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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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F

Futurevoid

Member
studyguy said:
https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/913089829113655297


https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/913088395286597633


Man make a hard statement or don't, waffling on what will be your response to aid after a humanitarian disaster sounds shit.
Click to expand...

So you're taking the side of industry over the lives of 3.4 million American citizens who are in an extreme humanitarian crisis and NEED help to survive. The fact that he just outright states "well the shipping industry doesn't want it"...good for them but you're the president fucktard. Peoples lives matter more than the shipping industry. Christ!
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Cybit said:
he turned into a pundit, by his own admission, and made a bunch of qualitative calls outside his model. He trusted the model in the general, and it worked out, because his model went further back and used more historical data than the other models in many cases. the "states are correlated with each other" setting is a pretty good example of "pure math" vs "math + history".
Click to expand...

Yeah, the main reason to assume states are uncorrelated is because it makes building the model easier. Unfortunately, it doesn't reflect reality very well. This is actually a pretty common problem with implementation of regression analysis. People want to accept the "standard" assumptions out of convenience without putting in the thought as to why or whether they should hold. A model is only as good as its assumptions are valid, and people generally put way too little thought into the assumptions.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
Does anyone ever use COBRA?

It's more expensive than the money you get from unemployment every month. There's no way the people it's meant for can actually afford it...

Edit: Wikipedia says only 10% of eligible people use it. So yea, nobody uses COBRA.
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I used it when I was out of work. It is definitely useful if you have a short employment gap but mine ended up being not-so-short.

And yes, it’s just keeping your work coverage but paying the full premium.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
kirblar said:
(because you're paying the part normally subsidized by your employer)
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One of those things that should be reformed, but could be swept aside by Medicare buy-in or Medicare for All anyway.

Edit: i've got an option for COBRA right now (laid off last month, but they gave me severance, so health insurance runs out this week). $450 a month i'd have to pay which is barking mad. I'm starting a permanent job next month but won't get the insurance until November so i need to find myself a nice cut-rate plan on the exchanges.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Quinnipiac national

Trump approval 36-57

Generic ballot 47 D 38 R

Bubble has popped

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487
Click to expand...

2Lg8xIK.gif
 
V

Vixdean

Member
People don't get it, insurance isn't sold across state lines because the healthcare markets themselves localized to each state. Even if all legal barriers to it were removed, you'd still only see it on a very small scale. Along with tort reform, which was actually tried in some states and had a negligible effect on cost, it's just another conservative magic bean for healthcare reform.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
kirblar said:
He also put up a clickbait model that did nothing but swing wildly.

If you're gonna be the numbers guy, be the numbers guy, not a beltway pundit w/ bad soundbites.
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I loved the nowcast model, it was a) a keen indicator of who actually paid attention to what they were reading and b) a really good way to reverse engineer a lot of his model. The nowcast model exposed a ton of people who didn't know squat about polling, probability, or modeling, lol.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Basileus777 said:
Chad is majority Muslim.
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See I thought some dude named Chad wrote a negative article about him in the New Yorker 20 Years ago and he was remonded about it recently like “That’s it, Chad’s on the travel ban list!”
And his staff was like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
A

AndyD

aka andydumi
kirblar said:
(because you're paying the part normally subsidized by your employer)
Click to expand...

I really don't think people realize that part. It shows the true cost of a plan.

I really do wish employers made it more clear because it would really drive home the cost of healthcare to many people. If the tax exemption for this goes, be prepared for a lot of awakening.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
This is to date, but they think they'll eventually outraise Moore.
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I chipped in five bucks on a weekly donation, which I probably wouldn't have done had Strange won.

Obama should drop a robocall the night before. Don't do it too early for risk of turning the race into a referendum on... well, race. But activate that high floor AA turnout before the Republicans can even notice.

Biden headlining rallies is probably inoffensive enough, one because he's white, two because he was just VP and three because he's a *former* VP so it neutralizes his ability to hurt candidates in red states somewhat.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Gotta love how CNN is running with Trump's "We have the votes for healthcare" as Breaking News!! so as to make their town hall seem the least bit relevant.
 
T

tbm24

Member
Man it’s hard to not be in awe at the balls on Trump to lie as hard and as blatant as he does. Says in speech he sees a lot of red hats, fake news reports they only counted 3.
 
Z

Zolo

Member
tbm24 said:
Man it’s hard to not be in awe at the balls on Trump to lie as hard and as blatant as he does. Says in speech he sees a lot of red hats, fake news reports they only counted 3.
Click to expand...

Yeah. It's hard to see how people view him as honest when he tells a lot of provable lies.
 
L

lush

Member
"If Senator Donnelly doesn't approve it... we will come here, we will campaign against him like you wouldn't believe."

How he ended his invite only tax reform speech a day after deleting all of his tweets stumping for Strange.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
dramatis said:
Why Is Chad On Trump's Travel Ban List?

The short answer: no one knows why. An attempt to look like they aren't discriminating against Muslims?
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Chad's soldiers cooperate/train with UN/US soldiers in combating terrorism. This came from the left field.

However, Chad recently found huge oil reserves, and tried to impose exorbitant fees on...Exxon-Mobil. Guess who likes oil and works for Trump. This is not a conspiracy theory, but brought up by NPR.
 
X

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
Emerson said:
The Republican party has a pretty long history of giving the middle class a small tax break as cover for much larger tax cuts for the rich while further screwing the poor.

I would be very surprised if their tax plan actively raises taxes on the middle class. You can't sell that to the average Republican voter, and increases in taxes are one thing you can't just pretend didn't happen. People notice.
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You must be posting in an alternate timeline where Republicans didn’t just try to screw over their own constituents with multiple attempts at fucking up healthcare. Their base isn’t just middle class either, so them screwing the poor with this tax bill hurts the people who voted for them as well.

They don’t care.
 
B

Blader

Member
Zolo said:
Yeah. It's hard to see how people view him as honest when he tells a lot of provable lies.
Click to expand...
People who think Trump is honest believed in those lies to begin with and recognize Trump as the first/only person to express what they had already believed to be true.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
lush said:
"If Senator Donnelly doesn't approve it... we will come here, we will campaign against him like you wouldn't believe."

How he ended his invite only tax reform speech a day after deleting all of his tweets stumping for Strange.
Click to expand...

I remember when he threatened to do that to all of the Trump-state Dems who would (and did) reject Trumpcare. He called for football stadium rallies to call out McCaskill, Casey, Brown, et al.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
kirblar said:
NYT got a private GOP memo on Alabama- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-the-Memo-on-the-Implications-of-Alabama.html


Translation: They expect to get smashed in '18.
Click to expand...
Gee who would have thought building a cult of personality around a petty nincompoop like Trump who's not used to dealing with bureaucracy or conflict would possibly backfire

The scariest thing has to be even when he lends his support to an establishment candidate, that doesn't mean shit for their electoral prospects. Strange got the red carpet treatment and lost in a landslide. How do you think senators like Jeff Flake or Dean Heller are going to fare with Trump actively encouraging primary challengers against them?
 
M

Mark Andrew

Member
Democratic Congressman on CNN very clearly making the connection between Jared Kushner and Russia’s microtargeting of Facebook ads. He either knows something or is being extremely reckless.
 
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