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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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T

thefro

Member
kirblar said:
This feels exactly like Bush's SS plan crashing and burning.
Click to expand...

These things are called the third rail of politics for a reason.

Also Bush's Social Security plan was the beginning of his spin into lame duck status and the 06 landslide for Dems.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
FiggyCal said:
I forgot who exactly said it, but I was watching some Fox News program and one of the hosts had the audacity to say: "Republicans endured Obama for 8 years, Democrats should do the same for Trump" (or something along those lines). I almost had a heart attack.
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Christ, can you even imagine if Schumer had the chutzpah to announce that the Republicans' #1 priority was to make Trump a one-term president?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
kirblar said:
This feels exactly like Bush's SS plan crashing and burning.
Click to expand...

thefro said:
These things are called the third rail of politics for a reason.

Also Bush's Social Security plan was the beginning of his spin into lame duck status and the 06 landslide for Dems.
Click to expand...
The most significant thing Obamacare did for this country is move the overton window on healthcare hard left. This is what professional whiners like Jimmy Dore miss when they complain about how all Obama did was pass nationalized Romneycare. There was not a consensus in 2009 that the government should provide people with healthcare and there only barely is now, but to the extent that there is it's because that's the principle the ACA laid out.

Obama passed a law that is nearly impossible to repeal. Even when it was unpopular the Republicans would still have had to grapple with kicking millions off their insurance, but realistically their last chance at repealing it without blowing up the economy and their own electability was 2012. Now it's firmly established and the cost of repeal would be catastrophic. ACA is the new third rail.

Trump and the GOP could still get rid of it, because they're fucking morons, but there's a pretty good chance they won't be able to. Instead the law will be left in place and the next Democratic president can get a public option, and lowering the age of Medicare, and getting more states on the Medicaid expansion. I still wish Hillary had been able to win to further solidify ACA's place in the economy, but that might not even be necessary.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Long-term maybe it was better that Clinton lost, because she probably would have gone down in 2020 (hard to pull off 16 years of one-party control and Trump would've lowered discourse even more than he has by winning if he had lost instead, firing up the deplorables in a steady boil), and gone down to somebody who was Trump-esque in their politics but more competent, like Tom Cotton or someone, and then we would've had a hell of a time.

If we had to elect a crypto-fascist at some point, let it be someone as incompetent as Trump to thoroughly discredit the ideology and fail to do too much lasting harm.
 
F

FiggyCal

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
The most significant thing Obamacare did for this country is move the overton window on healthcare hard left. This is what professional whiners like Jimmy Dore miss when they complain about how all Obama did was pass nationalized Romneycare. There was not a consensus in 2009 that the government should provide people with healthcare and there only barely is now, but to the extent that there is it's because that's the principle the ACA laid out.

Obama passed a law that is nearly impossible to repeal. Even when it was unpopular the Republicans would still have had to grapple with kicking millions off their insurance, but realistically their last chance at repealing it without blowing up the economy and their own electability was 2012. Now it's firmly established and the cost of repeal would be catastrophic. ACA is the new third rail.

Trump and the GOP could still get rid of it, because they're fucking morons, but there's a pretty good chance they won't be able to. Instead the law will be left in place and the next Democratic president can get a public option, and lowering the age of Medicare, and getting more states on the Medicaid expansion. I still wish Hillary had been able to win to further solidify ACA's place in the economy, but that might not even be necessary.
Click to expand...

Maybe my memory is wrong, but I recall the public option being very popular back in 2009 and that Obama was deadset against it relatively early on. He could have done much more in the way of healthcare. I'm not trying to take away the point you're making, since I don't think whining about it is useful at this point and people like Jimmy Dore obviously don't care if 30 million people lose their healthcare.

Ogodei said:
Long-term maybe it was better that Clinton lost, because she probably would have gone down in 2020 (hard to pull off 16 years of one-party control and Trump would've lowered discourse even more than he has by winning if he had lost instead, firing up the deplorables in a steady boil), and gone down to somebody who was Trump-esque in their politics but more competent, like Tom Cotton or someone, and then we would've had a hell of a time.

If we had to elect a crypto-fascist at some point, let it be someone as incompetent as Trump to thoroughly discredit the ideology and fail to do too much lasting harm.
Click to expand...

I don't think most people need convincing that fascism is a discredited ideology. And those that need to be told that (i.e., Republicans) aren't hearing any of it.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Hypothetical scenario, if the democrats take back the house next year, could they shut down the government to prevent another trump SCJ pick if the situation arises?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
lmao the NYT called Poland's Law and Justice party "center right". THEY ARE FAR RIGHT. CIVIC PLATFORM IS CENTER RIGHT, FREE MARKET PARTY.
 
S

Snake

Member
FiggyCal said:
Maybe my memory is wrong, but I recall the public option being very popular back in 2009 and that Obama was deadset against it relatively early on. He could have done much more in the way of healthcare. I'm not trying to take away the point you're making, since I don't think whining about it is useful at this point and people like Jimmy Dore obviously don't care if 30 million people lose their healthcare.
Click to expand...

Your memory is probably wrong, since you likely never would have even heard of the term "public option" as a popularized concept if Obama had not campaigned for it the way he did in 2008.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
FiggyCal said:
Maybe my memory is wrong, but I recall the public option being very popular back in 2009 and that Obama was deadset against it relatively early on. He could have done much more in the way of healthcare. I'm not trying to take away the point you're making, since I don't think whining about it is useful at this point and people like Jimmy Dore obviously don't care if 30 million people lose their healthcare.
Click to expand...
The public option polled well but I don't think it had the votes in the Senate. Same with expanding Medicare. Good ideas that were held back by Senators who were unfortunately bought and sold. Notably, many of them (Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln, Baucus, Dodd) are gone now.

It was important to get any form of ACA passed to establish the basis for any future reform. A public option in 2009 was viewed as the ideal - now I'd expect it at a bare minimum from any future Dem proposal. It's an easier sell with insurance companies as opposed to then when they would have had to accept it as part of a much broader law they already hated and barely tolerated.

As for Obama, I'm not sure where you're getting that he was "deadset against it." It was a part of his original proposal and it even ended up as a part of the House bill. Perhaps this is too optimistic but had Brown not won the Massachusetts Senate seat, I think we might have gotten a form of the public option through the House-Senate conference bill.

Frankly I don't get where the "Obama could have done more on healthcare" sentiment comes from when he's done more on that issue than any president since LBJ and several tried and failed to get something done in the interim (Nixon, Clinton) because healthcare is actually really hard to legislate and reform!

ArkhamFantasy said:
Hypothetical scenario, if the democrats take back the house next year, could they shut down the government to prevent another trump SCJ pick if the situation arises?
Click to expand...
The House can't do anything about SCOTUS picks.

The Senate can though, and we'd need to pick up three seats in a year where the GOP only holds eight and we have a bunch of vulnerable incumbents. I don't think it's super likely.
 
F

FiggyCal

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
The public option polled well but I don't think it had the votes in the Senate. Same with expanding Medicare. Good ideas that were held back by Senators who were unfortunately bought and sold. Notably, many of them (Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln, Baucus, Dodd) are gone now.

It was important to get any form of ACA passed to establish the basis for any future reform. A public option in 2009 was viewed as the ideal - now I'd expect it at a bare minimum from any future Dem proposal. It's an easier sell with insurance companies as opposed to then when they would have had to accept it as part of a much broader law they already hated and barely tolerated.

As for Obama, I'm not sure where you're getting that he was "deadset against it." It was a part of his original proposal and it even ended up as a part of the House bill. Perhaps this is too optimistic but had Brown not won the Massachusetts Senate seat, I think we might have gotten a form of the public option through the House-Senate conference bill.

Frankly I don't get where the "Obama could have done more on healthcare" sentiment comes from when he's done more on that issue than any president since LBJ.


The House can't do anything about SCOTUS picks.

The Senate can though, and we'd need to pick up three seats in a year where the GOP only holds eight and we have a bunch of vulnerable incumbents. I don't think it's super likely.
Click to expand...

Okay then. I really did just get it wrong. Thanks.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Obama campaigned against the mandate then included it anyway. Clinton included it in '08.

Lesson: Lie to the know-nothings.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Joe Lieberman killed the public option. It's not exactly a big secret, it'd been talked about at length. It's mentioned on Pod save America every week. He was the 60th vote they needed to pass the public option, and he refused thanks to his friends in the insurance industry.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Aaron Strife said:
The Senate can though, and we'd need to pick up three seats in a year where the GOP only holds eight and we have a bunch of vulnerable incumbents. I don't think it's super likely.
Click to expand...

If a couple of people like Flynn are indicted, it's unlikely but possible.
If several people of the Trump administration are indicted, I think it's possible.
If Mueller recommends Trump be impeached, or anyone directly related to him are indicted, I'd say it's likely.

Maledict said:
Joe Lieberman killed the public option. It's not exactly a big secret, it'd been talked about at length. It's mentioned on Pod save America every week. He was the 60th vote they needed to pass the public option, and he refused thanks to his friends in the insurance industry.
Click to expand...

Well, that, and he is a scumbag.
 
N

nature boy

Member
DEO8v8-WAAEVoYM.jpg


#winning
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Maledict said:
Joe Lieberman killed the public option. It's not exactly a big secret, it'd been talked about at length. It's mentioned on Pod save America every week. He was the 60th vote they needed to pass the public option, and he refused thanks to his friends in the insurance industry.
Click to expand...

Not just Lieberman. Ben Nelson and Bayh were also both against it. Public option just wasn't happening in 2009.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
whyamihere said:
lmao the NYT called Poland's Law and Justice party "center right". THEY ARE FAR RIGHT. CIVIC PLATFORM IS CENTER RIGHT, FREE MARKET PARTY.
Click to expand...

Arguably you could say Polish politics are on the Populist-Capitalist axis instead of a left-right axis due to the lack of a viable left party, sort of similar to where America was from the 1890s through the 1940s (before Truman started getting bold about telling racists to suck it). Of course, it was more complex because the Democrats had a lot of true leftists, but the mix of progressive and racist meant it was a populist party on the whole.
 
G

Geist-

Member
Looking for some books to increase my political awareness, anyone have an essential reading list? Let's pretend I've never read non-fiction outside of textbooks.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Lieberman is the worst, but yeah, I wish leadership would have told him to stuff it and killed the filibuster for the public option -- just because I hate Lieberman and it would have been oh so satisfying, plus, yknow, public option.

Of course, would Roberts have upheld it? I am not so sure. He made the Medicaid expansion optional for fuck's sake. And you damn well know the GOP would have questioned the validity of a public option and taken it to the SCOTUS.

Safest option would have been national Medicaid buy in. Would have been more SCOTUS proof imo.

But yeah, if Roberts didn't like it then the Democrats would have essentially killed the filibuster for nothing and it would have been a huge backfire, it could have even hurt his (Obama's) re-election chances.

Just saying. The ACA has survived what at first glance would have looked like impossible odds, from NFIB v. Sebelius to King v. Burwell to Donald fucking Trump and we still aren't out of the woods yet. Still, I am amazed this law continues to be alive and kicking.
 
D

dramatis

Member
I feel sorry for the people who have to translate Trump into other languages.

Supposedly in Russia they straight up just use a smart guy voiceover without any of the dumb stuff so Trump sounds vaguely intelligent.

NPR nicely compiled a rough list of who's on Mueller's team.
Here are some of the attorneys Mueller has hired:

Zainab Ahmad, a top national security prosecutor on detail from U.S. Attorney's Office in the Eastern District of New York.

Rush Atkinson, an attorney on detail from the Criminal Division's Fraud Section at the Department of Justice.

Michael Dreeben, an appellate attorney on detail from the Office of the Solicitor General, described by former colleagues as one of the brightest criminal law experts of the past two generations.

Andrew Goldstein, a public corruption prosecutor on detail from the U.S. Attorney's Office in the Southern District of New York.

Adam Jed, an appellate attorney on detail from DOJ's Civil Division.

Lisa Page, an attorney on detail from the FBI's Office of the General Counsel and a former trial attorney with the Criminal Division's Organized Crime and Gang Section.

Elizabeth Prelogar, an appellate attorney on detail from the Office of the Solicitor General.

James Quarles, a former partner at WilmerHale and a former assistant special prosecutor for the Watergate Special Prosecution Force.

Jeannie Rhee, a former partner at WilmerHale who has served in the Office of Legal Counsel at DOJ and as an assistant U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia.

Brandon Van Grack, an attorney on detail from the Justice Department's National Security Division.

Andrew Weissmann, who is on detail from the Criminal Division's Fraud Section and who has served as general counsel at the FBI and as an assistant U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of New York.

Aaron Zebley, a former partner at WilmerHale who has previously served with Mueller at the FBI and has served as an assistant U.S. attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia.

Aaron Zelinsky, an attorney on detail from the U.S. Attorney's Office in the District of Maryland.
Click to expand...
 
D

Diablos

Member
James Quarles gets me every time. Not sure what else can convey "yes, this is just as big if not bigger than Watergate and these people are not fucking around" any better than him.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
NPR list: Here are some of the attorneys Mueller has hired:



Andrew Weissmann, who is on detail from the Criminal Division's Fraud Section and who has served as general counsel at the FBI and as an assistant U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of New York.

Mortimer P. Goldsplasch, accomplished former urologist and an expert in international sex worker activity and a former partner at Rusk Hilton Bedwetter.

Aaron Zebley, a former partner at WilmerHale who has previously served with Mueller at the FBI and has served as an assistant U.S. attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia.

.
Click to expand...

No doubt some heavy hitters in here but some of them are confusingly obtuse. Can't figure out how some of them fit into the investigation.
 
H

Host Samurai

Member
Ogodei said:
Long-term maybe it was better that Clinton lost, because she probably would have gone down in 2020 (hard to pull off 16 years of one-party control and Trump would've lowered discourse even more than he has by winning if he had lost instead, firing up the deplorables in a steady boil), and gone down to somebody who was Trump-esque in their politics but more competent, like Tom Cotton or someone, and then we would've had a hell of a time.

If we had to elect a crypto-fascist at some point, let it be someone as incompetent as Trump to thoroughly discredit the ideology and fail to do too much lasting harm.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. Something like this was bound to happen and the country has never dealt with anything like this before in its history with the lack of transparency somebody like Trump has shown. This will go down in the history books as something we will learn from. Hopefully he gets out soon or the dems impeach him if they win back power in 2018 so that damage can be reversed.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
chadskin said:
oppo droppo

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/08/us/politics/trump-russia-kushner-manafort.html
Click to expand...


This is significant. This is one they decided to keep secret even while they were playing hindsight catch-up on their other Russian disclosures and this one is more direct than Flynn and Manafort, if a bit fuzzier.

And it was about adoption?! Sure it was because that's been a pivotal part of your platform, bringing foreigners IN. They basically can't help acting suspicious.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Stinkles said:
This is significant. This is one they decided to keep secret even while they were playing hindsight catch-up on their other Russian disclosures and this one is more direct than Flynn and Manafort, if a bit fuzzier.

And it was about adoption?! Sure it was because that's been a pivotal part of your platform, bringing foreigners IN. They basically can't help acting suspicious.
Click to expand...
"adoption"
The Russian lawyer invited to the Trump Tower meeting, Natalia Veselnitskaya, is best known for mounting a multipronged attack against the Magnitsky Act, an American law that blacklists suspected Russian human rights abusers. The law so enraged Mr. Putin that he retaliated by halting American adoptions of Russian children.

The adoption impasse is a frequently used talking point for opponents of the Magnitsky Act. Ms. Veselnitskaya's campaign against the law has also included attempts to discredit its namesake, Sergei L. Magnitsky, a lawyer and auditor who died in a Russian prison in 2009 after exposing one of the biggest corruption scandals during Mr. Putin's rule.
Click to expand...
aka a Russian talking point regarding sanctions they're trying to get lifted.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Host Samurai said:
I agree with this. Something like this was bound to happen and the country has never dealt with anything like this before in its history with the lack of transparency somebody like Trump has shown. This will go down in the history books as something we will learn from. Hopefully he gets out soon or the dems impeach him if they win back power in 2018 so that damage can be reversed.
Click to expand...
There was a (maybe ironic?) take I saw after the election - God wanted Obama to be president. And then he wanted Democrats to have redistricting power over the 2020 maps.

Like it really sucks having to deal with fucking President Trump (count me among those who waits an extra second to wake up knowing what the headlines will look like), but what if the trade-off is the next Dem president isn't shackled by a Congress that's been gerrymandered to hell by the opposition? I can only imagine what Obama's presidency would have looked like had Democrats held the House for another 2, 4, 6 years. That's not to say fair maps are any guarantee of a Dem trifecta, but it would certainly go a long way, and even a Republican majority would be far more dependent on swing seats than they are now.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
It'd be nice to look at a potential D+10 wave not as toss up, in a world without 2010 districts

How would anyone even justify a massive wave like that, but without the Democrats gaining control anywhere, if it happens
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
It'd be nice to look at a potential D+10 wave not as toss up, in a world without 2010 districts

How would anyone even justify a massive wave like that, but without the Democrats gaining control anywhere, if it happens
Click to expand...

Democrats lose in heavily gerrymandered environment: "It's the will of the people and libtards should stop crying."

Republicans lose in heavily gerrymandered environment: "The Democrats have abolished democracy and created a one-party state."
 
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