brianmcdoogle
Member
I don't remember polling after the primary debates, but what was the outcome when Clinton gave detailed policy answers while Sanders gave broad proposals and his stump speech?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll
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RustyNails
Member
Black Mamba needs to look at the Bloomberg poll. Also wish Pigeon was unbanned so he could analyze it as well. As far as I'm concerned, whenever a pollster says "we got no idea how the party ID is shaping up this year guys, so we'll just use the one from 2004 because...." it means they screwed up. The whole idea of polling is to take a snapshot of how the ID is shaping currently, and then weight it reasonably to see where the race stands. If you pull the party ID out of your ass and weight it JUST CUZ!!, then you have shat the bed a little.
Ok the race has tightened. Trump is probably even or within a point or two in OH (inside MoE). But there is no way he's up 5 points.
nature boy
Member
Looks like Trump provided *some* info.
And the physical was conducted by the same wacky doctor, according to CNN.
And the physical was conducted by the same wacky doctor, according to CNN.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Thing about weighing by party ID is you may as well just make up your own top lines while you're at it.
Most pollsters will weigh by age, race and gender as these are inherent to a person rather than something like political party. Like yes, when you overpoll Republicans by 7% you get a 5% Trump lead. Like no shit, most Republicans are going to vote for Trump.
That's...not what Seltzer is saying. She's saying that the people who are saying they are likely to vote are more likely to be white and republican. The likely voter screen is to help determine what kind of turnout is going to happen if the election were held right now. If I'm reading the article right; she's just saying that when asked how likely to vote, the older white men were disproportionately more likely to vote compared to 2012, hence why Trump has such a lead. The comparison to 2004 is her saying that the same thing happened in 2004, which helped lead to a Bush victory.
Basically, at least in Ohio, this poll is indicating Clinton has a big turnout problem currently.
Such a joke. Like this will clear up anything at all. Smh
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Probably hand-written on a cocktail napkin.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Unfortunately I think this is going about what I expected. The country is in a weird place right now psychologically, which is why Trump bounced back when we thought it was over. His competition doesn't really help much either. I've always thought Trump knows what he is doing, and that he isn't just getting lucky or is just a bumbling buffoon. The first debate will be telling. He has a lot that he can work with.
Literally nothing. The polls were static, the debates had virtually no effect despite both sides in here oohing and aahing over minute things.
But the thing is, even in a fucking debate where trump bragged about his dong, the media still declared it a win for Trump. And he kept winning states.
That's why this shit is worrying. He'll spout his usual nonsense but as long as the media says "he put up a good performance" it won't hurt him and in fact could help him.
e: tbc I still think Hillary is going to win but I'm really afraid the race will be super tight.
Yep. I have no idea how anyone who has been paying attention at all during this election cycle thinks that his complete lack of knowledge or policy hurts him. It never has, and I see no reason for it to start hurting him now.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Pretty sick and tired of these Trump surrogates hyperfocusing on a single poll! They should come in here and take notes, because we always steadfastly follow the aggregate.
Fenderputty
Banned
Dabo Swinney is in the bucket of deplorables.
He kept winning states in a Republican primary. This presidential debates will be the first time he's one-on-one (please god no Johnson or Stein) where he will be asked questions of policy, with Clinton right there. He'll look terrible in ways he never could have looked terrible in the GOP primary debates.
Not only will he be one-on-one, he will have an opponent who will actually call him out. The problem with the Republican debates is that he was on stage with people who agreed with most of the outlandish things he said.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
He was just asked policy questions last week.
He dodged them the same way he did during the RNC debates. He will continue to do so for the remainder of the campaign, and I see no reason to think that suddenly people are going to give a shit when they haven't the whole season.
Skiptastic
Member
I actually don't speak for Hoosiers at all on this issue because I grew up outside of Chicago and learned pop there, which makes your Northern Indiana aside even stranger to me lol.
I'm an adopted Hoosier now, though, so I'm the odd one in my land. But I'm team pop til the day I die.
Sometimes I slip up and say soda because I've been living here longer now than I lived in Chicagoland (16 years).
plagiarize
Banned
This is where you have it completely backwards though.
It's not enough for him to avoid anything that could hurt him.
That falls short of what he needs to win, because he's behind.
Lol, that forum last week was softball and Lauer (deservedly) got a lot of criticism for it. The debates will be very different.
Are we going to pretend that her lead hasn't been cut from 6-7 points to 2 in the span of a month? Because that's where we're at right now. Yes, some of that was the post-convention bounce evaporating. Not all of it, though. The race is almost certainly tightening. I would argue that all he has to do is not bomb it and drop hard afterwards, and he's got a shot. Apparently, she's doing enough damage to her own campaign without too much assistance from Trump.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Jill Stein doesn't care at all about human rights:
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/14/12913174/jill-stein-green-party
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/14/12913174/jill-stein-green-party
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Abinash117
Member
It is not about people giving a shit, it is more about how he handles it and responds. How will he respond to allegations about the Trump Organization? What would happen if Hillary attacks him about it if the answer he gave isn't good? What would happen if on the subject about racial injustice or race she'll bring up his racist past and the stuff he has done/said up until now? How would he react if Hillary brings down his "plan" of defeating ISIL?
plagiarize
Banned
Of course we aren't ignoring that. Are we going to pretend that happened in the last week, or that there aren't signs that things have somewhat plateaued?
Like I said before, this is akin to looking at a trend line and presuming it'll just keep on going forever unless something changes. Voting trends tend to be based on things that happened... not on campaign strategies. Clinton isn't losing support to Trump because of their basic appeal or how they run their campaigns. We can isolate *events* to explain why she lost support over the last month... no?
So it will take further events to further drive voters to Trump. Those could indeed happen, but the status quo still favors Clinton. Projecting out trends in whether the polls are going up or down for a candidate doesn't really tell you anything at all, which is why people that look at this data generally don't.
Something will need to happen to further close the gap. Something will have to *change* from where it is right now. Don't get lost in the trends.
BrokenFiction
Member
No matter what you think of Twitter, the HRC account is doing an epic 20 questions call out of Trump vis-a-vis the Newsweek article.
Start here: https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/776093629249191936
Start here: https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/776093629249191936
RustyNails
Member
Dr Oz should be sued his pants off for engaging in a political PR using his show.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
I see a 4.2% gap here. Yeah, it's tightened, but not so much as to panic. Obama was up by the same percentage in 2012.
She's also not that smart.
nature boy
Member
thestopsign
Member
Just registered to vote today in the important swing state of Mississippi.
Atomic Playboy
Member
Judging by the replies any tweet from Hillary's account immediately gets, I'm guessing the deplorables.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
weren't we just talking about an enthusiasm gap?
nature boy
Member
Trump weighs 267 pounds?
Plouffe was mocked for calling him the fattest candidate since Taft.
Plouffe was mocked for calling him the fattest candidate since Taft.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Honestly, it is pretty worthy of panic that a white nationalist candidate whose only ideas about the country are that brown people should not be in the country is close.
That says very bad things about the United States.
Anyway... Colin Powell:
That says very bad things about the United States.
Anyway... Colin Powell:
Anyway... Colin Powell:
Colin Powell doing well for his 2020 run
Isn't it about time you people face the music, even Hillary's friends don't particuarly like her
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Honestly, it is pretty worthy of panic that a white nationalist candidate whose only ideas about the country are that brown people should not be in the country is close.
That says very bad things about the United States.
Anyway... Colin Powell:
Reads like a gaf or reddit quote
Finale Fireworker
Member
You know how people say Eskimos have hundreds of words for snow? Obviously this is false, but Georgians do use "Coke" in place of hundreds of other words. Every year the Georgian Language Comittee retires ten words and replaces them with "Coke." Not sure what's up with that.
I hear they're changing the airport to the Cokeport.
In other news, I live in an elevated state of terror at all times because of Donald Trump and his followers. I have never feared anything more my entire life.
I hear they're changing the airport to the Cokeport.
In other news, I live in an elevated state of terror at all times because of Donald Trump and his followers. I have never feared anything more my entire life.
radios shipping overview
Member
Instead of Dr. Feelgood or Dr. Love, it was Dr. Nick.
Its gonna be a bad few weeks until the debates.
gutter_trash
Banned
The Far-Left drinking the same Putin flavored Kool-Aid as the Far-Left
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Its really frustraiting that the media is pretending like trump has been really "sane" this week and not done any curiel or khan moments. That's because you're not reporting them!
The CNBC interview should be on that level, it was literally insane. Oh and their was violence at his rallies again. But "sane!"
The CNBC interview should be on that level, it was literally insane. Oh and their was violence at his rallies again. But "sane!"
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