RustyNails
Member
More like how can we squeeze more hits out of Worst president evarrr.
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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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Lol, I know. Unless Diablos stole your account.
Credit to CNN though, I see on the side bar Obama's rising approval numbers(video even started autoplaying to the right) and how a majority of Americans back his Cuba relaxation.
Aaron Strife
Banned
48% is pretty good.
If Obama leaves office with an approval rating of 50% or higher I'd consider that a victory.
I'd say there's a hard 20-25% or so of the country that's always going to oppose him for obvious reasons
If Obama leaves office with an approval rating of 50% or higher I'd consider that a victory.
I'd say there's a hard 20-25% or so of the country that's always going to oppose him for obvious reasons
This is why Dems are fools bending over backwards to appeal to folks who refuse to compromise with them. If you have your base, you will never go below 45%.
Don't disappoint them while getting tangible things done and you will have 50% or better. The uptick in the polls is all demoralized Dems coming back
This has been a pet issue of mine that I've been following ever so closely, and today Ezra Klein spells it out as plainly as possible:
http://www.vox.com/2014/12/23/7440131/obamacare-red-states
This is the only positive thing that would come out of the SC voting in favor of the Republican argument. Way to sock it to Obama you stupid fucks.
http://www.vox.com/2014/12/23/7440131/obamacare-red-states
This is the only positive thing that would come out of the SC voting in favor of the Republican argument. Way to sock it to Obama you stupid fucks.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Lol
Assuming things stay decent for another month (barring terrorist attack I don't see why not), he's going to have a pretty good SotU platform. I wonder how the vanquished Dems from the midterms feel about everything.
Paging Magnetite.
Ha!
I've already resolved - I'm going to be my nieces' cool liberal uncle. And I'm not going to be nearly as heavy-handed as my own uncles were. As soon as I acknowledged that I was following politics (around 6th grade), they began working on me..
"This guy on the radio - Rush Limbaugh - you need to listen to him. He's smart!"
They were so disappointed when I and the one other "smart kid" in the family both ended-up raging lefties..
Armoured Priest
Member
You know...part of me feels like its high time all those red states that have been sucking on the government teat start paying back the blue states that support them.
Mrs. Clinton is really going to waltz to the nomination? I cant believe. SHE MUST BE PRIMARIED/sarcasm......
really though, I have this sinking feeling she could lose to bush. To be honest, she CAN lose to jeb.
At this point, Id realistically entertain the notion of a jeb bush split party ticket VP nod if it meant him not winning the R nomination.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If it's Clinton vs. Bush then it becomes a proxy election between Bill and George barring some major screwup on either side. Then all you have to ask is whether the 90s were better than the 00s.
I don't want to say Clinton would have it in the bag but... yeah.
I don't want to say Clinton would have it in the bag but... yeah.
Combine that with Jeb's stance of Cuba, which I can only imagine will become more and more unpopular as the American people are exposed to the country and as American businesses start investing and expanding into it's markets, and I don't think he'll do as well as people are forecasting. It's one thing to want to continue the embargo as it's happening, it's another to want to reinstate it after it's gone.
Yup.
Normally, this would be a referendum on how people feel about the party that's occupied the White House for the past 8 years.. but Clinton v Bush mostly overrides this. If Obama somehow becomes unpopular on the level of Bush 2, nominating Jeb and turning 2016 into a Bill vs George race would be a huge mistake.
If the economy is still humming along decently in two years, I'd bet that we see another election like 2012, where we might have a close moment or two (Obama v Romney after Debate #1), but we know all along that the Democrat's structural advantage remains just too big to overcome.
I'm guessing that electing a member of the same party a third time in a row is going to put a bit of a ceiling on Clinton's potential. We won't see 2008-like EC margins, unless Bush screws-up royally or the economy goes absolutely berserk in a positive direction.
Americans memory and attention spans are short. George bush will be sadly a feint memory by then and jeb will look fresh. The media will be tanking for jeb bush. Can we really fairly asses both jeb and hillary by their spouse and broth/father and not have one of them get away with it??
Jeb bush is formidable..... I'm not diablosing but dont be surprised if americans with their ignorance elect a 3rd bush over the first woman. (see the past 2 midterms for proof)
God dammit.
Jeb Bush would indeed be formidable. As I have been saying, 2016 is not a done deal for Democrats. Obama will grow all the more isolated and even something like the SCOTUS ruling in favor of King is going to hurt the party big time.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Why are we talking about Jeb Bush when he won't even matter by Super Tuesday. He's not going anywhere with a hyper anti-immigrant base, not to mention the Common Core conspiracy theorists.
[2010-2011]Why are we even talking about Romney, he's a Mormon with the charisma of a wet fart who passed Obamacare at the state level. He won't survive the primaries.[/2010-2011]
Dont underestimate the Republican establishment. They in the end get who they want. The conservative "alternate" will get trounced by the money Bush will have by his side. Its been done like that for the last 50+ years of Republican Primaries. Even with Romney and McCain flaws, the "moderate", "who has the best chance to win" eventually got the nomination.
Wouldn't surprise me if the establishment pushes multiple conservative alternatives so that they divide the vote to the right of Jeb.
If Jeb's in, then Romney is probably out. And if Jeb is in, it tells me that he's pretty confident that all of the pieces will be in place for him to win nomination.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Bush isn't the only establishment candidate. This isn't 2012 when it was obvious who was going to win, given the field. Jeb Bush, Christie, Walker, and potentially Romney will all by vying for the same establishment interests. Each candidate is flawed but Jeb might be the most flawed of the establishment candidates, with Christie a close second. A sullied name, hated by the base...it's not going to happen. Especially considering what the south is setting up early in the primaries:
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/dixie-rising-113734.html
Bush won't win Iowa, South Carolina, probably won't win NH (which is more extremist than advertised), and sure as hell won't win any of those 5 southern states.
On what basis are your assumptions coming from if you dont mind me asking?
Shocker, there was always enough evidence to get to a trail. The fact it didn't was criminal. The same should happen in NYC, but Staten Island so it wouldn't matter...
It's the lone upside of grand juries, no double jeopardy preventing a trial from being called when new stuff comes to light
smokeandmirrors
Banned
i'm already hearing cries of "DOUBLE JEOPARDY!!111!" if it actually happens though.
Oh wow, I thought that was just ThinkProgress just ThinkProgressing again.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Iowa is Rand Paul's to lose. The establishment recently pried the local party away from Ron Party supporters, but they still have the numbers to dominate the actual voting process come 2016.
Moderate candidates will have an easier time in NH, but it's still a state with an active, thriving tea party wing.
I don't see a moderate of any type winning the five southern states in March 2016. Five deep south states...I'm sorry, there's no way an immigration advocate is going to win those states.
Basically I expect one establishment candidate to drop out of the race early after a string of losses...and I think it'll be Jeb or Christie.
speculawyer
Member
Politics sucks at this point. It really does.
Nothing gets done for the next 2 years.
Hillary wins but she can't do anything because the GOP owns the House and can't do anything.
Nothing is going to happen for nearly a decade. This sucks.
Nothing gets done for the next 2 years.
Hillary wins but she can't do anything because the GOP owns the House and can't do anything.
Nothing is going to happen for nearly a decade. This sucks.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Said pretty much nobody. Everyone knew he was going to get the nomination.
Bingo!
Court rulings and executive orders. That's it.
Oh, and shit-hits-the-fan, emergency-situation measures (think 2008 financial meltdown-type measures).
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2014/cb14-232.html
Florida is now more populated than New York.
Also. #Heitkamp2018 or something:
Florida is now more populated than New York.
Also. #Heitkamp2018 or something:
NYCmetsfan
Banned
the oil decline is gonna kill them
TacticalFox88
Banned
Jesus at California.
1 in EIGHT Americans live there?
How in the fuck did that happen?
1 in EIGHT Americans live there?
How in the fuck did that happen?
I hate to say it, but it is, actually, the best place on the mainland.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Wow, how can one person be so wrong? How do you guys live with everything being 3 hours before you?
but seriously Boston-NYC-DC > West CoastAaron Strife
Banned
I think Hillary might be able to get some token legislation done like some sort of education reform, but nothing that anyone here will be able to get really excited about. (At best, at worse she pursues some sort of grand bargain deal)
One thing I heard was that the DCCC had trouble recruiting their best candidates in 2014 because many of them decided to wait until 2016 when there would be more favorable turnout. And man some of these candidates had better show up. I think there's enough low-hanging fruit that Democrats could swing 15 seats or so, but that still only puts them halfway to a majority.
I can't see a path to a majority. Literally every single thing would have to go right for the Democrats, and more than a few relatively safe-ish Republicans would need to explode.
Look at it this way: if every single marginal swing district rated by Cook right now went to the Dems, they'd only get 222 members of the House.
I mean, I wouldn't give much credence to estimates of the 2016 races made today. There's way too much time and uncertainty. And that's especially true for House races, which are never polled because there are too many.
Let me put it this way: if Hillary Clinton runs against, say, Ted Cruz, she'll get a House majority. The House isn't going to run 20 points behind her. All it takes is a big enough win.
Wall Street is most likely going to blow up the economy in the next few years, this will stir things up, hard to tell in which direction exactly though.
Sirpopopop
Member
The American people will blame the fact that the market "overall" wasn't "free enough" and there needs to be "less regulation." Meanwhile on an individual item by item basis, they will favor regulation.
I didn't notice anyone mention Michael Schiavo's comments on Jeb Bush last week:
Do you think this would be an effective issue against Bush in an election or is it too touchy a subject? There's some stuff in the article I didn't know about and really makes Bush seemed kind of unhinged:
If anything, the interview resulted in this lolworthy headline from the Daily Caller:
Do you think this would be an effective issue against Bush in an election or is it too touchy a subject? There's some stuff in the article I didn't know about and really makes Bush seemed kind of unhinged:
If anything, the interview resulted in this lolworthy headline from the Daily Caller:
RustyNails
Member
GOP could always do something dumb like shut the government.
But yeah. Usually the Congress is punished for the President's sins.
I know that a fair number of Freepers still bring-up the Schiavo case as a major reason for why they won't vote for him, so I could see it coming-up during the primaries.
If it helps shave-off conservative turnout during the general, that's great. Every bit helps.
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
These references are getting more and more obscure.
Since it's Christmas Eve, let me put on my Diablos hat and engage in some morbid speculation to counter Klein's article:
Imagine that five justices adopt the challengers' reading of the statute in King, and therefore strike down the IRS rule as contrary to the statute. Then, the Court decides that making subsidies contingent on a state establishing its own exchange is unconstitutionally coercive. At this point, the Court recognizes that only Congress can raise taxes or authorize expenditures, and so the Court cannot, as Beutler suggests in the New Republic piece I just linked to, say that subsidies must be available in every state. Instead, the Court is left with one choice: invalidate all subsidies. As Black Mamba can attest, the conservative justices recognize that the availability of subsidies is critical to the functioning of the ACA, and so the Court cannot strike down the subsidies without striking down the entire law. Which they do.
Merry Christmas, everyone.
Great. Now Diablos is going to put on HIS Diablos hat.
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