PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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mo60 said:
It's possible she wins a surprise state like SC or MO especially if trump collapses hard enough after the debates in polls.I think trump will win a lot typically strong republican states by single digit margins anyway in this election.
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Yeah, SC/MO should be kept on the radar at least.

Kander would be the bigger prize from Missouri though.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Yeah, SC/MO should be kept on the radar at least.

Kander would be the bigger prize from Missouri though.
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Bro, you've been so on point this season with Senate races. You are absolutely right about Kander. He is the prize of the Senate season and absolutely has a larger political future if he wins.
 
Bowdz said:
Indeed.

Michael Hayden touched on this years ago on Fareed Zakaria GPS. He said, that at the current level of intrusion into people's private information, we can prevent all 9/11 style attacks and most mid sized attacks, but won't be able to do much about lone wolf attacks. If we want to stop those, we could, but it would require an extreme increase in terms of domestic surveillance. It's constantly a question about security vs. privacy and Hayden thought that the balance was more or less right as is, but it's a discussion we should have at some point.
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Seems like more effective gun laws would all but eliminate the chance of a successful lone wolf attack. Most terrorists are idiots, and idiots can't build a working bomb (see: shoe bomber, time square bomber, this guy). They sure as shit can point and click an AR-15 though.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
Yes, but scared people won't think that.
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I have never been afraid of terrorism. I was ten when 9/11 happened and it didn't have much of an effect on me. I was a school kid in Massachusetts and New York could have been a million miles away. For most people, 9/11 changed everything. But I've never known anything different, so this is just my life.

But growing up in a post-9/11 world never scared me. I remember in 2005, when The Incredibles came out, Helen tells her children that the enemies they are facing are not like the bad guys on TV shows. If they catch you, they will kill you, she says. Growing up after 9/11 wasn't as candy-coated. There was a lot less effort to protect the innocence of children. We lived in a dangerous world and you could be killed if you weren't careful.

And I feel like it was this mindset that made me feel so safe. I lived in an America that had had its reality check. We became more cautious, more vigilant, and more aware of the dangers of every day life. I grew up believing and still believe that something like 9/11 could never happen again. I am so unafraid of terrorism that it's not even a political issue for me.

What I am actually afraid of are mass shooters. We are surrounded in those. They kill us all the time. But, no, people are afraid of Syrian refugees. Somebody killed a kindergarten class and nobody is afraid to send their kids to school. But don't let brown people on planes, 9/11 happened.

I recognize the irony of complaining about people's fears when I am one of the most neurotic people on this forum, though.
 
Valhelm said:
As a little baby who's never directly been involved in a presidential campaign, what does "good ground game" look like?
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Data-based voter targeting, modifying voter outreach based on minority make-up, Knocking on doors (canvassing), Bussing people to polls who do not have access, reminding about dates, early vote etc, among other things.
 
DrForester said:
So, how were the polls today? We still doomed?
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Pretty much nonexistent aside from a Florida poll from Sienna/Upshot that had Clinton ahead 1 point in LV and 4 in RV. They went deep into detail about how it was conducted and might be the single best poll of the entire cycle.

Also Clinton is outpacing Obama among Latinos in the Latino Decisions poll which is highly encouraging for Florida.
 
Weird

Last week, Scarborough and his "Morning Joe" co-host, Mika Brzezinski, visited the Republican presidential nominee at Trump Tower to rekindle a once-rosy relationship that has turned bitter and adversarial, sources with knowledge of the meeting told CNNMoney.

The three also discussed the possibility of conducting an interview for "Morning Joe," though nothing was decided or finalized, one of the sources said. Scarborough did not respond to a request for comment.
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Bowdz said:
Bro, you've been so on point this season with Senate races. You are absolutely right about Kander. He is the prize of the Senate season and absolutely has a larger political future if he wins.
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Thanks brother. He seemed to fall off of the radar for a bit there but now that Democrats have written off Strickland and seem to be losing faith in Murphy, I'm glad Kander's still working it.

Grexeno said:
Problem with Kander is that even if he wins he's doomed in 2022.
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Quite possibly, but who knows? There might be a Republican president in 2022 giving Democrats a good midterm.
 
Valhelm said:
As a little baby who's never directly been involved in a presidential campaign, what does "good ground game" look like?
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Saturation. When you have enough manpower to sweep neighborhoods/phone bank multiple times to get verification if the members of the targeted household have voted. The list shortens as early voting continues and you can expand to hit more marginal people as early voting locks in votes. A good ground game has enough warm bodies to do the work as well as have enough work for the warm bodies to do (meaning your data is well organized and your target voters are prioritized).

This is kind of why the local office count in a state matters as they serve for a hub for this activity.
 
For those who forgot, the Tonight Show will broadcast Hillary's appearance today, the one where the face mask gag.

Should be good, although it was recorded on Friday, so she won't say anything about the NY bomb. Haha, wonder if Trump will be stupid again and attack her for not saying anything about it.
 
Fragamemnon said:
Saturation. When you have enough manpower to sweep neighborhoods/phone bank multiple times to get verification if the members of the targeted household have voted. The list shortens as early voting continues and you can expand to hit more marginal people as early voting locks in votes. A good ground game has enough warm bodies to do the work as well as have enough work for the warm bodies to do (meaning your data is well organized and your target voters are prioritized).

This is kind of why the local office count in a state matters as they serve for a hub for this activity.
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this is also why the organizing work at/surrounding rallies is pretty important (like how we got well over 150 people to sign up for volunteer shifts at the Elizabeth Warren rally at OSU on Saturday by virtue of the ticket for entry being a sign-up sheet)

because you get a relatively simple way to expand the number of warm bodies you've got working from those local offices
 
Zukkoyaki said:
Because they have the most awkward model of any major forecaster and will literally include any poll from anywhere in their sample. Honestly nothing has changed since yesterday. Looking at their updates it seems to be the result of adding some polls from freaking February and still including the LA Times poll on a daily basis.
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phisheep said:
Nat found some old polls down the back of the sofa. Nothing to worry about.
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Bam Bam Baklava said:
LAT staying the way it is and that national poll where both of them are getting 35 or below. The model is only as good as what gets put in it and right now there's a lot of poor quality stuff going in.
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Ah, that makes sense. I mean, it kinda doesn't, but you get what I mean :P

I guess I just need to stop checking the daily update literally every day.
 
DrForester said:
So, how were the polls today? We still doomed?
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Looking like this --

jdDUyfj.png


No need to panic, but some cause for heavy breathing
 
eBay Huckster said:
this is also why the organizing work at/surrounding rallies is pretty important (like how we got well over 150 people to sign up for volunteer shifts at the Elizabeth Warren rally at OSU on Saturday by virtue of the ticket for entry being a sign-up sheet)
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Once early voting in a state starts you see a huge push for getting the attendees to immediately go vote right after the rally.

It's important to think about your list of favorable voters during early voting in the context of a burndown chart-you work that list like mad to try to get them to early voting so you can have resources in the last week/election day to get all the tougher votes to the polls.
 
NeoXChaos said:
Polls for the week

NC
PPP
Upshot

WI
Marquette

Monmouth has polls in field as we speak.
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I expect the Wisconsin poll to cause more panic than it should. It going red is about as likely as Georgia or Arizona going blue in the current race situation.

North Carolina will be interesting. The last two were from YouGov and Q and were both Clinton +4
 
But the message from all of these polls is that Clinton’s problems with younger voters are rooted not in policy but in personal assessments. Big majorities of Millennials, the polls show, view her as untrustworthy, calculating, and unprincipled. Which is another way of saying they have accepted the portrait that Bernie Sanders painted of her during their long primary struggle. In the GWU Battleground Poll, 66 percent of Millennials said she says what is politically convenient, while only 22 percent said she says what she believes. In the Quinnipiac survey, 77 percent said she was not honest and trustworthy. “It’s hard for them after hearing that for a year [from Sanders] to just turn on a dime,” Baumann says.
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Those are big headwinds, and privately more top Democratic strategists are growing concerned that she will not entirely resolve them before November. (Even Sanders’s first fall foray onto the trail for Clinton reflected that resistance. His two campus appearances in Ohio last weekend drew small crowds that might not have filled the overflow room during his primary campaign.) Baumann believes that given the doubts many Millennials harbor about Clinton, it’s highly unlikely in a four-way race that she will ever equal Obama’s 60 percent showing from 2012 (much less his 67 percent from 2008). Reaching 55 percent, he says, is probably the most she can achieve. But the difference between that and her current level of Millenial support, in the mid-40s, he adds, might be the difference between success and failure in some of the most closely contested states.
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http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/hillary-clinton-millennials-philadelphia/500540/
 
The fact that Bad Nate uses those stupid Ipsos state polls just drives me absolutely insane. It's even worse in that he "unskews" them based on their national poll bias. Whatever. Nate was a mistake. Good Nate forever.
 
It's not like the Clinton campaign hasn't started a very obvious effort to court younger voters. Bernie, Warren and Obama out campaigning for her, new ads detailing her long history of fighting for people like them, a speech in Philly aimed at them, another one tonight in Iowa...
 
The younger set will come through and at nearly the same proportion as Obama, especially in states that matter. Trump offers them nothing and they know BS when they see it.

The bigger issue is turnout. Getting 60% of the share is great but not so great if turnout is down 20% over 2012.
 
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