You're right, probably 2024.
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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News
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You're right, probably 2024.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I'm not talking about 'these people'. I'm talking about people who voted for him and were disappointed.
I stopped reading about Obamacare stuff a while ago. It was all bad news. I hope it comes together but ffs it was/is not looking good.
I know you guys have probably heard this a million times but Christ, this was his one, defining implementation. Why was he not a better leader...
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's that population movement that's helping turn those states blue, though. In 2012 PPP asked voters in Southern states whether they'd always lived there or if they were recent (within the last 10 years) residents. The former group broke for Romney and the latter group broke for Obama.I think the thing that will work against the Democrats a bit is population movement. The US has been continually moving south and west since the beginning ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_center_of_the_United_States_population ). I don't have exact figures, but generally the reliably blue states are either losing population or gaining population less quickly than reliably red states.
This cuts both ways, of course. CA and the other blue Pacific states are benefitting from the westward move as well, but in general 'west and south' means good for Republicans when you're currently at this:
It behooves states like Texas and Georgia to turn blue more quickly, as in 2020 they will have more electoral votes while the blue Northeast and Great Lakes continue to bleed them.
Young kids moving on from college go to the South and they take their political views with them.
ACA is doing a lot better since its initial website bullshittery. We're already at 14 million people with healthcare who didn't have it before.CoffeeJanitor said:I stopped reading about Obamacare stuff a while ago. It was all bad news. I hope it comes together but ffs it was/is not looking good.
I know you guys have probably heard this a million times but Christ, this was his one, defining implementation. Why was he not a better leader...
It's actually a brilliant move, because it means immigration reform gets passed (and Obama gets the credit) but it means that "will you allow the immigration reform bill to go into effect" will be the first question at every Republican primary debate, which takes away the entire benefit from taking it off the table for the GOP. No surprise Boehner shot it down -- it's nothing but downsides for the Republicans.
That's got to be some of the most petty, childish bullshit i've ever seen. Fuck.
Yeah, anecdotal, but the ACA seems ridiculously popular now (in the last month or so) among a lot of people I know who are actually affected by it and were skeptical before and during the shitty website launch. I imagine by the end of his term once it's been up and running for a few years it will be a pretty popular program overall.
Obama has been elevated to GOAT status by my mom because of Obamacare. She's a cancer survivor, and I'm under 26, so I'm on her new Obamacare plan and we're getting way better coverage now and she's saving over $400 a month. She was a swing voter who leaned R (voted for Bush twice), but liked Obama and voted for him twice, and has been really turned off by the racism brought out in the Republican party since his election. Now she says Obama's her favorite president in her lifetime (born at the end of Eisenhower) and she can't imagine voting Republican ever again for the foreseeable future.
RustyNails
Member
On the flip side you read stories out of rural America where people are saving a bunch under Obamacare, but still don't like it because they "didn't ask for it", or don't like it "in principle". There was a story here week or so ago about a pastor with 5 kids qualified for tons of subsidies under Obamacare and is saving a butt load, but still does not like it because he does not want to be a 'moocher'. These people would rather cut their noses off to spite the face. They will never appreciate it. They will all fall into the same category as all those people who receive farm subsidies, medicare, medicaid and social security and still cannot reconcile it with their hate for big gubmint.
People like that pastor has probably been told all their lives that government assistance for any thing are for the lazy, the "moochers", the "welfare queens", etc...Hard working, "true" Americans never need or want government assistance. Their political leaders have drilled in their heads over the past 35-40 years that any help from the government is inherently bad, for the lazy, and just down right evil. So even when government assistance does help them, their natural instincts tells them to reject it.
Well, at least they aren't being hypocritical about it. Much better than those who's egos have elevated to the point where they can collect unemployment and food stamps while rallying against government handouts, because most people never view themselves as lazy moochers. They're hardworking middle-class folks who have just been temporarily knocked down.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I like the story from Kentucky where a woman signed up for KYnect (Kentucky's ACA exchange) and was happy because she thought it meant she didn't have to sign up for Obamacare.
Or where an older, conservative couple go to a McDonald's and praise them for putting nutritional info on the menu (mandated by ACA), because it allows customers to make their own decisions instead of "being forced to be healthy, like with Obamacare." Then when the journalist told them it was due to a provision in Obamacare, they were suddenly against it.
Moral of the story: people fucking suck.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
What about all those elderly who spend the end of their lives not experiencing the dignity of work and instead rely on government handouts that have reduced our labor force by millions? End social security it makes things to comfortable for the elderly, I'm sure grandma can find a job.
WayneMorse
Banned
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVdx-yCeDeY
Holy shit this is the most Republican ad I've ever seen in my entire life.
Holy shit this is the most Republican ad I've ever seen in my entire life.
speculawyer
Member
Holy shit is right . . . that is embarrassing IMHO.
He hates the president, he's a theocrat, and he pushes borderline unconstitutional policies. Yes . . . Texas is a 'special' place.
Texas moment of silence law? For real?
I am so glad I don't live in the south, specifically the deep south. Virginia is about as far as I could go (I was really impressed when last there, I must say), but that is because the state is now a bit of an anomaly. I'm from PA, which has pockets of deep red, sadly, but the heavily populated areas and some smaller metro areas/towns keep this a purple state. It is also true that there are some key progressive spots in the south. But generally I could still never call that region home.
I'd love to watch them split off from the US and then drown in their own stupidity when they aren't getting any more help from the US federal government, not to mention the mere fact that blue states and their oh so bad high taxes are helping pay for them.
I am so glad I don't live in the south, specifically the deep south. Virginia is about as far as I could go (I was really impressed when last there, I must say), but that is because the state is now a bit of an anomaly. I'm from PA, which has pockets of deep red, sadly, but the heavily populated areas and some smaller metro areas/towns keep this a purple state. It is also true that there are some key progressive spots in the south. But generally I could still never call that region home.
I'd love to watch them split off from the US and then drown in their own stupidity when they aren't getting any more help from the US federal government, not to mention the mere fact that blue states and their oh so bad high taxes are helping pay for them.
theprodigy
Member
PhoenixDark
Banned
This is why republicans are doomed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAwajgobjQk
I actually felt bad for George Will, lord help me. How do you debate with someone who has no intellectual interest in anything, and whose sole goal is to rile up anger? And notice how she claims the GOP and democrat establishments are out of tune with the majority of the country. The vast majority of the country supports a path to citizenship. She is skewing the country to focus on 25-30%.
Ultimately her concern isn't winning elections. The more republicans lose, the higher her ratings go because it fosters anger in the base. Beck, Savage, Rush, etc couldn't give a shit less about winning elections.
I actually felt bad for George Will, lord help me. How do you debate with someone who has no intellectual interest in anything, and whose sole goal is to rile up anger? And notice how she claims the GOP and democrat establishments are out of tune with the majority of the country. The vast majority of the country supports a path to citizenship. She is skewing the country to focus on 25-30%.
Ultimately her concern isn't winning elections. The more republicans lose, the higher her ratings go because it fosters anger in the base. Beck, Savage, Rush, etc couldn't give a shit less about winning elections.
The GAF DNC thread was hilarious. People were losing their damn minds during his speech.
It was a damn good speech. I almost forgot I couldn't vote for him.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Shhhh! let them keep thinking that.
RustyNails
Member
She had basically no response to anything George Will and Juan said. It was like watching a car wreck in slow motion.
TacticalFox88
Banned
And then you got sad immediately after the realization.
JesseEwiak
Member
The point is not to win Hispanic voters per se, it's to stop Hispanic voters from being an automatic win for Democrat's. If the GOP were getting Dubya in Texas numbers among Hispanic voters, they could still win national elections. But, if Hispanics start voting for the DNC 70-30 or 80-20 consistently because the GOP is made up of people who want to deport Grandma Maria, then they're doomed.
Yep, I remember that too.
Meh, I don't think their vote is for sale anymore. They are going to remember this and call the Democratic party home, unless they happen to have some very far right religious/social views (which DOES apply in some cases but moving forward, generally, Hispanics = blue).
I think 70-30 is the floor at this point.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Well I do think it's insane to say we need immigration reform because we're facing a worker shortage. I wish we had a worker shortage right now, but that's clearly the 100% exact opposite of what's going on right now.
The true argument for immigration is one of compassion, but I guess you can't expect any republican to argue for that.
zero shift
Banned
Florida has always interested me because it is one of the very few (if only) states that has both the reddest of the red voters along with democrats. Is there any other swing state that has conservatives' this conservative?
Avon Barksdale
Member
Dubya was the exception was because 1. He spoke fluent Spanish and 2. Was pro-immigration, neither which are popular with Republicans.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Eh, maybe.
If you applied the 2004 voting preferences to the 2012 demographics, Kerry would have won. Bush did really well with Hispanics but they're becoming a large enough voting bloc that they can seal the deal for the Democrats, as long as they're holding 90% of African-Americans and not getting killed with whites.
Well Wisconsin's love affair with Scott Walker is pretty weird considering they just elected a big city liberal lesbian woman as senator.zero shift said:
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's odd how quickly Colorado became a swing state. Clinton won it in 92 by a small margin, lost in 96 by a small margin, went for Bush both times by big margins, then for Obama both times by big margins.
PhoenixDark
Banned
It's also worth noting that Hispanics will face some interesting transition periods in the coming years/generations due to assimilation. As more begin to identify as white, and as immigration becomes less of an issue, we could see a shift in a variety of things, from religion to voting patterns.
zero shift
Banned
People here just don't realize how far to the right Walker is. Many just see him as "oh that guy who stands up to the unions."
I remember when I went to school in CSU - Pueblo I was amazed with how conservative the whites there were. When Obama won the tears were...horrifying. A lot of "it was about race" was repeated for some time after the election.
This is true. However assimilation requires social mobility. Remember "minority" has just as much to do with one's social status as it does with one's skin color, if not even more so. Hispanics still have poor social mobility and a poverty rate that matches that of blacks. Once that is fixed though? Well it depends. The Jews stayed to the left wing, the Irish moved to the right to the point where they are split 50/50, and every one else went to the right wing.
Avon Barksdale
Member
You say that as if Latinos have been the U.S. for only a short time.
TheHeretic
Banned
Political parties adapt over time. The left wing parties of the 80's and 90's were hemorrhaging voters before figures like Clinton, Blair, Whitlam, Schröder etc. who moved their parties more into neoliberalism. Parties are designed to win elections, once that stops happening they adapt to new realities.
Even if the republican party went down in flames, some new right wing party would emerge to take its place almost immediately. Karl Rove used to talk about his "permanent coalition", see how that turned out?
Aaron Strife
Banned
To be fair Karl Rove is a pretty terrible strategist.
His winning strategy worked exactly one time.
TheHeretic
Banned
I think his strategy was better than his candidate TBH. I think the hispanic outreach plan was doomed to fail in the long run for complicated reasons, but it tanked early because of how poorly Bush had performed in office.
Are you implying that someone with the nickname of "Bush's Brain" is in fact, not very impressive?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
It also seems pretty weird to me that it passed legalized marijuana while it wouldn't have stood a chance in all the other states that are supposedly much much more liberal. And yet it was also one of the few states that went to the uber religious Santorum in the primaries over Romney.
I live here, and even I can't explain it. I guess when you add up all the extreme demographics, including the big city denver liberals, the college towns, the super rich suburbs, the laid back rich ski resort towns, the farm areas, the military towns, and the latino areas, and you just get a mess of mathmatics that is completely untamable.
I recently saw a Republican elected state official from the mega rich mountain district of Evergreen speak, and she thinks Republicans could easily have Colorado back if they just backed gay marriage, citing the gay marriage ban of 2006 as the turning point, and I think it's possible she's right.
Aaron Strife
Banned
That would probably help a fair deal. If there's any issue in modern US politics where the two parties are clearly divergent - and are actually willing to enforce their position if elected - it's gay marriage.
I'm actually a little worried Republicans could co-opt legalizing pot as an issue from the Democrats which would also help them with younger voters, but it would seem most leaders of both parties don't want to touch it for some reason. Who the fuck cares?
Now admittedly, I know Colorado mostly from Denver, Boulder and the ski resorts towns, but I always got the sense that Colorado's conservationism had a frontier, self reliance and leave me the fuck alone slant.
Also, you guys smoke crazy amount of weed, especially in Boulder, and I say it as someone who used to live in Seattle.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I grew up next to a church with 6,000 members in it and went to a school with like 1 minority and a few kids so "cowboy" you literally never see them take off their 10 gallon hats. So my personal experience has included plenty of the usual pro religious government meddling.
I move 20 miles north to Denver and it's like I've moved to a different state. It's kindof a surreal to think about, though I guess the citizens of Austin probably feel the same way. Its just the ratios are such that statewide elections aren't quite the same as Texas. Though I do admit Denver does have a more libertarian feel to it than a liberal one.
Nationally that might be a terrible move unless they're willing to give up the bible belt deep south. You think those poorer states are really going to stay anti-poor without the social boogeymen issues?
Locally it'd be a great idea, but there's like no chance for a republican like that to get through the primaries given the weird demographic layouts we're talking about.
Soo I'm part of this crazy political discussion group on Facebook (which has some insane right-wingers) and I'm arguing with this guy whose studying to be a social worker.. who literally denies privilege and institutional racism actually exists.. (he's white) is that the social science equivalent to a biologist who doesn't believe in evolution?
This holds true everywhere I've been in the US.
The real division in this country is rural vs. urban, and it's been the case since its founding.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
It was always super weird. I grew up in Wisconsin and always thought it was more or less liberal
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