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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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Downtown LA is building up like mad right now. We just finished wilshire grand, we're cranking on three giant towers called metropolis and I'm starting on a 24 story tower as well. All kinds of stuff going up. We're still way too spread out and have a ton of people though. Prices are high. Surrounding areas need to build up more too.
 

kirblar

Member
You're conflating low price housing with rural, but that isn't what the paper is arguing.

In other words housing is cheap, but not cheap in certain areas.

And it's not cheap in those areas because...
You are missing what causes those high price areas to explode.

(The existing owners who inevitably want to keep other people out.)

This will never exist in rural areas but will always appear in successful cities.

Edit: this is basically what it is arguing but that 99%statistic is hella misleading. Look only at cities
 

East Lake

Member
You are missing what causes those high price areas to explode.

(The existing owners who inevitably want to keep other people out.)

This will never exist in rural areas but will always appear in successful cities.

Edit: this is basically what it is arguing but that 99%statistic is hella misleading. Look only at cities
It doesn't always appear in successful cities, nobody is talking about rural areas. The paper doesn't make that claim.
 

kirblar

Member
It doesn't always appear in successful cities, nobody is talking about rural areas. The paper doesn't make that claim.
You asked this question: "Why wouldn't businesses just relocate to cheap housing areas?"

Answer: Because if a city is cheap it's likely in decline. Just like a business has issues if it stops growing, so does a city. And the other cheap areas are going to be "wherethehellarethepeople, USA".

Success breeds success. The reason tech goes nuts in places like Seattle, SF, DC, etc. is because there are other tech industry employers there and it results in workers and companies both being attracted to the area, building a Katamari ball of talent and employers utilizing that talent. If you set up shop in a lesser market you end up at a competitive disadvantage when attracting and recruiting talent.

The NIMBY issue we see in NYC, SF, and literally every other city is that property owners don't want to share. They see their taxes going up, their homevalues going up, and they want to keep the ball rolling and keep the "undesirables" out. And so they artificially restrict development to further buttress their position.
 
My broke Kenyan Muslim Uber driver grudgingly admitted that Trump doesn't care about the little guy but lit up with admiration and a little awe as he explained that the best antidote to a Trump presidency would be...


Trey Gowdy.
wUXn3RN.gif
 
This is a literal asking for a friend since I don’t live in Atlanta, but does anyone have a good resource for all the candidates running for mayor? Their policy policy positions, etc? Thanks in advance.
 

East Lake

Member
You asked this question: "Why wouldn't businesses just relocate to cheap housing areas?"
That's a legit question, and one I don't think has been adequately answered, probably part of the answer is that they do.

Answer: Because if a city is cheap it's likely in decline. Just like a business has issues if it stops growing, so does a city. And the other cheap areas are going to be "wherethehellarethepeople, USA".
Not necessarily. The paper doesn't claim that as far as I can tell.

Success breeds success. The reason tech goes nuts in places like Seattle, SF, DC, etc. is because there are other tech industry employers there and it results in workers and companies both being attracted to the area, building a Katamari ball of talent and employers utilizing that talent. If you set up shop in a lesser market you end up at a competitive disadvantage when attracting and recruiting talent.
This views success as a static phenomenon that doesn't change between cities. If you have success, then you have more success, thus higher housing prices and regulation in perpetuity.

The NIMBY issue we see in NYC, SF, and literally every other city is that property owners don't want to share. They see their taxes going up, their homevalues going up, and they want to keep the ball rolling and keep the "undesirables" out. And so they artificially restrict development to further buttress their position.
The paper uses Atlanta as an example. Lets note Atlanta is not rural.

The Atlanta market is a canonical example of the second type in which supply is highly elastic and demand always is strong enough keep prices at MPPC. This is the textbook example also depicted in Figure 3 in which demand intersects supply on its horizontal part. If demand grows by a little or a lot, a sufficient number of units is delivered so that developers cannot earn above normal profits. Figure 5 shows what happened to permitting activity in this market. New supply is highly volatile. Permitting intensity was running at 3% of market size in 1985, but then fell 50% by 1991, as the local economy declined. This was followed by a long building boom, as annual new supply more than doubled to nearly 4.5% of market size in 2005. The onset of the global financial crisis then saw permitting plummet to below 0.5% of market size by 2009, and it has only recently started to increase again in the Atlanta area. Amidst all this variation in new supply, the median owner's price-to-cost ratio never varies much from 1. This is consistent with the supply of housing being highly elastic and demand fluctuating about a horizontal supply schedule.

VQAcQ3c.jpg


That population growth has occurred during the time frame of the study. So to revisit and simplify lets note I don't think the paper claims successful city=highly inelastic housing stock.

Me: Why aren't businesses moving to cities with more sensible regulation.

You: White Rural america is dying

Me: I wasn't talking about rural america.

You: Success means higher prices.

Me: It does? The paper doesn't claim that.
 
I didn't know the Twin Cities were doing so well on growth. Minnesota's slated to lose a district in 2020.
We were really close to losing one last time. We just barely beat out North Carolina getting a 14th district.

I'm guessing the population's shedding in the rural areas. Anecdotally (taught in a farm community high school for two years) everyone outside of the cities is trying to get the fuck out of their hometown as quickly as possible. For some that means Minneapolis, but for most that means anywhere but Minnesota.
 

Zolo

Member
Hillary Clinton tells David Remnick that Russia’s infiltration of the electoral process is a “clear and present danger” that Republicans should take as seriously as Democrats do. Speaking about her new book, “What Happened,” Clinton says that the media failed voters by focussing coverage on scandals rather than policies and analyzes how sexism affected voters as they judged a woman who sought the highest office in the land.

No fucking lies on this one. I'll at least give TV networks that a large reason why it's covered is because that's what viewers want rather than critical analysis. They want to be entertained; not educated.
 

pigeon

Banned
Businesses do relocate to cheaper areas. The issue is actually that the networking effect from clustering together with other successful businesses went way up rather than down as people expected, so there's a big financial incentive to move to already crowded areas.
 

Ogodei

Member
Businesses do relocate to cheaper areas. The issue is actually that the networking effect from clustering together with other successful businesses went way up rather than down as people expected, so there's a big financial incentive to move to already crowded areas.

It's also that businesses move the labor-intensive components of themselves to cheaper areas. They all incorporate in Delaware or South Dakota anyway, so it's not like they care about tax purposes, but their headquarters, where they attract the top talent that runs the company, is going to be in the I-95 corridor, the sunbelt, Chicago, California, or Seattle in most cases.

Do your big-buck decisionmaking in Houston, your production in nowhere, MS, and your taxes in Wilmington.
 
No fucking lies on this one. I'll at least give TV networks that a large reason why it's covered is because that's what viewers want rather than critical analysis. They want to be entertained; not educated.
If people prioritized education over entertainment. News sites like PBS, AP, BBC and NPR would be some of the top news sites. While CNN and Fox would be gasping for air. Then again Trump being elected is the clearest example of the American people choosing entertainment over education.
 

simplayer

Member
According to the paper it does.
You’re conflating two things. Yes, housing is cheap there since they allow supply to keep up with demand. But they also sprawl out to get that supply rather than build up, or simply build tighter, which is bad for the environment.

The coastal cities should be building lots more housing units, but doing it with infill development rather than greenfield development.

And also super yay at the CA housing bills passing! I’m so happy the communities around here will start being held accountable for their housing decisions
 

East Lake

Member
I agree it's not the greatest for the environment but we're talking about inequality and whether it relates to housing prices and Atlanta responds well to housing demand or lack of. It is priced where it should be according to the paper. The other examples used were San Fran, which was too restricted and Detroit which had low prices but declining demand with a bunch of old houses discouraging new builds.

Detroit is a well-functioning housing market in the sense that developers are rational in not building much. They did not increase supply as prices rose during the national housing boom—because they still could not earn a normal entrepreneurial profit.
 
OK, so if we get to October it's effectively done for good, right? They can't do Reconciliation and would have to do something in the house and senate again?

They could try again next year when the entire house is up for re-election, which would track well with their political stupidity.
 

Kevinroc

Member
It was on CNN's homepage as a major story for today

I'm not claiming I know what's going to happen or be all doom and gloom. I thought for sure the "skinny repeal" would pass and it didn't. So I don't know what tomorrow will bring.

But I clicked on the headline and saw this:
Updated 7:25 PM ET, Tue September 12, 2017

This story is from the 12th. I don't know what CNN is thinking. (But I've wondered that quite a few times with CNN.)
 
I'm not claiming I know what's going to happen or be all doom and gloom. I thought for sure the "skinny repeal" would pass and it didn't. So I don't know what tomorrow will bring.

But I clicked on the headline and saw this:

This story is from the 12th. I don't know what CNN is thinking. (But I've wondered that quite a few times with CNN.)
I didn't even notice it was a kind of old story before posting.

I kind of figured front page news was not 4 days old
 

JP_

Banned
I'm not intimately familiar with the data but I feel like any city growth data that includes 2008-2010 will skew heavily toward the cheaper cities because of the financial crisis and people having to downgrade.
 

studyguy

Member
On a long drive up to northern CA atm. Listening to the Clinton book in audiobook form. First couple of chapters are extraordinary stiff (she's narrating). Mostly goes over what we all witnessed post election and night of on her loss, coping and the support she got afterwards. It feels like fluff to me since most people here were probably up on the details and know what generally went down... I admit it's interesting but it felt like retreading what most knew already. Adudiobook hard to gauge but this felt like 2 or 3 chapters long?


Then it feels like the book restarts and jumps back to the introduction nearly word for word with significantly different framing. Feel like this is where the book actually begins.

It starts with her motivation for running, justification is extraordinarily simple in just feeling qualified enough though she languishes for quite a while and it goes over how many people drove her to actually run when she was still unsure. At one point it mentions Obama sending plouffe over with this long presentation to bust her chops about timing and how late she is if she really is intending to run. She goes over what she was doing in the Clinton foundation and cited all the things they accomplished (a lot I hadn't heard of and it's impressive). She sounds almost sad to have left the organization to run, but the justification of doing more good for more people in one day from the oval office than an entire year of the organization's efforts is understandable.

I'm still really early but the stiffness I mentioned earlier disappeared completely once this part of the book starts, she sounds and the prose sounds much more upbeat discussing granular details of politics. It mentions her early low key meetings with people around the country well before her campaign is put into real gear. It gets super deep in the weeds in terms of just how quickly her team was built to respond to virtually every issue she crossed. A single conversation with a grand mother affected by opiates turns into half a chapter response to building an effective countermeasure to addiction and what legislative measures could be taken in response that would pass even stout GOP interference. It sounds so hopeful compared to the Trump response highlighted by what's going on now in the book. It's pretty depressing.

Anyway. Still listening. Nearly 4hrs in now(of 16? Hard to tell where I'm at with the adudiobook).
Pardon odd spelling, on mobile.
 

Ogodei

Member
I'm not intimately familiar with the data but I feel like any city growth data that includes 2008-2010 will skew heavily toward the cheaper cities because of the financial crisis and people having to downgrade.

If anything it's the other way around. The financial crisis did hurt some cities (those in the real estate bubble like Miami, Phoenix, and Las Vegas), but overall it hastened the decline of less-dynamic areas because the old jobs disappeared while the replacement jobs, if any, occurred in the top growth cities.
 
Said it before and I'll say it again: Trump becoming president will be the worst thing that ever happened to him. His empire will be in ruins.

If Clinton had become president any investigation against him would have been dropped in the interest of creating unity. Only one presidential candidate last year swore to lock the other one up.
 

JP_

Banned
If anything it's the other way around. The financial crisis did hurt some cities (those in the real estate bubble like Miami, Phoenix, and Las Vegas), but overall it hastened the decline of less-dynamic areas because the old jobs disappeared while the replacement jobs, if any, occurred in the top growth cities.
Not sure how accurate it is to describe high growth as more dynamic. Texas ranks high on that growth list but a lot of that growth was the shale boom, rather than innovative policy or new industry.
 
So my nearest minor league baseball team is going under, so I did some research on them for nostalgias sake and to see what or why it happened

Discovered that the city bought the land the stadium is on 20 years ago, from, of course, Donald Trump, for $1, in exchange for forgiveness in all the taxes didn't pay to the city
 
So my nearest minor league baseball team is going under, so I did some research on them for nostalgias sake and to see what or why it happened

Discovered that the city bought the land the stadium is on 20 years ago, from, of course, Donald Trump, for $1, in exchange for forgiveness in all the taxes didn't pay to the city
This is why I hate whenever people tout Trump's business acumen. Trump got to where he is by cheating. Cheating and then not just getting away with it, being rewarded for it.

He's the biggest fraud in the country so of course he gets the top job. Jesus Christ.
 

kirblar

Member
Holy shit, Trump had to pay Three Doors Down $25 mil to play his inauguration. That's hilarious.
Holy fucking shit lololololololololol

Are they just running a gigantic grift by playing conservative events because no one else will?

edit: that figure includes Toby Keith and all the setup and other stuff, its not as bad as it looks. (but its still bad)
 
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