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[Tim-E]

I think she realized there's no possibility of her ever being taken seriously as an elected official outside of her passionate group of social conservatives, so she's going to do the talking head thing because while doing that she doesn't have to try to appeal to anyone outside of her base. With this path, she's got a ticket to ride on the gravy train for the rest of her life.

 

[RustyNails]

This Santorum success is really so far from conventional wisdom, it's crazy. 99/100 prognosticators would have said he would suffer the same kind of fate Pawlenty or Bachmann did. But, here he is, looking like the defacto choice for social conservatives all the way until the convention.

You have to think someone like Palin is now kicking themselves for not running. She probably would not have won, but she could have greatly increased her power base in the party. Maybe she just doesn't care about that and would rather be a talking head, making 7 figures a year.

30 debates probably made her a sad caribou. I can't think of anything else that prevented her.

 

[Mike M]

A dramatic interpretation of the events of last night

 

[ToxicAdam]

30 debates probably made her a sad caribou. I can't think of anything else that prevented her.

Yea, that and the white-hot glare of the media looking into all her shit again. That can't be a pleasant experience for anyone.

 

[Miletius]

It doesn't matter. Santorum is not the threat. The three races last night don't matter. Romney has to defend against Newt in the Super Tuesday states, that's why Santorum was able to win these three, because they're not important to Romney or Newt.

Santorum also just lacks the capacity to campaign in a Super Tuesday scenario, where there's so many states at stake at the same time.

This is still a Romney/Gingrich race.

I disagree, only because the conventional voting blocks that favor Santorum rely heavily on word of mouth and to some extent the internet and other social forces (like talk radio) to rally votes. They are less apt to rely on conventional media and more likely to respond to calls from their patriarchs to vote for him.

Of course there are a million reasons why Santorum could stumble and fall, the biggest among them is his lack of funding. But he's got the right mix of voters in tune with his message to make himself a threat until the convention.

 

[RustyNails]

Of course there are a million reasons why Santorum could stumble and fall, the biggest among them is his lack of funding. But he's got the right mix of voters in tune with his message to make himself a threat until the convention.

Not anymore. He got a huuuuge fundraiser off his surge last night.

"We're doing very, very well raising money," Santorum said on CNN's "Starting Point with Soledad O'Brien." "I think last night we raised a quarter of a million dollars online. So we're doing really well and we feel like going forward we're going to have the money we need to make the case we want to make."

Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

He said his campaign, whose cash intake has lagged behind that of his rivals, just experienced the "best two weeks that we've had of the campaign, fundraising-wise."

He also has big cum bombs incoming as well.

Michigan should be incredibly interesting. Yeah yeah Mitt was born there and his daddy was the governor. But MI has a big evangelical flavor to it:

Michigan has a significant population of evangelical voters, and the proportional allocation could help second, third, or fourth-place finishing candidates stack up the 1144 delegates to win the nomination. Mitt Romney was born in Michigan and his father was the state's governor.

 

[Arrowgigantic]

Sarah Palin has positioned herself as a 3rd party candidate and is waiting until there's a winner to declare. Her best-case scenario is that Romney wins.

1) Less work she has to do.
2) No chance of embarrassing primary election losses.
3) Romney primary brawling makes more fodder for her ghostwriter to write about.

Romney wins, she publishes her book, announces her run, uses campaign donations to buy her book, straight transfer of wealth to her personal bank account. She gets to be the first 3rd party candidate to finish in 2nd place.

 

[Evlar]

The ironic point is, Romney may have been too effective in carpet-bombing Newt in Florida and the national press. He's benefited, to now, from the fact that opposition to him is divided between three candidates; the fringe Paul (whose core voters aren't going to swing to anyone else) plus Newt and Santorum, whose core may be more "fungible". Even in Florida Romney did not win a majority of the votes; he managed a plurality.

The anti-Romney vote- and more important, the anti-Romney money- has been wavering between Newt and Santorum to now. If Romney has finally put a stake through the heart of Newt then he may just empower Santorum to mount a real threat, as the dissident voters and money settle on him as their champion.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Sarah Palin has positioned herself as a 3rd party candidate and is waiting until there's a winner to declare. Her best-case scenario is that Romney wins.

I do think she may need to boost her profile at some point, as her constantly threatened presidential run didn't seem to do it. Maybe that's the ticket, but I don't think she has it in her for even a faux campaign when she's making mint without one.

 

[Byakuya769]

Piggy-backing off of Evlar, what's more problematic for Romney is that Santorum is likable to the base. Newt is not particularly likable to anyone.

 

[The Librarian]

I has a question.

If Romney's experience at Bain capital has given him the knowledge to create jobs for the country, why didn't he employ that knowledge to a greater effect while he was governor of Massachusetts? The state was ranked 47th in job creation.

 

[Arrowgigantic]

I don't think she has it in her for even a faux campaign when she's making mint without one.

You know what's better than a mint?

 

[Tim-E]

I has a question.

If Romney's experience at Bain capital has given him the knowledge to create jobs for the country, why didn't he employ that knowledge to a greater effect while he was governor of Massachusetts? The state was ranked 47th in job creation.

You forget that the actual definition of the term "job creator" as it's used by modern republicans isn't "one who creates jobs," but "one who is rich."

 

[speculawyer]

Romney suggested many things that were eventually used in the actual bankruptcy/bailout. He just didn't want people getting handouts for bad behavior/management. He wanted to let labor contracts be dissolved and the companies be freed from crazy and untenable pensions, healthcare costs, and wages that far and away exceed anything in any similar manufacturing segment. The way the government did it is working for now, but, in his opinion, allowing private companies to come in instead of the government would have been better.

Live by the anti-nuance, die by the anti-nuance. If you build a voter base of simpletons then you can't whine about the fact that they don't get your nuanced position.

"Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" . . . . that's what he said. Deal with it, Mitt.

 

[RustyNails]

Live by the anti-nuance, die by the anti-nuance. If you build a voter base of simpletons then you can't whine about the fact that they don't get your nuanced position.

"Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" . . . . that's what he said. Deal with it, Mitt.

Yeah, good luck explaining your Detroit article to Michiganders.

 

[A27_StarWolf]

Newts not done yet. all he has to do is get past this month. Once Mitt's super PAC ruins santorum, and santorum does sub par in a debate, Its going to give Newt a opening for one last push. Think he can get Texas?

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/republican-enthusiasm-issue-is-real.html

Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were 'very excited' about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats 'very excited' and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.

Going deeper inside the numbers:

-25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals.

-The percentage of Tea Party voters 'very excited' about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.

-The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots.

Mm, Republicans sure are excited to vote out Obummer.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Newts not done yet. all he has to do is get past this month. Once Mitt's super PAC ruins santorum, and santorum does sub par in a debate, Its going to give Newt a opening for one last push. Think he can get Texas?

LOL... Newt is done, man. He just wont get the press of debates or public campaigning until Super Tuesday, and by then it will be too late.

 

[RDreamer]

Newts not done yet. all he has to do is get past this month. Once Mitt's super PAC ruins santorum, and santorum does sub par in a debate, Its going to give Newt a opening for one last push. Think he can get Texas?

As others pointed out, what exactly is he going to attack? Santorum is a fucking crazy loon, but he's exactly the kind of crazy loon that the religious base loves. If Romney attacks Santorum on most of the stuff that everyone around here hates him for, then he's attacking a base that he really would rather capture for himself. I'm not saying Mitt's super PAC won't ruin Santorum, I'm just kind of stumped on how, or on how that'll affect Mitt in the general election.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Newts not done yet. all he has to do is get past this month. Once Mitt's super PAC ruins santorum, and santorum does sub par in a debate, Its going to give Newt a opening for one last push. Think he can get Texas?

Newt had not one, but two bounces. Voters got a good, solid look at him and the dropped him like a brick, just like they did Perry and Bachman before him. Newt was fortuitous that South Carolina came during his bounce, but he is toast for the contests going forward. His unfavorable are sky-high and unlikely to recover.

 

[Jackson50]

Piggy-backing off of Evlar, what's more problematic for Romney is that Santorum is likable to the base. Newt is not particularly likable to anyone.

I think that's partly a function of him being heretofore ignored by other candidates. Has anyone attacked him? Moreover, he received a nice bounce after he played the positive candidate while Romney and Gingrich bludgeoned each other in FL.

I understand the point you are trying to make but perhaps I should be more detailed, I'm not talking about sending troops in or flying them aid. I think it would have been much more effective to really verbally hammer home support of freedom, and their movement, instead of just saying it once. I believe where you are incorrect sir is in that these youthful revolutionists would have accepted our praise, or assistance because they are so westernized. We created this mess, we ought to fix it. As for sanctions.. I think they have a time in place, but I think we are taking it to far, to a point where it makes things worse. Please feel free to respond to my second half when ever, I appreciate the polite tone of your post and demeanor. Send me a PM if you'd like as well.

I presumed you were not referring to military aid. Regardless, the problem persists. Interfering in any manner would have been imprudent. Moreover, excoriating the regime more stridently than we did would have been inconsequential. Rhetoric is not a terribly powerful tool. This is especially true for a state diametric to U.S. interests. Additionally, the problem was not the youth. I suspect they would have largely opposed U.S. interference. Nevertheless, the problem was alienating other segments of society. For the opposition to become sustainable, the revolutionary contagion had to suffuse to other segments of Iranian society. The youth can catalyze a revolution. But they cannot sustain it. U.S. interference would have instantly alienated the broader Iranian public thereby discrediting the movement. The revolution had to galvanize the public. Unfortunately, suppression proved a sufficient deterrent. Although, we could not have changed that outcome. And while I sympathize with your sentiments, this is an instance where our ability to effect change was marginal.

I concur on the scope of our sanctions. Rather, I dispelled the notion that Obama's purported diffidence had emboldened Iran.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

I swear to god Jackson uses thesaurus on dictionary.com or something. :lol

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Newts not done yet. all he has to do is get past this month. Once Mitt's super PAC ruins santorum, and santorum does sub par in a debate, Its going to give Newt a opening for one last push. Think he can get Texas?

Newt is done. He never had a shot to begin with. People don't like his message. They don't like him. They don't like his ideas.

 

[Learn2read]

Piggy-backing off of Evlar, what's more problematic for Romney is that Santorum is likable to the base. Newt is not particularly likable to anyone.

It's also a problem for Romney because Santorum's biggest weakness is that he's a huge fucking bigot and crotch sniffer - which the GOP base loves. He can't really position himself against that.

 

[mckmas8808]

Rasmussen: Obama Approval Positive Through A Tracking Period For The First Time Since May

President Obama has a positive rating for an entire tracking period in Rasmussen Reports' daily presidential approval rating, pushing above 50 percent for three straight days: 50 - 48 on Sunday, 51 - 48 on Monday, and 50 - 49 Tuesday. The Ras tracking poll reflects an average of the three previous days, meaning that Obama has been in positive territory over the life of a tracking poll for the first time since early May.
​

##############

So if Rasmussen is saying this, does it look even worse for the GOP right now?

 

[Puddles]

I swear to god Jackson uses thesaurus on dictionary.com or something. :lol

My theory is that when he isn't posting here, he's writing a graduate thesis, and the two worlds have completely overlapped at this point.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Rasmussen: Obama Approval Positive Through A Tracking Period For The First Time Since May

President Obama has a positive rating for an entire tracking period in Rasmussen Reports' daily presidential approval rating, pushing above 50 percent for three straight days: 50 - 48 on Sunday, 51 - 48 on Monday, and 50 - 49 Tuesday. The Ras tracking poll reflects an average of the three previous days, meaning that Obama has been in positive territory over the life of a tracking poll for the first time since early May.
​

##############

So if Rasmussen is saying this, does it look even worse for the GOP right now?

Glad Obama's approvals are trending upward. The way I see it, Democrats' chances at winning back Congress depend on two things - Obama's popularity and Romney's popularity, Obama's being driven primarily by how well the economy is doing. Obama could still beat Romney with sub-50 approval rating, but there wouldn't be a lot of good will for other Democrats on the ballot and they probably wouldn't win back the House. On the other hand, an Obama with high approval ratings would have better coattails for congressional candidates.

I might be the only one who thinks this but I don't know if Santorum as the nominee will be as disastrous as everyone thinks it would be. PPP has had him performing similarly to Romney in swing states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri. He's also a lot less known, but I don't see it being a blowout situation like if Gingrich were it.

 

[mckmas8808]

Glad Obama's approvals are trending upward. The way I see it, Democrats' chances at winning back Congress depend on two things - Obama's popularity and Romney's popularity, Obama's being driven primarily by how well the economy is doing. Obama could still beat Romney with sub-50 approval rating, but there wouldn't be a lot of good will for other Democrats on the ballot and they probably wouldn't win back the House. On the other hand, an Obama with high approval ratings would have better coattails for congressional candidates.

I might be the only one who thinks this but I don't know if Santorum as the nominee will be as disastrous as everyone thinks it would be. PPP has had him performing similarly to Romney in swing states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri. He's also a lot less known, but I don't see it being a blowout situation like if Gingrich were it.

Unemployment would probably have to be under 8.0% for the DEMs to win back the Congress imo.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

My theory is that when he isn't posting here, he's writing a graduate thesis, and the two worlds have completely overlapped at this point.

Good theory. I would actually use the thesaurus on dictionary.com to re-write some words that I was typing for a paper. Yes, I know it sounds pedantic.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Unemployment would probably have to be under 8.0% for the DEMs to win back the Congress imo.

I think Obama's and House Dems' odds are pretty closely tied together. Ticket-splitting seems to be a far less common phenomenon now than it did in 1984 or 1996, where Reagan and Clinton won landslide victories but their respective parties didn't win back the House.

Incidentally, PPP/DailyKos posted a new poll today. Obama's personal favorability rating is 50/46, while his job approval is tied at 48/48. Democrats also lead the Republicans by 3 on the generic ballot, 46-43. They probably need to win by about a 4-point margin to have a chance at winning back the House. There's enough low-hanging fruit that they could get pretty close just from IL, CA, NY, and TX, but they'll need to win a few seats elsewhere too. I'm going to try to draw up a plausible victory path for Democrats soon.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Glad Obama's approvals are trending upward. The way I see it, Democrats' chances at winning back Congress depend on two things - Obama's popularity and Romney's popularity, Obama's being driven primarily by how well the economy is doing. Obama could still beat Romney with sub-50 approval rating, but there wouldn't be a lot of good will for other Democrats on the ballot and they probably wouldn't win back the House. On the other hand, an Obama with high approval ratings would have better coattails for congressional candidates.

I might be the only one who thinks this but I don't know if Santorum as the nominee will be as disastrous as everyone thinks it would be. PPP has had him performing similarly to Romney in swing states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri. He's also a lot less known, but I don't see it being a blowout situation like if Gingrich were it.

I think Santorum is a better candidate in terms of appealing to workers than Romney, but he's batshit crazy. This is a guy who thinks contraception should be illegal

 

[A27_StarWolf]

say what you want about his space ideas, we need more of that from candidates. NASA needs more funding if you ask me
. A lot of innovation comes from the military, but it also comes from NASA aa well.

 

[Chichikov]

Unemployment would probably have to be under 8.0% for the DEMs to win back the Congress imo.

A rising tide lifts all boats, and Newt or the anal lube can sink them all.
I don't think either have a very good chance of winning the nomination, but if they do, the GOP can lose a whole lot more than a chance for the white house.

 

[gcubed]

say what you want about his space ideas, we need more of that from candidates. NASA needs more funding if you ask me
. A lot of innovation comes from the military, but it also comes from NASA aa well.

more insane unrealistic things from candidates? No thanks

Obama is going to make a Mars colony, trump that!

He could cure world hunger also!

 

[Aaron Strife]

I think Santorum is a better candidate in terms of appealing to workers than Romney, but he's batshit crazy. This is a guy who thinks contraception should be illegal

Forgot about that one. That probably wouldn't resonate too well.

I do think he'd drive up base turnout though. For whatever advantage Romney would have with independents, it'll be the core Ds/Rs who decide the House elections. Obama getting a second term would be a hollow victory if he can't get anything done with an R Congress. (Though I'd prefer a Democratic President w/GOP Congress over the opposite)

 

[Puddles]

say what you want about his space ideas, we need more of that from candidates. NASA needs more funding if you ask me
. A lot of innovation comes from the military, but it also comes from NASA aa well.

I'd rather see us put funding into upgrading our energy grid and upgrading our rail lines.

 

[RustyNails]

Glad Obama's approvals are trending upward. The way I see it, Democrats' chances at winning back Congress depend on two things - Obama's popularity and Romney's popularity, Obama's being driven primarily by how well the economy is doing. Obama could still beat Romney with sub-50 approval rating, but there wouldn't be a lot of good will for other Democrats on the ballot and they probably wouldn't win back the House. On the other hand, an Obama with high approval ratings would have better coattails for congressional candidates.

I might be the only one who thinks this but I don't know if Santorum as the nominee will be as disastrous as everyone thinks it would be. PPP has had him performing similarly to Romney in swing states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri. He's also a lot less known, but I don't see it being a blowout situation like if Gingrich were it.

Called it in October

I'm in PantherLotus' camp. Obama's gonna win no matter who the GOP nom is, even Christie. I also predict a 3-4 point (or more) uptick in Obama's approval rating from November till the end of the year.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Called it in October

Pretty sure I called it in Nov 2008 that Obama would win a second term, but I don't believe I was a PoliGAFer at the time.

Still need to make up for this somehow.

 

[Chichikov]

more insane unrealistic things from candidates? No thanks

Obama is going to make a Mars colony, trump that!

He could cure world hunger also!

We put a man on the fucking moon (HOLY SHIT!) with 60s technology.
Seriously, the Apollo 11 computer was weaker than what you have in your fucking microwave.
We can build a moon colony, it's only a question of money.

Now, I'm not sure that a moon colony is the best avenue for manned space exploration at this point, but it's heaps better than the nothing we have right now.
And it really saddens me that manned space exploration became a punchline, so much so that probably no candidate will touch it now.

I'd rather see us put funding into upgrading our energy grid and upgrading our rail lines.

Why the two should be mutually exclusive?

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

say what you want about his space ideas, we need more of that from candidates. NASA needs more funding if you ask me
. A lot of innovation comes from the military, but it also comes from NASA aa well.

Yes, it does, but whats the use of funding NASA if we're so willing to let our infrastructure turn to shit and to purge our dependency on oil?
And in case I'm asked, I am all for funding NASA but I just find it interesting how so many conservatives attacked Obama for cutting NASA funding but they refuse to fund infrastructure bills and to truly fund programs that would help us stop our dependency on oil. Perhaps if we cut our defense spending enough, we can do both of those thing.

 

[Cloudy]

When people complain about Obama over compromising they need to see whats happening with this contraception debate

Women's groups lobbied the admin to make contraception a requirement for all insurance plans except direct faith instututions and they would have attacked him if HHS didn't try to get it done

Now that the rule has been proposed, the admin is taking fire from the Catholic Right and GOP while the media lets them distort the policy as an attack on relious freedom when its exactly the opposite. Where are the Women's groups pushing back against this?

Obama will have HHS back down because he doesn't need this in an election year but he'll still keep taking hits from Romney et al on this issue. Why should he stick his neck out to do what's right when he gets little backup when the right wing starts ginning up false outrage?

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Word.

A common argument is that we need to solve our problems at home before we start exploring space.

Since we'll never solve all of our problems, that really boils down to "we should never explore space."

We don't have efficient solutions to stay alive/healthy for any significant length of time in space because of radiation, space debris, degenerating bone density, and probably a slew of other problems that I'm not thinking of atm. What would be the human cost, and for what?

Until there are real solutions, then it's just fantasy.

 

[sc0la]

say what you want about his space ideas, we need more of that from candidates. NASA needs more funding if you ask me
. A lot of innovation comes from the military, but it also comes from NASA aa well.

Newt sure as hell doesn't think NASA is the way to build his moon colony. He has said NASA has hurt our space advancements because it isn't private enterprise. If you want a strong NASA supporter look elsewhere.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Glad Obama's approvals are trending upward. The way I see it, Democrats' chances at winning back Congress depend on two things - Obama's popularity and Romney's popularity, Obama's being driven primarily by how well the economy is doing. Obama could still beat Romney with sub-50 approval rating, but there wouldn't be a lot of good will for other Democrats on the ballot and they probably wouldn't win back the House. On the other hand, an Obama with high approval ratings would have better coattails for congressional candidates.

I might be the only one who thinks this but I don't know if Santorum as the nominee will be as disastrous as everyone thinks it would be. PPP has had him performing similarly to Romney in swing states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri. He's also a lot less known, but I don't see it being a blowout situation like if Gingrich were it.

Agree, and to add - I know I've been beating this particular drum lately, but I wanted to toss this in one more time (then I'll chill for the month). Gallup's economic confidence measure continued to spike up today, which I think is in response to the Friday jobs report. Josh Marshall made a similar observation on the measures of Obama's handling on the economy, which improving rapidly; the related consumer confidence measure is also reflecting the swing. While I believe the ongoing primary is helping to damage the Republican candidates in the eyes of the public (as evidenced by their favorability rating swings), it's the public's confidence in an improving economy that is buoying Obama and Dems in general.

So long as that holds, Obama will be re-elected, and Dems have a solid shot at re-taking the House. If it falters, so do their chances.

 

[empty vessel]

A lot of innovation comes from the military, but it also comes from NASA aa well.

Equivalently stated: A lot of innovation comes from government spending.

 

[Chichikov]

We don't have efficient solutions to stay alive/healthy for any significant length of time in space because of radiation, space debris, degenerating bone density, and probably a slew of other problems that I'm not thinking of atm. What would be the human cost, and for what?

Until there are real solutions, then it's just fantasy.

How are you going to get real solutions without funding?

Equivalently stated: A lot of innovation comes from government spending.

And that's not only limited to NASA and the military.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

How are you going to get real solutions without funding?

They're doing fine, and working on solutions.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Equivalently stated: A lot of innovation comes from government spending.

Fantastic.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Fantastic.

And true. Every Republican that says that government stifles innovation makes me slap myself.

 

[thefit]

OH theres a community thread?! Son of a bitch