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Circana (NPD) November 2023: #1 COD MWIII #2 Spider-Man 2 #3 Hogwarts Legacy; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, XBS #2 Units + Revenue

Hardware sales being down double digits means they need a bigger price cut ASAP. The consoles were bundled to hell and back but most people who would spend $500 on a console already have one.

Time for a permanent price cut to $349 or risk a stagnating player base.

Why do you think XSX is $350 on target today?

They are both scrambling because their expensive fucking consoles are not flying off the shelves like they did last year. They need to get down to $300 asap but they are both releasing $500 slim versions thinking that covid demand is still there. its not.

I was on bestbuy on blackfriday doing some last minute shopping and immediately noticed that while the $399-449 skus were sold out, the $500 cod and spiderman bundles were still available. after the entire day of black friday sales. sony is at 40-45 million already. they are not gonna sell to those casuals at $500 a pop no matter how many games they bundle. I think it will need to be $350 minimum like the xsx today and then $300 by holiday next year.

20% decline in the 3rd official year and 4th holiday is not good. This is the year they peak, not last year. They have at least 4 more holiday seasons to go. a 20% decline each year going forward is going to be a disaster.
Jesus...you're being way dramatic about this.

These consoles are hardly getting lots and lots of exclusives lately.

PS5 specially is peaking in 2025/2027 with 1st party releases. Games sell consoles. Covid slowed down sales and it was only a matter of time until that craziness caught up with these brands.
November last year was actually the first month the PS5 wasn't constricted in terms of units available to purchase. I remember how everyone was shocked at PS5 selling over 1.3M in a single month out of nowhere and it also had Ragnarok releasing that November.

This november happened after a full year of availability everywhere and the last 1st party game was released in October (Spider-Man 2).

PS5 is selling like it is without a huge help of Sony's output for now. It's mostly 3rd party games and exclusivity deals from those studios / publishers outside of Sony.

Games like Ghost of Tsushima 2, Wolverine, FFVII Rebirth, etc will always attract new buyers.
There's also the fact the slim model released at a higher price than the 2020 original release. This never happened before.

Now Xbox barely reaching half a million consoles sold on Black Friday month...with those discounts even with Series S is...something.


It doesn't seem like Alan Wake 2 went very well...

Now this is fucking depressing. Games like Alan Wake deserve much more, fuck this.

Do you have the estimates for Nov 2016? Best I could find was 1.1m for PS4 and 1.0m for XBO.

November 2023 for PS5/XBS is equivalent to November 2016 for PS4/XBO

PS5 (Nov 2023) = 1.05m
PS4 (Nov 2016) = 1.10m

XBS (Nov 2023) = 0.58m
XBO (Nov 2016) = 1.00m

Basically PS5 is at least close to what PS4 was doing in the equivalent month but Xbox Series is far behind Xbox One Nov 2016 sales.
Jesus...Xbox selling HALF of what Xbox One did last gen is something for sure...
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Do you have the estimates for Nov 2016? Best I could find was 1.1m for PS4 and 1.0m for XBO.

November 2023 for PS5/XBS is equivalent to November 2016 for PS4/XBO

PS5 (Nov 2023) = 1.05m
PS4 (Nov 2016) = 1.10m

XBS (Nov 2023) = 0.58m
XBO (Nov 2016) = 1.00m

Basically PS5 is at least close to what PS4 was doing in the equivalent month but Xbox Series is far behind Xbox One Nov 2016 sales.
XS selling half of what X1 sold is a fucking disaster.
PS5 selling slightly less than PS4 is slightly disappointing but PS4 was selling like a fucking champ back then so its more or less fine. Especially at much higher prices.
 

Killjoy-NL

Member
Honestly wondering how many people bought the Portal without owning a PS5. Which says a lot about how people would take a full Sony handheld now compared to the PSP and PSV.
The box of Portal does mention that the PS5 is sold seperately and that PS5 is required.

Then again, there are some dumb people out there.
 
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NEbeast

Member
Why do you think XSX is $350 on target today?

They are both scrambling because their expensive fucking consoles are not flying off the shelves like they did last year. They need to get down to $300 asap but they are both releasing $500 slim versions thinking that covid demand is still there. its not.

I was on bestbuy on blackfriday doing some last minute shopping and immediately noticed that while the $399-449 skus were sold out, the $500 cod and spiderman bundles were still available. after the entire day of black friday sales. sony is at 40-45 million already. they are not gonna sell to those casuals at $500 a pop no matter how many games they bundle. I think it will need to be $350 minimum like the xsx today and then $300 by holiday next year.

20% decline in the 3rd official year and 4th holiday is not good. This is the year they peak, not last year. They have at least 4 more holiday seasons to go. a 20% decline each year going forward is going to be a disaster.
Isn't this the only month the ps5 is down? Why the fear mongering?
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Jesus...you're being way dramatic about this.
ACDR6DE.jpg


I think this is pretty dramatic from Xbox a few months after raising the price to $550.

PS is more or less fine for now, but 20% declines from here on in for the last 4 years of the gen is going to be a fucking disaster. No one wants this. You will see price cuts. Mark my words.

And while exclusives will help, they just launched the biggest exclusives in the history of their first party. Spiderman is bigger than GOW, TLOU, Uncharted, Horizon and only behind GT in overall sales. And the PS5 still saw a 20% decline the next month. Exclusives sell consoles, yes, but this is a price issue first and foremost. The core audience that makes up the first 40 million already have the consoles. now they need to go after the late adopters who are not going to buy $500 bundles. Sorry.
 
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StereoVsn

Member
Do you have the estimates for Nov 2016? Best I could find was 1.1m for PS4 and 1.0m for XBO.

November 2023 for PS5/XBS is equivalent to November 2016 for PS4/XBO

PS5 (Nov 2023) = 1.05m
PS4 (Nov 2016) = 1.10m

XBS (Nov 2023) = 0.58m
XBO (Nov 2016) = 1.00m

Basically PS5 is at least close to what PS4 was doing in the equivalent month but Xbox Series is far behind Xbox One Nov 2016 sales.
Oh wow, that’s a pretty stark comparison. So basically almost half the sales compared to same Xbox One time period.
 

StereoVsn

Member
No they don't. When "Barbie Horse Adventure" can get a physical release but Remedy decides they are better than that and would prefer a limited avenue of sales, they get/got what they fucking deserve.
And let’s not forget Epic store exclusive launch which killed any sort of PC sales possibilities.

It was just a dumb way of handle things. And it’s the Studio’s own fault.
 
ACDR6DE.jpg


I think this is pretty dramatic from Xbox a few months after raising the price to $550.

PS is more or less fine for now, but 20% declines from here on in for the last 4 years of the gen is going to be a fucking disaster. No one wants this. You will see price cuts. Mark my words.
I actually think this price drop happened because of how badly Xbox sold in November. Walmart and Amazon both lowered the price to $349 on December 1st, and Target matched a few days later. Best deals available over black friday were a very limited supply of $399 and $449 bundle deals. Target did have a $350 PS5, but that was in store only, limited to first five customers. I don't think anyone was expecting such a soft holiday sales season. Era of government helicopter money is over, inflation is still really high, and people's credit is running thin. I bet we see this in more areas than gaming this year.
 

Elios83

Member
Disappointing month with the yoy declines all around. I doubt this is the holiday season Sony was hoping for in the US. In Europe instead they're going super strong.
Xbox is just a total disaster, no wonder they're trying to save the holiday season with 349-399$ deals, it's doing the numbers of a dead platform...
 
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SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
I actually think this price drop happened because of how badly Xbox sold in November. Walmart and Amazon both lowered the price to $349 on December 1st, and Target matched a few days later. Best deals available over black friday were a very limited supply of $399 and $449 bundle deals. Target did have a $350 PS5, but that was in store only, limited to first five customers. I don't think anyone was expecting such a soft holiday sales season. Era of government helicopter money is over, inflation is still really high, and people's credit is running thin. I bet we see this in more areas than gaming this year.
Online Black Friday sales were up 10% this year, and store traffic was up 5%. I think this is largely due to the most hardcore gamers already purchasing these consoles last year especially as the year was jam packed with must play games. Everyone who calls themselves a hardcore gamer already owns a console.

That means now its mostly soccer moms and grandparents buying consoles for their kids and no one is spending $500 on these consoles. I think people still see $300 as a the sweet spot for gaming consoles. My son is in 4th grade now and he says only like 2 other kids have a PS5 in their house. Everyone owns a switch or ipads. By this time in previous gens, sony had the slim out and selling for $299. Even for the PS3 era when they launched at $599 and struggled to get the prices under control for the first two years.

Selling one million isnt anything to scoff at, and situation is actually dire for xbox, but they would be wise to realize that the dude bros willing to pay extortionary prices to scalpers and line up to buy these consoles already have these consoles. its time to pivot and go after the moms or risk losing even more kids to robolox on phones and ipads, or the switch.
 

Woopah

Member
Hardware thoughts

We're in for a rough few months in terms YoY comparisons, in which I expect all three platforms to be down. PS5 and XBS will be compared to the months after shortages ended, and Switch will soon enter its 8th year and has no major software in sight.

Software thoughts

Hogwarts seemed to have done excellent on Switch, and it's good to Naruto and Star Ocean chart.

SMRPG seems to have had a decent debut, and Ragnarok and Jedi Survivor are showing very strong legs.

TOTK seems to have not great legs. I wonder if that is because legs are actually low, or if it has a strong digital ratio.

Switch should not be used to compare against consoles. its effectively a handheld selling to kids just like the DS did. Every hardcore gamer who owns a switch already has one by now.

Switch was outselling the PS5 just last year. Means nothing. PS5 is a fucking juggernaut. XS sales should be compared only to the PS5 and the previous gen's X1. Switch's hybrid model has completely ruined any kind of fair comparison they might have with traditional consoles.
Switch should absolutely be compared. Its a dedicated gaming device just like PS5 and Xbox Series.
Jesus...you're being way dramatic about this.

These consoles are hardly getting lots and lots of exclusives lately.

PS5 specially is peaking in 2025/2027 with 1st party releases. Games sell consoles. Covid slowed down sales and it was only a matter of time until that craziness caught up with these brands.
November last year was actually the first month the PS5 wasn't constricted in terms of units available to purchase. I remember how everyone was shocked at PS5 selling over 1.3M in a single month out of nowhere and it also had Ragnarok releasing that November.

This november happened after a full year of availability everywhere and the last 1st party game was released in October (Spider-Man 2).

PS5 is selling like it is without a huge help of Sony's output for now. It's mostly 3rd party games and exclusivity deals from those studios / publishers outside of Sony.

Games like Ghost of Tsushima 2, Wolverine, FFVII Rebirth, etc will always attract new buyers.
There's also the fact the slim model released at a higher price than the 2020 original release. This never happened before.

Now Xbox barely reaching half a million consoles sold on Black Friday month...with those discounts even with Series S is...something.

Now this is fucking depressing. Games like Alan Wake deserve much more, fuck this.


Jesus...Xbox selling HALF of what Xbox One did last gen is something for sure...
Its very very unlikely PS5 will peak that late in its lifecycle. You'd need a Pokémon or Kimect type event for that.

Either 2023 or 2024 is likely to be its peak year (partially depending on the impact of the Pro).
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
I think Sony is fine. And people seem to be overreacting. Selling 1M consoles in one month and being 200k less than what you did last year and 100k less than what your previous console did in its 3rd year... is not the end of the world, especially when you consider that its still retailing for $500, albeit with a game bundled in.

The good thing about this is that come next year we are more than likely going to finally be seeing a price drop for the PS5.

Microsoft on the other hand, only managing 500k sales in November, needs to be worried. Especially when you consider that its got a SKU that retails for under $300. Syre does explain why we are seeing the XSX going for $350.
 
I'm assuming the 20% decrease for PS5 is mainly because the units that actually had price reductions were the older models which were simply being phased out of the channels for Black Friday week, and there maybe wasn't as much of them present as some would have assumed. Meanwhile the new model went on sale in the middle of November IIRC but with no sales promo pricing.

So not only did it not have a full month to actually sell, it did so when other systems were being offered for cheaper during Black Friday. We'll probably see the real selling potential for the new PS5 model with December's results, not November's.

Switch's decline makes sense, as it's several years old now and while games like Hogwarts would have had some effect in boosting sales, that game was already on other platforms earlier this year. Super Mario Wonder & Mario RPG Remake are good sellers but not enough to pump up sales by 20% to match previous year's. The system is just getting long in the tooth but it's still doing very well all things considered.

Xbox's numbers are just sad and there is no other way to put it. They barely did over 500K last November if the NPD leaks are accurate, so being down 20% with aggressive pricing on the X (the model seemingly more in-demand) might be showing absolute signs of clear brand erosion/death. And I don't think Series X units are in such limited quantities knowing MS would have known that model is the more desired of the two, had known this since the start of the year, and made sure to have enough to meet any demand for the holiday shopping season in one the few markets Xbox is still doing okay in hardware sales-wise. They will desperately need that COD marketing in full effect for 2024 if they want to salvage their hardware situation.
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
Online Black Friday sales were up 10% this year, and store traffic was up 5%. I think this is largely due to the most hardcore gamers already purchasing these consoles last year especially as the year was jam packed with must play games. Everyone who calls themselves a hardcore gamer already owns a console.

That means now its mostly soccer moms and grandparents buying consoles for their kids and no one is spending $500 on these consoles. I think people still see $300 as a the sweet spot for gaming consoles. My son is in 4th grade now and he says only like 2 other kids have a PS5 in their house. Everyone owns a switch or ipads. By this time in previous gens, sony had the slim out and selling for $299. Even for the PS3 era when they launched at $599 and struggled to get the prices under control for the first two years.

Selling one million isnt anything to scoff at, and situation is actually dire for xbox, but they would be wise to realize that the dude bros willing to pay extortionary prices to scalpers and line up to buy these consoles already have these consoles. its time to pivot and go after the moms or risk losing even more kids to robolox on phones and ipads, or the switch.
I think this is fine for Sony. And yes, you are right that the number of people willing to pay $500 for these things is being stretched. Unfortunately, Sony is still going to finish this year both the CY and the FY having sold significantly more PS5s than they did the previous year. And that is going to relieve them of some pressure.

I expect that next year we will be seeing a PS5 for $400 bundled with a game.
 
I think this is fine for Sony. And yes, you are right that the number of people willing to pay $500 for these things is being stretched. Unfortunately, Sony is still going to finish this year both the CY and the FY having sold significantly more PS5s than they did the previous year. And that is going to relieve them of some pressure.

I expect that next year we will be seeing a PS5 for $400 bundled with a game.

If the PS5 Pro is coming 2024 and won't be priced above $499, the current regular PS5 will definitely get a holiday sale promo for $399 with an included game.

However I'm still thinking $499 Pro is just a "soft" price without the disc drive, and it'll be more like $549 with a disc drive bundle.

Maybe people held off on getting a PS5 until the PS5 Slim was released.

Would say it's more likely people are misremembering what version of the PS5 actually had those price cuts. It was the older models, which were probably just enough in number to justify a price cut to flush them out of the channels ahead of the new model's release. Those pricing offers on the old model didn't stick around very long through November anyway, it was just for Black Friday, Cyber Monday and maybe a few days ahead of both of those IIRC.

Technically speaking the new model has a higher price for the Digital, $449 vs $399, but the added convenience of being a physical machine with the optional disc drive. So I figure the November numbers for PS5 are reflective of the limited stock of old models that could be sold, and the new one releasing (IIRC) around halfway through the month, with no sales promo in a very sales-sensitive shopping period (Black Friday).
 
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Vlodril

Member
The hardware numbers seem weird. I wonder if it's some misunderstanding with the wording of the tweet or something. Otherwise definitely a huge drop for everyone.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
Hopefully MS has the money to invest in the price cut, and Sony can do the same with the cheaper slim? I expect we will see YoY declines from both from now on if we do not see a significant price cut.
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
If the PS5 Pro is coming 2024 and won't be priced above $499, the current regular PS5 will definitely get a holiday sale promo for $399 with an included game.

However I'm still thinking $499 Pro is just a "soft" price without the disc drive, and it'll be more like $549 with a disc drive bundle.
I think it would be $500 without a disc drive period. And built in a way that you can buy the current PS5 DD and use it on the Pro too. And I expect that in May/June next year, we will be seeing the PS5 $400 console with a bundled game and no disc drive too. I just don't see Sony being able to maintain this $500 price point for most of next year. In fact, I expect that as early as March next year, the PS5 DS will be being sold for $399 (not $450), or $450 with a bundled game.

What I am curious to see is how the $350 pricing for the XSX would impact its sales. If even with that its sales are still poor, then that is pretty much the end of that console.
 
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Woopah

Member
I think Sony is fine. And people seem to be overreacting. Selling 1M consoles in one month and being 200k less than what you did last year and 100k less than what your previous console did in its 3rd year... is not the end of the world, especially when you consider that its still retailing for $500, albeit with a game bundled in.

The good thing about this is that come next year we are more than likely going to finally be seeing a price drop for the PS5.

Microsoft on the other hand, only managing 500k sales in November, needs to be worried. Especially when you consider that its got a SKU that retails for under $300. Syre does explain why we are seeing the XSX going for $350.
I think we also have to take software timing into account.

Last year Sony and Nintendo had their major holiday title and bundle in November. This year they had them in October.
 
Hopefully MS has the money to invest in the price cut, and Sony can do the same with the cheaper slim? I expect we will see YoY declines from both from now on if we do not see a significant price cut.

I don't think PS5 will have any major YoY decline although I still kind of question the price of the new Digital at $449. It should probably be $399 or at least throw in a cheap game if it's going to be $449.

Xbox is the one that risks seeing a significant YoY decline IMO unless they make some drastic changes. The Day 1 PC stuff is actively hurting the value proposition of the console itself, that is plainly obvious and has been for a long time. Hellblade 2 has to deliver. Avowed has to do good and make up for the rather ugly artstyle shift. MS should probably aggressively tie in free cosmetics, skins, item & in-game currency perks for COD and other 1P games to Game Pass subscriptions. In addition to market the hell out of next year's COD of course.

And maybe stop with the damn Samsung Game Pass commercials. Just so many mixed signals from them at the top, no wonder the hardware is struggling to survive.

I think it would be $500 without a disc drive period. And built in a way that you can buy the current PS% DD and use it on the Pro too. And I expect that in May/June next year we will be seeing the PS5 $400 console with a bundled game and no disc drive too. I just don't see Sony being able to maintain this $500 price point for most of next year. In fact, I expect that as early as March next year, the PS5 DS will be being sold for $399 (not $450), or $450 with bundled games.

What I am curious to see is how the $350 pricing for the XSX would impact its sales. If even with that its sales are still poor, then that is pretty much the end of that console.

Yeah, same here. It's a bit unfortunate the macro conditions with the economy, but it is what it is. Granted if Sony do a $50 price cut by the time you suggest, that'll be roughly 3.5 years after the system was put on sale. Not a bad stint at all to go until feeling the need, to do a first actual, permanent price cut. I think the Pro will certainly also boost sales for 2024 as well; IIRC the PS4 Pro sold at a 1:5 ratio for every base PS4.

Of course, that was before Sony really started doing PC ports, and I do genuinely think they're starting to see why that could be a bad deal for the console in the long run (for the marquee games) even with 2-year windows. I don't think Jim Ryan's comments on PC being a competing platform were a one-off. My point being, if you want to give people a reason to buy a PS5 Pro, the Pro should be your priority for making beefier-performing versions of your games, not PC. There is just way too much competing crossover IMHO. So I think HFW is probably going to be one of the last (if not the last) ports of a 1P traditional title to PC for the rest of this gen, or at least before they significantly increase that window of porting opportunity to 4-6 years, as it should be (if they still want to bring the games to PC anyhow). Obviously a lot (not all) of the non-traditional GaaS titles will probably be exempt from this however.

Microsoft have been keeping that $349 Series X sale going for well into December. This really does in ways feel like a final gambit; like you said if December sales are still poor, that's more or less a wrap. I think they can recover somewhat with next year's COD and getting hyper-aggressive with marketing and Game Pass-tied free perks/rewards and such, but even that might only get them but so far. In any case, market performance this holiday will have serious implications on what business model Microsoft continues Xbox with going forward. I don't see the hardware itself going away, but I can absolutely see a shift away from it operating on a normal console business model, the hardware becoming much more PC-like, more focused on running Windows (in some form) like a "standard" PC, shifting away from a subsidized model (selling the console at higher price for upfront profit), going more fully multi-platform in software support, etc.

Which honestly would all be good things IMO for them and open up opportunities to actually be meaningfully unique in the market, instead of acting mainly like a poor man's PlayStation. It would just make people like Tim Dog absolutely angry and livid tho, because they'd know what that type of shift means for their console-warring rhetoric: it'd come to an end.
 
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mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives


It doesn't seem like Alan Wake 2 went very well...


This is bad. I would have thought AW2 would have done quite well. Maybe making a physical copy would have helped!

Ouch.

Its basically an adventure game. has practically no shooting. not sure why they made a game like this but it won several awards so i guess it was like one of those oscar bait movies.

They need to go back to Max Payne style games. Mix in story with actual gameplay. I dont like control despite the heavy focus on combat because the story sucks. Max Payne has that heart they need to mix in with tight combat.

Nah man. Companies need to make games like Alan Wake 2. We NEED them! You don't want every game needing pew pew pew all the time.
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Hopefully MS has the money to invest in the price cut, and Sony can do the same with the cheaper slim? I expect we will see YoY declines from both from now on if we do not see a significant price cut.
MS is all in. Even if they dont want to invest in the price cut, they know they have to.

And the cheaper slim isnt as cheap thanks to AMD fucking over both Sony and MS with a very small node shrink. 6nm from 7nm. Thats why they are selling for the same price.

The PS4 and x1 slims were 16nm down from 28nm. Almost a 100% reduction in size, cost and more importantly power savings. Sony and MS should have gone to 5nm or 4nm but AMD isnt ready or its too fucking expensive. Whatever the case, the slims being too expensive is not helping.

its the reason why Sony didnt get the Pro out this year like they did in 2016. IIRC, it made up for 20% of all sales and were likely the reason why they saw a boost from all the hardcore gamer double dippers like myself. They didnt have that for me this year and they went down exactly 20%. Again, this is on AMD more so than Sony or Microsoft because they are fucking slacking this gen and Sony and MS just have to wait for AMD to catch up.
 
Hopefully MS has the money to invest in the price cut, and Sony can do the same with the cheaper slim? I expect we will see YoY declines from both from now on if we do not see a significant price cut.

They are selling the X for $349 NOW

What price do you want to get for that hardware? $100????
 
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twilo99

Gold Member
This is for the whole year and Charlie Intel is using the same Circana slides from the OP.

MW3 is the second best selling game of the *year* after Hogwarts, which came out all the way back in Feb.

Thanks I missed the annual thing

More numbers



Fortnite pulling some crazy numbers
 

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
I still can't believe Hogwarts Legacy didn't get nominated for anything. People want this game to go away so bad....lol
I hope they make another one.
Sales dont mean anything when it comes to awards. COD, Fifa, NBA and Madden top the list every year and never get nominated. Hogwarts is an ok game that was never going to win any awards.

The players choice awards didnt even nominate it for the final five. It did make the top ten barely at number 10.



you will see the same thing on the gaf awards. No self respecting gamer is picking hogwarts over RE4, Zelda, BG3, AW2, Star Wars, Mario Wonder, Spiderman 2, or even flawed games like FF16 or Starfield.
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
I still can't believe Hogwarts Legacy didn't get nominated for anything. People want this game to go away so bad....lol
I hope they make another one.
What I dont understand is, that game has thus far managed to sell more than 15M units as of May. Probably closer to 20M now. So my question is, the whole media blackout/boycott... who is it for? I am sure, that if the best-selling game of the year, is not even mentioned in an event made to celebrate games... then something is being lost in translation somewhere...
 
This is bad. I would have thought AW2 would have done quite well. Maybe making a physical copy would have helped!



Nah man. Companies need to make games like Alan Wake 2. We NEED them! You don't want every game needing pew pew pew all the time.

FWIW, Epic don't share their sales data with NPD/Circana. That's why Alan Wake 2 isn't listed on the charts. I doubt the game's commercially bombed in any way, it's probably doing quite well on all the platforms in fact.
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
Microsoft have been keeping that $349 Series X sale going for well into December. This really does in ways feel like a final gambit; like you said if December sales are still poor, that's more or less a wrap. I think they can recover somewhat with next year's COD and getting hyper-aggressive with marketing and Game Pass-tied free perks/rewards and such, but even that might only get them but so far. In any case, market performance this holiday will have serious implications on what business model Microsoft continues Xbox with going forward. I don't see the hardware itself going away, but I can absolutely see a shift away from it operating on a normal console business model, the hardware becoming much more PC-like, more focused on running Windows (in some form) like a "standard" PC, shifting away from a subsidized model (selling the console at higher price for upfront profit), going more fully multi-platform in software support, etc.
I am glad you said this, was going to say something about it in my post but figured I leave gamepass out of things.

This is what I was thinking, so say this $350 XSX thing doesn't move the needle, then that means, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that the only card left for MS to play is gamepass. At that point, it means that they are ALL in on gamepass, more specifically, obviously so. It would mean that the Xbox division becomes a gamepass first division and not and console thing... well, I believe that is already the case, but at that point, it becomes more obvious than it is now.

So, having said all that... what if gamepass doesn't move the needle either? What if COD is bundled into GP, alongside all the games that will be coming to it next year, they still end the year having sold even fewer consoles than they did this year and still pretty much being stagnant on GP subs? What then? Could we then say, that the GP experiment has failed? Or are we going to get more engagement stats instead of subscriber stats (which is what should be used to track the success of GP) again and call it a day?
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Online Black Friday sales were up 10% this year, and store traffic was up 5%. I think this is largely due to the most hardcore gamers already purchasing these consoles last year especially as the year was jam packed with must play games. Everyone who calls themselves a hardcore gamer already owns a console.

That means now its mostly soccer moms and grandparents buying consoles for their kids and no one is spending $500 on these consoles. I think people still see $300 as a the sweet spot for gaming consoles. My son is in 4th grade now and he says only like 2 other kids have a PS5 in their house. Everyone owns a switch or ipads. By this time in previous gens, sony had the slim out and selling for $299. Even for the PS3 era when they launched at $599 and struggled to get the prices under control for the first two years.

Selling one million isnt anything to scoff at, and situation is actually dire for xbox, but they would be wise to realize that the dude bros willing to pay extortionary prices to scalpers and line up to buy these consoles already have these consoles. its time to pivot and go after the moms or risk losing even more kids to robolox on phones and ipads, or the switch.

Parents and grandparents are definitely not looking to spend 500 dollars on a console for a kid they don't really want playing video games in the first place. Then you have the general lack of kid games. I think Sony especially has dropped the ball on a huge market here. Hogwarts Legacy is really all there is attracting kids on PS5.

I think Sony will be in a good position if the PS5 Pro launches for $500, the PS5 Standard drops to $400, and the PS5 Digital drops to $350. This will create a really strong used console market as well.

I just can't help but think the PS5 Pro could launch for $600 though.
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
Parents and grandparents are definitely not looking to spend 500 dollars on a console for a kid they don't really want playing video games in the first place. Then you have the general lack of kid games. I think Sony especially has dropped the ball on a huge market here. Hogwarts Legacy is really all there is attracting kids on PS5.

I think Sony will be in a good position if the PS5 Pro launches for $500, the PS5 Standard drops to $400, and the PS5 Digital drops to $350. This will create a really strong used console market as well.

I just can't help but think the PS5 Pro could launch for $600 though.
I believe it launches at $500. But without a disc drive, albeit being compatible with the DD on the market right now. And I think the PS5 would be sitting at $399 around that time. Also without a disc drive, but likely bundled with a game.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the PS5 Disc SKU is going to become very very very very scarce. Basically, outside the Spiderman and COD bundles, I suspect it won't be sold as a standalone unit. Hence why I feel the PS5 digital will not only be the one on the market but also get a price drop to $399 something at or around March next year. Or maybe later.

The writing is on the wall, if they are finding it difficult to move $500 consoles in November/December.... then they must know there is no way they can maintain respectable sales during the normal months of next year at that price point.
 
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