1. Half way there.
2. Neutered on console (for anyone who isn't an ultimate subscriber)
3. Soon. They are already going in that direction across EMEA.
4. Soon if the rumours are to be believed.
Let's revisit in 18 months time shall we? Because the evolution since you wrote that post in response to
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
hasn't been kind to you.
Damn right I am. I know you have contacts that are close to Xbox/Microsoft but in everything you said you didnt warn/tell us about the change in tiers along with the price increases. I could be wrong, but I'm getting the impression that you're predominantly being told what you'd want to hear?
The two things that are undefeated so far are that random discord leak/insider and what
S
SneakersSO
has shared with us here. Based on those two things it's looking like everything
O
Ozriel
is in denial about (or dismissing as trolling/fan-Fiction) is coming to pass.
The bottom line is, with the current performance of Xbox
as a console brand, it doesn't take a genius to work out why things are transpiring as they are at the moment.
Theory time:
S
SneakersSO
and Gestridens are the same person
Thing is 90% of what I hear I won’t repeat because I won’t burn my trust i have with these guys and 100% I didn’t know about price increases and even if I did it’s not something I would share here
i won’t warn people of bad news that will come on its own
What I enjoy actually doing is repeating things I hear on hardware especially if I feel it’s big enough to warrant flying near the sun like brining up close to something like 10 months ago that MS wanted to jump ahead with the much more powerful next box a good two years ahead of the PS6
I am the one who first started putting numbers out there for the PS5 Pro
I don’t hear just what I want to hear, I only repeat what I want to repeat
I don’t owe anyhow here any warnings on anything
I will share info as I desire which has become less and less because of some people here taking shit to PMs
So many wonder why actual people who are in the know don’t frequent these very forums or interact here anymore.
FWIW I still think MS are going to launch new hardware in 2026 that will be above a PS5 Pro in performance capabilities. It's just not going to be a console.
It's probably going to be a console-like PC. Just not sure if it'll run on Windows or run on Xbox OS. They still seem to want to push Game Pass hard and they'd still need a box they can guarantee Game Pass is the primary service on; they can't get that with Amazon or Windows, they're too open-ended. But Xbox as a traditional console has no future, so they can't just repeat what they've done with Series.
I'm leaning towards, the next Xbox systems being based on a spec MS & OEMs build around, still running Xbox OS, with extended Windows features to run whitelisted Windows apps on the system (without a Dev Mode), downloaded through the Windows/Microsoft Store. And more importantly, they probably tie access to Steam and other storefronts through Game Pass tier subscriptions on these systems. Depending on form factor, also modular systems (upgradable system RAM, upgradable (approved) low-profile GPUs, adjustable clock & power settings in main UI, etc.). All licensees being able to customize the UI frontend to their liking or add extended functions, but have to maintain basic compatibility.
That's the only way I can see a new Xbox actually working hardware-wise, at least for the next few years. Well, at least one where they still want to keep what console audience they have in Game Pass still fully locked in. I don't know the degree of work MS'd have to do to get all OG Xbox, 360, XBO, Series S and Series X binaries running well on Windows. I guess they could always try buying or licensing an existing emulator but a lot of these emulators are made on open licenses so not sure how that would work. There's also the fact that, at least it feels like, bringing all the Xbox stuff to Windows would be a larger undertaking than bringing required Windows stuff to the Xbox side. There's all levels of stability & performance they'd have to account for with the former, and that wouldn't let them leverage the Xbox brand naming too much (not like it's worth a ton these days anyhow in most parts of the world).
Personally I think they might still roll with systems mainly running Xbox OS and whitelisting Windows apps, tying Game Pass as the big push with alt-storefront access tied to a subscription etc. for a few years then maybe sometime after 2030 they pull the trigger and push everything Xbox to Windows, tie that with another hardware refresh and necessary changes and just go that way from that point onward. That's when they could finally sunset Xbox OS, and probably drop support for by-then ancient systems (Series S, Series X), especially if they aren't going to allow Windows on those systems for reasons.
I'll estimate that by that time at least 80% of the games they publish will also release on other consoles, if not all.
It's looking like they will have "Xbox" branded windows PC's/handhelds (why people need this I don't know) but no longer a pipeline of traditional consoles. Personally I think it would be a terrible idea for them to allow Steam to be installed on those machines, but they will probably do it. They are between a rock and a hard place on this point - if you can't treat it like you would an open PC then who is really purchasing a ~$1000 box that only has access to the windows/xbox store? However if they open it up then it suddenly has potential appeal to the entirety of the current PC gaming market, but they would have to accept they will completely forgo the vast majority of any fee based (store cuts) or recurring revenue (paid online) outside of gamepass subscriptions.
For a while I've been thinking how realistic is it for MS to move everything Xbox over to Windows vs. just (for a few years) bringing more Windows to Xbox? Because in my head the latter seems easier and less herculean a task, and it'd also give them an excuse to monetize access to other storefronts like Steam: you just lock access to a Game Pass subscription.
Whatever they do for the next Xbox devices, it's going to be at least somewhat awkward. Like you said, simply slapping the Xbox brand on otherwise Windows-based PCs and handhelds doesn't make any sense; the brand isn't strong enough for OEMs to bother with increase in supply, and their volumes would otherwise be low enough to where they could just with an in-house brand and sell just as much (possibly a bit more). Just having OEMs pay out for an Xbox label on Windows machines will make that type of push DOA.
So it has to be more substantive than that. Moving everything Xbox over to Windows, and getting it to behave like the current consoles do (including in terms of stability & security) would require kernel-level changes to Windows and, probably, BIOS/UEFI privileges to Windows that OEMs would have to be OK with. That could take a while. Can anyone really picture Windows as-is being fully accessible with a controller? That's the type of integration Microsoft'd need, that could be 5+ years out and they don't have 5 years to wait for new hardware: Series X & S are dying right now.
Just seems like for hardware they'd want 4, 3, even 2 years from now, integrating more Windows features to Xbox would make more sense. They kind of already have that with the Dev Mode stuff; they'd just need to make Dev Mode features a standard thing, more neatly integrated, build some version of Windows/Microsoft Store for Xbox OS and let users install whitelisted apps through that. As for stuff like Steam, no matter what I highly doubt Valve will take any time to build a specific app just for Xbox, I don't know how much they'd let Microsoft compile a version for Xbox OS either. So best option is just to extend Windows features/utilities that Steam needs to Xbox OS, then give Steam the system resources it needs to run like it would on a desktop Windows.
And then the trick: just lock access to Steam to a Game Pass subscription. So even if the (high likelihood) Microsoft lose revenue because people are using Steam instead, at least they're still getting money off Steam access on their hardware. They'd have to strike a balance between that and other things like hardware modularity, to justify a higher upfront cost (not TOO much higher, maybe like $100 - $200 more than the current systems are) and have a good enough pitch to sell what they make, even if the volume of hardware is going to be lower anyway ("lower" compared to typical XBO production...Series S/X might not even do 4.5 million this FY. Depending on # of OEMs and form factors I think future Xbox hardware could do fine with ~ 3.5 - 4 million annually because the business model would be so much different from what Series X & S are struggling with).
Almost two years ago too.
