Black Mamba said:
The dirty secret most people don't know is there already is a hard cap (no, not luxury tax). It's the 58% must be allocated to the players. This serves as an actual hard cap. But it's not on a team basis.
The league doesn't want a team hard cap, despite Stern's smoke blowing. What it really wants, besides a lower % going to the players, is better revenue sharing. The league as a whole makes more by having teams like Miami, LAL, etc being superteams, but some teams struggle as a result. So what they need to do is make some of the money come back to them from other channels. And that is what will happen.
The last thing the NBA wants is parity where Spurs vs Nets NBA Finals (and teams like them) become the norm. This would kill the league.
Whatever happens, I guarantee you teams like the Lakers will be protected. Stern is not an idiot. He knows where the $$$ lies.
Like I said, I don't think a hard-cap is going into place, but it's a possibility. It has shown to work.
The problem is, a majority of the NBA is small-market teams. With only a handful of large markets having a franchise. One of those markets, Toronto, can't even buy a player because nobody wants to live and play in Canada. Leaving a few larger markets in the states to compete for players.
Stern works for the owners. Unless all the small market team owners are colluding with the large market teams, they want a level playing field. Revenue sharing is a way for all owners to make money, but it doesn't compare to the money that could potentially be made by having a successful team.
Right now, the NBA has a system that favours the large market. The NBA is dying, and not sustainable. If they changed nothing, the NBA wouldn't last another 20 years. They are close to bankrupt as it is, and a number of teams are teetering on the edge. However, unlike the NHL, they have no where to put these teams.
You are assuming there is some type of consiiracy to keep big markets competitive and small markets down, there isn't. It's what is causing the NBA to become the joke it is now.
All that said. The rules regarding trades and retaining players are going to change drastically. Chances are bird rights for sign and trades will go out the window, and a max contract will be larger on the team you are draft with, then any team you go to after the fact.
It's going to be very difficult if not impossible for the Lakers to acquire Dwight for this reason. If the rules did stay the exact same, you would have to assume the Magic want Bynum for Dwight. They probably don't. They will want a number of young prospects and draft picks. They will have to go into rebuilding mode, and you can't do that with the team they have plus Bynum.
The Lakers then face the prospect of having to resign Howard to a max deal. Another rule change that may happen, is you can only sign a player to a max deal while being over the cap, if at the time of acquiring the player, the team was at or under the cap, not over it. This rule is very popular and has been talked about numerous times over the past year.
The likelyhood of him going to the Lakers, and not to a team with young up and coming beasts like Blake is very slim. Could it happen? Sure, anything can. Will it? Probably not. My opinion is no way in hell.