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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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Teggy

Member
Jonathan Martin on Twitter said:
A Big Luther official tells me their polling had him close gap some, but Trump off-msg rally comments only gave permission for folks to bail

Too good.


Also, RIP Hugh Hefner. You had a lot of sex.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Sam Wang‏Verified account @SamWangPhD

Election geeks: Princeton Gerrymandering Project has published state legislative election data 1971-2012 http://election.princeton.edu/2017/09/26/new-dataset-state-legislative-elections-1971-2012/ ... '13-16 soon
The Princeton Gerrymandering Project has just published a new dataset of state legislative elections from 1972 to present, containing over 72,000 elections.

Edit: Oh, that's interesting - Twitter is showing me timestamps in PST, now? Wonderful. That's only 14 hours behind where I'm currently living. :(
 
Edit: Oh, that's interesting - Twitter is showing me timestamps in PST, now? Wonderful. That's only 14 hours behind where I'm currently living. :(
I'm not terribly optimistic about this, but I do hope there's a strong effort to flip legislatures, governor's seats and implement nonpartisan redistricting wherever possible. For how sexy the presidential race always is, voters are terrible at recognizing how important Congress is to the governing process. To the extent that most people think about it, they probably just think the president can just bully them into doing whatever he (or she... someday) wants, even if the composition is heavily stacked against them.

But had people actually come out and vote in 2010 and 2014 (and even last year!), we could have a Dem House or Senate severely diminishing Trump's power. A Dem Senate could have gotten Garland through during Obama's last year.
 

Pixieking

Banned
To the extent that most people think about it, they probably just think the president can just bully them into doing whatever he (or she... someday) wants, even if the composition is heavily stacked against them.

I'm wondering if Trump's presidency will alter the general electorate's view of Congress. It's patently obvious that he can't bully the House or Senate into doing what he wants, and a good percentage of his tweets are just angry rants about how this Senator or that Representative sucks. I'm not too hopeful of it, but with the media playing-up Trump's obvious impotence, plus Alabama voters ignoring him, there's a chance people will actually change how they view the Presidency vis a vis Congress.
 
I'm wondering if Trump's presidency will alter the general electorate's view of Congress. It's patently obvious that he can't bully the House or Senate into doing what he wants, and a good percentage of his tweets are just angry rants about how this Senator or that Representative sucks. I'm not too hopeful of it, but with the media playing-up Trump's obvious impotence, plus Alabama voters ignoring him, there's a chance people will actually change how they view the Presidency vis a vis Congress.
I think this is a good point - Obama set the bar pretty high for himself because his first two years, he had a cooperative Congress that was generally interested in passing the same things he wanted passed. Most people tune out of midterm elections anyway so their perception is probably that Obama spent his first two years getting all these great things done and then just stopped, and this is something that speaks poorly of his character or leadership. He was "just another politician" the whole time!

Whereas it's pretty clear exactly how toxic the relationship is between Trump and Congress, even when it's controlled by "his" party.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Sam Wang‏Verified account @SamWangPhD

Election geeks: Princeton Gerrymandering Project has published state legislative election data 1971-2012 http://election.princeton.edu/2017/0...ons-1971-2012/ … '13-16 soon

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project has just published a new dataset of state legislative elections from 1972 to present, containing over 72,000 elections.

Edit: Oh, that's interesting - Twitter is showing me timestamps in PST, now? Wonderful. That's only 14 hours behind where I'm currently living. :(

I can confirm that is a lot of numbers. I wonder what can be done with it.

I am curious about what sort of wave is needed for democratic control of the house, especially regarding how swingy swing districts really are. My theory is that swing districts move faster than national moves and it would be nice to prove it.
 
Via yesterday's mini-rant, at least Trump's motive of trying to put the NFL out of business has been revealed. As we've come to expect with every other subject, he's unable to let anything go. Even the owners and management that love him and can sorta tolerate a free speech argument within their teams aren't going to want to hear talk of lower TV ratings and their business hurt. Even if you could magically create a "you must stand for anthem" rule that's not a thing that would somehow end the disagreements on the matter. Some players are still going to do it. Some teams are going to continue to grandstand. Some teams are going to continue to be cowards. Etc. All he has to do it tweet about it every Sunday and it will drag on the entire rest of his presidency.

I'm still impressed that Trump has managed to further divide the country via the NF-Freaking-L. The rawest and most extreme form of American entertainment/violence handed to the masses. The most American of all American activities below excessive military spending and institutional racism.

Would like to add that, despite slowly souring on the NFL and having given up on you and college football over the years from the whole brain damage thing, if I could be reassured that Trump would be personally annoyed at higher viewership in the coming weeks I would go out of my way to watch more games.
 

Chichikov

Member
Iowa needs to go away just so we can avoid the Iowa state fair and awkward pictures of politicians trying to eat corndogs.
The Iowa state fair on a presidential election year is a sight to behold. I've been there in 2007 and that shit is bananas.
You need to see it before you die, plan to it like it's an eclipse.

I also ate a fried stick of butter. It was a good trip. I regret nothing.
 

chadskin

Member
DKwMzG5X0AAob32.jpg
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Alana HorowitzSatlin‏Verified account @achorowitz

Trump just told Fox News that some NFL owners are "afraid of their players." Dog whistles getting loud enough for humans to hear now...

Welp, this was inevitable.
 
Trump finally waived the Jones act for Puerto Rico. Only a week later.

It's really just Katrina all over again but because half of our citizenship doesn't realize it's part of the US, they couldn't give a fuck.
 

Blader

Member
I saw Michelle Obama yesterday morning and Roger Waters last night. That was hell of a 1-2.

Waters' Pigs performance is so hilariously, over-the-top anti-Trump, it's incredible. The highlight of the show.
 

Blader

Member
Republicans just like to complain. I grew up listening to Rush in the Clinton years and the Bush years. He was never happy. He was constantly foaming at the mouth about something.
 
Republicans just like to complain. I grew up listening to Rush in the Clinton years and the Bush years. He was never happy. He was constantly foaming at the mouth about something.

It's quite sad. They're in a blind rage 24/7, even when their guy is in office.

At least when Obama was in office, I felt at ease, mostly, with the state of the world.
 
Just saying what everyone’s thinking amirite?

In Puerto Rico news, Jones act waived. How long not sure. Guess trump coming out and saying he hasn’t done it because of shipping companies did him in.

I vote that we let him keep getting dunked on anytime he opens his mouth, seems to help
 

Patryn

Member
If Drudge is already turning against this bill.... yeesh.

It's amazing how the past decade or so has just made the Republicans so fucking terrible as a governing party. Even taking out how much their agenda repulses me, it's amazing how they have lost all their skill at actually achieving anything.

I suppose this is the result of writing off the entirety of the opposition party and needing complete unanimity in order to achieve anything.
 
McConnell’s guy summed it up best. The base hates establishment Republicans just as much as they hated Obama.
Yup - everyone who was in office during the Obama years is considered responsible.

When Trump made the argument that Clinton was a bad senator because some tax loophole bill she passed was vetoed by Bush, I one thought it was very stupid and two knew that plenty of people would think the same thing as Trump, disregarding the context (once again, that Bush was president and vetoed it). These are the people who would run for county school board on the promise of repealing Obamacare.
 
Via yesterday's mini-rant, at least Trump's motive of trying to put the NFL out of business has been revealed. As we've come to expect with every other subject, he's unable to let anything go. Even the owners and management that love him and can sorta tolerate a free speech argument within their teams aren't going to want to hear talk of lower TV ratings and their business hurt. Even if you could magically create a "you must stand for anthem" rule that's not a thing that would somehow end the disagreements on the matter. Some players are still going to do it. Some teams are going to continue to grandstand. Some teams are going to continue to be cowards. Etc. All he has to do it tweet about it every Sunday and it will drag on the entire rest of his presidency.

I'm still impressed that Trump has managed to further divide the country via the NF-Freaking-L. The rawest and most extreme form of American entertainment/violence handed to the masses. The most American of all American activities below excessive military spending and institutional racism.

Would like to add that, despite slowly souring on the NFL and having given up on you and college football over the years from the whole brain damage thing, if I could be reassured that Trump would be personally annoyed at higher viewership in the coming weeks I would go out of my way to watch more games.

A lot of people I know keep saying shit like "fire them and let someone else play" but a big reason people have drifted from the NFL is the lack of talent parity. No team owner is going to bench anybody over these protests. It'd be a disaster.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
A lot of people I know keep saying shit like "fire them and let someone else play" but a big reason people have drifted from the NFL is the lack of talent parity. No team owner is going to bench anybody over these protests. It'd be a disaster.

Well, they did bench Kaepernick over it, which is what lead to someone on ESPN getting outspoken about it, which lead to Trump getting pissy about it.

He's not the best quarterback, but he has to be better than many others, like that garbage Jay Cutler.
 

Farmboy

Member
Does anyone else think Trump's "senator in the hospital" comments are an addled brain mixing up a sequence of events around John McCain?

Was actually the first thing that came to my mind, yeah. But that's stupid even for him.

Btw, odds Moore will win in December are still pretty high right?
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
Republicans just like to complain. I grew up listening to Rush in the Clinton years and the Bush years. He was never happy. He was constantly foaming at the mouth about something.

It's quite sad. They're in a blind rage 24/7, even when their guy is in office.

At least when Obama was in office, I felt at ease, mostly, with the state of the world.

At 44, I grew up when Rush was getting started in the 80s. I think he helped pioneer the modern republican PR strategy: always be unhappy. Limbaugh figured out early on that struggling poor and middle class white people responded well to constant bitching about the world.
 
Campaigns spend millions of dollars during general elections on canvassing; phone banking; advertising on TV, radio, and the internet; and other efforts designed to win over undecided voters and supporters of the opposing candidate. The new study’s authors, UC Berkeley political scientist Joshua Kalla and Stanford professor David Broockman, conclude that essentially no one targeted is persuaded.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...t-work-general-election-study-kalla-broockman

The "analysts" and "consultants" are laughing all the way to the bank.
 

JP_

Banned
https://www.vox.com/2017/9/26/16368988/doug-jones-roy-moore-opponent

Democrats ought to invest in Doug Jones’s campaign against Roy Moore:
For starters, the party needs to show that it stands for something and will fight for it even on unfavorable terrain. Moore’s blatant support for unconstitutional religious discrimination, overt hostility to the rule of law, and backing for a grossly regressive tax scheme violates core principles, and Democrats ought to be seen as fighting back against this vision everywhere.

Second, if a real race is joined, then Republicans nationally will of course do their part to support Moore, and in doing so, they will help further discredit themselves. Letting Moore run without meaningful opposition lets Republicans help themselves to his Senate seat without getting his stink on themselves — which would be a mistake.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...t-work-general-election-study-kalla-broockman

The "analysts" and "consultants" are laughing all the way to the bank.
I thought this was basically already known? My understanding is that the vast majority of canvassing efforts are about making sure that people actually show up to the polls, rather than trying to flip voters.
 
https://www.vox.com/2017/9/26/16368988/doug-jones-roy-moore-opponent

Democrats ought to invest in Doug Jones’s campaign against Roy Moore:


I thought this was basically already known? My understanding is that the vast majority of canvassing efforts are about making sure that people actually show up to the polls, rather than trying to flip voters.

His stink? It's almost like liberals forgot who is president right now. I'm all for supporting Jones, even though he won't win. But this idea that Moore is some extremist and voters could be turned off in Alabama strikes me as not only weird, but just the type of non-local, out-of-state hand wringing that leads democrats to get stuff like this wrong. Politics is local. I understand that people on Vox or Buzzfeed may be stunned/disgusted at someone saying Newtown was God's punishment, but go hang around some deeply religious people in the south and you'll find that type of ideology is widespread. And Moore is a hero to those people.
 
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