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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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K

Kevinroc

Member
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/891692538066853888

Trump plans to sabotage the ACA this week. If everyone handles it right, it won't work.

More on this later today. Follow if interested.

2- Trump's single greatest bullet in his gun to disrupt ACA is to not make CSR payments what he calls bailouts.

3- Trump has been threatening it & I am hearing he will announce this Tuesday he won't pay.

His aide...

4- Ms. Conway's comment here... saying he's the only one who can decide.

DGAFqWIUQAAPFGi.jpg


4- There is a well documented record that this is political & violates the law. Well documented by Trump that is.

But more importantly...

5- States & insurers by refilling can make this a neutral 2 positive 4 consumers & the only one to pay the price of this sabotage- Trump..

6- Here's how. This is technical, but Oliver Wyman explains it here:

DGAKRBfUMAAukd6.jpg


7- Now I will try to explain. Skip next few tweets if you don't want these details. It begins with states allowing states to file w no CSRs.

8- When states re-file, there are 3 types of consumers:
1- those w max subsidies
2- those w some subsidies
3- those w none
All can be ok/btr

9- With max subsidies, consumers are protected against all rate increases. They don't pay a penny more.

10- For consumers w some subsidies, benchmark silver plan is higher so they actually get MORE of a subsidy

11- People with no subsidy will be the same if plans file a comparable off market silver plan.

12-Technical part is over. What this means is insurers make it the exact same in 2018 and beyond. Consumers same in better. But...

13- If Trump eliminates CSR payments, entire increase in burden could be born by the Federal Treasury.

Trump would be sabotaging himself.

14- If trump pulls the trigger this could end up looking like the very foolish decision it is if no one blinks.

And here's what happens...

15- Here's what happens next.
-Gets sued for remaining 2017 payments.
-2018 & beyond (per Oliver Wyman, tweet 6)

Worse for him...

16- If Trump pulls the trigger on CSRs, he loses what leverage he may have to push Congress for a deal.

17- This is a little but like Trump pulling out of the Paris Accord and states & companies saying "we won't change our emission standards."

18- My twitter hiatus starts Wednesday for a reason. I will leave you w the key people to follow on this topic.
Click to expand...
 
G

GrapeApes

Member
Lucky Forward said:
I'm not familiar with Omarosa (something to do with The Apprentice...?) so I check her out on Wikipedia:
Okaaayyy...I guess she fits right in with this bunch.
Click to expand...
It's nuts how much the bar has been lowered in this administration. These dudes got wedding planners running government offices. Hell a reality star is running the whole show!
 
S

skullmuffins

Banned
Sadsic said:
what is the general credibility of Fusion GPS at this point? In the Bill Browder testimony, he points to them as being the source of american lobbyists against the Magnitsky act, while at the same time, they are the ones who helped compile the Trump Dossier over the last year. why would they be doing something both pro and anti-Russian at the same time? does this mean any thing or is it white noise
Click to expand...
I don't know if there's any significance to it yet. They could just be a guns-for-hire firm that does whatever their clients ask them to. Russia-related client hires them to lobby against the Magnistky act, another client hires them to do oppo research against Trump.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Sadsic said:
what is the general credibility of Fusion GPS at this point? In the Bill Browder testimony, he points to them as being the source of american lobbyists against the Magnitsky act, while at the same time, they are the ones who helped compile the Trump Dossier over the last year. why would they be doing something both pro and anti-Russian at the same time? does this mean any thing or is it white noise
Click to expand...

I think they probably took anyone and everyone's money and played both sides. The sad truth is that none of these DC lobbying houses are credible. They all function to turn money into influence and they don't seem to care where the money comes from or what they stand for.

The credibility of the dossier is more attached to Steele, I think. Even then, I would only look at the dossier as a treasure map of sorts. It's just a list of possibilities and leads.
 
S

SerAardvark

Member
Fusion GPS is just a general opposition research/strategy firm that works for both/all sides - they were also hired to look into Romne -y for the Democrats, worked for Planned Parenthood, etc. Steele got involved when Fusion hired his company (Orbis Business Intelligence) to continue the work they'd started.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Autodidact said:
You'd think he'd realize that if he threatens to veto a budget, Ryan would be forced to give Pelosi and the Democrats a substantial amount of concessions in negotiations to achieve a veto-proof majority.
Click to expand...

Budgets aren't signed by the President anyway

There is nothing he can do about Congress passing a new budget
 
A

Abinash117

Member
ShadowSwordmaster said:
Has this been posted yet?
Nation Tracker poll: Most say Trump creating “conflict and drama” and “chaos” as core backers applaud the fight
Click to expand...

Basically the believers are people that likes it when Trump trolls. I doubt his support will erode too much from this group if he doesn't get much done, as long he is a fighter they will back him.

However, there's only so much he can do. I think if he keeps losing like with budget battles and healthcare, and failing at cutting 'deals'. I doubt he'll would keep the support forever in that case.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Kevinroc said:
Mulvaney: It's White House policy Senate keeps focus on healthcare

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...-house-policy-that-nothing-gets-a-vote-before

According to Mulvaney, Trump wants the Senate to work on nothing but repealing Obamacare.
Click to expand...

I still think they'll end up passing SOMETHING. It might be a far cry from their original bill, and, as others have said, it may just be a repeal of the medical device tax. He desperately wants something passed so he can lie about it and say it was a huge win.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If he wants a win, why doesn't he just move on to something more popular like infrastructure...
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Y2Kev said:
If he wants a win, why doesn't he just move on to something more popular like infrastructure...
Click to expand...

1. Because the Freedom Caucus will not approve infrastructure spending.
2. Because the Democrats will not approve infrastructure spending that involves Republicans giving the jobs to their fat-cat contractor buddies.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Y2Kev said:
If he wants a win, why doesn't he just move on to something more popular like infrastructure...
Click to expand...

last I checked, that's not even close to anywhere on the republican agenda

Autodidact said:
1. Because the Freedom Caucus will not approve infrastructure spending.
Click to expand...
Even regular republicans won't approve increased infrastructure spending. They're there to reduce the size of government and decrease the tax burden.

wutwutwut said:
In most sensible democracies, failing to pass a budget leads to a snap election.
Click to expand...
Didn't this happen in Japan? Damn entitlements.
 
Nydius

Nydius

Member
Spoiled Milk said:
Even regular republicans won't approve increased infrastructure spending. They're there to reduce the size of government and decrease the tax burden.
Click to expand...

Except when it comes to defense spending and corporate cronyism. Infrastructure spending is filled to the brim with the latter. Lots of pork barrel spending to spread around for GOP politicians to brag about on campaigns while their corporate supporters get all the contracts and funding. Remember Senator Ted Stevens? Loved to talk about being a small government Republican while being one of the most egregious examples of big government pork (and corporate corruption).
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Captiosus said:
Except when it comes to defense spending and corporate cronyism. Infrastructure spending is filled to the brim with the latter. Lots of pork barrel spending to spread around for GOP politicians to brag about on campaigns while their corporate supporters get all the contracts and funding. Remember Senator Ted Stevens? Loved to talk about being a small government Republican while being one of the most egregious examples of big government pork (and corporate corruption).
Click to expand...

If I was a Senator, I would be all about getting big government pork for my state. Not so much corporate corruption though!
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
GettyImages-515496936.jpg


Lyndon Johnson flipping through the pages of the Medicare bill for Harry Truman.

Now just imagine (your 2020 candidate of choice) doing the same for Obama with Medicare-for-All.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Captiosus said:
Except when it comes to defense spending and corporate cronyism. Infrastructure spending is filled to the brim with the latter. Lots of pork barrel spending to spread around for GOP politicians to brag about on campaigns while their corporate supporters get all the contracts and funding. Remember Senator Ted Stevens? Loved to talk about being a small government Republican while being one of the most egregious examples of big government pork (and corporate corruption).
Click to expand...

A side of pork is way easier to hide in earmarks (which are banned now, so brining up Ted Stevens is ancient news) than a corporpate pig free-for-all. Everyone will see through that. Nobody voted for Republicans so that they can go to Washington and hand out billions to their buddies without any increase in revenue at all. And there aren't enough Friends of Mitchell to convince every Republican to go on board. And that's just the senate - house republicans are way more ideological because many are small town nobodies. They don't have friends to pay back, just an axe to grind. No fucking way in hell an infrastructure bill gets passed. And Democrats wouldn't be on board either, unless it's fully (which means mostly) funded. I mean, seriously, Republicans go home and say "well for the 2017-2018 sessions, we raised taxes and made bridges to nowhere"? Over Reagan's dead body.

Besides, Obama already tried this magic trick. The money barely went to infrastructure. Turns out there's no such thing as a shovel ready project anymore because the Kafkaesque hell of bureaucracy is somehow preferable to the march of civilization.
 
B

Barzul

Member
Trump's reaction to Putin's challenge will be interesting. If he wimps out, the media cycle could be brutal. And he has to acknowledge it, that number is too great.

Putin has cut his losses. Trump has shown he has zero pull on Congress.

https://www.axios.com/putin-orderin...witter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic

Putin:

"We waited for quite some time that maybe something will change for the better, had such hope that the situation will somehow change, but, judging by everything, if it changes, it will not be soon."
Click to expand...
 
Nydius

Nydius

Member
Sirpopopop said:
If I was a Senator, I would be all about getting big government pork for my state. Not so much corporate corruption though!
Click to expand...

No doubt. That's the game of politics after all. It just serves as an example why I laugh every time I hear a Republican talk about smaller or limited government. They're all too happy to have big government and expand government even further so long as the expansion works in their favor. Take money away from social programs! Give it back? Oh hell no, expand defense spending! Mandate new government programs to enforce archaic drug laws and to strip women of their health care rights!

A true small government Republican who practices what they preach is as rare as a rainbow farting unicorn.

Spoiled Milk said:
A side of pork is way easier to hide in earmarks (which are banned now, so brining up Ted Stevens is ancient news) than a corporpate pig free-for-all. Everyone will see through that. Nobody voted for Republicans so that they can go to Washington and hand out billions to their buddies without any increase in revenue at all. And there aren't enough Friends of Mitchell to convince every Republican to go on board. And that's just the senate - house republicans are way more ideological because many are small town nobodies. They don't have friends to pay back, just an axe to grind. No fucking way in hell an infrastructure bill gets passed. And Democrats wouldn't be on board either, unless it's fully (which means mostly) funded. I mean, seriously, Republicans go home and say "well for the 2017-2018 sessions, we raised taxes and made bridges to nowhere"? Over Reagan's dead body.

Besides, Obama already tried this magic trick. The money barely went to infrastructure. Turns out there's no such thing as a shovel ready project anymore because the Kafkaesque hell of bureaucracy is somehow preferable to the march of civilization.
Click to expand...

I feel like you're fundamentally missing the plot. Republicans have been doing this for decades. They cut taxes, raise spending, put it into the national debt. Go on the campaign trail, boast about cutting taxes, boast about spending for their states and communities, but always ignore the debt increase or turn around and blame the Democrats for it. And their base always buys it up without thinking, as do a lot of center-right moderates.

Reagan himself did as much. Republican voters want small government but they ALSO expect infrastructure, public services like cops, fire, EMS, and lots of defense spending, especially when it comes to their respective communities and states. I have never once heard a Republican vote in favor of a BRAC commission base closure recommendation because it would save money and limit government. Not once.

And earmarks aren't as dead as you think they are. Crack open any massive appropriations bill after they've been published on the GPO. They're still there. Just written much more craftily as amendments.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Barzul said:
Trump's reaction to Putin's challenge will be interesting. If he wimps out, the media cycle could be brutal. And he has to acknowledge it, that number is too great.
Click to expand...

Putin: There wouldn't be no trouble except for that king-shit Obama. All I wanted was something to eat. But the man kept pushing.
Trump: You did some pushing of your own, Vladdy.
Putin: They drew first blood. Not me.
Trump: Look Vlad. Let me fly to Moscow and we can talk this over.
Putin: ...they drew first blood.

And then Putin detonates the nuke under DC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqRtUwi3kv8
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
BoogieWoogie said:
The Koch Bros were pretty quiet during the latter half of the health care plan. Wonder what they're up to?
Click to expand...

Drinking heavily and wondering where things went off the rails, probably.

Remember, they were speaking out against the AHCA. This whole process has pretty well demonstrated how fucked up things have gotten. Other than Heller being wholly in the pocket of the casino magnates, GOP's usual special interests groups have been pretty much totally incapable of actually steering the ship.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Mulvaney actually claimed a shut down might be necessary to fix Washington back in May.

This White House isn't going to do shit to avoid a shut down.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
sangreal said:
I hope Pelosi brings back earmarks if dems take the house

Congress clearly can't function without them
Click to expand...

Shockingly, when the whole "pork barrel" debate was going down, nobody stopped to actually think about what happens to an unlubricated machine.

(Spoilers, it ain't pretty.)
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Poodlestrike said:
Shockingly, when the whole "pork barrel" debate was going down, nobody stopped to actually think about what happens to an unlubricated machine.

(Spoilers, it ain't pretty.)
Click to expand...

It's likely part of what led to the hyper-partisanship as well. It's hard to justify a liberal vote to a lean-R district without showing them you got them something for it.
 
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