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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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Obviously we just have an incredible and unthinkable upset that defied expectations in 2016, but why was the Romney camp so certain they were going to win? I wasn't paying attention at that time and took an Obama presidency for granted.

IIRC the campaign just kept firing any internal pollsters who said they were trailing Obama.
 
CEROkPh.jpg


by @darth as usual

hahahahahaahaha
 

Vixdean

Member
We know this already?

Who's "We"? If you're saying that her book will essentially be preaching to the choir, I don't disagree, but there's plenty of people (who probably won't read it) that don't want to accept that Bernie's attacks, Russia, racism/sexism/bigotry in general, and the straight up stupidity of the American voter had as much to do with her loss as anything she could control.
 
So basically every day while driving to work I leave Portman a voice mail asking him to vote no on the health care vote du jour. Afterwards today I called Sherrod Brown's office and immediately got a real staffer immediately; thanked him for his no votes and asked for him to filibuster any motion to adjourn in August aka no recess appointments.

Keep calling, people.
 
I think there are more important things to be concerned about than what Fox says re: troublesome women; Russia hysteria; no-message Demz... problem is that between them and countless Trump Supporters are Trump Supporters stories, one might not realize he's historically unpopular for somebody who has faced no new wars, natural disasters or economic woes.
 

jmdajr

Member
I think there are more important things to be concerned about than what Fox says re: troublesome women; Russia hysteria; no-message Demz... problem is that between them and countless Trump Supporters are Trump Supporters stories, one might not realize he's historically unpopular for somebody who has faced no new wars, natural disasters or economic woes.

Fucking amazing no? Should be smooth sailing but NOPE. God help us when shit hits the fan.
 

Ogodei

Member
I think there are more important things to be concerned about than what Fox says re: troublesome women; Russia hysteria; no-message Demz... problem is that between them and countless Trump Supporters are Trump Supporters stories, one might not realize he's historically unpopular for somebody who has faced no new wars, natural disasters or economic woes.

Yup, if he largely sat back and did nothing, just show up to events, smile and work the crowd, use words like "it's a shame that they feel that way" about the Russian investigation, he could be in the high 40s or low 50s on approval right now, with disapproval right around that range.

I'd almost say not a single thing outside of his control has gone wrong since he entered the White House. Like the universe is trying to easy mode him but can't stop him from steering the kart into the wall.
 
Yup, if he largely sat back and did nothing, just show up to events, smile and work the crowd, use words like "it's a shame that they feel that way" about the Russian investigation, he could be in the high 40s or low 50s on approval right now, with disapproval right around that range.

I will say I'm skeptical of the "imagine if they were smart" comments, since I don't think a smart group would abuse their station as wantonly (well, before an idiot showed them it could be done.) Like the old chestnut of Napoleon/Hitler's military blunders, could they avoid their overconfidence and still be themselves/get as far as they did?
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
So,

The current situation on the Skinny repeal is that it doesn't meet the Byrd rule.. but debate that they opened ends in less than 24 hours, right?

So will they have to re-open debate on the bill in order to put the amendments on it that they needed to for parliamentary rules? Will they take the nuclear option?

It sort of seems like the Senate all kind of wandered off and is doing other things again and the media isn't covering it.
 
I wonder who the Dem candidate will be and if it's even someone we've heard of before.

Being a biased lifelong MA native I'd love Warren as the final Dem candidate but I admit I know very little about the inner workings of politics/campaigns if she has the appeal to win it all.
 
I mean, I would also say Hillary's team didn't use their data as well as they should have.
I think Mook thinking that not investing in Michigan or Wisconsin would trick the Trump team into thinking that their data was coming back so good that it would be pointless to try and contest there was more so the problem.

Probably the dumbest attempt at 4d chess I've ever heard of.
 
I wonder who the Dem candidate will be and if it's even someone we've heard of before.

It'll either be an establshed Senator or Oprah. But since we don't have any rumblings yet of Oprah even being interested thankfully I'll assume we won't have a reactionary non political billionaire running. Zuckerburg must realize it would be huge failure if he tried.
 

Blader

Member
The idea of Zuckerberg running is genuinely disturbing to me if only for the implications of how he could manipulate Facebook to shape public opinion.
 
The idea of Zuckerberg running is genuinely disturbing to me if only for the implications of how he could manipulate Facebook to shape public opinion.

I imagine the board would force him to relinquish his role to even run. That's another reason why it's so dumb, and I thought they couldn't go lower than that stupid phone.
 
The idea of Zuckerberg running is genuinely disturbing to me if only for the implications of how he could manipulate Facebook to shape public opinion.
I think people who think the idea of him running will be funny are off their rocker

He will obviously use Facebook to push himself and curtail his opponents. Even if he really sucks and falls flat his social media presence and the amount CNN will jerk off to the "OMG DEMOCRATIC TRUMP" narrative will soak up so much time from actual candidates who legitimately have something to say
 
I'm not sure this is clear.

I think it makes sense when you see how they basically eclipsed Trump in spending in Wisconsin the last few days of the campaign after spending nothing there the entire campaign. They realized too late what was happening.

I think Mook thinking that not investing in Michigan or Wisconsin would trick the Trump team into thinking that their data was coming back so good that it would be pointless to try and contest there was more so the problem.

Probably the dumbest attempt at 4d chess I've ever heard of.

Oh yeah, that too.

But that's also kind of why I like reading about losers.
 
I'm amazed how many people I talk to who view the 2016 election the same as they view 9/11. The day they woke up from their myopic dream where nothing bad ever happened and these sorts of catastrophes were for bad movies, not real life. A life-changing, history defining moment that will forever guide conversations into "before the election" and "after the election."

And people's endless and repeated rehashing of the primary is symptomatic of how difficult it is, even now, to accept their new reality. The constant nagging thought that it all could have been prevented if only one thing had been different or one person did their job better or we took one thing more seriously is what keeps people frozen in time and fixated on what happened instead of what happens next.

The biggest difference, of course, is that 9/11 brought most Americans together. It was a tragedy that we all connected over through our mutual victimhood. But Americans paralyzed and bewildered by Donald Trump's election victory must face their enemies on a daily basis. So instead of bringing people together, it divides people further apart, because nobody can stand to look their enemy in the face or humor them for their ideals. It puts people in a perpetual state of sensitivity and distress. It's a torment.

That's why Hillary's What Happened book is probably going to be popular. People will mitigate their stress in any way possible. This includes looking back to when things were different, and the future was supposed to be different, and they were happy.

Because honestly, since Trump won, I have not been truly happy in the capacity I know I am capable. It is a damper on my entire life. Rehashing the past isn't something that interests me personally, it actually makes it worse for me, but I can't tell people how to assuage their anxiety. The problem is that people can't separate what happened before and what has to happen now - not even Trump himself. We're all tethered to a post in the ground and can only run circles around it. People will either run out the clock or die trying.
 

pigeon

Banned
I think it makes sense when you see how they basically eclipsed Trump in spending in Wisconsin the last few days of the campaign after spending nothing there the entire campaign. They realized too late what was happening.

Doesn't it fit the data equally to assume that they saw huge unexpected late movement after Comey and tried their best to react?
 
Anyways, I look forward to relitigating the 2016 primary for the end of time.

Doesn't it fit the data equally to assume that they saw huge unexpected late movement after Comey and tried their best to react?

I mean, it also speaks to me that they never saw an issue with Wisconsin in the first place when even without Comey it probably would've been fairly close.
 

dramatis

Member
David Milliband is on Pod Save the World this week. Pretty serious conversation about the humanitarian crisis in the Middle East.

He makes a case for global responsibility.
 
Genuinely surprised

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/s...pointments/article/2629853?platform=hootsuite

Senate GOP blocking Trump from all recess appointments


Senate Republicans are committed to blocking President Trump from bypassing the confirmation process and replacing Attorney General Jeff Sessions with a recess appointment.

Indeed, as one Senate Republican explained to the Washington Examiner on Thursday, Senate Republicans made a collective decision in January to prevent Trump from making any recess appointment to his administration. That means the president is foreclosed from sidestepping Senate confirmation and replacing Sessions unilaterally during Congress' upcoming August recess.

"Recess appointments have never been an option for Trump," said the Republican senator.

Even if Republicans changed their mind, a near impossibility given their strong opposition to Trump's suggestion that he might fire Sessions, Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., would demand pro-forma sessions as a part of any recess adjournment motion. Schumer's office confirmed this to the Washington Examiner Thursday morning.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., did the same thing when he was the minority leader under Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and President Barack Obama.

Senate Republicans since January have blocked Trump from making recess appointments by holding pro-forma sessions every few days whenever the Senate is otherwise in recess. In doing so, the Senate is never technically in a period of recess that would enable the president, under the Constitution, to make an appointment to his administration that would otherwise require Senate confirmation.

In a pro-forma session, a senator quickly gavels the chamber in and out of session. It requires a senator to be present in Washington during the recess period, but junior members of the Republican conference early in the year agreed to perform this function for their colleagues, committing to dates for the balance of the year.

"Junior senators long ago picked two dates when they're on the hook to be in D.C. to gavel in and out," the GOP senator said.

Senate Republicans claim their ardent opposition to recess appointments stems from Obama's rogue recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board. The Obama administration claimed the Senate was in recess when the Senate was making no such claim. The dispute went to court and the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Senate.
 
So,

The current situation on the Skinny repeal is that it doesn't meet the Byrd rule.. but debate that they opened ends in less than 24 hours, right?

So will they have to re-open debate on the bill in order to put the amendments on it that they needed to for parliamentary rules? Will they take the nuclear option?

It sort of seems like the Senate all kind of wandered off and is doing other things again and the media isn't covering it.

The hope for the GOP was that something workable would actually get 50 votes, and then Mitch would basically have the all-clear to make that the bill. However, the only things that might get 50 votes are either ineligible for that threshold or they're so terrible that Dems would sweep the Senate map and gain like a million seats in the House (so bad we'll retroactively win the past 30 or so midterms). So now Mitch basically has to ignore this whole process because it was essentially a fishing expedition that came up empty-handed.

We're basically back to where we were before he got this plan; he'll have to come up with his own bill with his own name on it, with basically no help from his caucus.

The biggest difference, of course, is that 9/11 brought most Americans together. It was a tragedy that we all connected over through our mutual victimhood. But Americans paralyzed and bewildered by Donald Trump's election victory must face their enemies on a daily basis. So instead of bringing people together, it divides people further apart, because nobody can stand to look their enemy in the face or humor them for their ideals. It puts people in a perpetual state of sensitivity and distress. It's a torment.

I actually disagree with this. Sure, I still give the side-eye to white dudes here in rural MS because they suck, but here in rural MS, we had a women's march with hundreds of people, waving pride flags or homemade signs. And they weren't liberals getting bussed in either; lots of Southern wordplay (E.G. "Y'all means All" signs) and stuff parodying local sports teams.

I hate what our country is going through right now, but it has absolutely sparked a fire in people. You should look up some local political groups to meet up with; it's uplifting to see people fighting. And look at the last few months! The fight is working!
 
David Milliband is on Pod Save the World this week. Pretty serious conversation about the humanitarian crisis in the Middle East.

He makes a case for global responsibility.

The only podcast I listen to is My Brother, My Brother, and Me (lol) but I'm genuinely interested in this. It's already out?
 
I actually disagree with this. Sure, I still give the side-eye to white dudes here in rural MS because they suck, but here in rural MS, we had a women's march with hundreds of people, waving pride flags or homemade signs. And they weren't liberals getting bussed in either; lots of Southern wordplay (E.G. "Y'all means All" signs) and stuff parodying local sports teams.

I hate what our country is going through right now, but it has absolutely sparked a fire in people. You should look up some local political groups to meet up with; it's uplifting to see people fighting. And look at the last few months! The fight is working!

You're right. And something I didn't really take into account is whether you live in a Red area or a Blue area, because this absolutely affects your community environment.

I know a lot of people are activated in ways they never were before - I know I am - but it's not without the powerful and burdensome gravity of depression. Even when I feel hopeful or positive, it is with trepidation.
 
You're right. And something I didn't really take into account is whether you live in a Red area or a Blue area, because this absolutely affects your community environment.

I know a lot of people are activated in ways they never were before - I know I am - but it's not without the powerful and burdensome gravity of depression. Even when I feel hopeful or positive, it is with trepidation.

For sure. Every morning, it's "what new hell do we need to fight now?" And that gets tiring. I certainly wasn't super down with yesterday's BS. It's a long ass road, but it ain't impassable and it won't go on forever.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Ginsburg and Scalia Replacement from a 51-49 or 52-48 D Senate with a still R House majority is the alternate reality of Hillary today. Basically Obama 2nd term redux with Executive Orders remaining in tack. 2018 midterm defeat of the Romney 5 and 2, 3 out of 5 Swing State 5 losses bringing R's to a 8-10 Senate pickup. House stays R through the next decade. Continued down ballot losses and few if any State legislature or State Offices pickups.

Maybe Bi-partisan immigration reform but I doubt it.
 
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