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[markatisu]

Media narrative right now sucks for Obama

That is the point dude, why do you seem to get upset at that? Its going to be like this all the way till around October

The media wants it to be razor thin for ratings, but ratings won't translate to votes unless the economy completely tanks

 

[The Technomancer]

Mittens says all potential presidential candidates should have at least 3 years experience studying business:

http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/30/11961881-a-three-year-minimum?lite

My favorite part:

All presidential candidates should have at least three years studying engineering. Learn how to think through problems in a methodical way.

 

[Oblivion]

All presidential candidates should have at least three years studying engineering. Learn how to think through problems in a methodical way.

No, no, no, no, no.

That may seem like a good idea, but almost every libertarian I've ever met, in real life, or online, has some background in engineering. We need a subject that teaches people things like nuance, grey areas, externalities and such.

Also, I was in meetings all day, did I miss the left apologizing to Walker for saying his jobs numbers (verified by the BLS today) were lies?

1. Link?
2. Nope.

 

[The Technomancer]

No, no, no, no, no.

That may seem like a good idea, but almost every libertarian I've ever met, in real life, or online, has some background in engineering. We need a subject that teaches people things like nuance, grey areas, externalities and such.

Hm, I would characterize engineering as being all about the grey areas: its about recognizing when you have to do what you can with what you have to work with, abandoning your hardcore ideals about how things "should work" to recognize how they actually do work. Or, as I put it in my super fancy terms: the synthesis of objectives, parameters, and constraints.

If there are a lot of Libertarian Engineers that suggests to me that they're working on a different metric for social improvement then I am, which is disappointing.

 

[Oblivion]

Hm, I would characterize engineering as being all about the grey areas: its about recognizing when you have to do what you can with what you have to work with, abandoning your hardcore ideals about how things "should work" to recognize how they actually do work. Or, as I put it in my super fancy terms: the synthesis of objectives, parameters, and constraints.

If there are a lot of Libertarian Engineers that suggests to me that they're working on a different metric for social improvement then I am, which is disappointing.

Yeah, I didn't mean to brush engineers with a broad stroke like that, just that my experience with them gave me that impression.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

No, no, no, no, no.

That may seem like a good idea, but almost every libertarian I've ever met, in real life, or online, has some background in engineering. We need a subject that teaches people things like nuance, grey areas, externalities and such.

I don't remember who conducted the study, but engineering and economics are two of the professions whose constituents tend to be conservative. I'll find the study when I get home.

 

[The Technomancer]

Yeah, I didn't mean to brush engineers with a broad stroke like that, just that my experience with them gave me that impression.

Yeah, I wasn't offended or anything, don't worry

 

[Oblivion]

Yeah, I wasn't offended or anything, don't worry

*brofist



In other news, what do you guys think, does my little cutie pie, Soledad have a point, or is she reading too much into Romney's statement:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/soledad-...possible-birther-undertones-in-romney-speech/

 

[Aaron Strife]

RNC already crying over voter fraud in Wisconsin

Madison -- The chairman of the Republican National Committee said Wednesday GOP candidates have to perform 1 or 2 percentage points better than they otherwise would to overcome voter fraud -- claiming that voter fraud is far more pervasive than what official reports have shown.

About 2.1 million votes were cast in the 2010 race for governor, and 1 to 2 percent would equate to 21,000 to 42,000 votes. Some law enforcement officials have raised concerns about isolated incidents of voter fraud, but never suggested it approached a scale like that.

“I’m always concerned about voter fraud, you know, being from Kenosha, and quite frankly having lived through seeing some of it happen,” said Reince Priebus, the RNC chairman and former state Republican Party chairman. “Certainly in Milwaukee we have seen some of it and I think it’s been documented. Any notion that’s not the case, it certainly is in Wisconsin. I’m always concerned about it which is why I think we need to do a point or two better than where we think we need to be to overcome it.”

Richard Saks, an attorney who has successfully challenged Wisconsin’s new voter ID law, said Priebus can’t back up that claim.

“They have zero, zero evidence to substantiate it,” Saks said. “It’s simply demagoguery to whip up fear.”

He noted that a 2008 investigation in Milwaukee County by Democratic District Attorney John Chisholm and Republican Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen resulted in 20 prosecutions, mostly for voting by felons who were not qualified to vote.

“The notion there’s any kind of large scale fraud is simply not borne out by the facts,” Saks said. “It’s a scare tactic that’s used … to try to claim that primarily vulnerable people shouldn’t have a full opportunity to vote.”

Guess that means they're losing.

There were actually two polls of the recall race today, one from a Dem group that had it tied 49-49 (with Barrett leading with independents, something that's been noted in public polls), and a Marquette University poll showing Walker ahead by 7.

Of course, in the Marquette poll, 18-29 year olds made up only 2% of the sample, when they were 17% of the 2010 electorate, so I call shenanigans - as well as Independents being more excited to turn out than Democrats, which goes against just about any conventional wisdom.

Walker probably has a small lead but Barrett can win it if Democrats get out the vote, and it looks like everyone's all in on that, including the Big Dog himself.

 

[Chumly]

RNC already crying over voter fraud in Wisconsin


Guess that means they're losing.

There were actually two polls of the recall race today, one from a Dem group that had it tied 49-49 (with Barrett leading with independents, something that's been noted in public polls), and a Marquette University poll showing Walker ahead by 7.

Of course, in the Marquette poll, 18-29 year olds made up only 2% of the sample, when they were 17% of the 2010 electorate, so I call shenanigans - as well as Independents being more excited to turn out than Democrats, which goes against just about any conventional wisdom.

Walker probably has a small lead but Barrett can win it if Democrats get out the vote, and it looks like everyone's all in on that, including the Big Dog himself.

Why in gods name is it the poor democrats that are the dirty cheaters? Wouldn't you think that naturally rich republicans would have more resources to pull off massive wide scale voter fraud? I mean the thought of poor black people that are somehow all in this massive conspiracy to rig the vote is beyond laughable.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Why in gods name is it the poor democrats that are the dirty cheaters? Wouldn't you think that naturally rich republicans would have more resources to pull off massive wide scale voter fraud? I mean the thought of poor black people that are somehow all in this massive conspiracy to rig the vote is beyond laughable.

Don't you know? All Democrats are filthy stinking rich, because they all leech off of government welfare, which pays them 500 million dollars a week.

Also union thugs etc.

 

[Oblivion]

http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6776063/november-is-coming

:lol

 

[eznark]

Only vaguely remember this, but didn't he cherrypick methodologies to get the numbers he wanted? Cardinal sin of statistics, and close enough to lies as makes no nevermind.

No, he just reported the actual numbers that the state reports to the Feds for unemployment funding. It's an actual total count that is audited. Generally states let the BLS release that number but Walker (understandably and totally politically) decided to release them himself, which the BLS was perfectly ok with.

The number that is widely reported (the monthly jobs numbers) are a survey of 3-7% of businesses while the BLS numbers is a 100% audited number.

Of course, in the Marquette poll, 18-29 year olds made up only 2% of the sample, when they were 17% of the 2010 electorate, so I call shenanigans - as well as Independents being more excited to turn out than Democrats, which goes against just about any conventional wisdom.

That same poll had Obama winning by ten. Damn Republican poll riggers!

 

[PhoenixDark]

I do find it odd that the only polls showing a tight race are being leaked by democrats. Walker will win by 3-5 points, liberals will cry voter fraud and blame the national party for not supporting poor old Barrett.

 

[eznark]

Also from "internal polls" or little known pollsters who are releasing one-offs.

I do find it odd that the only polls showing a tight race are being leaked by democrats. Walker will win by 3-5 points, liberals will cry voter fraud and blame the national party for not supporting poor old Barrett.

We need voter id!

In-trade has Walker at 96.6% last I checked.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Also from "internal polls" or little known pollsters who are releasing one-offs.

Aggregate polling is closer when internals are included than when they're not.

Right now Walker has less than a point on Barrett on TPM's polltracker.

 

[eznark]

Aggregate polling is closer when internals are included than when they're not.

Right now Walker has less than a point on Barrett on TPM's polltracker.

I'm shocked that TPM is pretending this race is close. (Well, closer than 5 points. Barrett hasn't been within 5 in any poll in over a month)

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm shocked that TPM is pretending this race is close. (Well, closer than 5 points. Barrett hasn't been within 5 in any poll in over a month)

The media likes a close election. That's why they pretend Obama vs. Romney is close.

Though I think WI-GOV will be decided by less than a point. Barrett's campaign has been picking up steam.

There's also the story of Walker admitting (accidentally?) that he's a target in the John Doe probe, which is almost undoubtedly going to be the subject of new Barrett ads and the debate tomorrow.

There are a lot of moderates who oppose recalls on principle, but if there's criminal allegations going around, that might change the game.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Romney Rebounds Among Women

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds a sharp advance among women "has boosted Mitt Romney to his highest favorability rating of the presidential campaign - albeit still an unusually weak one - while President Obama's personal popularity has slipped."

"Obama still beats Romney in favorable ratings overall, by an 11-point margin, 52% vs. 41%. But that's down from 21 points last month... All Romney's gains have come among women -- up by 13 percentage points in personal popularity from last month, while Obama's lost 7 points among women. (Views among men have been more stable.) Obama's rating among women, 51% favorable, still beats Romney's 40% -- but again that margin is far smaller than what it was six weeks ago."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/30/romney_rebounds_among_women.html

This will only continue with the primary season over, and the media re-introducing the "new" candidate to the public again. And as Romney moves further to the center and the economy continues to stagnate, Obama's lead will continue to evaporate.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6776063/november-is-coming

:lol

Haha, nice. The part about the Iowa Caucus got me. I spent too much time trying to explain it to my friends, only to have them laugh because it sounds like "cock."

 

[GhaleonEB]

DOOM

 

[SomeDude]

Is there any presidential candidate talking about repealing rode vs wade?

 

[Oblivion]

Is there any presidential candidate talking about repealing rode vs wade?

i can think of a few

 

[cartoon_soldier]

DOOM

Check & Mate man

 

[Diablos]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/30/romney_rebounds_among_women.html

This will only continue with the primary season over, and the media re-introducing the "new" candidate to the public again. And as Romney moves further to the center and the economy continues to stagnate, Obama's lead will continue to evaporate.

Also: the GOP will have to stop attacking women for at least three months.

(LOL)

Otherwise his rebound gets erased... again.

And we can expect the lead to continue to tighten but not evaporate . The GOP is now focused on one candidate and thus more people start to tune in after that clownfest that was the primary. Herpy McDerpy.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Lead Politico Story of the day:
GOP whines that papers vetting Romney than Obama (in 2012)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76898.html

And I don't even think the papers are doing a good job vetting Romney, or more so, his claims that he keeps making.

All this because NY Times had a FP story on Ann Romney's horse love

 

[GaimeGuy]

Lead Politico Story of the day:
GOP whines that papers vetting Romney than Obama (in 2012)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76898.html

And I don't even think the papers are doing a good job vetting Romney, or more so, his claims that he keeps making.

All this because NY Times had a FP story on Ann Romney's horse love

"HELP WE'RE BEING PERSECUTED"

 

[Kosmo]

Lead Politico Story of the day:
GOP whines that papers vetting Romney than Obama (in 2012)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76898.html

And I don't even think the papers are doing a good job vetting Romney, or more so, his claims that he keeps making.

All this because NY Times had a FP story on Ann Romney's horse love

You gotta love a paper that has no shame dedicating the front page to "GASP! Ann Romney has lots of money and likes to ride horses!"

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt - I'm sure they had some hard hitting pieces on Michelle Obama's trip to Spain as "a private citizen."

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

I do find it odd that the only polls showing a tight race are being leaked by democrats. Walker will win by 3-5 points, liberals will cry voter fraud and blame the national party for not supporting poor old Barrett.

Oh my god... what happens next?!?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

You gotta love a paper that has no shame dedicating the front page to "GASP! Ann Romney has lots of money and likes to ride horses!"

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt - I'm sure they had some hard hitting pieces on Michelle Obama's trip to Spain as "a private citizen."

I think you missed the point of the post. It wasn't as much about NYT as it was about Politico.\

Interesting Gallup tidbit

Larry Sabato: "Over the past eight elections, Gallup -- the most recognizable of polling organizations -- has only identified the eventual popular vote winner twice in its early June horse race polling.

 

[eznark]

The media likes a close election. That's why they pretend Obama vs. Romney is close.

Though I think WI-GOV will be decided by less than a point. Barrett's campaign has been picking up steam.

There's also the story of Walker admitting (accidentally?) that he's a target in the John Doe probe, which is almost undoubtedly going to be the subject of new Barrett ads and the debate tomorrow.

There are a lot of moderates who oppose recalls on principle, but if there's criminal allegations going around, that might change the game.

God I hope so. A recount in this election would be the greatest thing in the world.

 

[planar1280]

Adp: 133,000 pvt sector jobs added in may



Good or bad

 

[eBay Huckster]

Adp: 133,000 pvt sector jobs added in may



Good or bad

Decent (as long as it's close to the BLS figure, otherwise cue PD doomslinging).

 

[eznark]

Adp: 133,000 pvt sector jobs added in may



Good or bad

It's weak to very weak. The target number was 150-160k.

I don't think it's "doom" but combined with the slow growth, April's jobs numbers, inventory numbers, corporate profits, consumer spending, etc. Summer does not look like a lot of fun.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Adp: 133,000 pvt sector jobs added in may



Good or bad

Tomorrow's numbers are the real important ones. There have been a lot of discrepancies between ADP and BLS numbers before.

Also, important to see what revisions BLS does to previous months report.

My expectation is around 150k jobs for BLS with upward revision for last months +10-15k.

 

[RustyNails]

According to new NBC/Marist Poll, Obama statistically tied in Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. Holds slight advantage over independent voters and women, lags in white male vote all around.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Jobless claims rose 10k which is worrying, although 4 week average is still 10k lower than April.

Continuing claims are down 36k.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Adp: 133,000 pvt sector jobs added in may



Good or bad

Bad news. Slow, stagnated growth for another Obama summer. And we'll likely continue getting these weak reports and see people leave the work force. Notice how Obama's numbers are crumbling each month? This is why

Of course, I can't wait for democrats to instead focus on MA's job growth under Romney; because nothing says "bad economy" quite like 4% unemployment right

 

[Particle Physicist]

I do find it odd that the only polls showing a tight race are being leaked by democrats. Walker will win by 3-5 points, liberals will cry voter fraud and blame the national party for not supporting poor old Barrett.

You sure? So far, I have only seen pre-emptive voter fraud calls by Republicans... just in case.

 

[PhoenixDark]

According to new NBC/Marist Poll, Obama statistically tied in Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. Holds slight advantage over independent voters and women, lags in white male vote all around.

If that west firewall collapses you might as well hand it to Romney now. Nevada's economy is horrible and Colorado is becoming an evangelical haven.

 

[Black Republican]

was bored and looking through past electoral maps, didnt know the last republican to win the white house but lose florida was calvin coolidge in 1924, wow.


so uh yeah romney really needs that state. unless he breaks the curse.

 

[codhand]

If

.

 

[Kosmo]

I think you missed the point of the post. It wasn't as much about NYT as it was about Politico.\

Interesting Gallup tidbit

But that's my point - it SHOULD be about the NYT.

You sure? So far, I have only seen pre-emptive voter fraud calls by Republicans... just in case.

You are correct - liberals only cry pre-emptive disenfranchisement.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

But that's my point - it SHOULD be about the NYT.

An article on bias against Romney by the media favoring without even mentioning Fox News and their amazing 4 minute ad against Obama that they aired on TV yesterday during their self described "News" segments?

 

[Kosmo]

An article on bias against Romney by the media favoring without even mentioning Fox News and their amazing 4 minute ad against Obama that they aired on TV yesterday during their self described "News" segments?

As opposed to MSNBC's 4-hour Obama campaign rally from 7-11pm every night?

 

[el retorno]

As opposed to MSNBC's 4-hour Obama campaign rally from 7-11pm every night?

Did you see the Fox and Friends video?

 

[GaimeGuy]

According to new NBC/Marist Poll, Obama statistically tied in Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. Holds slight advantage over independent voters and women, lags in white male vote all around.

"statistically tied." is such BS.

All it means is that the leader doesn't hae a wide enough margin for the results to have a confidence interval of 90% (or whatever value they're using).

If Obama comes out ahead in a poll but within the margin of error, it still means you can say with SOME degree of confidence (maybe 55%, maybe 70%) that he's going to win. Just not a high enough degree of confidence (and how "high" is high enough is arbitrary)

Say the margin of error is +/- 3%, and obama is at 52% in the poll.
Well, that means they're pretty confident Obama's vote lies somewhere in the range of 49-55. Romney is at 48%, and they're pretty confident his vote is somewhere between 45-51%



49-55% vs 45-51%

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Heh, did you guys see Mike Bost's rant?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=h19FZtDprd0#!

 

[Kosmo]

Did you see the Fox and Friends video?

No, because I don't make any arguments that Fox is not a pro-Republican channel - it is, just as MSNBC is balls deep on the Obama schlong.

On another note, Elizabeth Warren keeps digging that hole deeper.

Heh, did you guys see Mike Bost's rant?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=h19FZtDprd0#!

He's right. Crazy, but right.

 

[The Librarian]

No, because I don't make any arguments that Fox is not a pro-Republican channel - it is, just as MSNBC is balls deep on the Obama schlong.

On another note, Elizabeth Warren keeps digging that hole deeper.

A hole that nobody gives a shit about? Okay.