had no basis in reality?!
Y2Kev said:
I dunno. People saying a powerful black woman is "abusive" or an "asshole" starts setting off all kinds of alarm bells in my head.
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I mean, maybe, but it's also the general consensus from her time in Sacramento.
 
I don't know enough about Harris yet. Is she good at communicating, connecting, and outlining a broad vision, or are her strengths mostly lawyerly prosecution on Senate committees? Senators who have a law-school and prosecution background can be quite stiff and personally awkward.
 
One benefit to Murphy is that he's experienced because he's been in politics for his entire adult life but he's young and also doesn't to my knowledge have any shitty New Democrat triangulation stain on him. He's supported same-sex marriage since 2002 and his first race was unseating a Moral Majority type asshole in the 90's. By 2020 he'll have eight years as a senator and six as a congressman, even disregarding his state government tenure, which is substantially more than any of the other younger candidates. His foreign policy is the best of any Democrat and he doesn't seem to fail any normal litmus tests.

Big fan, I've grown increasingly fond of him running.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
I don't think Bernie runs in 2020. Not only will he be very old, but he'd not really do as well as 2016.

He was a "I don't like Hillary, so I'm voting for him, whoever this guy is" vote for a lot of people (check out WV), and at this point, he can't afford to decrease his base any further. He lost, so just his 2016 base, copy and pasted to 2020 wouldn't work. "Establishment" Democrats will always outnumber Bernie voters, so unless he magically knows how to appeal to minorities (he doesn't) and establishment Democrats (also doesn't), he's not going to get even close to his 2016 levels, and not a prayer of actually winning.

He was at the right time to get the support he did. An extremely unliked "sure winner" in a field with absolutely no competition at all. With 2020 likely being a crowded field, and no front runner right out of the gate, where is Bernie's niche?
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I think Bernie absolutely runs barring some sort of unforeseen issues with his health or he feels he's too old belt then. But I totally believe he intends on running as of now.

His favorables amongst democrats and independents are very high and even if he was initially elevated by the "not Clinton" vote at first, he now has a national profile and a ton of fans. also think a lot of people who liked Bernie did not vote for him last time because they thought he couldn't win a general election and he'd be an uneccessary risk to send out against Trump. "He's unelectable" won't work as a line against him next time.

We'll see I guess but I think if Bernie runs he has a better chance than gaf wants to believe he does.
 
VendettaRed07 said:
I think Bernie absolutely runs barring some sort of unforeseen issues with his health or he feels he's too old belt then. But I totally believe he intends on running as of now.

His favorables amongst democrats and independents are very high and even if he was initially elevated by the "not Clinton" vote at first, he now has a national profile and a ton of fans. also think a lot of people who liked Bernie did not vote for him last time because they thought he couldn't win a general election and he'd be an uneccessary risk to send out against Trump. "He's unelectable" won't work as a line against him next time.

We'll see I guess but I think if Bernie runs he has a better chance than gaf wants to believe he does.
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not with black voters he won't. He will be finished by SC like last time.
 
Not to be Kamala's top hater or anything, but in the most facile ways possible, she reminds me of John Edwards. The Democrat's demographic/electoral strategy personified. Running for President basically since before she was even sworn into the Senate.

Bernie as a Ronald Reagan-figure is interesting to me. I can definitely see him running. I don't know if he'd win the primary, or even a general election. But he's certainly in a hurry to wield all this newfound power he has.

I suspect there's way too much baggage. His ever growing bandwagon of corrupt and opportunistic friends will probably catch up to him and receive way more scrutiny this time around.

(I think Kamala would be a fine nominee and a fine president. I just don't know if she's going to win.)
 
jtb said:
Kamala has been doing nothing but feeding the base red meat and (dare I say it) grandstanding for the past six months. Too many easy answers to hard questions. Completely unimpressed so far.

I think she's trying to have her cake and eat it too, and I don't know what her base is yet, other than "looks Presidential"
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I am stretching really hard to think of an example of Harris grandstanding.
 
NeoXChaos said:
not with black voters he won't. He will be finished by SC like last time.
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That will be an issue for him if he does not improve his approach next time. I think if he has someone with a brain advising him next time they'll point out how he does significantly better with black voters under thirty than older ones. And do whatever he can to drive out younger minorities to vote for him to limit the damage as much as possible.

But I think a crowded field with candidates that might not be enough to cost him if he doesn't. I don't think there is a candidate like Hillary who can beat him by massive margins in SC and also beat him in states like Massachusetts and Iowa too. I don't think he'll be finished at all if he pulls out Iowa + NH.
 
BlastProcessing said:
I am stretching really hard to think of an example of Harris grandstanding.
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Yeah I watched the Senate Committee hearings and didn't think she was ever "grandstanding." She was serious and forceful with her questioning, but didn't think it was over the top.
 
Bonen no Max'd said:
I don't get this, Gillibrand seems like Northeastern liberal with a somewhat cozy relationship with big finance and a much whiter base while Harris is more like a candidate born out of the ascendant coalition in the west. I'd rank Harris as much more likely to win Arizona in the general than Gillibrand.
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Except Gillibrand is from RURAL NY (yes that detail is actually very important) and is willing to use politically incorrect language in a way that appeals to a lot of different people.
 
Just winning for the sake of winning is pointless. I want to win to get good policy outcomes. I also struggle to see a universe where Manchin is the only candidate who can take down Trump.
 
I'm not concerned about grandstanding against Republicans, do that all you want.

I'm more thinking all of her public appearances directed within the party... she doesn't seem particularly interested in bridging the liberal/centrist divide of the party, or grappling with how or why Trump won the election. "We just need to be for single payer!" "We just need to stand up for what we believe in!" It's way too easy. Like I said, it just seems like she's trying to have it both ways without the substance to back it up. (Yet.)

Don't get me wrong, finding a political figure like Obama who can transcend and unite the various wings and groups that make up the Democratic coalition is incredibly rare. But then Kamala's no Obama.
 
jtb said:
I'm not concerned about grandstanding against Republicans, do that all you want.

I'm more thinking all of her public appearances directed within the party... she doesn't seem particularly interested in bridging the liberal/centrist divide of the party, or grappling with how or why Trump won the election. "We just need to be for single payer!" "We just need to stand up for what we believe in!" It's way too easy. Like I said, it just seems like she's trying to have it both ways without the substance to back it up. (Yet.)

Don't get me wrong, finding a political figure like Obama who can transcend and unite the various wings and groups that make up the Democratic coalition is incredibly rare. But then Kamala's no Obama.
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If Democrats had another Obama they could run, they would.
 
jtb said:
I'm not concerned about grandstanding against Republicans, do that all you want.

I'm more thinking all of her public appearances directed within the party... she doesn't seem particularly interested in bridging the liberal/centrist divide of the party, or grappling with how or why Trump won the election. "We just need to be for single payer!" "We just need to stand up for what we believe in!" It's way too easy. Like I said, it just seems like she's trying to have it both ways without the substance to back it up. (Yet.)

Don't get me wrong, finding a political figure like Obama who can transcend and unite the various wings and groups that make up the Democratic coalition is incredibly rare. But then Kamala's no Obama.
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That's why I am leaning towards Gilibrand these days. She is playing into that bridge much better. She can claim she stands with the Resistance because she never voted for any Trump cabinet member. She can appeal to Berniecrats from the fact that she is from Rural NY rather than the Cities. She can appeal to liberals, moderates, and even some conservatives with her liberal political incorrectness.
 
jtb said:
I'm not concerned about grandstanding against Republicans, do that all you want.

I'm more thinking all of her public appearances directed within the party... she doesn't seem particularly interested in bridging the liberal/centrist divide of the party, or grappling with how or why Trump won the election. "We just need to be for single payer!" "We just need to stand up for what we believe in!" It's way too easy. Like I said, it just seems like she's trying to have it both ways without the substance to back it up. (Yet.)

Don't get me wrong, finding a political figure like Obama who can transcend and unite the various wings and groups that make up the Democratic coalition is incredibly rare. But then Kamala's no Obama.
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Harris is for single payer? I haven't seen that anywhere, d'you mind sharing where she said that?
 
My main issue with Harris is that she comes off like she feels as if she is better than everyone around her. Her reaction to her opponent dabbing, some of her talk in the Senate hearings, interviews, etc., are examples. I never got that feeling with Hillary, Obama, Kerry, Gore, Bill Clinton, etc. Maybe running on a national stage would show otherwise. As of now, though, I just haven't seen it. I think that would be a huge problem in a national election.

Then again, Trump just won.
 
The frustrating part of watching Harris run will be trying to figure out which criticisms of her are valid and which are "black bitch eating crackers" and "points docked for _______ while black". "Grandstanding" issue is one example (Black women are always thought to be extra aggressive or sassy even when they aren't). Sigh.
 
Plinko said:
Yeah I watched the Senate Committee hearings and didn't think she was ever "grandstanding." She was serious and forceful with her questioning, but didn't think it was over the top.
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That was my impression as well. Also she focused on asking questions that actually moved important parts of the investigation forward. She often asked boring questions to set things up in the future or asked questions she knew wouldn't be answered to put them on the record.

People like Wyden and King have been doing the grandstanding.
I mean,
I enjoyed their grandstanding, but that's absolutely what it was

johnsmith said:
She said a swear on pod save America
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Burn the witch.
 
Box of Kittens said:
Just winning for the sake of winning is pointless. I want to win to get good policy outcomes. I also struggle to see a universe where Manchin is the only candidate who can take down Trump.
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Not when the incumbent is Donald fucking Trump it isn't.

2020 is not the time for liberals to tear themselves apart looking for the perfect candidate. 2020 is the time to remove a dangerously incompetent man from office by literally any means necessary.
 
Alex Jones is claiming he has 8 hours of interview tapes with Megan Kelly and he's going to show them online before the NBC broadcast.
 
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