Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
I don't think PS5 will have any major YoY decline although I still kind of question the price of the new Digital at $449. It should probably be $399 or at least throw in a cheap game if it's going to be $449.
Xbox is the one that risks seeing a significant YoY decline IMO unless they make some drastic changes. The Day 1 PC stuff is actively hurting the value proposition of the console itself, that is plainly obvious and has been for a long time. Hellblade 2 has to deliver. Avowed has to do good and make up for the rather ugly artstyle shift. MS should probably aggressively tie in free cosmetics, skins, item & in-game currency perks for COD and other 1P games to Game Pass subscriptions. In addition to market the hell out of next year's COD of course.
And maybe stop with the damn Samsung Game Pass commercials. Just so many mixed signals from them at the top, no wonder the hardware is struggling to survive.
Yeah, same here. It's a bit unfortunate the macro conditions with the economy, but it is what it is. Granted if Sony do a $50 price cut by the time you suggest, that'll be roughly 3.5 years after the system was put on sale. Not a bad stint at all to go until feeling the need, to do a first actual, permanent price cut. I think the Pro will certainly also boost sales for 2024 as well; IIRC the PS4 Pro sold at a 1:5 ratio for every base PS4.
Of course, that was before Sony really started doing PC ports, and I do genuinely think they're starting to see why that could be a bad deal for the console in the long run (for the marquee games) even with 2-year windows. I don't think Jim Ryan's comments on PC being a competing platform were a one-off. My point being, if you want to give people a reason to buy a PS5 Pro, the Pro should be your priority for making beefier-performing versions of your games, not PC. There is just way too much competing crossover IMHO. So I think HFW is probably going to be one of the last (if not the last) ports of a 1P traditional title to PC for the rest of this gen, or at least before they significantly increase that window of porting opportunity to 4-6 years, as it should be (if they still want to bring the games to PC anyhow). Obviously a lot (not all) of the non-traditional GaaS titles will probably be exempt from this however.
Microsoft have been keeping that $349 Series X sale going for well into December. This really does in ways feel like a final gambit; like you said if December sales are still poor, that's more or less a wrap. I think they can recover somewhat with next year's COD and getting hyper-aggressive with marketing and Game Pass-tied free perks/rewards and such, but even that might only get them but so far. In any case, market performance this holiday will have serious implications on what business model Microsoft continues Xbox with going forward. I don't see the hardware itself going away, but I can absolutely see a shift away from it operating on a normal console business model, the hardware becoming much more PC-like, more focused on running Windows (in some form) like a "standard" PC, shifting away from a subsidized model (selling the console at higher price for upfront profit), going more fully multi-platform in software support, etc.
Which honestly would all be good things IMO for them and open up opportunities to actually be meaningfully unique in the market, instead of acting mainly like a poor man's PlayStation. It would just make people like Tim Dog absolutely angry and livid tho, because they'd know what that type of shift means for their console-warring rhetoric: it'd come to an end.
As someone who called the price increase, Sony desperately needed to increase their margin on the PS5 Digital. There is a reason why they didn't really push a digital bundle this holiday season. You can only subsidize that model so much and maintain your operating income.
I do think we'll see the price cuts next year though, maybe as early as late spring/early summer.
There is no recovering from Day 1 PC. The damage has been done. They needed to shift gears before Starfield came out. Same thing with Day 1 GamePass. I think they'll increase the price and mabye create a Day 1 Tier that is more cost effective. What you'll hear is, of course they were going to raise the price after people kept claiming they wouldn't.
I honestly don't know what Xbox looks like as a brand in 2025.
Sony makes a tremendous amount of money from their PC Ports. They'll double down on that and I doubt it is having any real effect on console sales. We're still seeing Sony 1st party titles sell as well as you'd expect them to.
I am glad you said this, was going to say something about it in my post but figured I leave gamepass out of things.
This is what I was thinking, so say this $350 XSX thing doesn't move the needle, then that means, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that the only card left for MS to play is gamepass. At that point, it means that they are ALL in on gamepass, more specifically, obviously so. It would mean that the Xbox division becomes a gamepass first division and not and console thing... well, I believe that is already the case, but at that point, it becomes more obvious than it is now.
So, having said all that... what if gamepass doesn't move the needle either? What if COD is bundled into GP, alongside all the games that will be coming to it next year, they still end the year having sold even fewer consoles than they did this year and still pretty much being stagnant on GP subs? What then? Could we then say, that the GP experiment has failed? Or are we going to get more engagement stats instead of subscriber stats (which is what should be used to track the success of GP) again and call it a day?
I don't think people buy consoles for CoD. I think they buy CoD on whatever console they own. We'll ultimately see if CoD can boost GamePass, but even if it did, it would come at a great expense and then the conversation shifts to retention.
GP has definitely failed and I think that experiment is ending soon. When you can only get games like Blade on there, you know you have a problem.