I think he has around a 25% chance of winning that state because I don't think his ground game is strong there for him and I don't think the republican establishment in Ohio likes him to much(i.e. Kasich).
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll
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I think he has around a 25% chance of winning that state because I don't think his ground game is strong there for him and I don't think the republican establishment in Ohio likes him to much(i.e. Kasich).
nature boy
Member
darkstar0155
Member
I fully expect Ohio to be insanely close. However, I also think she will win regardless of what Ohio votes.
whyamihere
Banned
Maybe Trump is ahead, but it's also just one poll. Most of the polling has shown Clinton with a small but durable lead there. You'd also expect if she was up by a small amount that there would be polls showing her losing. We haven't seen that yet.
I hope it's wrong because I want Clinton to win and I want Ann Seltzer to go away for 4 years.
I hope it's wrong because I want Clinton to win and I want Ann Seltzer to go away for 4 years.
plagiarize
Banned
Trump needs to turn the tide. Clinton is ahead. Don't be like those Bernie supporters who saw his numbers going up and presumed they would just keep going up and up and up based on nothing.
So many terrible ideas. Pop? Pop? That doesn't encompass what the drink is. Even if you call it soda pop, soda is still the first word, thus the most important. They are soda fountains, not pop fountains. Soda jerks. Soda shops. Cream soda.
You northerners and your pop are terrible.
To be honest, I'm putting less faith on debates and more on Hillary's amazing lineup of surrogates (along with data/GOTV machine) to get the job done on enthusiasm.
Abinash117
Member
Which is probably it; Hillary didn't have the best of weak and with Trump's not looking to much of any asshole it looks like he might be doing well, or it could be an outliner.
Hillary really isn't that best of an inspiring politician to a quite a few people to others she really, really is. The problem on the exterior she isn't exciting as Obama to many young people. The issue on turnout I think isn't much of a problem. A lot of people assume because she isn't exciting and isn't Obama than minorities and young people won't turnout for her. Personally, I think part of that is simply completely wrong. Minorities have very little reason to not turnout massively for Hillary. Young people although have some reason. But in the end she has the GOTV advantage right now.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
You're phrasing all this like Clinton is behind and needs the debates to make a comeback for some reason.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Trump changed his mind about the lab results
I'm going to release my lab results
*lab results come in*
I'm not going to talk about it
---
Now powell email was hacked? Wow
I'm going to release my lab results
*lab results come in*
I'm not going to talk about it
---
Now powell email was hacked? Wow
Speaking of which, I hope Jon Ralston releases a new NV poll of his gut feeling.
She isn't, but a bad showing could put her further behind into the 'I'm legitimately concerned right now' as opposed to 'I'd feel more comfortable if her lead was larger'.
As it stands now, she's still got a relatively easy path to 270. Let's not also pretend that a month ago, she was in a better place.
balladofwindfishes
Member
She was, but that was also a week after a successful DNC and Trump in the middle of the largest political blunder of this entire election. As much as we wanted it to be, that wasn't the norm and wasn't going to be the final results.
At this point I think a repeat of 2012 is a pretty safe guess for results. But unlike 2012, we don't have Romney actually beating Obama in polls and a path that made sense for Romney to win, Trump has yet to consistently, at any point in the race, poll at a position where he could actually win. His "best" polls during this cycle have shown him with a very slight lead, but most were tied. And that's just not good enough to win the EC.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
If she has SUCH a bad showing that Trump convinces people he's the better, smarter more prepared candidate then it's her own fucking fault entirely.
There is certainly a good chance that Trump mildly outperforms his hilariously low expectations in the first debate and gets some positive coverage. There is absolutely no way he wins on the merits though. As in, actually giving better answers (or any answers) than Clinton. She is going to look smarter and better and more prepared because she is WAY smarter and better and more prepared.
Yes, maybe the media grades him on a curve again. But she'd have to literally be concussed again to give a debate performance so poor that it turns off or converts her formidable support base.
Skiptastic doesn't speak for all Hoosiers. I live in northern Indiana and I call it soda. Soda vs. Pop is actually a pretty common argument among my friends lol. I'm firmly team soda though.
I thought everyone called it soda
radios shipping overview
Member
They're brigading /r/politics pretty heavily, too, ever since the pneumonia news.
I agree with this. Much like Palin, all Trump has to do is not call Hillary a cunt on national television, or melt down and start foaming at the mouth and he has a 'good showing'.
Hillary is held to a much higher standard- Which she should be, and deserves to be. All she has to do is maintain her position that she's in now and continue to prove that she is the best candidate to run this country. We'll have to wait and see what happens.
That's only the first debate though, after the bar is raised he can't lower it again.
phazedplasma
Member
you know what trump would call those ambassadorships?
A GOOD DEAL
someone should tell r/the_donald that
A GOOD DEAL
someone should tell r/the_donald that
balladofwindfishes
Member
Yes, and as someone who was actually getting comfortable being able to have actual discussions on r/politics, it's been an incredibly annoying couple of days
again, you have to ignore the last week to think this.
on an easier stage with a stooge as his interviewer he wasn't given the benefit of the doubt.
we already had the first "debate" and people crucified the moderator and Trump got shit for terrible answers. The "just show up" is out of the way already and the first forum just amped up scrutiny on the media
If many of you think automatically wins the debate by showing up then they are meaningless in the grand scheme. I truly believe they are good when the focus is on policy. I think Trump will flounder on policy and follow up questions and I hope most voters see through that.
Then the onus is on the media and how they "grade" him.
Then the onus is on the media and how they "grade" him.
Abinash117
Member
Enthusiasm really doesn't matter that much, plus it is subjective. A lot of people argued that Bernie had more enthusiasm but it did not win him the primary. It matters more to connect with people and have them get out and vote for you Hillary here as a massive advantage.
Perhaps, putting your bets in the debate is probably what is going on in terms of helping improve things for each candidate not saying that is both candidates strategy, but it will be really important. Personally, I don't think what goes on now between the first debate really matters that much in terms of optics. Of course both sides still really needs to campaign effective, using all their tools effective and such, but looking great, saying something stupid,or smart, and having a controversy or not, isn't that important right now unless it'll have a huge affect on the debate. Obviously the debate will talk about emails and Hillary's health, but they aren't most likely going to spend dozens of minutes on it just because of how debates are structured I think. Controversies is only going to change a few points or depress some support for a temporary amount of time, but it'll change quickly which the debates happen. Again, unless something really, really bad happens and if one side has a consistent bad week that ends in a bad debate.
Yeah, and how much did that effect polling?
He's proven time and time again that he doesn't know what he's talking about, but it seems a lot of the American people don't seem to care. 'It's not what you say, it's how you say it'. We've seen that time and time again.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I mean maybe Trump will win Ohio and maybe the electorate looks more like 04.
But right now this is giving me 2012 vibes where a bunch of pollsters injected lazy punditry into all of their polling. "Well minorities are probably disappointed in Obama so we're probably going to see record low turnout, account for whites being very enthused by Romney, Romney wins by 5 points"
But right now this is giving me 2012 vibes where a bunch of pollsters injected lazy punditry into all of their polling. "Well minorities are probably disappointed in Obama so we're probably going to see record low turnout, account for whites being very enthused by Romney, Romney wins by 5 points"
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
/r/politics is a weird weird place. It seems like there's a lot of constituencies just festering under the surface that come out in droves whenever news comes out.
Yup.
nature boy
Member
Clinton maintains a narrow lead over Trump
^-----Yikes.
They've been campaigning for 18 months, what will the debates change? Folks already know a lot about them.
Debates will just rationalize their support or lack of support for each candidate.
^-----Yikes.
They've been campaigning for 18 months, what will the debates change? Folks already know a lot about them.
Debates will just rationalize their support or lack of support for each candidate.
plagiarize
Banned
That's just it. It didn't effect polling. Despite a moderator going easy on him and hard on Clinton, it did nothing to win people over to Trump.
Where things stand, Clinton wins. Trump needs to drag support from her, not vice versa. That's not going to happen just because he doesn't shit himself on TV and gets graded on a curve.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
It's mutual. I haven't lived in MI for one er 20 years, but the Ohio hate is still strong in me.
Spiritreaver
Member
Same here. I don't have faith in the debates to do much for her even if she does well. I don't have high hopes it will be covered fairly.
Her GOTV effort completely dominates and there's nothing Trump (or the GOP) can do to fix that in time. It's where she's going to get things done. Hopefully it will be more than enough.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
It's weird seeing Patrick Healy on TV because he seems like a pretty reasonable and balanced guy.
Yougov doesn't swing much based on events it seems. No RNC bump, smaller DNC bump than others, and relatively steady during news events.
Yougov doesn't swing much based on events it seems. No RNC bump, smaller DNC bump than others, and relatively steady during news events.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
We agree on this at least.
Regarding MSU, I went to U-M and we always thought it was cute that MSU thought they had a rivalry with us. We all knew our Rival was OSU.
But we all hated Notre Dame.
This is why Hillary's going to win. Trump's ideology seems to be less frightening voters than his complete lack of expertise, experience, or finesse.
Well, she's down more now than she was before the forum. So clearly, his poor showing didn't hurt him. Obviously this bullshit health scandal hurt her a little, but it's clear that his lack of knowledge doesn't seem to bother people very much. But Hillary coming down with a respiratory illness does.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Pop? You people SMDH
As a Georgian I am bound to recognize the spring from which all carbonation floweth from, all is known as coke. Soda is somewhat acceptable for those who are ignorant and pop is for heathens.
As a Georgian I am bound to recognize the spring from which all carbonation floweth from, all is known as coke. Soda is somewhat acceptable for those who are ignorant and pop is for heathens.
RastaMentality
Banned
I think hillary's going to be more of an underdog coming after her sickness but we'lol have to see how the media treats her this and next week.
There should be some oppo dumps coming up so the campaign can inject the topic into the debates right?
plagiarize
Banned
Is she down more than a week ago? Is it clear that the health scandal has done anything?
I see no evidence of either.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Kaine didn't know Clinton had Pneumonia until Sunday. What in the fuck!
Yeah. Pollsters are underestimating minorities and other groups a bit most likely.I'm thinking this election will end up more like 08 minus hilary getting nearly 53% of the vote like Obama did in that year. Trump won't crack 45% and hilary will probably win with a bit over 50%.
Abinash117
Member
In an article it said that Donald Trump doesn't think policy matters in the debate and the Clinton campaign agrees with that. If policy mattered then Trump would be doing much worse and Hillary would be doing much better. The election is closer to what people want to believe. However, it still matters somewhat. Donald Trump isn't going to answer the questions effective at all and just say a rehearsed answer or go off the script and say a word salad. Regardless it'll either be a lack of specifics, be over-simplistic, and/or not make any sort of sense. Hillary will most likely will not just list points of her own, but go after his statements on how bad his idea is and attack his character. I don't think she'll counter with just policy details on her own.
If Donald Trump looks he as no clue on what he is saying, lose some self control, and looks unprepared he is going to lose. Hillary loses if she loses self control and Trump gets under her skin. She just needs to be relentless and calm.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Yeah it's not clear anything has had an effect on anything so far. The polls have just drifted down to a couple points difference in the last month or so.
BotoxAgent
Member
I can't reply to all, but thanks for helping me calm down a bit guys.
The biggest thing about the debate is going to be OT's favorite word: Optics
Tens of millions will be tuning in and will see Clinton giving legit, confident answers and reinforcing her competency. Trump will do Trump things that'll probably horrify those that aren't already in his camp, especially people really paying attention to the race for the first time.
Tens of millions will be tuning in and will see Clinton giving legit, confident answers and reinforcing her competency. Trump will do Trump things that'll probably horrify those that aren't already in his camp, especially people really paying attention to the race for the first time.
RastaMentality
Banned
Yeah I think even just reinforcing that for half the people that tune in is very important for turnout.
Clinton IMO will do great on policy questions and her stances. Trump will give his talking points but it'll be interesting to see how he does with follow ups.
Sadly, we've come to learn that perception matters more than competency.
So yes, how they come across during the debates will have a larger effect on the election than policy will.
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