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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Allard

Member
Interesting article - its one of the things I find so interesting about this election and elections in general. I think social psychology plays itself out in fairly predictable ways during elections.

Plus, at its core what makes somebody choose republican or democrat? In many ways it a binary choice, but in others its a very complicated matrix of choices. Most people probably don't agree with 100% of either party on the issues - is it simply which one you agree with more issues? which one agrees with issues that are more important to you? which ones agrees with more issues that you believe are important in america? the world? Who do you personally like more and trust? Does peer pressure/social acceptability play a role? Where you grew up? went to school?

I think peer pressure is definitely a part of it, at least in low information voter pools. People want to vote for a winner, people want to be part of something that they can participate with friends on, family is another big issue I know I am liberal based almost exclusively (to start with) due to family reasons, but even though I don't see eye to eye with every issue as a grown up, I still have that liberal affiliation and lots of my friends and family are liberal oriented and almost never see my conservative parts of the family unless its on holidays or birthdays or monumental family events (Babies, weddings etc.). This isn't even from lack of trying, at some point in my life I just stopped seeing them very often without even thinking about but now I wonder if politics might have had something to do with it, just somehow drifted apart.
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
If any of you guys are on Intrade, please don't try to rationalize why Obama will win on the forums there. I'm trying my best to encourage Romney supporters to buy Romney (or sell Obama) to support their dude, but everytime I do, some guy has to ruin it by posting 538 and telling them it's impossible for Romney to win without Ohio (which he's going to lose).
 

gcubed

Member
Wow this is crazy, Rasmussen is showing Romney and Obama tied in Wisconsin. Like I said earlier that is Mitt Romney's only other real option if Ohio fails and he is putting money into the state. Don't know what is going on at some of these polling firms, either they are prophets or just horrible at their jobs.

i'm indifferent on the results. I'm just baffled by either their conclusion or the poor wording that 95% of voters are going to vote.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
i'm indifferent on the results. I'm just baffled by either their conclusion or the poor wording that 95% of voters are going to vote.

95% is literally around the figure that you find in countries with compulsory voting.
 

Bowdz

Member
Wow this is crazy, Rasmussen is showing Romney and Obama tied in Wisconsin. Like I said earlier that is Mitt Romney's only other real option if Ohio fails and he is putting money into the state. Don't know what is going on at some of these polling firms, either they are prophets or just horrible at their jobs.

At this point, I honestly don't know what to think about the national polls. It seems like nobody is really sure about what the final demographics will be for voter turn out. At this point, my only source of hope lies in 538 and PEC. I can't help but be nervous until the election happens.
 

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
Even if Obama wins, this election has been a disappointment. I had big hopes that this would be an election about class inequality but, inspite of Romney helping Obama make that case, it hasn't panned out. It's also been very disappointing for foreign policy.

Well, the 47% comments really damaged Romney and showed him to be out of touch with the working class and generated some discussion on wealth inequality. But then the first debate happened.
 

pigeon

Banned
watching Romney's big economic speech is making me ill. Romney 2012 is going to be heartbreaking. He's got a good campaign right now, the lies sound so good. I'm for big change, real change, Obama is for small things, chasing shiny objects.

You need to apply for a trolling license before you keep making posts like this..
 

RiccochetJ

Gold Member
You are one of those godawful "undecided" voters -- aka a republican too afraid to call himself republican?

Naw, I broadcasted myself in the previous OT and I'm fairly active in other political type threads around here. People know where I stand on things.

Or maybe not. I have no clue if if people remember me.
 

watershed

Banned
What is with this media narrative that Obama has lost his lead with women voters? I don't have any polls to back up what I'm about to say but I literally do not believe this is possible. No way will women break for Romney or be even close to even for both candidates.
 
If its on Fox its always misleading.

Seriously. Fox News is such a joke at this point that it is largely ignored by everyone but the 'true believers'. They ran Glenn Beck crazy for so long that they are the boy who cried wolf. Want some election analysis? . . . here's Dick Morris!
 

AniHawk

Member

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
People like to say claim both parties are identical as a way of justifying not having a deeper understanding of any the issues or nuances of US Politics.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Seriously. Fox News is such a joke at this point that it is largely ignored by everyone but the 'true believers'. They ran Glenn Beck crazy for so long that they are the boy who cried wolf. Want some election analysis? . . . here's Dick Morris!

Here for some Democratic analysis is a shamed Democratic campaign strategist
 

Owzers

Member
You need to apply for a trolling license before you keep making posts like this..

That last sentence was a quote from Romney not a troll...well, HIS troll. He IS running a good campaign though down the stretch. He's the change candidate now. It's crazy.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
i'm going with the assumption that it is a poorly written/worded sentence

Well at the very least, it sure ain't a typo given they wrote out "ninety-six"

So I guess Gallup doesn't matter today, whereas twitter and GAF were full of dems championing the poll yesterday

It matters, but again, the problem is that its difficult to interpret a swing of a point or two in either direction when there isn't anything to precipitate a swing.
 

Tim-E

Member
Yep. They started off in a good place but then they just came across as spoiled hipsters who were pissed off at authority, unorganized, no platform, no leader to truly represent them when there was negative press, and didn't seem to live in reality. My best friend was a huge Bam's supporter in 2008 (when I was conservative and voted McCain). He is totally unhappy with Obama and has gone full OWS. IMO there is room for both capitalism/free enterprise AND regulation in this country. It doesn't have to be one or the other and to me, it seems that OWS wants to get rid of capitalism altogether.

Now, they still do some good but they have just lost all of that positive momentum and publicity with their behavior. It's one thing to try and bring focus to class inequality but its a whole different thing to actually do so by stopping people from going to work, hating on the rich without distinguishing those who pay their fair share and those who don't. I am just tired in general of the movement.

Nail, meet head. By the end of the movement the only people who seemed to be involved still were the braindead "omgzzzz both sidez are evillll" crowd.
 

Cloudy

Banned
What is with this media narrative that Obama has lost his lead with women voters? I don't have any polls to back up what I'm about to say but I literally do not believe this is possible. No way will women break for Romney or be even close to even for both candidates.

It's stupid. Dems have led with women for decades and will do so again with a nice margin
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
So I guess Gallup doesn't matter today, whereas twitter and GAF were full of dems championing the poll yesterday

Statistical 'noise' dawg.

On that note, PD and other posters like him do have a point. We shouldn't praise one poll while disregarding another. Both, one, or neither could be affected by noise.
 
Statistical 'noise' dawg.

On that note, PD and other posters like him do have a point. We shouldn't praise one poll while disregarding another. Both, one, or neither could be affected by noise.
TBH, I have stopped carring about the national polls (good or bad). It's all about state polling now.


National polls don't matter any day. The amount of attention they get makes absolutely no sense to me.

And this is why you are my hero Papa Joe.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
National trackers still hopping around in opposing directions.* So much noise.

*unless you ask Joe Scarborough, who thinks Romney is "pulling away nationally."

Again, this kind of thing just shows the biggest difference is how they determine "likely voters." Turnout is what's going to determine how the vote goes. Actual support for either candidate seems on the whole relatively even.
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
My point applies to state polls as well. Actually, even more so since they're more likely to be affected by noise since they have a smaller sample size.
 

Diablos

Member
So I guess Gallup doesn't matter today, whereas twitter and GAF were full of dems championing the poll yesterday
Funny how that works.

Approval, since its just a 3 day average, is extremely volatile.
We only have two weeks until the election.

WTF...Minnesota. Really?
Yeah this is cause for concern. Making me start to think states like WI are closer than we expect right now. Fuck.
 

Diablos

Member
Romney decided to start running ads in Minnesota starting this weekend (as a feint, I believe).

Obama campaign is probably just going to match whatever they're running just to be on the safe side.
Obama camp wouldn't waste money they don't need to spend. They must have some concerns up there with WI/overlapping markets.
 
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