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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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C

cartoon_soldier

Member
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/19/ossoff-handel-georgia-special-democrats-239698

According to Democrats close to the contest, the high early voting turnout has rendered Tuesday’s result less predictable than expected. And that unpredictability has party leaders — stung by criticism from liberal activists for not spending enough money on earlier special elections this year in Kansas and Montana — urging activists not to be disappointed by a tight race that ends in defeat.

Their concern is that anything less than victory could dampen the party’s torrid energy and cash flow, with the next round of House races still nearly a year-and-a-half away.
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In the case of GA-6, the high EV benefits Handel. Tomorrow will be very interesting.
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
Giant shitbag Jason Chaffetz decides to grow a spine and shit all over Trump and Sessions as he escapes his position of House Oversight Chairman:

“The reality is, sadly, I don’t see much difference between the Trump administration and the (Barack) Obama administration,” the outgoing chairman of the House Oversight Committee told Sinclair Broadcast Group.

“In many ways, it’s almost worse because we’re getting nothing, and that’s terribly frustrating and, with all due respect, the attorney general has not changed at all. I find him to be worse than what I saw with Loretta Lynch in terms of releasing documents and making things available. I just, that’s my experience, and that’s not what I expected.”
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...ncid=newsltushpmgnewsThe+Morning+Email+061917
 
O

Ogodei

Member
The issue is mostly that you don't know who early voters are because of the way Georgia's set up.

But we haven't heard anything positive leak out of the Republican side, either.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
BoogieWoogie said:
Giant shitbag Jason Chaffetz decides to grow a spine and shit all over Trump and Sessions as he escapes his position of House Oversight Chairman:
Click to expand...

"They're actually both the same and bad, but the new admin is actually worse, so actually they're not the same at fucking all and stuff is like kinda bad now but both sides..."
 
B

Blader

Member
Goddamn, not only did the Ossoff campaign charge me again today (after I specifically selected *twice* not to make the donation recurring), but I think they did so solely just to get me back on their mailing list after I unsubbed so they could bury me in these bullshit emails again:

We just don't know what else to do.

-- Donald Trump is DESTROYING Jon in the final days of the election.
-- Nate Silver predicted Jon has the same chance to win as Hillary in 2016.
-- But Nate Silver was WRONG. Hillary LOST.
Click to expand...

FUCK OFF!

cartoon_soldier said:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/19/ossoff-handel-georgia-special-democrats-239698



In the case of GA-6, the high EV benefits Handel. Tomorrow will be very interesting.
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Why does high EV benefit Handel? Don't EVs usually go in the Democrat's direction?
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Veritigo_X said:
The high EV doesn't necessarily benefit Handel, I don't know how you're reading that. The unpredictability comes from the fact that many early voters are new voters so we don't have a firm grasp on how they'll vote.
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Right or wrong, cartoon_soldier will always go out of his way to find the worst in anything. Not that the race tomorrow won't be a squeaker and there is a non-insignificant chance for a loss which we shouldn't let us stop in our tracks. But still, if there is bad news or even the apperance of bad news (even if there isn't) cartoon_soldier will find it :p
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
nature boy said:
DCryLSrVwAA2FDv.jpg:large
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Is he going to send his stooges to GA like he did Kansas?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Veritigo_X said:
The high EV doesn't necessarily benefit Handel, I don't know how you're reading that. The unpredictability comes from the fact that many early voters are new voters so we don't have a firm grasp on how they'll vote.
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As a rule of thumb, early voters are older than the norm, and as another rule of thumb, older voters tend Republican, though. The reason high early voting is normally good for Democrats is indirect; it's because high early voting is normally a good prediction of high in-person voting, and Democratic voters are normally less likely to vote than Republican ones.
 
B

Blader

Member
Wilsongt said:
Is he going to send his stooges to GA like he did Kansas?
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I think Pence has been there, and Price was there over the weekend.

Crab said:
As a rule of thumb, early voters are older than the norm, and as another rule of thumb, older voters tend Republican, though. The reason high early voting is normally good for Democrats is indirect; it's because high early voting is normally a good prediction of high in-person voting, and Democratic voters are normally less likely to vote than Republican ones.
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Don't day-of voters also tend to be older though?
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Crab said:
As a rule of thumb, early voters are older than the norm, and as another rule of thumb, older voters tend Republican, though. The reason high early voting is normally good for Democrats is indirect; it's because high early voting is normally a good prediction of high in-person voting, and Democratic voters are normally less likely to vote than Republican ones.
Click to expand...

The new early voters tend to be younger this time, though. A small proportion overall, but remember Handel needs absolutely every Republican vote (from the primary) that she can get without the makeup of the electorate changing too much from how it looked in the primary. That's her path to victory: few new voters and consolidate people who voted for her primary rivals.

Ossoff's path is to win a handful of GOP moderates and turn out a slice of new voters.

Assuming the new voters are low-propensity (should be the case in a wealthy district like GA-6 where you'd assume a higher level of civic engagement), and knowing that newer voters are younger, we can paint a positive picture.

The thing mucking with the numbers is that Georgia has no official party affiliation, it's just based on the last primary you voted in.
 
I

InsaneZero

Member
I just discovered this video series "Ron's Office Hours" by NPR on youtube that helps break down what the hell's actually going on in the political world that people don't seem to fully comprehend.

For instance, there's this video explaining what the "reconciliation" process actually entails. I've experienced way too many people on GAF being confused about what is actually is and why it keeps coming up.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Blader said:
Don't day-of voters also tend to be older though?
Click to expand...

Not by most studies I've seen. I mean, all voters are older than the average member of the population, by early voters are relatively more so.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
K6xA3zI.png


That sucks, if justices by 5-4 were willing to put a stay on the district court decision finding partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional, then it is hard to see them ruling against the gerrymandering.
 
B

Blader

Member
Well, it's certainly hard to see four of them ruling against it. But the argument was designed for Kennedy, so maybe Kennedy just wants to hear the argument?
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Know what we haven't had in a while? Oppo.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
If SCOTUS isn't going to try to end gerrymandering wouldn't it just be smart to try and get ballot initiatives about it everywhere? I don't think gerrymandering is really popular with anyone except the politicians it protects.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Blader said:
Well, it's certainly hard to see four of them ruling against it. But the argument was designed for Kennedy, so maybe Kennedy just wants to hear the argument?
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Yes, he seems very excited to hear this case, and the WI case was tailor made to satisfy the requirements he set out for a ruling
 
R

RumbleHumble

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
K6xA3zI.png


That sucks, if justices by 5-4 were willing to put a stay on the district court decision finding partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional, then it is hard to see them ruling against the gerrymandering.
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Wasn't it Thomas who flipped on the last gerrymander effort? Or are we relying on Kennedy to hopefully not be garbage?
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
RumbleHumble said:
Wasn't it Thomas who flipped on the last gerrymander effort? Or are we relying on Kennedy to hopefully not be garbage?
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Yes. NC I believe. There was just too much evidence race played a factor. In this instance we're hoping Kennedy flips. In a previous decisions he alluded that a way to measure the effects of gerrymandering was something he needed. This case attempts to do that
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Barzul said:
Bracing myself for Ossoff disappointment.
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There's no disappointment with this race. Either it's a good night showing 2018 is going to be a good year, or it's a good night showing 2018 is going to be a good year with a bonus extra congressman.

The only disappointing result for tomorrow would be Ossoff losing by 15+ points.
 
R

RumbleHumble

Banned
Fenderputty said:
Yes. NC I believe. There was just too much evidence race played a factor. In this instance we're hoping Kennedy flips. In a previous decisions he alluded that a way to measure the effects of gerrymandering was something he needed. This case attempts to do that
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Got it. Thanks for the clarification. Keeping the fingers crossed for Kennedy.
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
There's no disappointment with this race. Either it's a good night showing 2018 is going to be a good year, or it's a good night showing 2018 is going to be a good year with a bonus extra congressman.

The only disappointing result for tomorrow would be Ossoff losing by 15+ points.
Click to expand...

Honestly pretty much this.

A benefit of Ossoff losing would probably be that it may lull the GOP into a false sense of security for 2018.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
There's no disappointment with this race. Either it's a good night showing 2018 is going to be a good year, or it's a good night showing 2018 is going to be a good year with a bonus extra congressman.

The only disappointing result for tomorrow would be Ossoff losing by 15+ points.
Click to expand...

It won't be the end of the world, but there's no way a loss will be anything other than really disappointing.
 
P

Pyrokai

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
K6xA3zI.png


That sucks, if justices by 5-4 were willing to put a stay on the district court decision finding partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional, then it is hard to see them ruling against the gerrymandering.
Click to expand...


Wait, are we expecting SCOTUS to allow partisan gerrymandering to keep happening? I had faith they would rule it unconstitutional. Now you have me scared!!

This is by far one of the most important issues to me and the country. What do you guys think will happen?? And when will they hear the case and make a ruling???
 
S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
There's no disappointment with this race. Either it's a good night showing 2018 is going to be a good year, or it's a good night showing 2018 is going to be a good year with a bonus extra congressman.

The only disappointing result for tomorrow would be Ossoff losing by 15+ points.
Click to expand...

This is what I'm thinking. It's going to be close that is for certain.
 
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