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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
Eh, Maryland and Jersey are still heavily Dem with a good clip of whites who vote Dem and Wyoming is staunchly GOP despite having no black people.

I agree with the general principle of your post but think it's more complicated.
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Throw in a rural vs metropolitan ratio and you probably have solved for Z.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Trump ticked down to 36/59 on Gallup today, closer to his usual.

People should recognize by now that every time Trump wades into racial discussions, he gets a bump for like, a day from his dumbass cheerleaders, only for the rest of the nation to process their disgust and put his numbers right back where they were (or worse).

But yeah, Trump is teflon because he criticized the NFL and wasn't immediately impeached.

Could also be a reaction to Graham-Cassidy failing or mishandling Puerto Rico, I suppose.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Mac_Lane said:
Those numbers are insane. I read that Jones needed at least 30% of the white vote if he wanted to have a real shot.
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Correct. After 1964 Democratic wins in the South mostly came and still come from a coalition of the AA vote and a plurality of whites.

John Bel Edwards won about 37-38% of the white vote and 95% of the AA vote. He beat Vitter 56%-44%.

If you could ever find a way to get whites to consistent vote atleast 40% Democratic down here while maintaining the AA vote this region could be easily Democratic.
 
T

Teggy

Member
This is quite impressive

Will Jordan @williamjordann
Mitch McConnell Job Approval among 2016 Trump Voters (via @YouGovUS)

Feb +21
Mar +15
Apr +17
May +12
Jun +10
Jul +4
Aug -18

Now -42
10:33 PM · Sep 27, 2017
Click to expand...
 
K

kirblar

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Republican majorities makes it high. Especially crossed with their ability to just lie blatantly about it.
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It'll be on Murkowski/Collins again w/ McCain pushing "Regular Order" again. (considering Corker's hinting statements, McCain seems to just be trying to run out the clock here.)
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
BoogieWoogie said:
When's his term up? Someone primary his ass.
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2020.

His approval ratings suck in Kentucky too. PPP had him trailing a generic Democratic opppnent by 7 points. I wouldn't be surprised if he hung it up in shame - how must it feel to achieve everything you've ever worked towards only to realize you were never up for the job and have no ideas of your own?
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Correct. After 1964 Democratic wins in the South mostly came and still come from a coalition of the AA vote and a plurality of whites.

John Bel Edwards won about 37-38% of the white vote and 95% of the AA vote. He beat Vitter 56%-44%.

If you could ever find a way to get whites to consistent vote atleast 40% Democratic down here while maintaining the AA vote this region could be easily Democratic.
Click to expand...

Even just 30% would move all statewide races into the toss up category. But it's a hard fight when the odds of finding a white person who doesn't vote straight GOP are in the gutter.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
cartoon_soldier said:
Republican majorities makes it high. Especially crossed with their ability to just lie blatantly about it.
Click to expand...

Eh, when more detailed numbers come out giving real figures to how badly the lower and middle-class families get hosed, it's not going to be pretty.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
In addition to flipping all the various swing/blue state legislatures (FL Senate, MN House, MI House etc) I really hope DLCC makes a strong effort to break the stranglehold the GOP holds over many of their red states. We're already seeing some of that action in Oklahoma where Democrats have racked up an impressive record of flipping House/Senate races, but they're so deep in the hole there that it doesn't make a huge difference practically speaking.

We need to start winning 40-45% of seats in these red states to actually have some power and leverage. A big part of that will come from natural anti-GOP backlash, but also we just need to run as many candidates as possible. We got 88 in the Virginia House this year, over 56 two years ago. That's good, but we should be aiming for 100%.

Tuesday we had a great candidate for Florida Senate and a shitty, underfunded candidate for Florida House. We won the first one and lost the latter, even though their PVI was pretty close. I know it's more difficult to recruit for these smaller races, but we need to make the effort.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
It's the second-most-white state in the country. It's homogenous.

You get more liberal policies when places are more urban and more homogenous. You can have one without the other, though.
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I mean, it also doesn't explain why Vermont is so liberal and Wyoming is so conservative. There are other factors than just urban v. rural and white v. diverse.

benicillin said:
The only reason Vermont is so solidly liberal and 50 or 60 years ago was staunchly Republican is because it's where a bunch of NYC and Boston liberals ended up moving in the 60s.
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It's more than New England Republicanism became out of step with what was happening at the federal level, not dissimilar to Dixiecrats. But even then, that's a broad generalization and there are other reasons, like migratory patterns of people, religiosity, etc.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
Sure, but it's a good ballpark estimate of what's going on! There will always be exceptions.
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Yeah, but the exception was specifically mentioned as one of the reasons why Vermont was so liberal (it was so homogenous and white, like Oregon). But that doesn't work. We were specifically discussing Vermont.
 
D

DTC

Member
NeoXChaos said:
agreed. You put Moore in other southern states such as Oklahoma, Louisiana, Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, & West Virginia he still wins easy.
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Hey! Georgia may be conservative and southern, but it's purple enough to where I think there'd be enough people there who would reject Moore.

North Carolina is even more purple, so I would definitely see that turn blue if Moore was the candidate.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
DTC said:
Hey! Georgia may be conservative and southern, but it's purple enough to where I think there'd be enough people there who would reject Moore.

North Carolina is even more purple, so I would definitely see that turn blue if Moore was the candidate.
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As North Carolinian, I'd like to believe that, but we didn't turn blue with Trump as a candidate.

But we'll always have 2008.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
whyamihere said:
I mean, it also doesn't explain why Vermont is so liberal and Wyoming is so conservative. There are other factors than just urban v. rural and white v. diverse.



It's more than New England Republicanism became out of step with what was happening at the federal level, not dissimilar to Dixiecrats. But even then, that's a broad generalization and there are other reasons, like migratory patterns of people, religiosity, etc.
Click to expand...

Idaho and Utah would probably fit the religiosity aspect. 95% and 89% white respectively.
 
B

Blader

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Republican majorities makes it high. Especially crossed with their ability to just lie blatantly about it.
Click to expand...
This is based on the assumption that Republicans are at a consensus on tax reform. They aren't.

Not staying they won't pass a bill, but it'll be harder to corral Republicans around a unifying tax package than on a healthcare package.
 
K

kirblar

Member
theCalamity said:
Has this been posted?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/amp/poll-democrats-can-t-take-millennial-vote-granted-n804836
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One of these things is not like the other!
chart4_democraticpartycaresaboutpeoplelike_2beda44e27864c4217b5b3e64ae866a8.nbcnews-ux-2880-1000.png
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(and captures the issue with trying to explicitly reach out to groups a,b and c, because group D gets really mad when you do!)
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
PPPPPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2017/09/2018-shaping-up-big-for-democrats.html

Democrats picked up big wins in special elections in Florida and New Hampshire this week, and PPP's newest national poll finds there might be a lot more where that came from. Democrats continue to hold a double digit lead on the generic Congressional ballot at 48-37, which should position them to pick up a lot of seats across the country next year.
Click to expand...

Donald Trump continues to be unpopular with 42% of voters approving of him to 53% who disapprove. Some new issues that have cropped up in the last few weeks are causing him problems in addition to the ongoing issues causing his unpopularity. Only 37% of voters think it's appropriate for him to refer to a foreign leader as 'Rocket Man' to 56% who think it's inappropriate. Only 24% of voters think it's appropriate for him to use campaign funds to pay for his legal expenses, to 64% who think it's inappropriate. And only 20% of voters think it's appropriate for his cabinet secretaries to fly on taxpayer funded private plans, to 71% who say it's inappropriate.
Click to expand...

Trump continues to fare very poorly in possible match ups against Democrats for 2020. We tested Hillary Clinton against Trump this month for the first time, mostly as a baseline for comparison against other possible Democratic candidates, and Clinton leads Trump by 5 points at 47/42. 3 Democrats we tested clearly perform more strongly against Trump than Clinton- Joe Biden who leads by 13 points at 53/40, Bernie Sanders who leads by 11 points at 51/40, and Michelle Obama who leads by 10 points at 51/41. Biden and Sanders both win over 10% of people who voted for Trump last fall while losing almost no Clinton voters.

Other Democrats we tested against Trump are Cory Booker who leads him 47/40, Elizabeth Warren who leads him 47/41, Kirsten Gillibrand who leads him 42/39, and Kamala Harris who leads him 41/40. The percentage support the Democrat gets in these match ups varies from 41% to 53% probably depending on their name recognition, but Trump's support is pretty constant in the 39-42% range against all of these possible challengers.

Voters also wish by a 52/41 margin that Barack Obama was still President instead of Trump.
Click to expand...
 
K

kirblar

Member
Harris/Gillibrand seem like a clear name recognition issue in that poll.

Warren has to regret not running, given that "even though she has all of Clinton's downsides, except actually being Hillary Clinton and her specific past" almost certainly would have been enough to win.
 
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