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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
DKE saying Kevin De Leon still going ahead with a California Senate run.

Frankly, regardless of whether he beats DiFi or not, the best thing that could happen in Cali (in terms of pure electoral advantage to the Democrats) would be for the GOP to be locked out of both the gubernatorial and Senate races. Give Republican voters nothing to turn out for at the top of the ticket and we might be able to sweep out some shitty Congressmen.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Plinko said:
Just feel like saying I would welcome more Golden Girls gifs in this thread.
Click to expand...
fanning-self-gif-9.gif


.gif? Moar like .gilf amirite
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Got the Shakes said:
Trump has gone from 55-39 to 47-47 in rural areas.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-slipping-in-rural-america-poll-idUSKBN1CE162
Click to expand...

Some of the comments might be the overall similar reasons that Evangelicals support Trump.

I can see in the future more and more Republicans are going to get voted on for basically identity political reasons similar to Moore. That is both a curse and a potential blessing. The voters are going more like support someone that isn't good at their job, because their primary objective is voting some that can protect from the liberals, the others, and their identity. Actually on of the major reason the GOP can anything done.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
I'm voting for Kevin de Leon
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Go for it. I’d vote for him if I lived there.

Markos tweeted his support for De Leon, although I’d be surprised to see the site get involved - they typically stay out of contentious primaries since the DKE crowd took over the elections portion of the site.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Aaron Strife said:
New Virginia polls

CNU/Wason Center: http://m.nbc12.com/story/36550832/ahead-of-final-debate-northam-leads-gillespie-by-7-points-in-poll

Northam 49
Gillespie 42

(Also Justin Fairfax leads 48-40 for Lt. Gov and Mark Herring leads 51-40 for AG)

Emerson (eww): https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/...-ralph-northam-leads-republican-ed-gillespie/

Northam 49
Gillespie 44

Neither are phenomenal pollsters, but add them to the pile.

Still hoping Northam wins by at least 7 points. That would be a bigger margin than either of Obama's elections, Kaine's 2012 Senate election, McAuliffe's 2013 gubernatorial election, Warner's 2014 election or Clinton's 2016 election. To find a bigger Dem win you'd have to go back to Warner's 2008 election to the Senate which was a landslide - or Northam's own win in 2013 for Lt. Governor over McCrazypants.

Also that's probably the magic number to swing the VA House or at least come close.
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Northam did get a 55/45 election in his Lt. Gov election. But that didn't have a libertarian spoiler candidate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2013

(Given Fairfax's larger polling lead, I want to go look up and see if the Lt Gov tends to swing the same way as the general, just w/ a bigger margin.)
 
O

Owzers

Member
Wolf let the chair of the RNC walk all over him whe he tried to call her out on hypocrisy regarding trump’s sexual assault brags and the women who came forward, absolutely pathetic.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
Seems like the recent polling all shows Northam with a solid though not spectacular lead and hovering around 50. All in all, good news.
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Which would be just fine with me. It’d be great if Northam won in a landslide blue wave, but at this rate I just need a win of any kind. Special election victories in legislative races are nice but ultimately not terribly impactful on their own.

Just gimme Gov. Northam and a dozen seats.
 
H

Hubbl3

Unconfirmed Member
Owzers said:
Wolf let the chair of the RNC walk all over him whe he tried to call her out on hypocrisy regarding trump’s sexual assault brags and the women who came forward, absolutely pathetic.
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Yeah, I'm sitting in a place that's playing CNN now and I just watched that. It's what I fucking hate about CNN. They let right-wingers come on and spout whatever garbage they want and they don't push back on anything.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
New Virginia polls

CNU/Wason Center: http://m.nbc12.com/story/36550832/ahead-of-final-debate-northam-leads-gillespie-by-7-points-in-poll

Northam 49
Gillespie 42

(Also Justin Fairfax leads 48-40 for Lt. Gov and Mark Herring leads 51-40 for AG)

Emerson (eww): https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/...-ralph-northam-leads-republican-ed-gillespie/

Northam 49
Gillespie 44

Neither are phenomenal pollsters, but add them to the pile.

Still hoping Northam wins by at least 7 points. That would be a bigger margin than either of Obama's elections, Kaine's 2012 Senate election, McAuliffe's 2013 gubernatorial election, Warner's 2014 election or Clinton's 2016 election. To find a bigger Dem win you'd have to go back to Warner's 2008 election to the Senate which was a landslide - or Northam's own win in 2013 for Lt. Governor over McCrazypants.

Also that's probably the magic number to swing the VA House or at least come close.
Click to expand...

So it seems that both Northam and Gillespie's numbers have gone up as the race has gotten nearer, but probably more that their lean-voters are coming off the sidelines. Fewer undecideds make me happy, though I would be surprised if Hyra gets over 1%.

Him being close to 50% is good.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Ooof.

http://ht.ly/u55r30fKbBk

In that tracking poll, Democrats went up in their Delegate generic ballot from 47 to 49, and Republicans went down from 40 to 38.

The demographics might be too Democratic friendly. 2016 exit polls in Virginia only had a 51% college and graduate degrees, and this has 65% either college degree or graduate study.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Ooof.

http://ht.ly/u55r30fKbBk

In that tracking poll, Democrats went up in their Delegate generic ballot from 47 to 49, and Republicans went down from 40 to 38.

The demographics might be too Democratic friendly. 2016 exit polls in Virginia only had a 51% college and graduate degrees, and this has 65% either college degree or graduate study.
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I mean don’t you think it’s more likely that someone who’s college-educated would turn out for an off-year gubernatorial election than someone who’s not? Not even pointing that out as a “republicans are dumb” factor but think of Trump’s base of support compared to Gillespie’s.

Exit poll from the 2013 gubernatorial election had college grads/post-grads at 61% of the electorate:

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html

Not to discount what you say but there would be precedence for a more educated populace this time around, and with four years of demographic shifts (older folks who got by with an HS degree dying out, northern transplants coming in) I could see the electorate being even higher educated than last election.

If that poll is even close to being accurate I’d say the HOD is very much in play.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
whyamihere said:
Ooof.

http://ht.ly/u55r30fKbBk

In that tracking poll, Democrats went up in their Delegate generic ballot from 47 to 49, and Republicans went down from 40 to 38.

The demographics might be too Democratic friendly. 2016 exit polls in Virginia only had a 51% college and graduate degrees, and this has 65% either college degree or graduate study.
Click to expand...

FWIW, college-educated whites seem to be the demographic group most energized to vote in these special elections so far. Not clear how that will play out next year but if things continue as is I don't think its unreasonable that college-educated turnout will exceed 2016 as a proportion of the entire electorate.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
I mean don’t you think it’s more likely that someone who’s college-educated would turn out for an off-year gubernatorial election than someone who’s not? Not even pointing that out as a “republicans are dumb” factor but think of Trump’s base of support compared to Gillespie’s.

Exit poll from the 2013 gubernatorial election had college grads/post-grads at 61% of the electorate:

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html

Not to discount what you say but there would be precedence for a more educated populace this time around, and with four years of demographic shifts (older folks who got by with an HS degree dying out, northern transplants coming in) I could see the electorate being even higher educated than last election.

If that poll is even close to being accurate I’d say the HOD is very much in play.
Click to expand...

Oh, interesting. That's good to know, and makes sense.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Gillespie going full Trump is probably the biggest mistake he could have made, although if he’s having trouble ginning up R enthusiasm he probably didn’t have much of a choice.

I would have said the biggest thing going for him versus Clinton’s relatively easy win is VA was one of the few swing states where Trump was actively repulsive for swing voters. In that sense, Gillespie makes for a much better statewide candidate in Virginia. Moving so close to Trump takes away that advantage and the R base (probably) still doesn’t feel like voting.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Finally have a real PA-8 Dem.

http://www.theintell.com/news/local...cle_220e80c9-c340-5831-b198-6aa400813364.html

A sense of patriotism and duty inspired a Chalfont-born naval officer to join the armed services after graduating law school. That same feeling brought Rachel Reddick back to her home state to make a run for the 8th Congressional District seat in the 2018 elections.

Reddick announced this weekend her candidacy for the Democratic nomination in the 2018 primary, looking to be the one who can flip the 8th district after what would be eight years of Republican control.

"I've always been interested in serving my community," Reddick said. "Toward the end of the summer, my husband and I moved back home. I was looking for the best way to become involved, and this avenue stuck out. A Democrat needed to step up in this district, and I was willing to do it."

Reddick talked about her upbringing and jumping into the political world over a pot of coffee at the Eagle Diner in Warminster, the same diner where she waitressed during her college years at Temple University. Born and raised in the borough by her parents, Jonathan and Donna Weidemann, Reddick graduated from Christopher Dock High School in Towamencin in the early 2000s and later earned a bachelor's degree in political science at Temple in 2006.

She started her career in earnest as a legal aide for A Woman's Place, a Doylestown-based organization that advocates for women suffering from domestic abuse. After witnessing the power of the law to help people, Reddick went to law school at Rutgers University's Camden campus. She interned with the Philadelphia District Attorney's Office family violence and sexual assault unit, but then took a different path after earning her law degree.
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C

chadskin

Member
The president of the United States is still furious at his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson for reportedly calling him a “moron” or, upon further reporting, a “fucking moron.” And he won’t stop venting to friends and senior aides about the news outlet that broke the story.

In yet another sign of how deeply NBC News has managed to get under his skin, Donald Trump has, in recent days, taken to saying that the network is “run by morons,” two sources who have spoken to the president told The Daily Beast.

Trump regularly complains during the day and evenings about NBC as “fake” and out to “get” him in the “same way he [recently] did with CNN,” according to one White House official.
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Sources spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss private conversations about alleged morons.
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https://www.thedailybeast.com/stung...donald-trump-now-insists-nbc-is-run-by-morons

Not very creative!
 
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