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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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Many experts think Democrats will need that number to be much higher. Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory, thinks Democrats will have to be ahead in the "generic ballot" by about 13 points to do so, rather than 4 or 5.
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Grief.exe said:
Likely just wants to get as much of his saber rattling agenda done during the lame duck as he is well aware Obama doesn't want to make a move that could upset the election.
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That's my take on it too. He also can't resist the possiblity of a Trump presidency, since it lets him accomplish his diplomatic and territorial objectives decades faster, hence the meddling.
 
HylianTom said:
Another Kaine quote from The View:
"I wasn’t going in to win the debate, I was going in trying to win the election."
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If he was going in to win the debate, I think a conversation on conversion therapy would have been enough to murder Pence live on stage.

Pence's stance with intelligent design, evolution, and climate are still too dangerously acceptable by most Americans. But supporting the idea that gays need to be "fixed"? Fewer people buy that idea.
 
B-Dubs said:
Pretty much everyone knew that would be the starting pistol. It was only a matter of time until people started coming forward after that denial. The only way a denial like that ends something like this is if he actually never did those things, outside of that scenario it only throws gas on the fire.
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Yea, people called that out at the debate itself.

Someone even tweeted, that this was setup, punchline will be next week.
 
Stein really is The Other Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...d_syria_policy_could_start_a_nuclear_war.html

Jill Stein: Trump Is Less Dangerous Than Clinton; She Will Start Nuclear War With Russia

It is now Hillary Clinton that wants to start an air war with Russia over Syria by calling for a no fly zone.

We have 2000 nuclear missiles on hairtrigger alert. They are saying we are closer to a nuclear war than we have ever been.

Under Hillary Clinton, we could slide into nuclear war very quickly from her declared policy in Syria.

I sure won't sleep well at night if Donald Trump is elected, but I sure won't sleep well at night if Hillary Clinton elected. We have another choice other than these two candidates who are both promoting lethal policies.

On the issue of war and nuclear weapons, it is actually Hillary's policies which are much scarier than Donald Trump who does not want to go to war with Russia.

He wants to seek modes of working together, which is the route that we need to follow not to go into confrontation and nuclear war with Russia.
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I'm still shocked that Repubes who still support Donald are doing so because they think he's going to implement their agenda.

They can't even control him right now! He's at war with them!

Trump is only going to implement the Trump agenda.

And no one knows what the Trump agenda is.
 
So Jill Stein is working for Putin from the left. Donald Trump is working for Putin from the right. Gary Johnson is meandering through the New Mexico desert looking for the particular cactus where he left his weed.
 
adam387 said:
So, I have issues with Benchmark Politics. I don't think they're super great, but you know, whatever.

http://benchmark.shareblue.com/counties/

This is kind of interesting, though. They've mapped it out county by county. Again, I don't 100% trust their data, but it's interesting!
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The thing for me is that I love the idea of Benchmark Politics. Having a good county level model is a huge help in understanding what's going on in a state as returns are coming in (though margins are only half the story, turnout is also key).

It's just that the execution is so off. A comparison of their primary benchmarks to the actual results in counties with less than 5% black population could be used in an intro stats textbook as an example of uncorrelated data. Also I find their self-promotion annoying and it sometimes crosses the line into being what I would consider unethical (e.g. calling themselves the most accurate primary forecaster based on a rating from the middle of the primaries).
 
diaspora said:
They'll try, I get the sense that Hillary isn't someone that fucks around on fopo.
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Yep, I'm confident in Clinton.

Grief.exe said:
Likely just wants to get as much of his saber rattling agenda done during the lame duck as he is well aware Obama doesn't want to make a move that could upset the election.
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True. I think more accurately, it's not that Putin thinks Obama is weak per se, but that he knows that between your point about the impending election, Obama's tendencies and beliefs and the tightrope Obama has to walk to navigate all of the complications and restrictions on US involvement in the ME, he can get free shots in.
 
jiji said:
Stein really is The Other Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...d_syria_policy_could_start_a_nuclear_war.html

Jill Stein: Trump Is Less Dangerous Than Clinton; She Will Start Nuclear War With Russia
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the Alt-Left is backed by the same puppet master as the Alt-Right

many European Weirdo-Left parties align themselves with European Weird0-Right parties in Europe when it comes to foreign affairs and Russia.

Putin's tentacles has infiltrated American political leaders (Trump + Stein)
 
HylianTom said:
Another Kaine quote from The View:
"I wasn’t going in to win the debate, I was going in trying to win the election."
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Which is why I disagree with anyone who says Kaine performed poorly in that debate. He accomplished the campaign's objectives, which didn't happen to be based on scoring more "points."
 
NeoXChaos said:
Screen_Shot_2016-10-12_at_1.09.51_PM.0.png
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I don't think using midterms here is a good measure. Turnout is so much higher in general elections. And, We also have no history of a candidate running as much of a toxic and failing campaign here.

If she wins by more than double digits I doubt ticket splitting will be as massive as that general ballot suggests.
 
One thing I think these spokespeople and surrogates are not taking into consideration when they try to dismiss individual claims as false, is that the dozen or so claims so far don't all need to be true to sink him, all that needs to be true is one claim and one instance, because he stated at the debate that he never did it even once.

The likelihood of at least one (if not most) of these accusations being entirely true is extremely high given his history and what he admitted on the tape, and on the Stern shows.
 
Amir0x said:
Yeah i dont think he could conceive of how much smarter Hillary is than him. She is playing Risk, he is playing Connect Four.
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She's playing pro level MtG and Go at the same time while he is trying to figure out how to set up Chutes and Ladders.
 
Jerry Falwell Jr on CNN right now saying he talked to Trump last night and Trump said he has email evidence to prove that the allegations of these women aren't true. Feel like we would have seen these emails already if they existed.
 
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