BenjaminBirdie
Banned
I'm actually worried about Dem turnout if she's leading by 10 on Election Day (likely)
PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
- Thread starter Bronx-Man
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I'm actually worried about Dem turnout if she's leading by 10 on Election Day (likely)
Manmademan
Member
ticket splitting is dead.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/us/politics/republicans-ticket-splitting.html?_r=0
90% of voters don't bother. They either vote straight party or stay home.
I'm not. Democrats and dem leaning independents are frothing at the mouth to "stop trump"- and that was before yesterday's business.
Hillary is +8 or above on election day, democrats have a decent shot at taking the house. whether that means spiking democratic turnout, depressing republican turnout, or a combination of both (likely) i'm fine with that.
Abstrusity
Member
Day 12 of Trump's worst week ever. He has the biglyest weeks. Yuge weeks. The best.
Schadenfreude is delicious.
Schadenfreude is delicious.
Yeah, it makes zero sense to drop Trump. "He's toxic" is not a good reason when you need people to vote for him so they also vote for you.
Tangled Up in Blue
Banned
If Trump quits the race, I don't see how the GOP survives, at least at the national level. The infighting and recriminations would tear them apart. At the very least, the organization would be in shambles for the next 3-4 election cycles.
And for those saying he will never quit, he absolutely would to save face if it looks like he is going to get crushed in an 80/20 (or worse) Clinton landslide. He's already provided himself an out earlier in the year when he talked about the election being "rigged."
And for those saying he will never quit, he absolutely would to save face if it looks like he is going to get crushed in an 80/20 (or worse) Clinton landslide. He's already provided himself an out earlier in the year when he talked about the election being "rigged."
Yesterday really happened huh?
The best thing about this? Trump is off message. He's not talking trade etc.
His campaign and the GOP will be asked about this. That audio will be played repeatedly and now he trying to attack Bill and her over this. It's not going to work and that apology video isn't helping shit.
The best thing about this? Trump is off message. He's not talking trade etc.
His campaign and the GOP will be asked about this. That audio will be played repeatedly and now he trying to attack Bill and her over this. It's not going to work and that apology video isn't helping shit.
Felix Lighter
Member
I don't know what came first the death of the ticket splitters or the end of compromise in the legislative branch but they are certainly tied together. For me it's pretty much impossible to consider a Republican for any legislative position, regardless of the person because their current platform is completely unacceptable to me and it's just one more vote for the anti-science, anti-environment, pro-wealthy, anti-social safety net, bigoted, gun lobby driven, religious driven agenda of the GOP.
If only he could get a loan from his father.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Ignatz Mouse yesterday before the news broke said:
My best-timed post ever.
benjipwns
Banned
Which would mean 10% do. Which we might call the deciders.
And that article only reports on Senate races in Presidential years which is stupid considering their staggered terms.
When it talks about the House it tells us this:
But doesn't tell us anything about any other years.
benjipwns
Banned
So he would do it in an event that has never happened in American history.
Manmademan
Member
nope. because you're ignoring that those people are likely residing in areas with unusually popular or strong candidates with cross party appeal- Grassley in Iowa is probably a good example here, as is Portman in Ohio this year. They aren't evenly distributed.
No point in considering house races, since most voters couldn't tell you who their house rep is at gunpoint.
I want a Hillary landslide just to see those /r/the_Donald fucks cry and bitch all night.
benjipwns
Banned
Right, which is why the information provided is meaningless for considering ticket splitting in down-ballot races.
Yes, no point in considering House races when discussing House races. What.
Chezzymann
Member
Scientists were wrong. Black holes aren't the most sense thing in the universethis has to be sarcasm right? no one can be this dense...
I love that it's under an article titled "Is Trump's Campaign Over?".
Tangled Up in Blue
Banned
To be clear, Trump's name is on the ballot and he's locked in, so there's no changing that. But he could still hold a press conference, announce that he's ending his campaign (even if unofficially), and GOP turnout would crater into single digits. That's what I'm talking about. THAT would be the death of the party.
And Trump would not be bothered by that in the slightest.
Right? I woke up thinking no way that was real.
Then I watched the apology again and my schadenfreude arrived again.
Live look Reince
He probably pulled out the wood grain alcohol now
He's guzzling Germ-X just to feel alive.
Manmademan
Member
Voters will "split tickets" for popular candidates that they're aware of that cross party lines. this is ONLY applicable for senate candidates. There is mountains of data all over the place showing american voters have no idea who their house representatives even are.
House races are almost always decided strictly along party turnout lines because of the above, so implying that voters might "split tickets"- turning out for hillary for president but voting R the rest of the way for candidates they've never heard of- and save the GOP house margin is absurd. They don't like the name at the top of the R ticket, they're most likely to just stay home, rather than "vote hillary".
User 463088
Banned
WHERE IS KELLYANNE!?
To be fair, Trump is a once in a 100 years national disaster possibility.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
This is pretty much a once in a hundred year disaster tho
Finale Fireworker
Member
Uh... it's me. Nice to meet you. Tell me what's important to you and, uh, donate to my GoFundMe to make it happen.
Tangled Up in Blue
Banned
Just so everyone understands how bad this video is for Trump, the political fallout from this is on the same level as catching him using the n-word, and it's just a step below him being indicted for rape or murder. He's done.
All but the most hardcore bigots are walking away now, and while Republicans won't vote for Clinton, they will stay home on Election Day. So, no, it's not implausible that Clinton will capture 70-80% of the popular vote.
We are in uncharted waters now, but this whole election has been one for the history books, so that's nothing new.
All but the most hardcore bigots are walking away now, and while Republicans won't vote for Clinton, they will stay home on Election Day. So, no, it's not implausible that Clinton will capture 70-80% of the popular vote.
We are in uncharted waters now, but this whole election has been one for the history books, so that's nothing new.
Manmademan
Member
nobody does.
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2008/04/whos_your_daddy_the_psychology.html
80% of the public has no idea what the name of their representative is, 68% have no idea of the party, and 85% can't name any issues they stand for.
House races simply aren't high profile enough to show up on the radar of the average voter, especially in a presidential year.
You're a popular senator with statewide recognition and a warchest, your name is Grassley or Portman- voters may turn out for you despite hating the top of the ticket.
Everyone else? absolutely not. Trump being toxic is going to depress R turnout, and claims to the contrary are fantasy.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
I'm trying to think of a presidential candidate that's worse and I'm drawing a blank.
Nope. They're on radio silence while it sinks in.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
That video makes Billy Bush look bad too, so I can see why he wouldn't want to bring attention to it.
Yep, JEB! and GWB cousin.
Also the I've seen the "Is this the President we want for our daughters?" ad on CNN's live stream 3 times now in 10 minutes. Fucking amazing.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I do wonder if she shakes his hand at the debate. I don't know if I could.
i_am_ben
running_here_and_there
Hillary is resting.
She will say it once, and then Trump will repeat it 5 times because he can only say complex phrases for 15 minutes after hearing them, then forgets.
shinra-bansho
Member
TBF who would think that the cousin and nephew of Presidents would be hosting fluff trash TV.
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