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[Deuce Deuce]

NYT dropped the next oppo and holy damn.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-russia-email-candidacy.html?_r=0

Muhuhahaha!

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Now the last bit of this puzzle piece is finding out the oppo Jr got was Podesta's emails. Would line up where Stone started tweeting about it too.

 

[Mizerman]

Nah, it's just part of McConnell's super secret plan to distract us while he takes away healthcare

McConnell's smile will do the rest.

Sanders didn't vote for the Iraq War. That was good. That doesn't change the fact that his FP chops were SEVERELY LACKING. Are we pretending they weren't?

Considering how much of Sanders positions wound up in Clinton's platform, what positions were left that both didn't make in and were realistically feasible in the near term? I'm always wary of politicians promising the moon (see how well it is working for Trump).

This. Hell, I was guilty of this back in 2008 with Obama (to an extent).

 

[whyamihere]

General thoughts on the subject, not intended as a reply to any person in particular.

Obviously once Clinton won the primaries she had to be the nominee. Superdelegates overturning the results would be a slap in the face to key Democratic constituencies, particularly black voters.

Her platform was mostly good but also pretty damn uninspiring. I get that she's a wonk and that Congress was going to be a problem, but I still can't think of one thing she ran on that could reasonably be called a big idea.

It also didn't help that she hardly ran on policy at all, instead focusing on a "Trump is bad" message. Negative campaigning works, but it can't be all you do, because then people are going to feel like they're being told to vote for you by default.

Clinton was always going to have credibility issues due to literally decades of baggage. Some of that came from Bill's administration (crime bill, welfare), some from her time in the Senate (Iraq War), and, yes, a bunch from the Republican Hate Machine. Whatever context much of that baggage has, it was a real problem for the campaign.

Should young left-leaning voters who stayed home or voted third party have voted for Clinton despite whatever problems they had with her? Of course! I think she would have been a good president and seriously, the alternative was Trump. And I have always argued (and stand by) the notion that as an individual what you can control is your vote and there's no use complaining about how you can't vote for the perfect candidate. At the same time, the party's job is to put forward a candidate people want to vote for, and there's no use on their part of complaining about how people won't vote for them.

This post is Good.

 

[PBY]

This post is Good.

Yup, well said.

 

[Autodidact]

WHERE IS TIFFANY

As far away from this shitshow as possible.

Malignant narcissists will sell out their kids on a dime. I'd almost feel bad for Jr. if not for his being a treasonous piece of shit.

Is Beautiful White Moderating Influence Ivanka truly safe?

 

[RustyNails]

This is outright evidence of collusion unlike what we've seen before, isn't it?

I heard something on NPR that bummed me out, that there is legally no statute on "collusion" or "coordination" in federal election laws. The person from lawfareblog was a total debbie downer and made it seem like there is no big prosecution coming, other than violation of cybersecurity acts, may be conspiracy.

However I wanted to hear if they can be tried for treason but the host never asked it.

 

[The Technomancer]

Sanders didn't vote for the Iraq War. That was good. That doesn't change the fact that his FP chops were SEVERELY LACKING. Are we pretending they weren't?

Considering how much of Sanders positions wound up in Clinton's platform, what positions were left that both didn't make in and were realistically feasible in the near term? I'm always wary of politicians promising the moon (see how well it is working for Trump).

I mean I've shared the anecdote of going from Sanders supporter (and being the kind of person who was like "We don't need another Clinton in the White House") to "oh alright they'd both be fine" to actually sort of being a Sanders opponent after I found some of his answers about his education plan to be, IMO, practically deceptive

 

[Teggy]

Manafort, jr and Kushner were in this meeting and we're supposed to believe trump never knew about it?

 

[Random Human]

The most beautiful twist to this new story would be if it's happening because Kushner started talking.

Let all these rats turn on each other.

 

[kirblar]

Do you think that Bernie would've done worse than Hillary with the youth vote.

I don't know the answer! https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/11/21/how-millennials-voted/

NOTE: Following each election, CIRCLE conducts a preliminary youth turnout estimate. In the spring following an election year, the Census Current Population Survey (CPS) includes youth voting data. At this point, we have no reason to believe that young adult turnout declined in 2016 from its 2012 level.

I do not think it's a clear "Yes." That 60->55 (seen here) can be attributed to the compositional changes of that group, who are behaving in a wildly contradictory manner (going more independent at the same time the age cohort is turning more liberal.)

I'm much more confident in my belief that Dems take a greater hit w/ minorities from Obama->Sanders than they did w/ Obama->Clinton, likely offsetting any potential gains from the mercurial youth vote. I'm also much more confident we straight up win with a better candidate than Clinton (say, even a marginal upgrade w/ Biden), who was super-terrible and in that position for a bunch of reasons that should never repeat themselves in our lifetime!.

 

[PBY]

I heard something on NPR that bummed me out, that there is legally no statute on "collusion" or "coordination" in federal election laws. The person from lawfareblog was a total debbie downer and made it seem like there is no big prosecution coming, other than violation of cybersecurity acts, may be conspiracy.

However I wanted to hear if they can be tried for treason but the host never asked it.

Yup. Its not a "criminal act" per se; its a political crime, that requires political actors to do something.

 

[Diablos]

How amazing would it be if Trump and his family were taken down by some damn e-mails?

It's called poetic justice

 

[Box of Kittens]

I think the youth vote tbh, but I also think that cutting into Clinton's shitty rural numbers is necessary given the Senate and Electoral College.

Yup. We don't need to win the rural vote or even be that close in the grand scheme of things. We just can't afford to write it off so completely that we get absolutely crushed.

 

[whyamihere]

I don't know the answer!

k, this is really silly and I think you know that. Bernie consistently outperformed Clinton against Trump in polling with the youth vote. He outperformed Clinton in the primaries with the youth vote. A extremely large part of the youth vote went to the polls and then didn't vote for Hillary and instead voted for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

If you're actually saying that you don't know if Bernie would've done better than Hillary with the youth vote, you're being obtuse because you really hate Bernie and don't want to admit that maybe he had some electoral viability with certain demographics.

 

[kirblar]

k, this is really silly and I think you know that. Bernie consistently outperformed Clinton against Trump in polling with the youth vote. He outperformed Clinton in the primaries with the youth vote. A extremely large part of the youth vote went to the polls and then didn't vote for Hillary and instead voted for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

If you're actually saying that you don't know if Bernie would've done better than Hillary with the youth vote, you're being obtuse because you really hate Bernie and don't want to admit that maybe he had some electoral viability.

I don't, because I don't believe that Sanders actually sustains through an election cycle of attacks and maintains that level of support in general.

I also don't think youth voting patterns have much to do with electoral viability.

Clinton having a charisma problem was the biggest problem, and that's a far bigger issue than just the youth vote.

 

[Crocodile]

Sanders foreign policy wasn't great but Hillary's foreign policy was absurdly awful, support for the brutal apartheid in Israel, eagerness to get involved in another war in the Middle East. She views Kissinger's worldview positively!

Sanders was flawed but Hillary's foreign policy is her absolute worst quality and she was the absolute worst possible foreign policy candidate for a left party.

As I said, I think its fair to critique Clinton on her FP past. But like Sanders didn't really have a FP doctrine or any experience and Trump was an idiot with stupid isolationist bullshit. If FP was the deciding factor in your vote, Clinton is still the best choice of out that group (she HAS actually done good on the world stage). Maybe that's a depressing notion but its like sadly true.

 

[PBY]

As I said, I think its fair to critique Clinton on her FP past. But like Sanders didn't really have a FP doctrine or any experience and Trump was an idiot with stupid isolationist bullshit. If FP was the deciding factor in your vote, Clinton is still the best choice of out that group (she HAS actually good on the world stage). Maybe that's a depressing notion but its like sadly true.

I kind of agree, but I can't hold it against anyone who thinks that voting for the war in Iraq is disqualifying.

 

[whyamihere]

I don't, because I don't believe that Sanders actually sustains through an election cycle of attacks and maintains that level of support in general.

I also don't think youth voting patterns have much to do with electoral viability.

Clinton having a charisma problem was the biggest problem, and that's a far bigger issue than just the youth vote.

I edited for clarity on electoral viability (I'm specifically talking about the youth vote, which is why I'm not replying to your other points that aren't about the youth vote).

You can think that. Others do (DWS thinks it!). There is some truth there. But obviously Bernie tapped into the youth vote at far higher margins than Hillary did in the primary. I think it's likely that would've continued in the GE. And that's probably a safe assumption.

If you don't want to admit a nice thing about Bernie, I get it. But I also think you're learning all the wrong lessons from 2016.

 

[PBY]

I don't, because I don't believe that Sanders actually sustains through an election cycle of attacks and maintains that level of support in general.

I also don't think youth voting patterns have much to do with electoral viability.

Clinton having a charisma problem was the biggest problem, and that's a far bigger issue than just the youth vote.

You portray the youth as easily convinced, bumbling fools - they want something to vote for, not just charisma. The actual policies would have made a difference.

But also - DTJ LOL.

 

[whyamihere]

As I said, I think its fair to critique Clinton on her FP past. But like Sanders didn't really have a FP doctrine or any experience and Trump was an idiot with stupid isolationist bullshit. If FP was the deciding factor in your vote, Clinton is still the best choice of out that group (she HAS actually good on the world stage). Maybe that's a depressing notion but its like sadly true.

I sort of agree with this and it's sad that from a FP angle these were our two choices.

 

[Holmes]

I thought this was going to be a text to confirm my date tonight but it's better.

lmao perfect background.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Like Kirblar I'm still salty about 2000. I get that the people who were youth then are very much not youth now but the disaffection that consistently results in lower youth turnout going back consistently until at least 1964 could quite possible have altered two of the most pivotal elections in the history of the country. I don't think youth vote cost us either of those elections but if we had our shit together history could be different

The thing about close elections is that there are many things you could argue cost the election, in the sense that you change any one of them and the outcome is different. 2016 came down to less than 70K votes in WI, MI, and PA. Clinton's weaknesses, the Comey letter, media coverage, voter ID laws; they all loom large.

Now change that to 537 votes in FL and all of that gets magnified. Gore's campaign, the Nader effect, voter purges, misaligned ballots in Palm Beach County. There are so many things you can point to as "the" reason Bush became president.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

As I said, I think its fair to critique Clinton on her FP past. But like Sanders didn't really have a FP doctrine or any experience and Trump was an idiot with stupid isolationist bullshit. If FP was the deciding factor in your vote, Clinton is still the best choice of out that group (she HAS actually good on the world stage). Maybe that's a depressing notion but its like sadly true.

Hillary's foreign policy is actually monstrous, she has consistently pushed for disastrous interventions that have ruined the lives of people at home and abroad. Bernie wasn't an "expert" but he wasn't big enough of a moron to support the most disastrous foreign policy decision of the past 30 years and wasn't advocating to start what would be another disastrous war in Syria. Bernie was willing to criticize an apartheid regime that Hillary had nothing but support for.

tbh like kind of upset right now, Hillary was the worst possible Democratic candidate foreign policy wise.

like honestly supporting the Iraq War should immediately disqualify you from Democratic leadership, instead the only major Democrats who opposed it since it started are Obama and Pelosi

 

[kirblar]

You portray the youth as easily convinced, bumbling fools - they want something to vote for, not just charisma. The actual policies would have made a difference.

But also - DTJ LOL.

I've seen the "both sides" meme emerge in 2 elections 16 years apart w/ very similar circumstances, followed by an incompetent Republican being elected both times.

It's not just the "young", people are bumbling fools. This just seems to be a pattern of behavior we're going to keep seeing over and over and over because just like w/ anti-Vaxxers, they don't understand the importance of vigilance and that the threat is still right there, and they don't understand the consequences till their husband's being deported or their kid's dead from Measles.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

whyamihere, I think you're really misinterpreting what kirblar said.
Recap:

kirblar says clinton losing doesn't guarantee sanders win

Clinton losing doesn't mean that nominating Sanders would have achieved a better outcome!

you then say sanders would have done better with the youth vote, which was what your point was primarily I think

So, you think that Sanders would have done worse than Clinton with the youth vote?

kirblar says that, no, he's talking about the vote totals, which even if sanders got more youth vote might have driven down minority vote or driven up republican turnout.

I think he would have done worse than Clinton in the vote vote. Any potential gains from increased youth turnout are probably counteracted elsewhere, because the populist protectionist is going to have a hard time matching up against the racist populist protectionist.

Then you ask him the same thing because you think it's weird he doesn't see this.

Do you think that Bernie would've done worse than Hillary with the youth vote.

And here he says he doesn't know, but that it doesn't matter because the other factors are more confounding.

I do not think it's a clear "Yes." That 60->55 (seen here) can be attributed to the compositional changes of that group, who are behaving in a wildly contradictory manner (going more independent at the same time the age cohort is turning more liberal.)

I'm much more confident in my belief that Dems take a greater hit w/ minorities from Obama->Sanders than they did w/ Obama->Clinton, likely offsetting any potential gains from the mercurial youth vote. I'm also much more confident we straight up win with a better candidate than Clinton (say, even a marginal upgrade w/ Biden), who was super-terrible and in that position for a bunch of reasons that should never repeat themselves in our lifetime!.

And then you insult him because he disagrees with your warrant:

If you're actually saying that you don't know if Bernie would've done better than Hillary with the youth vote, you're being obtuse because you really hate Bernie and don't want to admit that maybe he had some electoral viability with certain demographics.

That's pretty unfair and you know he's smarter than that. I also disagree with your warrant. I think you're saying that Bernie would have probably beaten Hillary in the popular vote because he would have had more youth votes. And even if you're not saying that, you're at least saying we should learn from Bernie about how to get millenials. But I'm not sure that there are lessons to learn, or that we should be arrogant enough to copy and paste formulas. For instance, maybe Bernie during a general election causes us to cleavage pro business democrats or wealthy donors that are important for downballot spending. Also, maybe Bernie was only a good candidate as a foil for Clinton; Clinton sucks, but if it were Obama vs. Sanders, Obama probably has a better formula here. I don't know.

Anyway kirblar was just saying a thing, no need to be nasty.

 

[PBY]

I've seen the "both sides" meme emerge in 2 elections 16 years apart w/ very similar circumstances, followed by an incompetent Republican being elected both times.

It's not just the "young", people are bumbling fools. This just seems to be a pattern of behavior we're going to keep seeing over and over and over because just like w/ anti-Vaxxers, they don't understand the importance of vigilance and that the threat is still right there, and they don't understand the consequences till their husband's being deported or their kid's dead from Measles.

Sure - and you can keep shitting on them, and talking down to them - but they won't come out unless you give them something to vote for. That's just the fact of the matter.

 

[Deuce Deuce]

Sanders did vote for AUMF against terrorists in 2001 which has been used as justification for some atrocities in the Middle East. So there's some blemish there.

But Iraq was more cut and dry obviously.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Sanders did vote for AUMF against terrorists in 2001 which has been used as justification for some atrocities in the Middle East. So there's some blemish there.

But Iraq was more cut and dry obviously.

yeah Sanders is definitely not perfect or even great, but Hillary is absolutely terrible on foreign policy

Barbara Lee is much better for her courage though, of course.

 

[whyamihere]

whyamihere, I think you're really misinterpreting what kirblar said.
Recap:

kirblar says clinton losing doesn't guarantee sanders win


you then say sanders would have done better with the youth vote, which was what your point was primarily I think


kirblar says that, no, he's talking about the vote totals, which even if sanders got more youth vote might have driven down minority vote or driven up republican turnout.


Then you ask him the same thing because you think it's weird he doesn't see this.


And here he says he doesn't know, but that it doesn't matter because the other factors are more confounding.


And then you insult him because he disagrees with your warrant:


That's pretty unfair and you know he's smarter than that.

We're not talking about anything else than the youth vote.

Now, again, as I've said, I do not have an opinion on who would've won the election if it was Trump v Bernie. But I do think Bernie would've done better than Hillary with the youth vote, which is what we're discussing.

Trying to pivot to talk about the minority vote isn't pertinent unless were talking about the minority youth vote.

 

[sc0la]

Don Jr. is over the barrel right now and you mofos are still talking about the primaries. PoliGAF is the best/worst 😂

Edit: also if this string of stories did originate from sources in the White House vs congress and the IC I'm betting it's pence loyalists trying to accelerate resignation/impeachment timeline.

 

[neurosisxeno]

yeah Sanders is definitely not perfect or even great, but Hillary is absolutely terrible on foreign policy

Barbara Lee is much better for her courage though, of course.

Clinton was great as SoS, and had connections with foreign leaders that are invaluable for a President to have. There's a reason Putin hated the idea of her as President and threatened war with the United States if she was elected...

 

[jtb]

Man, the Franken interview on PSA today is so cringey. Don't meet your heroes, folks. Also think it seems pretty obvious he's not interested in running for President.

(to clarify, cringey for the PSA folks, not for Franken... who is still Franken)

 

[chadskin]

Don Jr. is over the barrel right now and you mofos are still talking about the primaries. PoliGAF is the best/worst 😂

Edit: also if this string of stories did originate from sources in the White House vs congress and the IC I'm betting it's pence loyalists trying to accelerate resignation/impeachment timeline.

Does Pence have loyalists in the WH? The globalists?

 

[PBY]

Man, the Franken interview on PSA today is so cringey. Don't meet your heroes, folks. Also think it seems pretty obvious he's not interested in running for President.

(to clarify, cringey for the PSA folks, not for Franken... who is still Franken)

I was wondering if anyone listened. Agree on all counts; PSA has kinda gone down hill for me, the Thurs pod is still great though.

 

[Crocodile]

Hillary's foreign policy is actually monstrous, she has consistently pushed for disastrous interventions that have ruined the lives of people at home and abroad. Bernie wasn't an "expert" but he wasn't big enough of a moron to support the most disastrous foreign policy decision of the past 30 years and wasn't advocating to start what would be another disastrous war in Syria. Bernie was willing to criticize an apartheid regime that Hillary had nothing but support for.

tbh like kind of upset right now, Hillary was the worst possible Democratic candidate foreign policy wise.

like honestly supporting the Iraq War should immediately disqualify you from Democratic leadership, instead the only major Democrats who opposed it since it started are Obama and Pelosi

I mean I understand your frustrations but like........Clinton was STILL the best FP choice in that election. If FP is your big deciding factor then this is just a "hold your nose" election for you.

Clinton was great as SoS, and had connections with foreign leaders that are invaluable for a President to have. There's a reason Putin hated the idea of her as President and threatened war with the United States if she was elected...

Also this^

Sure - and you can keep shitting on them, and talking down to them - but they won't come out unless you give them something to vote for. That's just the fact of the matter.

FWIW, and I stress this again, kirblar isn't trying to get elected nor does he work on a campaign. Someone working on a campaign may still feel that way but, if they are good, would still work to sincerely win over the youth vote.

 

[VendettaRed07]

I've seen the "both sides" meme emerge in 2 elections 16 years apart w/ very similar circumstances, followed by an incompetent Republican being elected both times.

It's not just the "young", people are bumbling fools. This just seems to be a pattern of behavior we're going to keep seeing over and over and over because just like w/ anti-Vaxxers, they don't understand the importance of vigilance and that the threat is still right there, and they don't understand the consequences till their husband's being deported or their kid's dead from Measles.

Both 2000 and 2016 featured uninspiring candidates who lacked the charisma of their predecessors and were unable to get out a convincing and exciting message. Made terrible VP picks that were attempts to appeal to moderates rather than the liberal base (Kane/Lieberman) and an opponent who undercut them by figuring out how to control the narrative.

They both are more to blame for making terrible choices than youth voters for not voting for them.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Clinton was great as SoS, and had connections with foreign leaders that are invaluable for a President to have. There's a reason Putin hated the idea of her as President and threatened war with the United States if she was elected...

I imagine dead Yemeni and Syrian children would be incredibly glad to know that she had connections with world leaders and would look very Good and Presidential while launching missiles and invading their land to only further devastate them.

I mean I understand your frustrations but like........Clinton was STILL the best FP choice in that election. If FP is your big deciding factor then this is just a "hold your nose" election for you.



FWIW, and I stress this again, kirblar isn't trying to get elected nor does he work on a campaign. Someone working on a campaign may still feel that way but, if they are good, would still work to sincerely win over the youth vote.

I mean, no, Clinton was campaigning on starting a war and Bernie was opposed to that! I think not starting another disastrous war actually makes him the morally superior choice on foreign policy.

 

[kirblar]

Sure - and you can keep shitting on them, and talking down to them - but they won't come out unless you give them something to vote for. That's just the fact of the matter.

But what they want to vote for is anti-authoritarian in nature, and after 8 years of an administration, the candidate will likely be endorsed by the Admin (unless the Admin is in the toilet, at which point you're fucked anyway.)

I could not vote in 2000. I was 16. But I was very much paying attention at the time. South Park had the "both sides" meme. And then Bush sent us to war.

16 years later, the young people don't remember 2000. (hell, South Park resurrected the "both sides" thing on the show in order to point out how fucking wrong it was in this election cycle! It didn't work!)

16 years from now, the young people won't remember 2016. And they still won't believe you when you tell them that "no, both sides are not the same!"

 

[Random Human]

Does Pence have loyalists in the WH? The globalists?

I'd imagine Pence would have a decent-sized staff who might know about some of what's going on.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Does Pence have loyalists in the WH? The globalists?

Maybe its just random white house employee's who hate trump because he's making their lives miserable.

 

[whyamihere]

I imagine dead Yemeni and Syrian children would be incredibly glad to know that she had connections with world leaders and would look very Good and Presidential while launching missiles and invading their land to only further devastate them.

I mean, no, Clinton was campaigning on starting a war and Bernie was opposed to that! I think not starting another disastrous war actually makes him the morally superior choice on foreign policy.

Even from an electoral POV, her votes also allowed Trump to tact to the left of her on interventionism!

 

[jtb]

Of course we should appeal to them with better messaging/policy/etc., but at the end of the day, voters have agency.

The unspoken truth is that young voters simply have the poorest understanding of the electoral process, because they have the least exposure of participating in the process, using gov. programs, etc.

Why do old people vote? Because they understand innately what they want from the government and how they're going to get it.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I dont understand why Jr is getting singled out as the guy thats in big trouble when Kushner and Manafort were there too. Can someone explain?

 

[GrapeApes]

Don Jr. is over the barrel right now and you mofos are still talking about the primaries. PoliGAF is the best/worst 😂

Edit: also if this string of stories did originate from sources in the White House vs congress and the IC I'm betting it's pence loyalists trying to accelerate resignation/impeachment timeline.

The problem is Trump himself isn't implicated. He's coming out fine so far. He can say I didn't know what my idiot son was doing. It's bullshit but he can still deny right now.

 

[The Technomancer]

Of course we should appeal to them with better messaging/policy/etc., but at the end of the day, voters have agency.

The unspoken truth is that young voters simply have the poorest understanding of the electoral process, because they have the least exposure of participating in the process, using gov. programs, etc.

Why do old people vote? Because they understand innately what they want from the government and how they're going to get it.

.

 

[kirblar]

I dont understand why Jr is getting singled out as the guy thats in big trouble when Kushner and Manafort were there too. Can someone explain?

Because the other two are already in big trouble.

 

[whyamihere]

Where is Tiffany.

 

[PBY]

https://twitter.com/ReaganBattalion/status/884593142321881088

fuck

 

[Random Human]

Because the other two are already in big trouble.

And he seems like the dumbest of the three, which is saying something.