Nintendo likely to become "primary partner for third-party game publishers" over next gen, Switch 2 will sell 100 million by 2030 - DFC Intelligence

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LakeOf9

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Nintendo will likely be the "primary partner for third-party game publishers" on console in five years, an analyst firm has forecast, by which time Switch 2 will have hit 100m units sold.
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Looking to the future, DFC says Switch 2 will hit 100m sales by 2029 and be the leading console system at that time. Both Sony and Microsoft have expressed interest in launching their own handheld devices, and both companies are also widely expected to be prepping their own next home consoles to arrive from 2027 onwards. But Nintendo launching Switch 2 now means it will have several years of headstart on PS6 and the next Xbox.
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"DFC forecasts that by the end of 2029 the Switch 2 will have sold over 100m units making it the leading console system by a wide margin," the firm wrote. "The next few years could see Nintendo for the first time becoming the primary partner for third-party game publishers."
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Too bad that Sony won't have any competition. It could've been Nintendo if they were to become primary partner for third-party game publishers.🤷🏾‍♂️
 
This is a bad sign… Analysts always got their prediction wrong when it's about Nintendo. No Joking here… Wii U 2 incoming. BtW…

yPP6DZL.png
 
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Sony v Nintendo round 2 is sure gonna be interesting and fun to watch.

Each player has their own strengths and weaknesses and the two products are very different.

LordOcidax said:
This is a bad sign… Analysts always got their prediction wrong when it's about Nintendo. No Joking here… Wii U 2 incoming.
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I know you're joking but there is 0 chance of Wii U 2 happening lol.
 
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This is what the other plastic warriors fear. They did not divide Nintendo from 3rd parties and ascend to the throne; they only dropped the nuclear bomb on Godzilla, and it only made him stronger.
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LordOcidax said:
This is a bad sign… Analysts always got their prediction wrong when it's about Nintendo. No Joking here… Wii U 2 incoming.
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If it helps, analysts predicted Switch would be successful, with a minimum of 85-90 million units sold. It was just... everyone else who wasn't sold on it.
 
I didn't know DFC Intelligence was acquired by Hard-Drive.net and now make comedy articles. Here you have other good ones:

https://hard-drive.net/hd/video-games/trump-orders-feds-to-reopen-raccoon-city-police-department/

https://hard-drive.net/hd/video-gam...-martin-to-help-wrap-up-silksong-development/

Seiryu21 said:
So does Sony have competition or not? It's so confusing.
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Sony just posted all time records for revenue, profit and active userbase but hey, according to some they are doomed because of potatoes.
 
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I might be completely off, but I don't think the Switch 2 will sell anywhere near as much as the OG Switch. The price alone prevents it to happen. Being more lucrative is another thing, if Nintendo manage to keep piracy under control, they will print even more money.
 
Ev1L AuRoN said:
I might be completely off, but I don't think the Switch 2 will sell anywhere near as much as the OG Switch. The price alone prevents it to happen. Being more lucrative is another thing, if Nintendo manage to keep piracy under control, they will print even more money.
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The general expectation I have seen is not that the Switch 2 will sell as much as the Switch, but that it will sell ~100 million units. Which I thin is reasonable (and still represents a 33% contraction in user base)
 
Companies can't even take full advantage of PS5/XSX without breaking the bank because of diminishing return (more HR, more time, etc, etc. to get still a small jump) so Switch 2/XSS level of hardware (which is good enough for everything they've released this gen so far) is a good baseline imo.

That would probably change when devs finally embrace full path trace and virtualized geometry approaches, and other tools given this gen.
 
Kataploom said:
Companies can't even take full advantage of PS5/XSX without breaking the bank because of diminishing return (more HR, more time, etc, etc. to get still a small jump) so Switch 2/XSS level of hardware (which is good enough for everything they've released this gen so far) is a good baseline imo.

That would probably change when devs finally embrace full path trace and virtualized geometry approaches, and other tools given this gen.
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I feel like given modern dev cycles, those tools won't become part of the baseline spec until cross gen for PS5-PS6 has completely ended. By which point Nintendo will be preparing to launch a Switch 3.
 
LordOcidax said:
Analysts always got their prediction wrong when it's about Nintendo
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I don't know about the others but DFC intelligence definitly

www.dfcint.com

Can Nintendo Switch Pass the 100 Million Unit Mark?

The Nintendo Switch has been a strong success story in 2019. The September launch of the Nintendo Switch Lite doubles down on the portable element of the syst
www.dfcint.com www.dfcint.com

In the end, DFC forecasts that the Switch, including the Switch Lite, will fall just short of the 100 million mark.
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I think Switch was already pretty well supported by Japanese developers, but I can definitely envision more timed exclusives with more of an emphasis on making sure games are well optimized for the Switch 2.

In the west, I don't really know how much will change. I think the majority will prioritize PC/PS5 and if they can get it to work on the Switch 2, they will. Maybe I'll be more convinced when I can personally see how well games perform in real time.

100m would be highly optimistic for 4 years on the market.
 
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I'm not even sure a lot of Switch only Japanese devs are willing to ignore that massive OG switch install base to make the Switch 2 the baseline for a majority of stuff.
 
lughnasadh123 said:
tenor.gif

I'm not even sure a lot of Switch only Japanese devs are willing to ignore that massive OG switch install base to make the Switch 2 the baseline for a majority of stuff.
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That actually alludes back to my thread. Make it and release it on Switch, then offer all the bells and whistles on a $10 Switch 2 upgrade.
 
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lughnasadh123 said:
tenor.gif

I'm not even sure a lot of Switch only Japanese devs are willing to ignore that massive OG switch install base to make the Switch 2 the baseline for a majority of stuff.
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In Japan the worse enemy of the Switch 2 is going to be the Switch 1... That thing keeps selling 30K weekly.
 
bender said:
I know most people like to ignore it, but 3rd party support for the Switch was really strong.
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Yep, and Nintendo outright posted they have 15,000+ 3rd party games on the system.

But the vocal minority love to say crap like "It's only good for Nintendo games", and "No one plays 3rd party on Nintendo"...yet publishers are flocking to the system.
 
Neither company are interested in directly competing with each other. Nintendo will continue putting out a new console years after Playstation. This staggered release benefits both of them.
 
Gambit2483 said:
Yep, and Nintendo outright posted they have 15,000+ 3rd party games on the system.

But the vocal minority love to say crap like "It's only good for Nintendo games", and "No one plays 3rd party on Nintendo"...yet publishers are flocking to the system.
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That 15k is not a flex though. A big part of the switch's library is shovelware trash and just navigating through them on the store can be a chore. Sometimes less is more.
 
Deerock71 said:
That actually alludes back to my thread. Make it and release it on Switch, then offer all the bells and whistles on a $10 Switch 2 upgrade.
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Probably see that for a few years somewhat mirroring the PS4/5 situation until more people can make the switch over.
LordOcidax said:
In Japan the worse enemy of the Switch 2 is going to be the Switch 1... That thing keeps selling 30K weekly.
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Exactly, especially with the current price and tariff bullshit a lot more casuals will be fine waiting a bit before even trying to get a S2.
 
Skifi28 said:
That 15k is not a flex though. A big part of the switch's library is shovelware trash and just navigating through them on the store can be a chore. Sometimes less is more.
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You are talking about UX concerns, which are valid but irrelevant for this discussion. The 15k number represents the extent of third party investment in the platform, which obviously only happens when there are returns. If there were no returns (I.e. if sales were poor), third parties, even shovelware developers, would start dropping the console. That has not happened, in fact, MORE third parties have hopped on with every passing year.

Obviously third party software on the Switch sells.
 
lughnasadh123 said:
Exactly, especially with the current price and tariff bullshit a lot more casuals will be fine waiting a bit before even trying to get a S2.
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Yes, and Nintendo is more than happy to have that "problem", they have the absolute control of the Japanese market, they can keep selling the Switch 1 for years.
 
LakeOf9 said:
You are talking about UX concerns, which are valid but irrelevant for this discussion. The 15k number represents the extent of third party investment in the platform, which obviously only happens when there are returns. If there were no returns (I.e. if sales were poor), third parties, even shovelware developers, would start dropping the console. That has not happened, in fact, MORE third parties have hopped on with every passing year.

Obviously third party software on the Switch sells.
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Nintendo is in a great position with third parties, you can see the console splits in the Europe weekly games sales reports, games available on the 3 platforms, the Switch version outperforms the Xbox version every single time and sometimes the PS5 version. When the Switch 2 start receiving the big third parties games is going to be interesting.
 
The switch2 will have to pull off magic to run lategen current gen releases like gta6, if it even can let alone be the target platform for ps6 gen games. It will get alot of ports for current games out though.
 
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