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[Box of Kittens]

I earnestly can't tell if this reads like panic fanfiction or is actually close to the truth.

A real problem with there having been so many of these "SOUND THE ALARM" Twitter threads on Trumpcare is that people are just going to tune them out.

 

[whyamihere]

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Background on Byrd Rule decisions_7.21[1].pdf

Background on the Byrd Rule Decisions

The parliamentarian has made a determination that certain provisions of the Republican ”Better
Care Reconciliation Act" released on June 26, 2017, violate the Byrd Rule. This means that,
should the Senate proceed to the bill, these provisions may be struck from the legislation absent
60 votes.

Notably, the parliamentarian has advised that abortion restrictions on the premium tax credit and
the small business tax credit, and the language defunding Planned Parenthood, violate the Byrd
Rule. Further, the ”Buffalo Bailout" which was used to secure votes in the House has also been
found to violate the Byrd Rule – threatening other state-specific buy-offs.

Provisions Subject to a 60-vote Byrd Rule Point of Order

• Defunding Planned Parenthood: This section prohibits Planned Parenthood from receiving
Medicaid funds for one year. (Sec. 124)
• Abortion Restrictions for Tax Credits: Two separate provisions contain Hyde Amendment
language to prevent premium tax credits and small business tax credits from being used to
purchase health insurance that covers abortion. (Sec. 102(d)(1) and Sec. 103(b))
• Sunset of Essential Health Benefits Requirement for Medicaid: This provision states that,
beginning in 2020, states no longer have to cover essential health benefits in their Medicaid
alternative benefit plans. (Sec. 126(b))
• Funding for Cost-Sharing Subsidies: This section replicates current law by providing
funding for the subsidies through 2019. (Sec. 208)
• Stabilizing the Individual Insurance Markets (”Six Month Lock Out"): This section
imposes a six-month waiting period for individuals attempting to enroll in coverage in the
individual market who cannot demonstrate that they have maintained continuous coverage.
(Sec. 206)
• Medical Loss Ratio: This section allows states to determine how much insurers are allowed
to spend on administration, marketing, and profits versus health care. (Sec. 205)
• Availability of Rollover Funds: This provision allows states that spend less than their
targeted block grant amount to rollover funds to the following year and to use funds for nonhealth
purposes, specifically repealing the provision of the Social Security Act that prohibits
states from using Medicaid funds to build roads, bridges, and stadiums. (Sec. 134 –
1903B(c)(2)(D)) (Note: this provision has been removed from the most recent draft).
• Decrease in Target Expenditures for Required Expenditures by Certain Political
Subdivisions (”Buffalo Bailout"): This provision limits the ability of New York State to
require counties other than New York City to contribute funding to the state's Medicaid
program. (Sec. 133 – 1903(c)(4))
• Grandfathering Certain Medicaid Waivers; Prioritization of HCBS Waivers: This
section says that the Secretary will encourage states to adopt Medicaid Home and
Community Based Services (HCBS) waivers but does not set forth any actual details for this
plan. (Sec. 136)
• Reporting of CMS-64 Data (T-MSIS): This provision requires the Secretary of HHS to
submit a report on Congress recommending whether expenditure data from the Transformed
Medicaid Statistical Information System (T-MSIS) is preferable to data from state CMS-64
reports for making certain Medicaid decisions. (Sec. 133 – 1903(h)(5))

Provisions Not Subject to a 60-vote Byrd Rule Point of Order

• Medicaid Work Requirements: This provision allows states the option to impose work
requirements on Medicaid enrollees who are nondisabled, nonelderly, and nonpregnant.
Pregnant women are exempt from any work requirements for 60 days after giving birth. (Sec.
131)
• Providing Safety Net Funding for Non-Expansion States – This section provides $10
billion for non-expansion states. (Sec. 129)
• State Stability and Innovation Fund: This section includes abortion restrictions on funding
for the State Stability and Innovation Fund by tacking the Fund onto the CHIP program.
(Sec. 106)
• Equity Adjustment: This provision provides for adjusting the per capita cap targets of lowand
high-spending states to promote equity. (Sec. 133 – 1903(c)(5))
• Repeal of Cost-Sharing Subsidy Program: This section permanently repeals cost-sharing
subsidies beginning in 2020. (Sec. 209)
• Reporting of CMS-64 Data: This provision requires states to include information on per
capita cap enrollment and expenditures, psychiatric hospital expenditures, and children with
complex medical conditions in their Medicaid expenditure reports. (Sec. 133 -- 1903(h)(1))
Still Under Review
• Waivers for State Innovation (Essential Health Benefits): This section amends Sec. 1332
of the ACA to allow states to waive age rating, essential health benefits, and pre-existing
condition requirements so long as their proposal does not increase the federal deficit. (Sec.
207)
• Small Business Health Plans: This section would allow small businesses to establish
”association health plans" that could be sold across state lines. For regulatory purposes, these
plans would be treated as part of the large group market and thus would be exempt from
many ACA requirements such as covering essential health benefits. (Sec. 139)
• Change in Permissible Age Variation in Health Insurance Premium Rates (”Age Tax"):
This section allows insurers to charge older Americans at least five times more than what
they charge younger individuals. (Sec. 204)
• Flexible Block Grant Option for States: This section allows states the option to receive a
lump sum Medicaid ”block grant" instead of the per capita cap payments. (Sec. 134)

 

[Zolo]

sounds like a good excuse to move on!

McConnell can't let it go because he knows his reputation now rides on this.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Oh boy. Wonder which provisions.

http://email.capitolenews.com/q/WZkSoe_EyHCP1BNW7knvBiRUAnYwmcViwpDVc8Y8-x6jujxQS29gShFeO

Oh wow.

 

[Dominican Power]

https://twitter.com/nedprice/status/888466410204127232

Freudian slip.

 

[sangreal]

• Defunding Planned Parenthood: This section prohibits Planned Parenthood from receiving
Medicaid funds for one year. (Sec. 124)

If this doesn't kill the bill I don't know what will

Stabilizing the Individual Insurance Markets (”Six Month Lock Out"): This section
imposes a six-month waiting period for individuals attempting to enroll in coverage in the
individual market who cannot demonstrate that they have maintained continuous coverage.
(Sec. 206)

and this makes the entire thing unworkable (recall McConnel having to rush to add this)

 

[Deuce Deuce]

Oh boy. Wonder which provisions.

http://email.capitolenews.com/q/WZkSoe_EyHCP1BNW7knvBiRUAnYwmcViwpDVc8Y8-x6jujxQS29gShFeO

I'm relieved that some Republicans have a shred of integrity and aren't just blindly rubber stamping the agenda.

 

[skullmuffins]

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Background on Byrd Rule decisions_7.21[1].pdf

Yeesh. That's a lot.... Pence could overrule the parliamentarian, yes? I mean if they're already determined to break the process.

 

[whyamihere]

This could sink the bill tbh.

Yeesh. That's a lot.... Pence could overrule the parliamentarian, yes? I mean if they're already determined to break the process.

Technically with 50 votes, but they don't have 50 votes to override the parliamentarian.

 

[kirblar]

A real problem with there having been so many of these "SOUND THE ALARM" Twitter threads on Trumpcare is that people are just going to tune them out.

This seems like a problem w/ liberal fundraising/activism, period.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Background on Byrd Rule decisions_7.21[1].pdf

Isn't this like the entire bill?

 

[kirblar]

Yeesh. That's a lot.... Pence could overrule the parliamentarian, yes? I mean if they're already determined to break the process.

If you do that you have effectively nuked the fillibuster.

 

[whyamihere]

A real problem with there having been so many of these "SOUND THE ALARM" Twitter threads on Trumpcare is that people are just going to tune them out.

Yup. It's exhausting. I legit can't tell if this is real or not at this point.

 

[sangreal]

Yeesh. That's a lot.... Pence could overrule the parliamentarian, yes? I mean if they're already determined to break the process.

ignoring the parliamentarian is the same as the nuclear option. Sure they could do it, and Trump will say so but I don't think they will for such an unpopular, shitty bill

 

[Wilsongt]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkQKVMYyPoM

A pretty good video from Vox about how shitty Tucker Carlson is.

 

[skullmuffins]

ignoring the parliamentarian is the same as the nuclear option. Sure they could do it, and Trump will say so but I don't think they will for such an unpopular, shitty bill

True, there's no reason to go that far for an incredibly unpopular bill that can't even get 50 votes to begin with

 

[Kusagari]

Considering the already tenuous situation with McConnell, I don't know if effectively nuking the filibuster for this would go over well at all with most of his caucus.

 

[Aaron Strife]

McConnell should take this as an excuse to move on.

 

[whyamihere]

@MEPFuller
What this means: For this to become law, Republicans would have to vote for a bill that allows for federal funds to go toward abortions.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

I earnestly can't tell if this reads like panic fanfiction or is actually close to the truth.

The point isn't to be accurate (I'd bet money the tweets are bullshit), it's to continue spurring people to call their senators, protest, etc. A bill could pass...but right now? It's looking pretty dead, and Trump+McConnell haven't shown the ability to win over Collins/Paul/Murkowsk. Activists understandably don't feel comfortable saying "well the bill looks dead, I think we won but maybe there's a 30% chance...", they'd rather keep people on high alert.

 

[Barzul]

This is likely what kills it.

 

[Wilsongt]

 

[whyamihere]

The point isn't to be accurate (I'd bet money the tweets are bullshit), it's to continue spurring people to call their senators, protest, etc. A bill could pass...but right now? It's looking pretty dead, and Trump+McConnell haven't shown the ability to win over Collins/Paul/Murkowsk. Activists understandably don't feel comfortable saying "well the bill looks dead, I think we won but maybe there's a 30% chance...", they'd rather keep people on high alert.

I know, but like, for ME. I got shit to do, yo.

 

[Lo-Volt]

Damn, Mitch. You and Ryan pushed so many Republicans down the plank for this shit and the bill keeps blowing up in your faces anyway.

 

[JettDash]

McCain presumably won't be there and Collins should be a no on MTP. One more no and they'd lose it right there.

And I think that even if they win MTP, that doesn't mean they will pass the final bill. Collins and Paul should be no that's enough for them to lose.

I think that's about what we are looking at worst case. Probably. Maybe Collins or Paul will flip or McCain thinks screwing people over is a good enough reason to say fuck his brain cancer and fly to DC for the vote.

 

[Kevinroc]

The point isn't to be accurate (I'd bet money the tweets are bullshit), it's to continue spurring people to call their senators, protest, etc. A bill could pass...but right now? It's looking pretty dead, and Trump+McConnell haven't shown the ability to win over Collins/Paul/Murkowsk. Activists understandably don't feel comfortable saying "well the bill looks dead, I think we won but maybe there's a 30% chance...", they'd rather keep people on high alert.

When they see reports of Murkowski meeting with people who are trying to get her to "yes," they understandably get nervous.

 

[sangreal]

The point isn't to be accurate (I'd bet money the tweets are bullshit), it's to continue spurring people to call their senators, protest, etc. A bill could pass...but right now? It's looking pretty dead, and Trump+McConnell haven't shown the ability to win over Collins/Paul/Murkowsk. Activists understandably don't feel comfortable saying "well the bill looks dead, I think we won but maybe there's a 30% chance...", they'd rather keep people on high alert.

Paul said he would vote for the MTP as long as full repeal was on the table along with the BCRA

Moran is still a no though

 

[Box of Kittens]

The point isn't to be accurate (I'd bet money the tweets are bullshit), it's to continue spurring people to call their senators, protest, etc. A bill could pass...but right now? It's looking pretty dead, and Trump+McConnell haven't shown the ability to win over Collins/Paul/Murkowsk. Activists understandably don't feel comfortable saying "well the bill looks dead, I think we won but maybe there's a 30% chance...", they'd rather keep people on high alert.

Which makes sense on some level, but I think it's ultimately self-defeating to keep saying passage is imminent, because when you keep saying it and it doesn't pass, fewer and fewer people are going to believe you the next time you say it. It's the boy who cried wolf, basically.

 

[whyamihere]

When they see reports of Murkowski meeting with people who are trying to get her to "yes," they understandably get nervous.

Of course she's going to meet with people, it doesn't mean that those meetings are going well.

 

[Barzul]

@frankthorp

The doc, produced by Dems on the Budget Cmte, is guidance on an EARLIER draft of the bill, according to a GOP spox for the Budget Cmte.

.

 

[Autodidact]

Of course she's going to meet with people, it doesn't mean that those meetings are going well.

TFW when your donors just won't shut the fuck up.

 

[sangreal]

.

Yes, it says June 26 but those provisions are all still in the bill and huge compnents of it at that

 

[skullmuffins]

The draft didn't include the Cruz amendment, but I don't think any of the problematic sections are gone from the current bill?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

This could sink the bill tbh.



Technically with 50 votes, but they don't have 50 votes to override the parliamentarian.

Wouldn't this be nuking the filibuster?

 

[thepotatoman]

How bad must this Scaramucci guy be that even Spicer felt the need to grow a spine and take a stand against him.

 

[whyamihere]

Wouldn't this be nuking the filibuster?

Yes, which is why it won't happen.

 

[Barzul]

Wouldn't this be nuking the filibuster?

Yeah. I think this is exactly that.

 

[FyreWulff]

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Background on Byrd Rule decisions_7.21[1].pdf

that's basically all the major points of their bill lol

 

[Aaron Strife]

Like I don't think Murkowski is just playing hard to get for a few sweeteners, McConnell threw in billions just for her state and she still hasn't said one way or the other how she'll vote to my knowledge.

This is a terrible bill, rushed through a terrible and absurdly secretive process that deliberately cut out the most vulnerable members of the party. I'm not surprised it's crashing and burning. And no, that doesn't mean it's absolutely 100% dead or that the GOP can't try something else to cripple or kill ACA but saving it at this point would require one hell of a turnaround. And if I saw the leaders of my party were Trump, Ryan and McConnell were leading that effort I'd start writing the eulogy.

 

[whyamihere]

wrecked

@MEPFuller

Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows reacts to Parliamentarian striking down the abortion funding prohibition.

"Passage almost impossible."

 

[JettDash]

wrecked

Poor freedom caucus jackass, having to choose between killing babies and Obamacare or not killing Obamacare. If by some miracle this passes the Senate.

 

[Aaron Strife]

wrecked

Boom.

Trying to do this via reconciliation with such a slim majority was a stupid idea. At least Bush just pushed tax cuts which every Republican loves, and Obama just pushed a fix bill when he could lose 10 senators.

 

[Barzul]

wrecked

Hit the road, Jack. It's dead.

 

[whyamihere]

hello my name is elizabeth macdonough and i just fucked up all your best laid plans motherfuckers

 

[Sciz]

If these provisions have been sitting in the bill since the 26th, why are they just now getting scored by the parliamentarian? The implication seems to be that the senate would've passed the bill in violation of their own rules if they'd had the votes any sooner.

I've gotta be missing something here.

 

[whyamihere]

If these provisions have been sitting in the bill since the 26th, why are they just now getting scored by the parliamentarian? The implication seems to be that the senate would've passed the bill in violation of their own rules if they'd had the votes any sooner.

I've gotta be missing something here.

she was at pilates

 

[sangreal]

If these provisions have been sitting in the bill since the 26th, why are they just now getting scored by the parliamentarian? The implication seems to be that the senate would've passed the bill in violation of their own rules if they'd had the votes any sooner.

I've gotta be missing something here.

it doesn't count for anything until someone raises a point of order during the debate on the bill. They just run drafts by the parliamentarian to get a sense of how it will go

 

[BlastProcessing]

wrecked

That is one hell of a parliamentarian news dump.

 

[JettDash]

If these provisions have been sitting in the bill since the 26th, why are they just now getting scored by the parliamentarian? The implication seems to be that the senate would've passed the bill in violation of their own rules if they'd had the votes any sooner.

I've gotta be missing something here.

I think how it works with the Byrd rule is that it is up to Senators to challenge provisions they think are in violation and then the parliamentarian makes a ruling. So it seems Democrats let them waste as much time as possible and then let it drop on the Friday before they supposedly vote because they aren't even in town.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

A real problem with there having been so many of these "SOUND THE ALARM" Twitter threads on Trumpcare is that people are just going to tune them out.

Someone tried warning people about this a week ago