PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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I couldn't believe Hillary chickened out with the whole New Year's Resolution thing. Now Trump knows she'll fold if he attacks and he can continue running facebook videos for two weeks without fear of reprisal. I mean he didn't even go full belt-buckle on her.
 
pigeon said:
Uh-oh. Political pressure will force Obama to sign it, destroying Democratic chances in 2016 and ushering in a two-term President Trump, who will personally sign the bill demolishing Diablos's house specifically.
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Bill of attainder. Diablos is safe.
 
Veritigo_X said:
"I can't remember" should've tipped me off, but I just assumed it was cut for comedic effect. The other spoofs aren't nearly as believable.
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Jon Stewart had a number of really good ones from the Ford years that are definitely worth checking out. Not really up there on the believable scale, but funny as shit.
 
I smell death.:( oh well.

Anyway, happy about the jobs report. Woo! Hope the economy continues at a decent-good pace up to the GE and beyond of course.
 
HylianTom said:
And DAMN at that jobs report.

I do agree that a recession is in the mail for us. I just hope that it's not express mail. Ten months.
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Yeah seriously. It's bound to happen but let's try and hold it off until a Democrat gets elected. If it's small enough they can weather it in their first year.
 
The business cycle doesn't have an upper limit to its length. The 19th century had business cycles 2-3 years long and longer depressions than the Great Depression
 
Diablos said:
Trump is beyond legit now. He's going to be a formidable candidate in the GE.

Hillary has been making absolutely no hype whatsoever. The lack of enthusiasm on the Democratic side this cycle is just depressing and certainly cause for concern. This is not 2008, or even 2012.
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I do agree with you that there's little hype for Hillary, especially when compared to Obama in 2008, but Trump does not have the current demographic to win the election.
 
Big Green Anus said:
I do agree with you that there's little hype for Hillary, especially when compared to Obama in 2008, but Trump does not have the current demographic to win the election.
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Hillary doesn't want hype right now. From the very start she's been playing a low key campaign, and the rise of Trump has ensured she doubles down on that.

The *last* thing she wants is for there to be anything that pushes trump out of the media cycle right now.
 
Also Clinton has sky-high favorable ratings among the Democratic Party. Assuming she doesn't get blown out among independents that's all she really needs. Doesn't matter if the hype isn't the same as Obama, Obama was a once-in-a-generation candidate.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Also Clinton has sky-high favorable ratings among the Democratic Party. Assuming she doesn't get blown out among independents that's all she really needs. Doesn't matter if the hype isn't the same as Obama, Obama was a once-in-a-generation candidate.
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What are you talking about? Hillary supporters like me have been waiting 8 years for this.

We were robbed last time. Now the rightful heir will finally take her place as leader of the Democratic Party once again. So much for change that we can believe in. So much for passing the touch and turning away from the past. In fact Obama is passing the touch back to the people he wanted to turn the page from.
 
NeoXChaos said:
What are you talking about? Hillary supporters like me have been waiting 8 years for this.

We were robbed last time. Now the rightful heir will finally take her place as leader of the Democratic Party once again. So much for change that we can believe in. So much for passing the touch and turning away from the past. In fact Obama is passing the touch back to the people he wanted to turn the page from.
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well, I suppose there are crazies for every candidate
 
I have to admit, at least 20% of my desire for Sanders to win is now fuelled by the immense potential for schadenfreude this thread would generate.
 
Neo, I goofed on the aspect ratio and your avatar is slightly skinnier than it should be. Here's a corrected version if you want to upgrade

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Foffy said:
Do you think it risks becoming a depression, though? I greatly wonder and fear this, with the way change is happening and our ideas aren't changing with the times and trends.
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Don't count on it. Think early 2000s recession, assuming it happens at all, which it might not. The American economy is pretty stable, ceteris paribus.
 
Crab said:
I have to admit, at least 20% of my desire for Sanders to win is now fuelled by the immense potential for schadenfreude this thread would generate.
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This is getting more and more likely, to wit:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/09/us/politics/bernie-sanders-has-killer-mike-in-his-corner.html

Mr. Render and other hip-hop artists who have voiced support for the senator — including Lil B, Big Boi and Bun B — are potentially important advocates for the Sanders campaign as it attempts to chip away at Hillary Clinton’s lead among black voters. A New York Times/CBS Poll conducted last month found that 82 percent of African-Americans who planned to vote in the Democratic primary supported Mrs. Clinton, while just 8 percent supported Mr. Sanders.
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The B quotient is strong. However Hillary supporters, not to fear, as she has a countermove:

A spokeswoman for the Clinton campaign who spoke on background to avoid a back-and-forth with the Sanders campaign emphasized Mrs. Clinton’s support among African-Americans and named African-American artists who are supporting her campaign, including Snoop Dogg, Usher and Waka Flocka Flame.
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Weaknesses of the theory: Like any theory built around historical election data, it’s limited by its sample size — and in this case, the sample size is not all that large, because the current nomination process is fairly new and because presidential elections take place only once every four years. Furthermore, the theory has a mixed track record of success since first being published in 2008: It was very helpful in predicting Mitt Romney’s victory in the Republican race four years ago, for instance, but less so in anticipating Barack Obama’s upset over Hillary Clinton. What’s more, there are reasons to think that Trump could be an outlier,6 defying the premises of the theory even if the theory is generally sound. Finally, the theory suffers from a bit of an underwear gnomes problem, implying that Trump and other insurgent candidates will be stopped by party elites but not necessarily identifying the mechanism by which that occurs.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/

This is the biggest problem with The Party Decides, it has no underlying foundations for how the party is supposed to decide. The book has some wild guesses about how the party is supposed to influence nominations and then admits it has no empirical evidence that those mechanisms actually are what matters.
 
Jack Remington said:
Cruz has the highest favorables and the lowest unfavorables in the group.

I really need to get out of my No position on Cruz. Dude could really win the nomination. I've been hesitant to take the loss and have been waiting for the No price to come back up, but it keeps going down and down.

Shorting Rubio has been a great money maker though.
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Trump
Plinko 8/19/15
B-Dubs 8/19/15
Poodlestrike 8/19/15
Jack Remington 8/19/15
Makai 8/19/15
SourShoes 8/19/15
Fenderputty 8/31/15
HylianTom 8/31/15
RastaMentality 9/10/15
brainchild 9/13/15
Melkr_ 9/20/15
RustyNails 9/21/15
Avon Barksdale 9/27/15
tanod 9/28/15
eBay Huckster 9/30/15
Coriolanus 10/2/15
zou 10/2/15
NSQuote 10/2/15
Samarecarm 10/2/15
Ecotic 10/2/15
SL128 10/2/15
Brookshi 10/2/15
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looking good with 3 weeks to ago.
 
Makai said:
O'Reilly calls New Hampshire and South Carolina for Trump. Says Iowa is a tossup between Cruz and Trump. Believes Trump has a chance in general if he moderates positions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJhHTlsQJYw
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I said this before that Donald Trump has high polling in the primaries is because the GOP primary voters are overwhelming white and largely "conservative". Trump is finally the guy that is saying that they think they feel and believe is true. It has been something that has been brewing for a long to time. It just mostly a Republican thing with some Democratic and liberal resentment too, but for the people on the left it is a little different so those will largely vote dem either way.

It is very unlikely for him to successfully moderate his views after what he is been saying; it will carry with him to the election and be impossible to shake off considering his attitude and the media.
 
B-Dubs said:
I am going to feel so conflicted if I win. On one hand, yay me, and on the other, how are we this shit?
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America remembers the good days of Coolidge and Hoover and wants huge tariffs and over the top racism to be back in vogue.

I've been thinking, the GOPe needs a win in NH to have a shot against Trump and Cruz in the SEC primary so they need to start pressuring candidates to drop out right now. Should they be pressuring Rubio to drop out? The GOPe has nothing to threaten Jeb or Kasich with since their careers are over, but they could threaten Rubio...
 
Just for the record, if Sanders somehow got the nomination, I wouldn't be happy. I'd accept it, but I wouldn't be happy about it. I'd still vote for him, of course. That was never in doubt.
 
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