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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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Which wars? North Korea is not escalating because it's comfortable, it's escalating because it's uncomfortable. I think that's ok. The US generally needs to send a clear signal to North Korea that it is prepared to defend South Korea and North Korea generally needs to send a clear signal to the US that it is prepared to attack South Korea if the US tries to invade or strike Pyongyang. This is not an unreasonable assumption.

Personally I think we should hold a no prior conditions negotiation to try to get them to cease their ICBM program but continue to have nuclear weapons at their disposal. In return, we lift some sanctions. However I suspect that the Hawks in Washington like that the North continues its ICBM program because it increases the likelihood of foreign intervention and regime change, which is the ultimate goal of the US.

The other opinion I have is that we should offer to lift every sanction we have on North Korea in exchange for complete nuclear disarmament and arrange to have their defense taken care of by a Chinese military force. Notably, that means do not impose conditions related to their human rights abuses. The increase in economic prosperity is a fair trade for undermining the regime. But I suspect that the Kind already know that their people doing too well leads to instability, so maybe they wouldn't take that.

I haven't seen any evidence of irrational behavior yet.

Why would North Korea want sanctions to be lifted? NK's dictatorship draws it's power from the fact that the country is in a constant state of crisis. Their entire national identity is based on the concept that the entire world is against them. They aren't going to give up their nuclear program in exchange for something that endangers their grip on the country.

They don't want to increase NK's interactions with the outside world, they aren't stupid, they know very well that will eventually undermine their power.

So they need to keep ratcheting up the tension. For them Trump drawing these lines in the sand is the best case scenario. It gives them something to push against. The problem is, that runway doesn't last forever. Eventually tensions will reach a point where the whole thing is untenable.

I also think that, (and I know this sounds loony) the nuclear weapon doesn't really matter much. North Korea can already do unconscionable damage to Seoul. This doesn't change that. An ICBM or 2 is easier to defend against than thousands of guns pounding Seoul from hardened positions. It's always been about those guns pointed at Seoul, removing their nuclear program doesn't change that.

I do agree that the thing to do now is basically nothing, but that's mostly because I don't trust this administration to handle anything. Trump has already pushed this thing further through his incompetence and impotence. He just needs to shut the fuck up and go back to picking fights with reporters about crowd size and lying about his tiny baby hands.
 
CNN has slowly been putting better anchors in prime-time slots. There's still a ton of bullshit, but they're slowly improving.

The anchors were never a problem for me, moreso the format in which every issue is presented as a debate with two equally-valid sides.
 
DI0R-WQUIAEG23X.jpg:large


I survived Hurricane Harvey and all I got was this lousy T-shirt.
 
http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/09/former_congressman_finds_cuyah.html#incart_river_mobile_home_pop

"I went to the back entrance and I entered and then the alarm went off and I said, 'That's odd,'" Kucinich said.

He took the elevators up to the second floor and then to the third floor to tell someone that the alarm was going off, he said.

"There was no one in the building," Kucinich said. "The rear door of the Board of Elections was unlocked."

When he realized the building was empty, he called police who walked through the building. The Cuyahoga County Sheriff's Office took over from there, he said.

"At a time when people are very concerned about the integrity of elections, it's alarming that the door to the Board of Elections was open, that the building was not guarded," Kucinich said.

Another person showed up to vote before police arrived, but Kucinich advised the voter to not go in the building.
 
@JenniferJJacobs said:
MATTIS at White House: "Any threat to the United States or its territories...or our allies, will be met with a massive military response."

Once again threatening preemptive action if NK makes additional threats. But since Mattis is probably the most reasonable of Trump’s advisors...maybe it’s time to be a little worried.
 
The anchors were never a problem for me, moreso the format in which every issue is presented as a debate with two equally-valid sides.

They might as well make it like Around the Horn on ESPN where the anchor can give each side points or punish them by muting their mic for a few seconds. I can't decide whether I'd laugh or cry at that.
 
Oh, Mattis. Don't lie to our faces and claim we have many military options in North Korea. Although I'm sure that's technically correct, I'm pretty sure people are more interested in plans that aren't catastrophic for millions.
 

JP_

Banned
Does he mean threat as in another verbal/written threat or an actual physical threat? Sloppy use of words either way.
 
Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson 26m26 minutes ago
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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Why are we discussing the Twitter equivalent of clickbait? I could tweet "holy shit, next week gonna be cray" like every week and it'd be true because the Trump administration is insane. Doesn't mean my tweets would be insightful or worth mentioning.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Why are we discussing the Twitter equivalent of clickbait? I could tweet "holy shit, next week gonna be cray" like every week and it'd be true because the Trump administration is insane. Doesn't mean my tweets would be insightful or worth mentioning.
At least it's better than the people in the NK threads unironically discussing "the powers that be" who put Trump into power to make him the NK fall guy.

I agree with you though.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Why are we discussing the Twitter equivalent of clickbait? I could tweet "holy shit, next week gonna be cray" like every week and it'd be true because the Trump administration is insane. Doesn't mean my tweets would be insightful or worth mentioning.

Well... you are not wrong.
 

Random Human

They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
I choose to believe in Rick Wilson.

I am also currently believing another Half-Life game is in development, though.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I choose to believe in Rick Wilson.

I am also currently believing another Half-Life game is in development, though.

They still have employees that develop games right?

I wonder what they have them do all day...
 
Why are we discussing the Twitter equivalent of clickbait? I could tweet "holy shit, next week gonna be cray" like every week and it'd be true because the Trump administration is insane. Doesn't mean my tweets would be insightful or worth mentioning.

Seems fairly obvious he's referring to new revelations regarding Russia, not the administration shooting its own foot
 

Mikef2000

Member
Considering the tweet, maybe Rick is talking about Trump being told the wall is never going to happen?


I'm thinking that Rick is saying this because Congress gets back from vacation next week. And a guaranteed shit show is going to flare when Congress starts to push ahead either of the dumpster fires Trump has started during their "vacation".

A lot of congressmen have avoided having to rebuke Trump's Charlottesville response.
 
Congress and the Senate is gonna have to come head to head with reporters over Trump on Tuesday. They won't be able to avoid reporters anymore. I still think there is something brewing there. Maybe get the ball rolling on impeachment to get ahead of the Mueller investigation.
 

Vimes

Member
I'm thinking that Rick is saying this because Congress gets back from vacation next week. And a guaranteed shit show is going to flare when Congress starts to push ahead either of the dumpster fires Trump has started during their "vacation".

A lot of congressmen have avoided having to rebuke Trump's Charlottesville response.

Yeah, it's crazy to think how much shit has gone down since Congress broke at the end of July.
 
Jesus Christ. Ok, I'm officially starting the Trump Impeachment Prediction Competition. Quote this post and post whether you think Trump will be impeached or not, with an optional over/under. Deadline is next week.

Spoiled Milk said:


my 10% prediction

Each week stories and actions by senate against trump will ramp up

leading to formal announcements of charges by muellers team in october
Depends on D House takeover. If so then yes. Convicted? no

If R still control House then no.

Yes. Over/under 10/31.


Yes impeach, O/U 10/1

Also I think there is a good chance of a medical retirement

No chance. He'll likely resign after a year. Claiming he accomplished everything he wanted and left early because he was so successful 4 years would be pointless, or blame everyone in Washington and say it's irreparable.
missed this



March 2019

Yes, 9/7/2019.

Not gonna be impeached me thinks.

Not gonna be impeached. Also not gonna be re-elected.
Not gonna be impeached me thinks.

I'm going to err on the side of he's never impeached, because I'm not even sure the Democrats will win the House. I don't think the GOP would ever do that to their incumbent president.

Yes. When McConnell and co do the math and see out of control trump is a net liability. Sadly they aren't worried about the party turning nakedly racist and literally nazi, but do care about losing seats and control.

Yes. A unanimous democratic vote and a few sacrificial GOP martyrs and retirees will vote for impeachment.

My votes on yes. He's a way bigger liability to the party then an asset. Who cares about his hardcore base when hes turning away the independents and even some long time republicans. My bet is once Mueller's got everything ready for his case they're going to try and dump him as quickly as possible.
Yes. He is successfully pissing off all Republicans and destroying their reputation. Guessing by the end of the year/early next year after the debt ceiling, budget, and tax reform all blow up in Trump's/GOP's face. Trump just threw an egg in the GOP's face with the 3 month debt ceiling extension. I could see McConnell and Ryan trying to wait till post-2018, so they don't nuke the Republican party right before midterms. Granted it is a lose-lose for them as Trump is going to tank them in the midterms regardless.
Not impeached by republicans. If Democrats take over congress then they will impeach.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Jesus Christ. Ok, I'm officially starting the Trump Impeachment Prediction Competition. Quote this post and post whether you think Trump will be impeached or not, with an optional over/under. Deadline is next week.

No.
 
Jesus Christ. Ok, I'm officially starting the Trump Impeachment Prediction Competition. Quote this post and post whether you think Trump will be impeached or not, with an optional over/under. Deadline is next week.

my 10% prediction

Each week stories and actions by senate against trump will ramp up

leading to formal announcements of charges by muellers team in october
 
Ending daca might push Republicans to impeach. That's alot of lost income taxes being paid to red States and will create a shit show. It's also legit scary that now ice will have info on 800,000 newly illegal people they can go raid and deport. Terrifying stuff.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Jesus Christ. Ok, I'm officially starting the Trump Impeachment Prediction Competition. Quote this post and post whether you think Trump will be impeached or not, with an optional over/under. Deadline is next week.

Depends on D House takeover. If so then yes. Convicted? no

If R still control House then no.
 
Why would North Korea want sanctions to be lifted? NK's dictatorship draws it's power from the fact that the country is in a constant state of crisis. Their entire national identity is based on the concept that the entire world is against them. They aren't going to give up their nuclear program in exchange for something that endangers their grip on the country.
Why did Kim Jung Il do just that, then? The agreement they received in the 90s was seen as a success for the nation. The Kims are there to take care of the country; of course securing prosperity will be popular.

They don't want to increase NK's interactions with the outside world, they aren't stupid, they know very well that will eventually undermine their power.
See Vietnam and China as examples of one-party states which have maintained power over the years but have still integrated with the global community. If you want a more dynastic country, I would point to Cuba, which has extremely strong trade ties with the rest of Latin America.


So they need to keep ratcheting up the tension. For them Trump drawing these lines in the sand is the best case scenario. It gives them something to push against. The problem is, that runway doesn't last forever. Eventually tensions will reach a point where the whole thing is untenable.

I also think that, (and I know this sounds loony) the nuclear weapon doesn't really matter much. North Korea can already do unconscionable damage to Seoul. This doesn't change that. An ICBM or 2 is easier to defend against than thousands of guns pounding Seoul from hardened positions. It's always been about those guns pointed at Seoul, removing their nuclear program doesn't change that.
Nuclear weapons are a complete different playing field. ICBMs allow one country to threaten any other country in the hemisphere, which gives them substantially more leverage. Also, smaller nuclear weapons are the perfect terrorist weapons because they can be easily hidden (unlike artillery), causing maximum damage and terror. North Korea is a state sponsor of terror and has tried to assassinate South Korean leaders many times. They also kidnap people. So yes, the nukes matter. In fact if the North Koreans had nukes but no ICBMs, Americans wouldn't care about them at all, just like Americans don't care about Pakistan.

I do agree that the thing to do now is basically nothing, but that's mostly because I don't trust this administration to handle anything. Trump has already pushed this thing further through his incompetence and impotence. He just needs to shut the fuck up and go back to picking fights with reporters about crowd size and lying about his tiny baby hands.
I disagree with this, too. If Trump said nothing while a foreign country threatens one of our territories and launches a missile over our ally, I'd be really upset. All of Trump's actions so far have probably been correct as per the standard playbook. I think if Obama were still in office he'd do the same thing. But I still like Pelosi's plan the best, which is offer to negotiate with no prior conditions whatsoever.
 
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