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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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Kusagari

Member
I've already seen a lot of the chapo folks rally around Gillibrand, because they think she's the most likely to give in to their pressure from the likely candidates.
 

KingK

Member
Honestly Booker (and Tulsi lol) is the only name being thrown around that I really don't like. Harris, Gillibrand, Franken, Klobuchar are all pretty good imo.
 
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sangreal

Member
No need for him to even pretend now. He doesn't give a fuck about anyone but his base. He's going to run with being President Deplorable for now on.

Has he ever pretended to give a fuck about anyone but his base? I'm fairly certain Trump actually does not understand that he is supposed to be working for everyone, including those who didn't vote for him
 

jtb

Banned
Can someone explain to me what Gillibrand's appeal is? Somebody not from New York?

Because I get, but then again I don't. There's keeping your head low to avoid Republicans (and the far left) using you for target practice. And then there's doing little if anything to grow your national brand and reach out to the constituencies that you're going to need to win.

2020 is still four years away. Prospective candidates don't need "brands" as much as they need signature accomplishments they can point to. The brands are built around the accomplishments.

(This is the Cory Booker problem: all brand, a questionable record)
 

royalan

Member
2020 is still four years away. Prospective candidates don't need "brands" as much as they need signature accomplishments they can point to. The brands are built around the accomplishments.

(This is the Cory Booker problem: all brand, a questionable record)

This isn't really true, and even accomplished legislators need a visible brand they can tie their successes to.

Trump has a brand. Warren has a brand. So did Bernie in his way. Hillary even, with all of her individual accomplishments, had the name 'Clinton' to tie them to. That name came with power as well as liability. Cory Booker's brand as the good-guy politician is becoming so solidified that by 2020 I guarantee the spots on his record won't even register to most people. Harris is quickly becoming the Democratic vanguard in the Senate and the figurehead of California politics.

Gillibrand needs to expand her brand. Because her accomplishments alone guarantee her nothing but middle-of-the-pack status. That politician who looks perfect on paper...but for some reason she's just not resonating with the people.
 

jtb

Banned
Obama kept his head down his first two years and did just fine going from 'unknown' to president.

In general, I think it's a terrible look to run for president when there's a critical midterm just around the corner. Your job as a Democratic senator/gov/whatever between now and 2018 is to elect other Democrats, not build your own brand.

This is the difference between being a John Edwards and being a Barack Obama (or even a Hillary Clinton).

This isn't really true, and even accomplished legislators need a visible brand they can tie their successes to.

Trump has a brand. Warren has a brand. So did Bernie in his way. Hillary even, with all of her individual accomplishments, had the name 'Clinton' to tie them to. That name came with power as well as liability. Cory Booker's brand as the good-guy politician is becoming so solidified that by 2020 I guarantee the spots on his record won't even register to most people. Harris is quickly becoming the Democratic vanguard in the Senate and the figurehead of California politics.

Gillibrand is from the tiny, media-shy state of New York. Once she boxes out Cuomo (who is a terrible candidate) and if/when she decides that she wants national attention, she'll get it.

Gillibrand needs to expand her brand. Because her accomplishments alone guarantee her nothing but middle-of-the-pack status. That politician who looks perfect on paper...but for some reason she's just not resonating with the people.

Everyone needs to expand their brand. But she's at least starting with a few natural constituencies (pro-choice women), which is better than most candidates that can say.

I suspect (as someone else in this thread - apologies I've forgotten who - keeps posting) that she's keeping a low profile in part as she backchannels Cuomo out of the race and consolidate the NY fundraising $$

I guess I don't want Dem Senators trying to "build their brand" right now. I don't see how that helps anyone
 

Ogodei

Member
LBJ isn't relevant to the argument. He wasn't running for re-election after 8 years of a D administration.

Hillary was exposed for Decades. She should have left elected politics as a candidate after leaving the SoS position.

Harris taking the VP position would effectively end her political career. It's very unlikely that she would do so at her age.

Dems win with younger candidates. Younger candidates want older, more experienced VPs. The benefits of charisma do not pass on to a chosen successor.

I don't think you actually get that much exposure as a VP. How much has Pence been in the news, how much was Biden ever, really?

As VP to a successful president, you get their tailwind helping you out, but you haven't been brutalized by the press.
 

jtb

Banned
also, all this charisma talk seems way overboard. If white charm was all you needed to be President, Biden would be serving his, what, sixth term right now?

we can do better than Jason Kander (and fucking Joe Kennedy)
 
This isn't really true, and even accomplished legislators need a visible brand they can tie their successes to.

Trump has a brand. Warren has a brand. So did Bernie in his way. Hillary even, with all of her individual accomplishments, had the name 'Clinton' to tie them to. That name came with power as well as liability. Cory Booker's brand as the good-guy politician is becoming so solidified that by 2020 I guarantee the spots on his record won't even register to most people. Harris is quickly becoming the Democratic vanguard in the Senate and the figurehead of California politics.

Gillibrand needs to expand her brand. Because her accomplishments alone guarantee her nothing but middle-of-the-pack status. That politician who looks perfect on paper...but for some reason she's just not resonating with the people.

I don't mean to "nah" the whole thing but, nah. Haha.

Obama was a Dem rock star but he was still not expected to run until 2012 at least because, well, he wasn't much of a national figure.

Bill Clinton was an Arkansas governor mostly known for a spectacularly boring convention speech.

I'll concede that snooty coastals might need to do some heartland-outreaching. But overall, eh. If you can sell yourself as President, you can sell yourself as President.
 

kirblar

Member
I don't mean to "nah" the whole thing but, nah. Haha.

Obama was a Dem rock star but he was still not expected to run until 2012 at least because, well, he wasn't much of a national figure.

Bill Clinton was an Arkansas governor mostly known for a spectacularly boring convention speech.

I'll concede that snooty coastals might need to do some heartland-outreaching. But overall, eh. If you can sell yourself as President, you can sell yourself as President.
Exactly.
 

jtb

Banned
I think Tim Kaine would make a great president. Too bad everybody hates him. Didn't he decline the VP job in 08 because he told Obama they were too similar?
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Politically I don't think Gillibrand and Kamala are different enough to warrant any mudslinging. If they run against each other, it won't be anything like the ideological microcosm that was Bernie versus Hillary. Translating the 2016 primary onto this particular battle is unproductive and dangerous.

Because there probably won't be an outspoken leftist in the running, it's not useful for left-of-center folks like myself to tear down either candidate. The best we can do is offer constructive criticism of their policies and encourage them to respond. They both seem substantially more progressive than Hillary or Obama or any serious prior candidate not called Bernie Sanders, so there's not much to complain about. That both of them seem open to social democratic solutions and some reduction of our imperial footprint is wonderful, and suggests that something we're doing is working.

My only real fear is that that whichever one of them gets the nomination ends up sliding to the center to appease the Booker and Biden fans.
 

Ogodei

Member
Gillibrand and Kamala both won't last long. One will eat the other's lunch.

As i've said, you'll get one of each of these three groups

1) Gillibrand, Harris, Castro, Booker
2) Klobuchar, Brown, Franken, Warren
3) Cuomo, Biden, McAuliffe, Bullock.
 

kirblar

Member
I think Tim Kaine would make a great president. Too bad everybody hates him. Didn't he decline the VP job in 08 because he told Obama they were too similar?
I think it's less hate and more "oh god please don't run a candidate w/ negative charisma".

That can work in VA. Clearly, not in national politics.
 

jtb

Banned
Well, I find Tim Kaine to be an empathetic, endearing politician, which is pretty rare these days. Alas.

I also think his lack of charisma is way overstated. He's self-deprecating and genuine. Just miscast as an attack dog in the Hillary campaign.

Gillibrand and Kamala both won't last long. One will eat the other's lunch.

As i've said, you'll get one of each of these three groups

1) Gillibrand, Harris, Castro, Booker
2) Klobuchar, Brown, Franken, Warren
3) Cuomo, Biden, McAuliffe, Bullock.

I don't really understand these groupings. Are they ideological or geographic (or a little bit of both)? Demographic?
 

Valhelm

contribute something
tim kaine has nothing to offer besides a mean harmonica

Just curious, has any VP contender attached to a failed ticker later gone on to become president?
 

royalan

Member
I don't mean to "nah" the whole thing but, nah. Haha.

Obama was a Dem rock star but he was still not expected to run until 2012 at least because, well, he wasn't much of a national figure.

Bill Clinton was an Arkansas governor mostly known for a spectacularly boring convention speech.

I'll concede that snooty coastals might need to do some heartland-outreaching. But overall, eh. If you can sell yourself as President, you can sell yourself as President.

...but how exactly do you think one sells themselves as President? You build alliances and win constituencies one by one by demonstrating your appeal.

Obama did it with his 2004 keynote address that brought him national attention at an unexpected level and a dominant Senate run.

Bill Clinton did it by being one of the most charming men alive, expertly playing off his sex scandals in a way that actually broadened his appeal (thanks to Queen's quick thinking), and playing the sax on the Arsenio Hall show.

So neither of these two men fit as examples of people "just selling themselves" as President. There was step-by-step work.

I suppose I'm not saying that Gillibrand (or any Democrat) should be out there right now shouting "HERE I COME!" It's very early. But still...social media has made it so that everything is early, and several popular figures have already begun positioning themselves for successful runs and in comparison, I just don't see Gillibrand even beginning to leverage what little appeal she may have outside of New York. We're years away and she's already fallen behind. I suppose I just don't see it for her or why she's always mentioned in these discussions. Klobuchar has more appeal and recognition than she does.
 
Historically VP has mostly worked as a path to the Presidency in the "intended" way, i.e., upon the president dying or otherwise no longer being in office. Before Bush the last sitting VP to win election was Can Buren in 1836. Nixon was elected with his last office being VP, but he wasn't holding the office at the time.
 

Snake

Member

Effect

Member

No way in hell he typed that. Wasn't there a way back during the campaign there was a way of telling if a tweet came from an iphone or a android phone and it was from the iPhone it was from a staffer and not him. Is that still possible?

Either way it's not believable. He's shown to the world (again because it was always there) he's a racist bigot who is sympathetic to nazis, kkk, etc.
 

kirblar

Member
...but how exactly do you think one sells themselves as President? You build alliances and win constituencies one by one by demonstrating your appeal.

Obama did it with his 2004 keynote address that brought him national attention at an unexpected level and a dominant Senate run.

Bill Clinton did it by being one of the most charming men alive, expertly playing off his sex scandals in a way that actually broadened his appeal (thanks to Queen's quick thinking), and playing the sax on the Arsenio Hall show.

So neither of these two men fit as examples of people "just selling themselves" as President. There was step-by-step work.

I suppose I'm not saying that Gillibrand (or any Democrat) should be out there right now shouting "HERE I COME!" It's very early. But still...social media has made it so that everything is early, and several popular figures have already begun positioning themselves for successful runs and in comparison, I just don't see Gillibrand even beginning to leverage what little appeal she may have outside of New York. We're years away and she's already fallen behind. I suppose I just don't see it for her or why she's always mentioned in these discussions. Klobuchar has more appeal and recognition than she does.
This voting record: not an accident.https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/whos-voting-for-donald-trumps-nominees/515943/

Part of the reason Gillibrand has to be less overt: she's up for re-election next year and it's a major political faux pas to explicitly announce you're planning on running for another office and hope your current one is a stepping stone.
 
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