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Circana (NPD) November 2023: #1 COD MWIII #2 Spider-Man 2 #3 Hogwarts Legacy; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, XBS #2 Units + Revenue

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
I don't think PS5 will have any major YoY decline although I still kind of question the price of the new Digital at $449. It should probably be $399 or at least throw in a cheap game if it's going to be $449.

Xbox is the one that risks seeing a significant YoY decline IMO unless they make some drastic changes. The Day 1 PC stuff is actively hurting the value proposition of the console itself, that is plainly obvious and has been for a long time. Hellblade 2 has to deliver. Avowed has to do good and make up for the rather ugly artstyle shift. MS should probably aggressively tie in free cosmetics, skins, item & in-game currency perks for COD and other 1P games to Game Pass subscriptions. In addition to market the hell out of next year's COD of course.

And maybe stop with the damn Samsung Game Pass commercials. Just so many mixed signals from them at the top, no wonder the hardware is struggling to survive.



Yeah, same here. It's a bit unfortunate the macro conditions with the economy, but it is what it is. Granted if Sony do a $50 price cut by the time you suggest, that'll be roughly 3.5 years after the system was put on sale. Not a bad stint at all to go until feeling the need, to do a first actual, permanent price cut. I think the Pro will certainly also boost sales for 2024 as well; IIRC the PS4 Pro sold at a 1:5 ratio for every base PS4.

Of course, that was before Sony really started doing PC ports, and I do genuinely think they're starting to see why that could be a bad deal for the console in the long run (for the marquee games) even with 2-year windows. I don't think Jim Ryan's comments on PC being a competing platform were a one-off. My point being, if you want to give people a reason to buy a PS5 Pro, the Pro should be your priority for making beefier-performing versions of your games, not PC. There is just way too much competing crossover IMHO. So I think HFW is probably going to be one of the last (if not the last) ports of a 1P traditional title to PC for the rest of this gen, or at least before they significantly increase that window of porting opportunity to 4-6 years, as it should be (if they still want to bring the games to PC anyhow). Obviously a lot (not all) of the non-traditional GaaS titles will probably be exempt from this however.

Microsoft have been keeping that $349 Series X sale going for well into December. This really does in ways feel like a final gambit; like you said if December sales are still poor, that's more or less a wrap. I think they can recover somewhat with next year's COD and getting hyper-aggressive with marketing and Game Pass-tied free perks/rewards and such, but even that might only get them but so far. In any case, market performance this holiday will have serious implications on what business model Microsoft continues Xbox with going forward. I don't see the hardware itself going away, but I can absolutely see a shift away from it operating on a normal console business model, the hardware becoming much more PC-like, more focused on running Windows (in some form) like a "standard" PC, shifting away from a subsidized model (selling the console at higher price for upfront profit), going more fully multi-platform in software support, etc.

Which honestly would all be good things IMO for them and open up opportunities to actually be meaningfully unique in the market, instead of acting mainly like a poor man's PlayStation. It would just make people like Tim Dog absolutely angry and livid tho, because they'd know what that type of shift means for their console-warring rhetoric: it'd come to an end.

As someone who called the price increase, Sony desperately needed to increase their margin on the PS5 Digital. There is a reason why they didn't really push a digital bundle this holiday season. You can only subsidize that model so much and maintain your operating income.

I do think we'll see the price cuts next year though, maybe as early as late spring/early summer.

There is no recovering from Day 1 PC. The damage has been done. They needed to shift gears before Starfield came out. Same thing with Day 1 GamePass. I think they'll increase the price and mabye create a Day 1 Tier that is more cost effective. What you'll hear is, of course they were going to raise the price after people kept claiming they wouldn't.

I honestly don't know what Xbox looks like as a brand in 2025.

Sony makes a tremendous amount of money from their PC Ports. They'll double down on that and I doubt it is having any real effect on console sales. We're still seeing Sony 1st party titles sell as well as you'd expect them to.

I am glad you said this, was going to say something about it in my post but figured I leave gamepass out of things.

This is what I was thinking, so say this $350 XSX thing doesn't move the needle, then that means, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that the only card left for MS to play is gamepass. At that point, it means that they are ALL in on gamepass, more specifically, obviously so. It would mean that the Xbox division becomes a gamepass first division and not and console thing... well, I believe that is already the case, but at that point, it becomes more obvious than it is now.

So, having said all that... what if gamepass doesn't move the needle either? What if COD is bundled into GP, alongside all the games that will be coming to it next year, they still end the year having sold even fewer consoles than they did this year and still pretty much being stagnant on GP subs? What then? Could we then say, that the GP experiment has failed? Or are we going to get more engagement stats instead of subscriber stats (which is what should be used to track the success of GP) again and call it a day?

I don't think people buy consoles for CoD. I think they buy CoD on whatever console they own. We'll ultimately see if CoD can boost GamePass, but even if it did, it would come at a great expense and then the conversation shifts to retention.

GP has definitely failed and I think that experiment is ending soon. When you can only get games like Blade on there, you know you have a problem.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
I still can't believe Hogwarts Legacy didn't get nominated for anything. People want this game to go away so bad....lol
I hope they make another one.
I played the game and didn’t think it was anything truly special. It had some good ideas and a good story but too much filler and un fun stuff.
 

Unknown?

Member
EDIT: Added estimates for November.

November estimations

PS5
- 1050k
XBS - 580k
NSW - 570k

Full Estimations for 2023

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-23430,000200,000280,000
Feb-23560,000240,000290,000
Mar-23660,000280,000340,000
Apr-23360,000180,000420,000
May-23270,000160,000450,000
Jun-23430,000240,000350,000
Jul-23270,000160,000240,000
Aug-23400,000210,000200,000
Sep-23490,000300,000200,000
Oct -23370,000200,000210,000
Nov - 231,050,000580,000570,000
YTD5,300,0002,750,0003,550,000
LTD17,200,00012,450,00042,960,000

Results for 2022 (NSW monthly numbers are Welfare's revised estimates but it's total is from NPD, PS5 and XBS monthly and total numbers are from NPD)

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-22369,000307,000270,000
Feb-22128,000261,000410,000
Mar-22282,000489,000540,000
Apr-22234,000267,000365,000
May-22119,000177,000270,000
Jun-22277,000260,000385,000
Jul-22301,000147,000310,000
Aug-22341,000251,000295,000
Sep-22494,00288,000325,000
Oct-22456,000261,000250,000
Nov-221,328,000730,000920,000
Dec-221,331,000942,0001,490,000
Total5,660,0004,480,0005,830,000
LTD11,900,0009,700,00039,410,000
0DUsjdQ.png

* Estimates as of November 30, 2023.
Almost double in Xboxs strongest market AND month. Crazy.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
I believe it launches at $500. But without a disc drive, albeit being compatible with the DD on the market right now. And I think the PS5 would be sitting at $399 around that time. Also without a disc drive, but likely bundled with a game.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the PS5 Disc SKU is going to become very very very very scarce. Basically, outside the Spiderman and COD bundles, I suspect it won't be sold as a standalone unit. Hence why I feel the PS5 digital will not only be the one on the market but also get a price drop to $399 something at or around March next year. Or maybe later.

The writing is on the wall, if they are finding it difficult to move $500 consoles in November/December.... then they must know there is no way they can maintain respectable sales during the normal months of next year at that price point.

I mean, I don't think Sony thought they were going to keep the price of the PS5 at 500 for the whole generation. I think the PS5 is on a ten-year plan, maybe even longer if they release a PS5 handheld towards the end of the decade.

PS5 could be the first platform to hit 200 million units if they release a handheld PS5 model.

I think Sony wanted to continue the PS4 as a platform but supply chain constraints made that impossible to do while focusing on getting as many PS5s created as possible. As a result, the PS4 never really dropped in price after the launch of the PS5.

You can tell because until Spider-Man 2, all these games were cross-gen and I think Spider-Man 2 might have initially been cross-gen.

So eventually the PS5 will be sold for 250-300 dollars, which will make it a pretty mass-marketable device. I think PS6 especially if Microsoft bows out of the market, may be released initially as a premium device.
 

Woopah

Member
What I dont understand is, that game has thus far managed to sell more than 15M units as of May. Probably closer to 20M now. So my question is, the whole media blackout/boycott... who is it for? I am sure, that if the best-selling game of the year, is not even mentioned in an event made to celebrate games... then something is being lost in translation somewhere...
It wouldn't get mentioned just for selling well, in the same way that FIFA or COD would not get mentioned just for selling well.
 
I am glad you said this, was going to say something about it in my post but figured I leave gamepass out of things.

This is what I was thinking, so say this $350 XSX thing doesn't move the needle, then that means, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that the only card left for MS to play is gamepass. At that point, it means that they are ALL in on gamepass, more specifically, obviously so. It would mean that the Xbox division becomes a gamepass first division and not and console thing... well, I believe that is already the case, but at that point, it becomes more obvious than it is now.

So, having said all that... what if gamepass doesn't move the needle either? What if COD is bundled into GP, alongside all the games that will be coming to it next year, they still end the year having sold even fewer consoles than they did this year and still pretty much being stagnant on GP subs? What then? Could we then say, that the GP experiment has failed? Or are we going to get more engagement stats instead of subscriber stats (which is what should be used to track the success of GP) again and call it a day?

Hey, this is why 'Microsoft Gaming' exists 😉. If the hardware still doesn't move, and Game Pass can't move the hardware, and there's a 1% chance (at best) that Microsoft ceases Day and Date with PC to give Xbox that push...then going full-tilt 3P publisher to prioritize B2P sales is the only real option left.

However, there is a dedicated community of Xbox diehards who would be absolutely devastated with that playing out, so I still think it'd be in Microsoft's interest to keep Xbox gaming hardware around. Ride out the Series X and S as they are, maybe use them as test pilots to flight ecosystem changes that you then commit to with the next wave of gaming hardware. And with that gaming hardware, basically shift away from marketing and positioning it like a console, so all the practices you'd normally engage in with a console (1P console exclusives, 3P exclusives, subsidized upfront hardware MSRP, etc.) just get left behind. None of that's done Microsoft any favors the past 10 years now anyway, plus it'd also let them escape constantly getting compared to Sony & Nintendo (and generally coming up the lesser in those comparisons).

They honestly should have never diverted their focus from PC gaming anyway. They used to own it in the '90s between DOS and Windows; while Windows is still "needed" for full PC gaming options, the vast majority of today's PC gamers associate it with Valve & Steam, not Microsoft. And it's Valve who get all that sales revenue and licensing cuts on PC, not Microsoft. Now Valve are in a position to seriously shift PC gamers away from Windows and towards Linux with Steam OS, and products like the Steam Deck. If anything Microsoft should at least be focusing their efforts on retaining PC gamers through Windows and Windows-first gaming hardware and the best means of doing that is with a product that integrates both which you have full control over.

Actually I'd say when it comes to PC in some ways Microsoft are getting a taste of what they did to IBM way back in the day; they haven't completely fumbled the bag the way IBM did but they've seen Windows lose a lot of steam in certain fields of productivity (business, creative etc.), and could risk that happening with "higher-end" gaming if stuff like Steam Deck & Steam OS continue to accelerate their success. So maybe leveraging Xbox and the lessons they've learned from being in the traditional console space, to make an appealing product for PC gaming that can beat Valve on their own turf (and solidify people to Windows when it comes to PC gaming) would be a best course while being a fuller 3P on Sony, Nintendo etc. console systems.

And, well, still supporting Steam of course. I'm just saying there is probably a sizable market for a console-like PC gaming NUC type system and MS already make products in the PC space that tightly couple/optimize hardware with their OS kernel & software (Surface). So now just shift Xbox towards something like that.

Damn. Might need to get to Costco. Could use something to replace my shit ass fire stick on my bedroom tv, and this can play games for a nice bonus.

TBH $149 for a Series S is a pretty solid deal. That's fire-sale pricing. "Everything must go!!!" type of pricing. If you aren't too fussed with having the best graphics and framerate (on console) and mostly watch TV/movies while playing lesser-intensive games...that's a pretty good deal.
 

Mr.Phoenix

Member
So eventually the PS5 will be sold for 250-300 dollars, which will make it a pretty mass-marketable device. I think PS6 especially if Microsoft bows out of the market, may be released initially as a premium device.
You took that shit right outta my head. I think what we got this gen with over 3 years of cross-gen games is just the beginning of what is to come. And I expect when the PS6 comes along, we will be seeing cross-gen games on it well into the 5th year of that platform. Even if that means the PS5 just becomes a reconstructed 1080p machine.

And as such, the PS6 would come into the market at a premium. I am thinking around $7-800 in its launch year, and $5-600 a year later. and another $100 price drop the following year.
 
EDIT: Added estimates for November.

November estimations

PS5
- 1050k
XBS - 580k
NSW - 570k

Full Estimations for 2023

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-23430,000200,000280,000
Feb-23560,000240,000290,000
Mar-23660,000280,000340,000
Apr-23360,000180,000420,000
May-23270,000160,000450,000
Jun-23430,000240,000350,000
Jul-23270,000160,000240,000
Aug-23400,000210,000200,000
Sep-23490,000300,000200,000
Oct -23370,000200,000210,000
Nov - 231,050,000580,000570,000
YTD5,300,0002,750,0003,550,000
LTD17,200,00012,450,00042,960,000

Results for 2022 (NSW monthly numbers are Welfare's revised estimates but it's total is from NPD, PS5 and XBS monthly and total numbers are from NPD)

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-22369,000307,000270,000
Feb-22128,000261,000410,000
Mar-22282,000489,000540,000
Apr-22234,000267,000365,000
May-22119,000177,000270,000
Jun-22277,000260,000385,000
Jul-22301,000147,000310,000
Aug-22341,000251,000295,000
Sep-22494,00288,000325,000
Oct-22456,000261,000250,000
Nov-221,328,000730,000920,000
Dec-221,331,000942,0001,490,000
Total5,660,0004,480,0005,830,000
LTD11,900,0009,700,00039,410,000
0DUsjdQ.png

* Estimates as of November 30, 2023.
PS5: 17,200,000
XBX: 12,450,000

This is...on Xbox's strongest market. It's already 5M behind. There's no way Xbox One was losing by this much last gen...holy shit.

Phil was talking about how they lost in the most important gen, last gen...but they are literally losing even more ground this generation. By the time this gen ends i have no idea where they could be tbh.
 

Unknown?

Member
PS5: 17,200,000
XBX: 12,450,000

This is...on Xbox's strongest market. It's already 5M behind. There's no way Xbox One was losing by this much last gen...holy shit.

Phil was talking about how they lost in the most important gen, last gen...but they are literally losing even more ground this generation. By the time this gen ends i have no idea where they could be tbh.
Last gen PS4 never pulled far away. By the time they were 8 years it was barely 5 million difference.
 

NickFire

Member
Not surprised that Sony was down. Average person's purchasing power has plummeted (inflation may have slowed, but it has not reversed). And Sony just jacked up the cost of owning a PS5 by 20 bucks a year unless you have no interest in multiplayer, and PS+ essential games are generally trash. They've also done a shitty job at getting people excited for future games. They've still got the best lineup (IMO) and are my platform of choice. But it's not all roses.
 

MrA

Member
Holy crap PS is definitely lower than expected but Xbox is showing that it's already a dying platform this gen.
Sony has been running solid promotions for the last few months on and off, those probably bit into sales a bit
Xbox is in trouble
I think it's safe to say nintendo is never going to drop the price of the switch, should have given a real discount to the switch oled this year if they wanted to keep the system moving
I think switch 2 is going to be announced sooner rather than later

What Starfield not even charting in November's NPD top 20?


What Happened Cat GIF by BuzzFeed
Unfortunately the game was only okay, dropped a spot on the yearly chart as well,
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
You took that shit right outta my head. I think what we got this gen with over 3 years of cross-gen games is just the beginning of what is to come. And I expect when the PS6 comes along, we will be seeing cross-gen games on it well into the 5th year of that platform. Even if that means the PS5 just becomes a reconstructed 1080p machine.

And as such, the PS6 would come into the market at a premium. I am thinking around $7-800 in its launch year, and $5-600 a year later. and another $100 price drop the following year.

I think the pandemic and the mechanical hard drive made it very difficult to maintain the PS4 as a platform, but PS5 as a platform is definitely going to be a thing.

I think we're going to see a different type of console market, especially if Microsoft isn't around to compete in it.

We're going to see diminished returns on graphics and we're going to see that the PS5 is far more scalable than the PS4 was.s

Sony can release a handheld PS5 towards the end of the decade and continue to sell games that are available on the main console. When you look at PC, we don't even really look at it in terms of generations.

If you think back Gameboy launched in 1989 and the Gameboy Advance launched in 2001... The Gameboy Color was essentially a mid-gen refresh, but the GameBoy platform ran for 12 years.

A handheld PS5 probably extends the PS5's life cycle by another 5 years. So anywhere between 10-15 years, maybe even longer. Who is to say that a PS5 handheld doesn't get its own mid-gen refresh.

PS6 would be the start of a new platform and as you said, could start off quite expensive. That's also why the PS5 Pro is really important. It needs to be able to stretch the life cycle out.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Holy shit, Miles Morales is still in the top 20 3 yrs later.

Sony is starting to experience a bit of that Nintendo result.

  • It was the biggest game for PlayStation 5 at launch
  • Sequel to a game that has sold 30+ million units across PS4/PS5/PC
  • Spider-Man 2 just came out and people want more Spider-Man
This game, God of War Ragnarok, Gran Turismo 7, and Spider-Man 2 will sell for the rest of the PS5 life cycle.

Ragnarok is still selling. Just imagine if they can make a successful tv show, but again, that is why Sony does remasters and remakes. They don't get a ton out of selling God of War 2018 for 20 dollars a pop. Ragnarok is 70 dollars and it is still charting... I could see a God of War 2018 remaster and a God of War 1 remake.

Something is giving Gran Turismo serious legs on PS5, whether that be VR, the game updates, the Gran Turismo movie, or all of the above.

Of games that are 40 dollars or more on the PS Store, Sony has 3 games in the top 24. The Last of Us Part 2 remaster pre-order is 31st and going for 50 dollars rather than 40 dollars. The remaster might also push sales of the Part 1 remake up as well, especially if the show wins some awards in January.

The clear disappointment for Sony will be Horizon, but again, that could turn on its head of the show is a success.
 

tkscz

Member
The box of Portal does mention that the PS5 is sold seperately and that PS5 is required.

Then again, there are some dumb people out there.
If you're on any of Sony's social medias, look at how many people assume they can play it on a train or places where there is no wifi and compare it to Switch or Steam deck.

There are an unfortunately large amount of people who think this is stand a lone.
 

jm89

Member
I think it will be closer between ps5 and x series in december.

MS are doing some crazy sales, sony so far has had some sales but not to the level that MS has gone to.
 

Killjoy-NL

Member
If you're on any of Sony's social medias, look at how many people assume they can play it on a train or places where there is no wifi and compare it to Switch or Steam deck.

There are an unfortunately large amount of people who think this is stand a lone.
Yes, but when you read the box, it clearly states wifi is required.

Like I said, there are morons out there, but I don't think like 30% of buyers are that dumb.

Although I have to say, recent years have proven that the vast majority of people are braindead. So meh.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
I doubt it. They had crazier deals than PS5 last year as well (especially with the S) and still got manhandled. Also, remember Slim sales will be a thing for December too.
Like what? XSX didn't have anything remotely close to $349.99.

As I said in this thread, I am surprised that Xbox hasn't had any Gamepass discounts.
 

HeWhoWalks

Member
Like what? XSX didn't have anything remotely close to $349.99.

As I said in this thread, I am surprised that Xbox hasn't had any Gamepass discounts.
Places like Walmart, for example, were selling the S for just over $200. Maybe I'm crazy but I saw nothing even close to that for the PS5. And that was just one retailer.

Price has never been the issue and holiday deals/sales won't change that. If that proves wrong, great for Xbox, but any advantage is has the PS5 has its own (a slimmer system with Spider-Man 2 is nothing to mess with), negating any shift of share.
 
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Lupin25

Member
Sony is starting to experience a bit of that Nintendo result.

  • It was the biggest game for PlayStation 5 at launch
  • Sequel to a game that has sold 30+ million units across PS4/PS5/PC
  • Spider-Man 2 just came out and people want more Spider-Man
This game, God of War Ragnarok, Gran Turismo 7, and Spider-Man 2 will sell for the rest of the PS5 life cycle.

Ragnarok is still selling. Just imagine if they can make a successful tv show, but again, that is why Sony does remasters and remakes. They don't get a ton out of selling God of War 2018 for 20 dollars a pop. Ragnarok is 70 dollars and it is still charting... I could see a God of War 2018 remaster and a God of War 1 remake.

Something is giving Gran Turismo serious legs on PS5, whether that be VR, the game updates, the Gran Turismo movie, or all of the above.

Of games that are 40 dollars or more on the PS Store, Sony has 3 games in the top 24. The Last of Us Part 2 remaster pre-order is 31st and going for 50 dollars rather than 40 dollars. The remaster might also push sales of the Part 1 remake up as well, especially if the show wins some awards in January.

The clear disappointment for Sony will be Horizon, but again, that could turn on its head of the show is a success.

What about the numbers for Sony in:

Season 17 Abc GIF by The Bachelorette


That’s natural seeing Spider-Man 2 success, but still Incredible. Sony is eating these charts up with 1st party SP games.

I think Gran Turismo is having the added benefit now of just being the clear best choice as a pure driving simulator. I thought Motorsport would give it more competition, but you throw in VR2 & it’s a complete game changer.

Horizon falls behind in the spotlight compared to Spider-Man, TLOU & GoW. It’s clearly a tier below to consumers, but it will have its success over the gen knowing Guerilla is going all in on the universe (Horizon 3, Mobile, GaaS).

They’re tapping into the full strength of their IP through media (shows/movies) like the Across the Spiderverse/HBO’s TLOU/Gran Turismo/Twisted Metal (imagine too a successful game reboot, Jaffe would be in heaven).

Just genius fucking marketing going on over there at Sony.
 
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HeWhoWalks

Member
What about the numbers for Sony in:



That’s natural seeing Spider-Man 2 success, but still Incredible. Sony is eating these charts up with 1st party SP games.

I think Gran Turismo is having the added benefit now of just being the clear best choice as a pure driving simulator. I thought Motorsport would give it more competition, but you throw in VR2 & it’s a complete game changer.

Horizon falls behind in the spotlight compared to Spider-Man, TLOU & GoW. It’s clearly a tier below to consumers, but it will have its success over the gen knowing Guerilla is going all in on the universe (Horizon 3, Mobile, GaaS).

They’re tapping into the full strength of their IP through media (shows/movies) like the Across the Spiderverse/HBO’s TLOU/Gran Turismo/Twisted Metal (imagine too a successful game reboot, Jaffe would be in heaven).

Just genius fucking marketing going on over there at Sony.
Indeed. They know what they're doing and have generally been good about leveraging their properties.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Indeed. They know what they're doing and have generally been good about leveraging their properties.
No doubt the success of the Spiderman films played a huge role in making the games exclusive. It's no secret that Disney wanted complete control of Spiderman, but Sony was like "Naw"
 

Lupin25

Member
Indeed. They know what they're doing and have generally been good about leveraging their properties.

Looking at the past 2 years, they have the potential to dominate a large portion of entertainment for awhile.

To be this successful this fast with IP in other mediums also (TLOU/Uncharted/Twisted Metal/Spider-Man) is just insane. Sony puts the right people in charge of their products.
 
I still can't believe Hogwarts Legacy didn't get nominated for anything. People want this game to go away so bad....lol
I hope they make another one.

They have already announced a sequel is in development. The gaming "journalists" and their purple pals will have to spend a whole year pretending a 20+ million seller doesn't exist again in a few years. They did such a good job this year, so it should come naturally to them now
 
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Not surprised that Sony was down. Average person's purchasing power has plummeted (inflation may have slowed, but it has not reversed). And Sony just jacked up the cost of owning a PS5 by 20 bucks a year unless you have no interest in multiplayer, and PS+ essential games are generally trash. They've also done a shitty job at getting people excited for future games. They've still got the best lineup (IMO) and are my platform of choice. But it's not all roses.

Yeah, true, tho PS+ Essentials games aren't generally that bad. It's not XBL Games with Gold levels bad, and sometimes it's better than what Game Pass gets in a given month. They probably still need to do more to add value for that price jump though, for sure. The movie stuff is a good start, but ultimately it's got to be something game-related too.

I think the pandemic and the mechanical hard drive made it very difficult to maintain the PS4 as a platform, but PS5 as a platform is definitely going to be a thing.

I think we're going to see a different type of console market, especially if Microsoft isn't around to compete in it.

We're going to see diminished returns on graphics and we're going to see that the PS5 is far more scalable than the PS4 was.s

Sony can release a handheld PS5 towards the end of the decade and continue to sell games that are available on the main console. When you look at PC, we don't even really look at it in terms of generations.

If you think back Gameboy launched in 1989 and the Gameboy Advance launched in 2001... The Gameboy Color was essentially a mid-gen refresh, but the GameBoy platform ran for 12 years.

A handheld PS5 probably extends the PS5's life cycle by another 5 years. So anywhere between 10-15 years, maybe even longer. Who is to say that a PS5 handheld doesn't get its own mid-gen refresh.

PS6 would be the start of a new platform and as you said, could start off quite expensive. That's also why the PS5 Pro is really important. It needs to be able to stretch the life cycle out.

Well whatever Sony does with PS6, I just hope it also involves integrated VR. Vr is amazing technology but it's probably too price-prohibitive as an optional add-on experience for most people. What Sony are doing right now with the PS Portal, however, could be leveraged in a future VR headset with further improvements to the PS.Link and Remote Play technology, and just generally better wifi by the time PS6 comes to market.

They could potentially make a scalable range of VR headsets where the only costs are in the lenses and display, and any built-in audio functions. Literally all the processing could then be handled by the PS6 and streamed in through the headset. Hopefully by then they'll also allow a wireless option. The goal would be that they can make an entry-level headset cheap enough to bundle in with all systems without leading to a big jump in MSRP, but also making sure the PS6 itself delivers a suitable performance upgrade that can last the gen, over the PS5 & Pro.

The VR headset has to become as ubiquitous as the controller, and Sony are arguably in the best position to do it, so we'll see where things are within five years or so.

Sony is starting to experience a bit of that Nintendo result.

  • It was the biggest game for PlayStation 5 at launch
  • Sequel to a game that has sold 30+ million units across PS4/PS5/PC
  • Spider-Man 2 just came out and people want more Spider-Man
This game, God of War Ragnarok, Gran Turismo 7, and Spider-Man 2 will sell for the rest of the PS5 life cycle.

Ragnarok is still selling. Just imagine if they can make a successful tv show, but again, that is why Sony does remasters and remakes. They don't get a ton out of selling God of War 2018 for 20 dollars a pop. Ragnarok is 70 dollars and it is still charting... I could see a God of War 2018 remaster and a God of War 1 remake.

Something is giving Gran Turismo serious legs on PS5, whether that be VR, the game updates, the Gran Turismo movie, or all of the above.

Of games that are 40 dollars or more on the PS Store, Sony has 3 games in the top 24. The Last of Us Part 2 remaster pre-order is 31st and going for 50 dollars rather than 40 dollars. The remaster might also push sales of the Part 1 remake up as well, especially if the show wins some awards in January.

The clear disappointment for Sony will be Horizon, but again, that could turn on its head of the show is a success.

True, and FWIW Horizon is the youngest of all those franchises. So I think it's natural it's the softest sales-wise in relation to them, but with time and more software variety I think it'll have a lot of room to grow in its own right.

I think it will be closer between ps5 and x series in december.

MS are doing some crazy sales, sony so far has had some sales but not to the level that MS has gone to.

Price doesn't mean much if the value perception isn't there in other ways (software, services, brand appeal etc.).

Outside of maybe a somewhat lower price there is little to pull someone from a PS5 to a Series X. The services are largely the same, they share around 90% of the same software library, but the PS5 has more ecosystem-encompassing peripherals (PSVR2, Portal, DualSense Edge, Pulse headphones etc.) and exclusives you actually can't get anywhere else (Spiderman 2, GOW: Ragnarok, GT7 etc.). Xbox has less ecosystem options in ways that add to the ecosystem, and all of their games are also on PC.

If December numbers are disappointing hardware-wise, MS's last-ditch effort is to go bonkers with Game Pass & Xbox, and as many subscription perks with 1P software in the service as possible. The way things are tracking, 2024 is going to be the year that decides Xbox's fate as a video game console. If it doesn't manage to recover and grow, we're going to see a monumental shift in priorities for Xbox and gaming as a whole at Microsoft going forward.

But in a lot of ways maybe that would be for the best. I've mentioned some reasons why earlier in the thread. Console diehards would maybe have a hard time adjusting, however.
 
Now this is fucking depressing. Games like Alan Wake deserve much more, fuck this.
Not really? Epic and Remedy made the decision to make this game unavailable to normies, with no physical on consoles and no Steam. They went out of their way to not sell their game. Epic was willing to fund it (probably at a loss) to push their game store that literally no one wants, and Remedy accepted Epic's money. This is the result and it's very likely in line with their expectations. You want to blame someone, blame Epic and Remedy for deciding their game is to good for normies to have normal methods of buying.
 

Baki

Member
EDIT: Added estimates for November.

November estimations

PS5
- 1050k
XBS - 580k
NSW - 570k

Full Estimations for 2023

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-23430,000200,000280,000
Feb-23560,000240,000290,000
Mar-23660,000280,000340,000
Apr-23360,000180,000420,000
May-23270,000160,000450,000
Jun-23430,000240,000350,000
Jul-23270,000160,000240,000
Aug-23400,000210,000200,000
Sep-23490,000300,000200,000
Oct -23370,000200,000210,000
Nov - 231,050,000580,000570,000
YTD5,300,0002,750,0003,550,000
LTD17,200,00012,450,00042,960,000

Results for 2022 (NSW monthly numbers are Welfare's revised estimates but it's total is from NPD, PS5 and XBS monthly and total numbers are from NPD)

MonthPS5XBSNSW
Jan-22369,000307,000270,000
Feb-22128,000261,000410,000
Mar-22282,000489,000540,000
Apr-22234,000267,000365,000
May-22119,000177,000270,000
Jun-22277,000260,000385,000
Jul-22301,000147,000310,000
Aug-22341,000251,000295,000
Sep-22494,00288,000325,000
Oct-22456,000261,000250,000
Nov-221,328,000730,000920,000
Dec-221,331,000942,0001,490,000
Total5,660,0004,480,0005,830,000
LTD11,900,0009,700,00039,410,000
0DUsjdQ.png

* Estimates as of November 30, 2023.
Complete collapse in 2023 for Xbox BUT these aggressive deals might save the year. PS5 is not really outpacing the PS4 by a large margin. Sony underestimated the drop in demand in a post covid world. I think Sony will release a PS5 streaming box ($149 or $99) to capture the lower end market.

Yeah, true, tho PS+ Essentials games aren't generally that bad. It's not XBL Games with Gold levels bad, and sometimes it's better than what Game Pass gets in a given month. They probably still need to do more to add value for that price jump though, for sure. The movie stuff is a good start, but ultimately it's got to be something game-related too.



Well whatever Sony does with PS6, I just hope it also involves integrated VR. Vr is amazing technology but it's probably too price-prohibitive as an optional add-on experience for most people. What Sony are doing right now with the PS Portal, however, could be leveraged in a future VR headset with further improvements to the PS.Link and Remote Play technology, and just generally better wifi by the time PS6 comes to market.

They could potentially make a scalable range of VR headsets where the only costs are in the lenses and display, and any built-in audio functions. Literally all the processing could then be handled by the PS6 and streamed in through the headset. Hopefully by then they'll also allow a wireless option. The goal would be that they can make an entry-level headset cheap enough to bundle in with all systems without leading to a big jump in MSRP, but also making sure the PS6 itself delivers a suitable performance upgrade that can last the gen, over the PS5 & Pro.

The VR headset has to become as ubiquitous as the controller, and Sony are arguably in the best position to do it, so we'll see where things are within five years or so.



True, and FWIW Horizon is the youngest of all those franchises. So I think it's natural it's the softest sales-wise in relation to them, but with time and more software variety I think it'll have a lot of room to grow in its own right.



Price doesn't mean much if the value perception isn't there in other ways (software, services, brand appeal etc.).

Outside of maybe a somewhat lower price there is little to pull someone from a PS5 to a Series X. The services are largely the same, they share around 90% of the same software library, but the PS5 has more ecosystem-encompassing peripherals (PSVR2, Portal, DualSense Edge, Pulse headphones etc.) and exclusives you actually can't get anywhere else (Spiderman 2, GOW: Ragnarok, GT7 etc.). Xbox has less ecosystem options in ways that add to the ecosystem, and all of their games are also on PC.

If December numbers are disappointing hardware-wise, MS's last-ditch effort is to go bonkers with Game Pass & Xbox, and as many subscription perks with 1P software in the service as possible. The way things are tracking, 2024 is going to be the year that decides Xbox's fate as a video game console. If it doesn't manage to recover and grow, we're going to see a monumental shift in priorities for Xbox and gaming as a whole at Microsoft going forward.

But in a lot of ways maybe that would be for the best. I've mentioned some reasons why earlier in the thread. Console diehards would maybe have a hard time adjusting, however.

Outside of live service titles, I think Sony will re-evaluate their PC strategy. Most of their SP games flopped on Steam, that's on top of marketing a lower price ($60) than what's available on the consoles, and the majority of the increase in PC revenue in the others segment is basically just Destiny 2. Considering that PC is a competitor to PlayStation, and the success Nintendo has had with their strategy, I can see Sony dialing back the SP games from PC and keeping them exclusive to the PS platform. Especially with sales softening this quickly, in one of their major markets.
 
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Series S at $149 with Headset at Costco

IMG-6206.jpg
That price is great. Series S is a great console at that price, and I would think this price is super attractive to parents. They really need to be pushing Gamepass and all of the kid friendly games to buyers of this system though. My brother, best friend, and cousin all have the Series S for their kids and after I talked several of them into trying out Gamepass they all love it.
 
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