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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Actually wait a tick, do you mean Nate Silver?

(Because both Silver and Drudge being wrong simultaneously would indicate a Barrett win, given the former's post yesterday.)
 
Big surprise, the people conducting the exit polling says Drudge's numbers are junk and the race is much closer.

Exit polls saying more Democrats than Republicans... Hope PPP is right about independents going for Barrett.
 
Romney: I will sell GM Stock
(CNN) - In an interview published Tuesday, Mitt Romney said as president he would sell the government's share of GM stock, even if that means cutting a loss.

The presumptive GOP presidential nominee accused the president of delaying the sale of the shares as part of a political ploy to avoid a taxpayer loss before Election Day in November.

The government has owned 26% of GM stake (500 million shares) since it bailed out the company with nearly $50 billion in 2009. At just over $21 per share price on Tuesday, the amount falls well below the $51 per share price necessary for taxpayers to break even on the investment.

However, if the government waits longer to sell its shares, taxpayers would lose even more money in the event that GM stock sinks further.

But Romney said it was time to let the shares go, a call to action Romney first made in a February op-ed–also in the Detroit News–in which he urged the Obama administration to sell the shares "in a responsible fashion."

Best CNN comment:
Sniffit

Fun with translation: "Gee, I sure hope I can create enough pressure to force Obama to sell that stock and realize a loss, so I can then yell and scream about the amount of money the Amurikan peeplez lost on the GM investment. Oh well, even if he doesn't, hoppefully GM will tank and I can blame him for that. If it goes up in value, I'll just call it luck and say it was only because I, Deputy Doublethink, blabbered about the imaginary free market."

Guess what? The reason not to sell is because you would realize a loss. Hold it and wait for it to grow in value and sell high....or at least close to even. Reports predict growth. It's quite simple.
 

eznark

Banned
According to right wing firebrand on radio Fox exit poll had it close, ABC is at 2% for Walker and one other network has it at 5%
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
How so, given those are government operated entities funded via taxation?

Didn't Kennedy or Roberts or somebody specifically say during the hearings that if a single payer system had been implemented instead of a system in which people are required to buy products from private companies, there'd be no issue?

Though striking down the mandate would pose problems for the Republican plan to privatize Social Security.


The first and second congresses compelled sea workers to be provided health insurance, and also for all men in the country to arm themselves with munitions and firearms.

There has not been a court ban on congress achieving regulatory goals through taxation (and that IS what the fine is) since Bailey vs Drexel Furniture in 1922, which invalidated a 10% tax on the annual profits of companies which knowingly employed child labor. But the only reason the court ruled that way is because the court viewed the law as an attempt by congress to circumvent the court overturn of another child-labor-related law from a year or so earlier.

The court even upheld a regulatory tax designed to completely eliminate bookmaking operations in 1953, and a tax that compelled states to create unemployment benefits systems for their residents in 1937.


The mandate is essentially a regulatory excise, which congress is given power in article 1, section 8


No part of the constitution makes a distinction between congress's regulatory authority over private or public commerce. Furthermore, the companies which provide health insurance are all government-created corporations, chartered by the state governments. Though the concept of a corporation did not exist when the constitution was written, the idea that the government can regulate activity between persons within its jurisdiction ha been a prevailing idea for millenia, and the same concept applies to non-personal entities.


Whether they're fining you for not purchasing private insurance or taxing you for a government-run health insurance program that you 1. Are not allowed to use until a certain age. 2. May never be allowed to use in your lifetime and/or 3. Are not required to use when you are permitted to, they are regulatory measures by congress over the territories it holds jurisdiction.

I am referring to medicare and medicaid, in case you didn't notice. The same concept applies to social security.


If the court rules that the government can not impose a health insurance mandate, it will be a huge case of judicial activism that will limit congress's ability to regulate society in any significanat manner. You are ALWAYS using health care in some shape or form, through no conscious decision of your own. It is one of the things that comes with civilization. Sanitation of property and food, noise/air pollution, the various insecticides and filters in the air you breathe and on the Earth you stand on, pest control, travel restrictions on persons with certain diseases from entering the country...
These are not things that can be classified as activities that you, as a person residing within the US, partake in. some of them are not even activities at all. But they are all structural components of our health care that we naturally think of as a government being able to provide, even if they are not things we can consciously choose to partake or refrain from partaking in (like breathing, or contracting a disease through our environment rather than our own actions or someone else's actions, or having someone with tuberculosis fly into our country).

Is the structure of our society, from how labor interacts with the economy, to any of the conditions relating to the life or quality of living of a person, persons, or people in general, off-limits to government?

I am not saying that the health mandate directly maps to medicare and social security, because it doesn't. Those are funded through payroll taxes, taxes on value derived from labor, which we as a society decide to be the means through which people acquire resources that can be used to better themselves. We set up our society to be structured on labor, despite a life of convenience and leisure for all being within our scientific capabilities.

Congress can regulate an operation or practice out of existence and continue to regulate that activity's non-existence from coming to exist again. It can impose excises. Why wouldn't it be able to regulate being uninsured out of existence?

If it can't, it'll be a "Because it can't" ruling, a general "Government can't compel people to purchase a good or service through regulatory measures" ruling. And that kind of ruling can ban pretty much anything, from setting aside funds for retirement at an arbitrary age (social security) to making mail boxes that can only be used by a government-run mail carrier (post boxes) to providing funds forhealth insurance for senior citizens (medicare).

Conservatives always complain about "judicial activism" and how the courts apply the commerce and necessary and proper clasues to empower the government to do anything it wants.

This would be judicial activism that fabricates some kind of private/public/governmental/personal/communal constitutional concept that can be used to empower the courts from banning the government from doing anything. Judicial activism in the opposite direction.

The notion of using the constitution as a "weapon" through which an ideology about society is empowered seems to be a uniquely American concept. Perhaps it's because so many other countries have gone through so many rebellions and complete constitutional and social upheaval over the centuries (or even just last few decades) that they realize just how little power things like "laws" and "constitutions" hold as opposed to the people who actually create, destroy, enforce, ignore, respect, obey, and disobey them, and give them meaning, but nowhere else in the world is the concept of being masters of our own destiny so utterly foreign as it is in America. Instead, we rely on the "constitution" for guidance like devout religious followers do their books of worship.

We have power over governments and determine how it has power over us. The constitution is a fucking document. An important document, but a document nonetheless. And even if conservatives think activist judges could allow a V for vendetta nanny state, the people still ultimately have the natural capability and responsibility to create such a society. It won't just pop into existence. People would have to make it happen. And even if people made it happen, people would be able to overthrow it, too, even if the government fought against that happening. Society is not equal to government.

Judicial activism in the otheer direction basically fights this concept. It establishes some axiom that the concept of the State is, itself, some Hobbesian State of Nature where there is a natural order to all things which we must always restrict ourselves to.

I'm not really putting my thoughts into writing properly I feel, but I guess what I mean is something like....

We can do things. We can say we can't do things.

Naturally we are allowed to say whether we can do things or whether we can't do things, and to choose, or choose not, to respect those established boundaries. Reading what I just wrote, I'd say that's a pretty good definition of free will. Conservatives are afraid of the "not choosing to respect the establsihed boundaries" part when they speak of judicial activism. But the established boundaries change with the times. Segregation has been both constitutional and unconstitutional without any alterations to the relevant sections of the constitution. The conservative fear of judicial activism stems from the notion that the boundaries moved


But if the boundaries don't, no, can't move... to say we are forbidden from saying we can do things or saying we can't do things, well, that's ultimately destructive to any social contract or progressive movement (And I don't mean that in the poltiical sense, but in the literal sense.). And that's what the flip side is.
 
GaimeGuy I hate to reduce that entire post to one little snippet, but

The notion of using the constitution as a "weapon" through which an ideology about society is empowered seems to be a uniquely American concept. Perhaps it's because so many other countries have gone through so many rebellions and complete constitutional and social upheaval over the centuries (or even just last few decades) that they realize just how little power things like "laws" and "constitutions" hold as opposed to the people who actually create, destroy, enforce, ignore, respect, obey, and disobey them, and give them meaning, but nowhere else in the world is the concept of being masters of our own destiny so utterly foreign as it is in America. Instead, we rely on the "constitution" for guidance like devout religious followers do their books of worship.

We have power over governments and determine how it has power over us. The constitution is a fucking document. An important document, but a document nonetheless. And even if conservatives think activist judges could allow a V for vendetta nanny state, the people still ultimately have the natural capability and responsibility to create such a society. It won't just pop into existence. People would have to make it happen. And even if people made it happen, people would be able to overthrow it, too

This is quite possibly my favorite thing I've ever seen anyone post, or read/heard them say, about American politics in my entire lifetime. (It probably helps that studying how other Western democracies function for the past several years has made me question why we, as a nation, seem to worship an All-Powerful God-Constitution.)
 
Romney: I will sell GM Stock

(CNN) - In an interview published Tuesday, Mitt Romney said as president he would sell the government's share of GM stock, even if that means cutting a loss.

The presumptive GOP presidential nominee accused the president of delaying the sale of the shares as part of a political ploy to avoid a taxpayer loss before Election Day in November.

The government has owned 26% of GM stake (500 million shares) since it bailed out the company with nearly $50 billion in 2009. At just over $21 per share price on Tuesday, the amount falls well below the $51 per share price necessary for taxpayers to break even on the investment.

However, if the government waits longer to sell its shares, taxpayers would lose even more money in the event that GM stock sinks further.

But Romney said it was time to let the shares go, a call to action Romney first made in a February op-ed–also in the Detroit News–in which he urged the Obama administration to sell the shares "in a responsible fashion."

Ha. Romney thinks the government can lose money. What an idiot.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
In California today I successfully fought the urge to vote for Orly Taitz in the Senate primary.

Almost LOL'd in the voting booth when I saw her name.
 

RDreamer

Member
My wife's telling me she's getting reports of quite a few students unable to vote in the recall in Wisconsin today. Because of the new voting laws you have to have residency in a district for 28 days before you can register there. So, college students who have just gone home will possibly have to make the trek back to their college to vote instead of being able to register again at their homes. So a student from northern Wisconsin that goes to school at Madison hours away? Yep, they'll have to make that long drive just to vote. That sucks.
 
Or exit polls just over sampled union members.

Speaking of which
One figure in the early exit poll data could indicate a pitfall for Republican Gov. Scott Walker in the Wisconsin recall, with the voting public approving in principle of unions for government employees.

CBS News reports that 52 percent of voters had a favorable view of public unions, compared with 43 percent who had an unfavorable view. Fifty percent said they approved of recent changes to state law on collective bargaining for most government workers, compared with 48 percent who disapproved.

Making the analysis more difficult, the actual changes that Walker enacted, the catalyst for the recall itself, had two separate parts — one involving employee contributions to their benefit packages, and a wholesale roll-back of collective bargaining and union certification.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/exit-poll-recall-voters-favor-public-employee-unions

52% approval of unions seems rather low for a rustbelt state. I realize the difference here is the focus on public unions, but still
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Wtf Romney, how did u get my address and think i am a prominent republican let alone an

American

e19uw.jpg

Wow, that letter reads like a bad caricature.
 

Qazaq

Banned
Holy crap.

The electorate per exit poll voted for Obama by +12.

PPP said that's what would be needed for Barrett to pull off an upset.
 
^ DAGGER



What did you do to get thread privileges revoked?

I was out all day dealing with business/childcare issues. no time. I *could* put one together now, but i don't think I'd really do it justice. too much to catch up on.

Holy crap.

The electorate per exit poll voted for Obama by +12.

PPP said that's what would be needed for Barrett to pull off an upset.

really? where are you seeing this
 

Drakeon

Member
I'm honestly surprised Wisconsin is so close after all the doom and gloom that people had been talking before today. Especially after I saw Nate Silver's tweet last night, I figured Walker would have an easy win.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I'm honestly surprised Wisconsin is so close after all the doom and gloom that people had been talking before today. Especially after I saw Nate Silver's tweet last night, I figured Walker would have an easy win.

My mother thinks steadfastly that he's going to get recalled, she says that anti-Walker even from people who initially supported him is pretty thick in Kenosha, which is one of the largest population centers in the state.
 
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