-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
- Status
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Interesting.
Aaron Strife
Banned
House control would be a Tossup based on those numbers, which is depressing because in a just world we should just be able to assume the party that wins the generic vote by 7.5 would be in power.
Under these maps we haven't really had a generic ballot Dem landslide yet. 2012 was a small Dem win (which produced 201 seats), 2014 was a big GOP win (188) and last year was a small GOP win (194). If we win by 8 points and Democrats are still in the minority I would love to see pundits try and tell us gerrymandering isn't a problem.
whyamihere
Banned
538 also argues with Data that Dems shouldn't look to Hillary's numbers for 2018.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe-trump-didnt-remake-the-political-map/amp/
tl;dr: Numbers are pointing to more of a 2012 baseline instead of 2016, and maybe Clinton maxed out Dem performance in certain sunbelt districts and that Dems should go after both districts that Hillary underperformed and over performed Obama.
Again, sort of makes it hard to argue to forget the Midwest and that the sunbelt is Destiny.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe-trump-didnt-remake-the-political-map/amp/
tl;dr: Numbers are pointing to more of a 2012 baseline instead of 2016, and maybe Clinton maxed out Dem performance in certain sunbelt districts and that Dems should go after both districts that Hillary underperformed and over performed Obama.
Again, sort of makes it hard to argue to forget the Midwest and that the sunbelt is Destiny.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Probably would agree with that analysis. I think seats like IA-1, NE-2 or ME-2 would still be in Dem hands if Obama got to run for a third term, or we ran Biden or something.
There are certainly opportunities in the sun belt or suburbia but we shouldn't count on it. That sunk us last year.
whyamihere
Banned
Probably opportunities in, say, Martha McSally's seat where Hillary actually won, versus Ossoff.
I feel like I'm having a Mugatu crazy pills moment more often than not these days, but I have to admit feeling surprised his awful Mika tweet blew up THIS much.
He's exactly this repellent and horrible every second of every minute of every day! I'm so often confused by what people choose to react to specifically
I guess we were due for another of these cycles though. Then he'll ~become presidential~ again and we'll repeat this in August
He's exactly this repellent and horrible every second of every minute of every day! I'm so often confused by what people choose to react to specifically
I guess we were due for another of these cycles though. Then he'll ~become presidential~ again and we'll repeat this in August
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
Exactly my thoughts.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm curious what the new maps in Texas are going to look like. That alone could be huge.
TX-23 is still GOP held right? God last year sucked.
Autodidact
Banned
So if Kennedy YAS KING comes through and gives us a good result in the gerrymandering case, we wouldn't have new maps in 2018, right? I assume not, because assembling independent commissions and creating new boundaries takes considerable time
And yes, the Republican barely won TX-23.
And yes, the Republican barely won TX-23.
Really doubt there would be a new map in 2018 because new lines would need to be redrawn all over all while actual campaign for these districts will be going on by then. It would be a clusterfuck and SCOTUS tends to avoid those.
Autodidact
Banned
Except in Bush v. Gore, that definitive ruling that they told us could NEVER EVER be used as precedent ever again, just this one time, okay, guys?
Emergency court orders for new congressional districts worked in North Carolina and Virginia. They could be applied basically everywhere except California and Iowa (more or less the only two fair-districting states).
RastaMentality
Banned
i already forgot about Ossoff. funny how time flies.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Ossoff getting the race to the point of the outcome being essentially random seems okay.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Technically we're doomed anyway.
This crap is being pulled by one of the most incompetent administrations I've ever seen. What's the country going to look like when someone competent attempts it? Barring Trump succeeding this time.
Funkyhamster
Member
Yeah, this is the freaky part. It's astonishing how content congressional Republicans and portions of the public were to let Team Trump attempt such blatantly authoritarian actions.
She, yes
Mika is white.
What it's this voting commission stuff you guys are talking about?
StopMakingSense
Member
well as is they can't do anything. It will just be recommendations to states they they would have to then incorporate in laws.
There are some really nice aspects to the decentralized nature of the vote.
Ehh. The goal is to not give these motherfuckers one inch.
You better believe red states will incorporate their recommendations into law. Most of them anyway. I hope Wolf gets a second term here in PA
skullmuffins
Banned
Remember after the election when Trump was going on about the millions of illegal votes cast for Hillary
that there was never any evidence of because it didn't happen
It's that. And he's stacking it with a bunch of kooks. They're requesting full voter records of every state. End goal is to try and legitimize the voter suppression tactics Republicans love so much and get them implemented nationwide.
whyamihere
Banned
Um, yeah, if the SCOTUS struck down partisan gerrymandering, you'd probably see new maps for 2018, especially in states like North Carolina that have said their maps are partisan, not racial.
SCOTUS strikes down WI leg map as partisan -> Democrats/Dem voters sue in federal court in almost every state -> those courts strike down gerrymandered maps, redraw.
Maybe some courts would hold off post-2018. Others wouldn't. A lot of southern states have argued their maps aren't racial, just partisan.
SCOTUS strikes down WI leg map as partisan -> Democrats/Dem voters sue in federal court in almost every state -> those courts strike down gerrymandered maps, redraw.
Maybe some courts would hold off post-2018. Others wouldn't. A lot of southern states have argued their maps aren't racial, just partisan.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
What do people think the probability of the SCOTUS striking down partisan gerrymandering is.
I'd like to think good considering they SHOULDN'T be partisan, but we'll see.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Y'all aint ready for WOKE Thomas ruling again on gerrymandering.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
It depends on if the partisan districting is breaking any laws or the constitution.
I don't expect them to.
Just racial gerrymandering.
Fenderputty
Banned
Depends entirely on Kennedy and if he agrees with the metric used to measure partisanship, right? I suppose Gorsuch could be a wild card?
Box of Kittens
Banned
I agree with this take. One thing that's going to frustrate us in some of those Sun Belt districts is that voters there tend to like "Generic Republican" a lot more than they like Trump. Until they come to see the Republicans as Trump's party, it would not be surprising to see a lag in Congressional voting as compared to presidential. Now we should still compete there, after all, those districts are trending in our favor and we're likely to pick some off. But there are opportunities in the Midwest and elsewhere as well, and since spending on a district sees diminishing returns fairly rapidly, a broad target list makes a lot of sense strategically.
I've never seen a Youtube video without a bunch of trolls saying dumbass or controversial things for the sake of it.
I mean, this is the whole "50 state" thing- compete everywhere.
The Sunbelt likely is destiny long term, but this stuff does go in fits and starts.
It's the same comments over and over again. I've even found myself trying to explore the user channels to just try and understand their perspective. Most just have saved playlists with seemingly no pattern or consistency.
I mean I can imagine commenting on every single video, rating it, and providing somebody whom you say is fake or in American money.
How much time do you possibly have on your hands?
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
don't mean to brag but I'm pretty sure this means my post-GA-06 take qualifies me to get in on that sweet consultant grift.
Autodidact
Banned
Shit, "WOKE Thomas" got me. Maybe I'm just tired, but I had to stifle laughter. Thank you.
benjipwns
Banned
You've never been on a youtube video with only a handful of views?
If there's not a bigoted comment on this video within 24 hours you're all in trouble.
edit: lmao
Where do you get this from? He's anything but!
Officerrob
Banned
Hyping up Joe and Mika's response to Trump for an hour, lol
Officerrob
Banned
Long 4th of July vacation, seems reasonable
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked