whyamihere
Banned
It's tough but I think there's an opening to win AL-Senate
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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That seems really close for Alabama, damn.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Doug Jones, moderate darling?
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
that close in bama'? 18 elections are going to be disastrous for gop
If that actually happens the wave in 2018 might be something special.
Either that or Moore is too nutty even for Alabama
dar-lin if Im up on my regional dialect
Personally think Democrats should just send money Jones's way and then leave it. You nationalize this race, you lose it.
Mark Andrew
Member
Quick someone teach Doug Jones how to ride a horse
Yes.
BoboBrazil
Member
Can Doug Jones bring a gun on stage?
Yeah I see what you mean. I dont think it being front and center like Ossoff was all the time is necessary. Just send the money and focus on the race where and when it counts.
Yep. Only chance for a win is depressing Republican turn-out and VERY high Democrat turn-out.
Yeah, you make it another big "Can Dems win this one!" national story, you just make it harder.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Millennials are going to slowly make the country better and then Gen Z is going to come in and wreck everything when we're too old to care anymore.
More libertarian and more religious doesn't really seem out of the ordinary for a generation born and raised during a historically terrible recession. It's sad, and disappointing, but not unbelievable.
More libertarian and more religious doesn't really seem out of the ordinary for a generation born and raised during a historically terrible recession. It's sad, and disappointing, but not unbelievable.
benicillin
Banned
Oh god not here too.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Meh. that would still make him go up.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Doug Jones was great in roles from across the political spectrum, from Abe Sapien to the Faun to the Pale Man. He has the perfect background to be the ultimate moderate darling.
Box of Kittens
Banned
It's definitely worth investing in. You don't want the DSCC to come in so hard it nationalizes the race but, yeah, they should put in some money.
IggyChooChoo
Member
"Dah-lin"
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
The Atlantic has hinted as much.
whyamihere
Banned
Agreed.
This continues to be a false theory of how races get "nationalized."
It's already a national story because Roy Moore is a lunatic and also all Senate races are automatically nationalized. We can't actually control that.
The road can go anywhere at the state level.
This isn't true. "Moderate Darling" plays very well in state level races in both blue and red states. Because those politicians adapt.
I'm sorry to kill your hopes and dreams guys, but that poll looks like total junk. 37% of White people support Jones, but 25% of African Americans support Roy Moore? Why is Moore doing so well w/ AA's? Why is Jones doing so well with white people? That seems completely off from previous election results in Alabama.
Lets look at the fundamentals of Alabama:
54% Republican
33% Democrat
13% Independent
Trump 53%-42% Approval
People overwhelmingly disapprove of the NFL Protest
Evangelicals are 55% of the voters.
Alabama is the 2nd most inelastic state in the United States. (Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/)
The take away from this post is don't get your hopes up. If this race gets nationalized with the headlines that "Dems can actually win this!", morale is going to plummet when Jones inevitably gets destroyed. I'll be super happy if the margin is under 12% in favor of Moore. It's Alabama.
I'll revise my stance if there are multiple other polls that show Jones is competitive. I need much more than one poll to show that Jones has a chance in a state as uncompetitive and inelastic as Alabama.
Lets look at the fundamentals of Alabama:
54% Republican
33% Democrat
13% Independent
Trump 53%-42% Approval
People overwhelmingly disapprove of the NFL Protest
Evangelicals are 55% of the voters.
Alabama is the 2nd most inelastic state in the United States. (Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/)
The take away from this post is don't get your hopes up. If this race gets nationalized with the headlines that "Dems can actually win this!", morale is going to plummet when Jones inevitably gets destroyed. I'll be super happy if the margin is under 12% in favor of Moore. It's Alabama.
I'll revise my stance if there are multiple other polls that show Jones is competitive. I need much more than one poll to show that Jones has a chance in a state as uncompetitive and inelastic as Alabama.
Basileus777
Member
Yeah, there's no way to slip a contested Alabama Senate race under the radar, especially when it is the only Senate race going on.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Who's getting their hopes up about AL-Sen? The most optimistic take is that Jones has a small chance of winning if everything goes our way. I want to invest in this race because I think we should invest everywhere, not because I think "Jones has totally got this."
Yeah this. Don't think anyone in this forum, probably even Jones himself thinks that he can win.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Ok now that's what I'm talking about. I feel a lot better about this than Emerson's 44-40 result a few weeks ago. Margin's slightly worse, but less undecideds.
If Jones wants to win this thing, he needs to look at Moore's run for Chief Justice in 2012 as a blue print. He only won 52-48 when Romney was winning with 61%. Start from there and do better.
I heard someone quote a political operative in Alabama saying "better three years of Jones than a lifetime of Moore." I wonder how potent that line of thinking would be for swinging any usually-Republican voters. Since Jones would only be filling a partial term, seems pretty easy to suggest giving him a chance, and if they don't like him they can replace him with a saner Republican in 2020.
Jones shouldn't be the one to make that argument though, obviously. But much like how Brown got a Senate seat for a little under three years selling himself as Mr. 41, Jones being in the Senate would pretty much kill any further attempts at repealing ACA, even if they could win over McCain (or more likely, count on an appointed replacement to rubber stamp McConnell's agenda). I imagine even in Alabama the "sit down and talk about ways to fix ACA" approach is an easier sell than "burn this motherfucker down".
Agree with dropping off money to Jones' campaign and being done with it. Still think Obama should sneak in a robocall the night before.
BoboBrazil
Member
If a major Russia story drops today also expect Tom Price to be fired to distract from the Russia story.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Republicans would be fools to invest in a special election for Massachusetts Senate. Their best case scenario is to hold Coakley to a single digit win.
rokkerkory
Member
yes pls ready to go here!
Meh, when's the last time a Dem won a state wide race in Alabama? Massachusetts at least had a Republican governor not too long ago.
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
wittes plus the atlantic said something big is coming weeeeeeeeeee
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
I feel like I'm having dejavu I keep reading this post
Brawndo Addict
Banned
The rapid development and integration of technology/culture has really thrown the whole standard 20-year generation thing into a blender. Personally, I think the more important dividing lines are the internet (mid 90s) followed by smartphones (late 2000s).
I'd say it goes something like 'millennials' > 'post-internet generation' > 'post-smartphone generation'. So a millennial becomes a sort of gatekeeper between the old world and the new world; culturally equidistant from a smartphone kid and a baby boomer, they have a foot in both times but a home in neither.
I'd say it goes something like 'millennials' > 'post-internet generation' > 'post-smartphone generation'. So a millennial becomes a sort of gatekeeper between the old world and the new world; culturally equidistant from a smartphone kid and a baby boomer, they have a foot in both times but a home in neither.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Not sure about any statewide offices period, but Don Siegelman won the governorship in 1998, and Howell Heflin won his last senate race in 1990.
And how exactly do you get reporters not to write that story? It's a Senate race that Dems have an outside shot at winning; they're going to write that story no matter what.
I'm confused at the posts on this page saying "we need to just not nationalize this race", as if that is at all in anyone's control at the DNC, DSCC, etc. Even if national Dems don't give Jones a cent or call in national surrogates (whoops too late), it's not like Moore and the GOP aren't going to tie Jones to the Democratic Party as a whole. They do this in literally every race - every Democrat running for the House is a Pelosi stooge, every Democrat running for the Senate is a Reid or Schumer puppet.
When there's only one race to focus on, the national attention is going to come no matter what Dems do.
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