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[Peter Ian Staker]

It will become interesting post Brexit, one of the driving forces of motivation for the right will be gone, and the left might become liberated without EU limitations on state economic/industrial interference.

I hope something like that happens but that would take a long time to pan out.

What is your reasoning for thinking this is the case? The Voteshare for Labour and the Tories was, at the last election, basically "normal" insomuch as it corresponded to about the same total percentage of the vote as it usually does.

Its the law of diminishing returns at work. Labour can't move any further to the right from where they were before the election without alienating their left wing.
Even if they did it its debatable it would get a lot of people to defect from the Tories.
Lots of politician now rubbing their hands now thinking they can form a party to pander to the pro-EU 48% and win an election thanks to them but its going to take more than an pro-EU stance to unite these people. I doubt a lot of young Remainers would vote for pro-EU Tory-lite.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Because the Tory party keep killing poor and disabled people and people still keep voting for them.

So you either have a Labour party that kills the poor and disabled at a rate similar or above the Tories to win some of their voters, or you move to the left where killing poor and disabled people is not part of policy ... and then more poor people who don't usually vote (they're not turkeys who vote for Christmas) vote for you.

This isn't really true, though. Most analysis of non-voters concludes that they're more or less the same as voters, politically. They're slightly more leftwing... but that has very little to do with poor or vulnerable people, it's because more young people don't vote and they tend to be slightly more leftwing. It's not an especially fertile ground for appeal.

 

[sasliquid]

I have a good friend (army Doctor) who served with Jarvis and had nothing but praise for him. As much as I disagree with his need to go into Syria, I respect him because he at least understands his decision better than the other Labour politicians.

I've said it before I'm a hard leftie

Spoiler

no hate pls

and I'd consider voting for Jarvis over Corbyn cos I think he'd have a really good chance of destroying the Tories on pure likability

 

[CyclopsRock]

Because the Tory party keep killing poor and disabled people and people still keep voting for them.

So you either have a Labour party that kills the poor and disabled at a rate similar or above the Tories to win some of their voters, or you move to the left where killing poor and disabled people is not part of policy ... and then more poor people who don't usually vote (they're not turkeys who vote for Christmas) vote for you.

I can't see through the facetiousness to find the actual point being made here.

 

[zorlaczerohero]

I've said it before I'm a hard leftie

Spoiler

no hate pls

and I'd consider voting for Jarvis over Corbyn cos I think he'd have a really good chance of destroying the Tories on pure likability

No hate from me, I'm way off center! My mate the Army Doctor is backing Corbyn all the way, but sent me a few video's about Jarvis, he doesn't seem like a warmonger, he did vote against action in Syria previously. And I think you're right, people would vote for him, military record and likability.

 

[pigeon]

This isn't really true, though. Most analysis of non-voters concludes that they're more or less the same as voters, politically. They're slightly more leftwing... but that has very little to do with poor or vulnerable people, it's because more young people don't vote and they tend to be slightly more leftwing. It's not an especially fertile ground for appeal.

This is actually fascinating given how different it is from the US. I guess all those poll tax programs really work.

 

[zorlaczerohero]

I can't see through the facetiousness to find the actual point being made here.

Many people don't want Tory or Diet Tory and so aren't bothering to vote, an actual left-wing party may draw some of them out. I think you understood that, you're just being facetious.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

This is actually fascinating given how different it is from the US. I guess all those poll tax programs really work.

It's not that different in the US; non-voters at presidentials are not especially dissimilar to voters at presidentials, although the leftwing (or rather Democrat-voting) bias is slightly more pronounced because of how ass-backwards the US franchise is. Mid-terms are another matter altogether, though.

 

[D4Danger]

looks like this won't be decided for a few more hours.

let's just hope someone else steps up because Angela Eagle isn't winning anything.

 

[JonathanEx]

Interesting - NEC votes 17-15 to have secret votes - https://twitter.com/michaellcrick/status/752883093430734848

Secret votes may slightly increase chance Corbyn is blocked. Because basically if the votes can be tied to you, you'll get abused by Momentum supporters. I think. Corbyn's team already threatened legal action about votes being in secret as it wouldn't be in the interests of open democracy, or something like this.

Still a long way off getting anywhere with how this implodes.


Edit: hahahaha it gets fucking funnier

Labour NEC chair tells Corbyn to leave the room but Corbyn refuses to go

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/752884583125905408

(usual if it's a conflict of interest that you're not in the meeting, but nope, man won't leave EVER)

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Interesting - NEC votes 17-15 to have secret votes - https://twitter.com/michaellcrick/status/752883093430734848

Secret votes may slightly increase chance Corbyn is blocked. Because basically if the votes can be tied to you, you'll get abused by Momentum supporters. I think. Corbyn's team already threatened legal action about votes being in secret as it wouldn't be in the interests of open democracy, or something like this.

Still a long way off getting anywhere with how this implodes.


Edit: hahahaha it gets fucking funnier

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/752884583125905408

(usual if it's a conflict of interest that you're not in the meeting, but nope, man won't leave EVER)

He's left the room now lol

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/752888059411173376

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The Labour Party are stupid as it comes if they think blocking him from the ballot is the way to go. There would be deselections and they would be brutal.

 

[D4Danger]

He's left the room now lol

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/752888059411173376

now lock the door and have a leadership contest in the room

 

[Real Hero]

The Labour Party are stupid as it comes if they think blocking him from the ballot is the way to go. There would be deselections and they would be brutal.

it's so obviously a terrible thing to do.

 

[dumbo]

The Labour Party are stupid as it comes if they think blocking him from the ballot is the way to go. There would be deselections and they would be brutal.

If he stands and loses, do you expect Corbyn/momentum to go quietly?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

NEC is 19-14 pro-Corbyn (at least publicly). If you exclude Corbyn himself and a currently non-attending union member (illness), it's 17-14. Even if we account for one defection by supposing Secret Ballot = anti-Corbyn, he should still win 16-15. It depends how faithful others will be under the cloak of secrecy.

 

[sasliquid]

If he stands and loses, do you expect Corbyn/momentum to go quietly?

As Corbyn supporter and Labour member I would still consider voting Labour if he lost a ballot, if he was forced off it would be a much harder sell

 

[Hazzuh]

If the NEC decision is tied they toss a coin. Would be perfect lol.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

If he stands and loses, do you expect Corbyn/momentum to go quietly?

Corbyn? It'll be bitter but I think swift. Momentum? Will mostly lose momentum if Corbyn actually loses on a ballot of Labour Party members. They get built up to be this big thing in the media but from being at a fair few CLP meetings my judge is that most are just generally lefty people who want something more left out of their party and aren't into the cloak and dagger stuff or Corbyn specifically. If Corbyn loses, it will be because an appealing candidate managed to recapture these people anyway. There'll be a hard core of people who will resist, but it won't be anything like the situation where Corbyn is ruled off the ballot. The soft left of the party wouldn't stand for it. Heck, I wouldn't stand for it and my opinion on Corbyn is pretty clear.

 

[Real Hero]

If the NEC decision is tied they toss a coin. Would be perfect lol.

oh god

 

[Deleted member 231381]

If the NEC decision is tied they toss a coin. Would be perfect lol.

Can't be tied without abstentions, there's 31 attending.

 

[JonathanEx]

I guess the thing is that he's not so much being forced off, just not automatically on the ballot.

So it's unlikely but imagine if he got the nominations and got on that way. All this fuss for nothing. That'd be proper Labour in 2016.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

If the NEC decision is tied they toss a coin. Would be perfect lol.

Seriously? Absolutely farcical.

Nobody wins if he gets off the ballot. Eagle will get criticised to hell, none of the Corbynistas and some beyond will bother voting (except for a direct opponent). Guess the PLP get to keep the Labour branding rather than splitting off at least.

 

[Ushojax]

The Labour Party are stupid as it comes if they think blocking him from the ballot is the way to go. There would be deselections and they would be brutal.

Nobody is blocking him from the ballot. He's perfectly entitled to be on there if he can get the support from MPs just like every other candidate. If he can't get that support then he has no business trying to remain as leader, nobody has ever tried to cling on in the face of such overwhelming disapproval from their own colleagues.

 

[Hazzuh]

It's worth remembering that the NEC aren't ruling on if Corbyn can be on the ballot. If they rule against him all he needs to do is show he has the confidence of a relatively small number of MPs. The only reason any of this is an issue is because Corbyn is behaving in a way which is totally unprecedented in British politics.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Nobody is blocking him from the ballot. He's perfectly entitled to be on there if he can get the support from MPs just like every other candidate. If he can't get that support then he has no business trying to remain as leader, nobody has ever tried to cling on in the face of such overwhelming disapproval from their own colleagues.

The point is that these MPs are only Labour MPs because they had consent from their local parties; you can't stand as a Labour MP without winning the support of your local CLP. At the Labour leadership election, Corbyn won a plurality of CLPs. Since then, the membership has quadrupled in size, largely driven by enthusiasm for the idea of a more leftwing Labour Party. At this point, I imagine close to ~60% of CLPs are controlled by people who want a leftier Labour Party. Right now, Corbyn is their standard bearer. If they feel that the MPs are not allowing them to have their standard bearer, then they will deselect those MPs. That wasn't a genuine prospect until now; but this would be the catalyst. It would destroy the Labour Party, unequivocally. You might even have mass disaffiliations by CLPs, and some sort of "True Labour" / "Independent Labour" whatever. I cannot stress how bad it would be.

 

[Xun]

Nobody is blocking him from the ballot. He's perfectly entitled to be on there if he can get the support from MPs just like every other candidate. If he can't get that support then he has no business trying to remain as leader, nobody has ever tried to cling on in the face of such overwhelming disapproval from their own colleagues.

He's pretty much had overwhelming disapproval from day 0, no?

To me it seems like a bunch of kids having a tantrum at "their" party being taken away from them.

 

[pigeon]

Guardian now reporting the NEC meeting started fifteen minutes late because it's on the second floor and Corbyn refused to leave the elevator.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Guardian now reporting the NEC meeting started fifteen minutes late because it's on the second floor and Corbyn refused to leave the elevator.

I'm hearing from a friend who is an aide Corbyn was stalling to try and see if he could get a replacement for Mary Turner who can't attend due to illness. She's a Corbynite.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

He's pretty much had overwhelming disapproval from day 0, no?

To me it seems like a bunch of kids having a tantrum at "their" party being taken away from them.

Alternatively, their boss hasn't done enough to get them on-site (which would have had to be a lot I admit), and now they're exercising their right to go in a different direction, and Corbyn is the one who can't let go.

Party officials vs. Their own membership. There are only losers, and I think both sides are valid.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

I'm hearing from a friend who is an aide Corbyn was stalling to try and see if he could get a replacement for Mary Turner who can't attend due to illness. She's a Corbynite.

Jesus. Seems Tory machinations are always Machiavellian and Labour's are always farcical

I can hear the benny hill music now

 

[Ushojax]

The point is that these MPs are only Labour MPs because they had consent from their local parties; you can't stand as a Labour MP without winning the support of your local CLP. At the Labour leadership election, Corbyn won a plurality of CLPs. Since then, the membership has quadrupled in size, largely driven by enthusiasm for the idea of a more leftwing Labour Party. At this point, I imagine close to ~60% of CLPs are controlled by people who want a leftier Labour Party. Right now, Corbyn is their standard bearer. If they feel that the MPs are not allowing them to have their standard bearer, then they will deselect those MPs. That wasn't a genuine prospect until now; but this would be the catalyst. It would destroy the Labour Party, unequivocally. You might even have mass disaffiliations by CLPs, and some sort of "True Labour" / "Independent Labour" whatever. I cannot stress how bad it would be.

It's all a spiral of shit that goes nowhere, the party is never going to be unified under him. At the end of the day, if Corbyn took his responsibilities as leader of the opposition seriously, he would have resigned straight after the vote of no confidence. Unfortunately he does not care about offering an alternative government and is showing utter contempt for the most fundamental role of the Labour Party in parliament. What he's doing is simply childish and the behaviour of a student politician.

 

[PJV3]

I wonder what 'tom Watson has stitched it up'means, how has he pulled that off?

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

A spokesman for Jeremy Corbyn has said that reports that he had refused to leave the NEC meeting when asked (see 4.34pm) were “a total fabrication” and that he left straight away.

Why is his spokesman lying about something everyone knows is true lol

 

[Deleted member 231381]

It's all a spiral of shit that goes nowhere, the party is never going to be unified under him. At the end of the day, if Corbyn took his responsibilities as leader of the opposition seriously, he would have resigned straight after the vote of no confidence. Unfortunately he does not care about offering an alternative government and is showing utter contempt for the most fundamental role of the Labour Party in parliament. What he's doing is simply childish and the behaviour of a student politician.

The party isn't going to be unified if he is removed illicitly, either. Again, the only sensible way to resolve this is to put forward a genuinely good candidate to beat him in an open contest - stuff Eagle, get Jarvis or Starmer. Blocking Corbyn from the ballot and fieldingwee tim'rous beasties is not going to resolve this situation.

And in some fairness to Corbyn, he takes his responsibility as leader of the opposition very seriously, which is why he is fighting so very determinedly to ensure it can be the sort of opposition he wants.

 

[Cammington]

I wonder what 'tom Watson has stitched it up'means, how has he pulled that off?

https://medium.com/@tom_d_/is-the-fix-in-9979898b18a3#.uzy0su5at

Quite the interesting read that. Looks like Tom Watson has played a blinder.

 

[Peter Ian Staker]

Jesus. Seems Tory machinations are always Machiavellian and Labour's are always farcical

Well in fairness the stakes aren't the same.
Tory machinations were about who gets to be prime minister.
Labour machinations are about who gets to be their leader when they inevitably lose the next GE.

 

[Morat]

The party isn't going to be unified if he is removed illicitly, either. Again, the only sensible way to resolve this is to put forward a genuinely good candidate to beat him in an open contest - stuff Eagle, get Jarvis or Starmer. Blocking Corbyn from the ballot and fieldingwee tim'rous beasties is not going to resolve this situation.

And in some fairness to Corbyn, he takes his responsibility as leader of the opposition very seriously, which is why he is fighting so very determinedly to ensure it can be the sort of opposition he wants.

Exactly this. If the PLP want rid of Corbyn, they need to produce a better candidate. Corbyn got in in the first place because there was an appetite among the membership for a leftish leader, and [perhaps more importantly] because the competition was composed of a bunch of spineless nonentities.

 

[Maledict]

Corbyn? It'll be bitter but I think swift. Momentum? Will mostly lose momentum if Corbyn actually loses on a ballot of Labour Party members. They get built up to be this big thing in the media but from being at a fair few CLP meetings my judge is that most are just generally lefty people who want something more left out of their party and aren't into the cloak and dagger stuff or Corbyn specifically. If Corbyn loses, it will be because an appealing candidate managed to recapture these people anyway. There'll be a hard core of people who will resist, but it won't be anything like the situation where Corbyn is ruled off the ballot. The soft left of the party wouldn't stand for it. Heck, I wouldn't stand for it and my opinion on Corbyn is pretty clear.

You clearly aren't at my local labour meetings... ;-) momentum are literally the 80s revisited, and are already deselecting local councillors and agitating against the MPs. Weirdly enough the one damn MP they won't go after is Kate Hoey because she supports Corbyn, even though on many issues she is completely out of step with the party and momentum a base (for hunting, gay rights, Europe). It's a cult of personality more than a genuine movement in my experience, with a definite tend towards entryism.

 

[Quixzlizx]

Y'all somehow making the American center-left look like an unstoppable juggernaut in comparison.

Edit: Sorry, I meant the American center-right :emoji: :emoji: :emoji:

 

[kirblar]

Exactly this. If the PLP want rid of Corbyn, they need to produce a better candidate. Corbyn got in in the first place because there was an appetite among the membership for a leftish leader, and [perhaps more importantly] because the competition was composed of a bunch of spineless nonentities.

From the outside looking in, the entire system appears to be composed of those.

 

[D4Danger]

From the outside looking in, the entire system appears to be composed of those.

you're not wrong. Right now it's just about getting rid of Corbyn (which they've been trying to do since day 1) instead of finding a proper leader. Maybe once this is done and there's a contest someone will come forward that could actually win *cough*Jarvis*cough*

 

[Deleted member 231381]

You clearly aren't at my local labour meetings... ;-) momentum are literally the 80s revisited, and are already deselecting local councillors and agitating against the MPs. Weirdly enough the one damn MP they won't go after is Kate Hoey because she supports Corbyn, even though on many issues she is completely out of step with the party and momentum a base (for hunting, gay rights, Europe). It's a cult of personality more than a genuine movement in my experience, with a definite tend towards entryism.

You're in London, though. It's easy to get together niche political groupings there. Try being in the Welsh valleys or the forests. Here Momentum just means "I didn't like Yvette Cooper and got Andy Burnham confused with a soggy paper bag".

 

[Best]

you're not wrong. Right now it's just about getting rid of Corbyn (which they've been trying to do since day 1) instead of finding a proper leader. Maybe once this is done and there's a contest someone will come forward that could actually win *cough*Jarvis*cough*

Angela Eagle's only there as the patsy. Once the PLP have sacrificed her at the altar of Corbyn I expect Jarvis etc to come to the front as a serious option.

 

[Hazzuh]

Even if it comes down to having to get 51 noms Corbyn might be OK. Could see MPs thinking he should be on the ballot even if they don't like him. He still has the support of 35~ MPs right?

 

[JonathanEx]

Even if it comes down to having to get 51 noms Corbyn might be OK. Could see MPs thinking he should be on the ballot even if they don't like him.

Could go either way actually. 40 were with him on the confidence vote, which has potentially dropped further, but some MPs might not like this whole NEC shenanigans and want the members to decide.

 

[Maledict]

Even if it comes down to having to get 51 noms Corbyn might be OK. Could see MPs thinking he should be on the ballot even if they don't like him.

Won't happen in a million years. He won't even get the 40 MPs who voted for him in the vote of no confidence. There are several who backed him out of loyalty but who won't be mad enough to put him on the ballot again.

 

[Empty]

keeping him off the ballot on paper is entirely sensible, on paper. the rules exist to make sure we have a leader that is both supported by a credible number of the plp and is given consent by the membership as both are needed for the party to function.

labour mp's fucked up last time by ignoring the rules by nominating someone they didn't actually want as leader in the profoundly mistaken belief that all that would happen is that corbyn would be "good for debate" but get a tiny vote share. this is an opportunity to fix that mistake. corybnites bleat about democracy but there isn't some kind of inherent right for anyone to became leader of the labour party, it is its own organisation designed to best meet its aims.

however now pandora's box has been opened you can't put it back. sadly.

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

Even if it comes down to having to get 51 noms Corbyn might be OK. Could see MPs thinking he should be on the ballot even if they don't like him. He still has the support of 35~ MPs right?

He'd never get on the ballot again.

 

[phisheep]

Even if it comes down to having to get 51 noms Corbyn might be OK. Could see MPs thinking he should be on the ballot even if they don't like him. He still has the support of 35~ MPs right?

I don't think that will happen. Enough people got burned with that thinking last time round and regretted it.