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[ISOM]

lol

 

[Aaron Strife]

.

You're right, and therefore we shouldn't talk about anything. Unless it's about how doomed the Democrats are which is exempt from "it's early"

Oh wait, I found something on your favorite subject!

http://www.wsj.com/article_email/ne...allenger-1423527427-lMyQjAxMTE1NzAzOTYwNzkwWj

One of the plaintiffs in the Supreme Court case against the Affordable Care Act listed a short-term-stay motel as her address when she joined the lawsuit, potentially calling into question her basis for suing.

...

Ms. Luck described herself in court papers as a 55-year-old resident of Petersburg, Va., in the fall of 2013, when the litigation was initiated. The address she provided is for the American Inn motel a short distance from Interstate 95. A receptionist at the inn said Sunday that Ms. Luck didn’t currently live there and that residents weren’t allowed to stay more than 28 days.

Ms. Luck’s address was used by her attorneys and the government to calculate the cost of insurance plans for people her age in her ZIP Code, as well as the value of insurance tax credits. That information was relevant for determining whether Ms. Luck’s situation qualified her to be a plaintiff in the case. Her right to bring the case, or “standing,” already had been subject to questions during earlier stages of the litigation on whether she was exempt from the penalty for not buying coverage because her income was too low.

So as it turns out, it may be that none of the conservative sockpuppets even have standing in this case.

 

[kess]

It's early yet, but PPP finds Toomey, Kirk, Johnson and Portman vulnerable in 2016 based on the recent actions involving DHS funding and immigration.

http://action.seiu.org/page/-/ImmigrationPollsMemo Feb2015.pdf

Low approval ratings, high approval for Obama's immigration policy.

And remember just knocking off those four would tie the Senate - and Democrats still have NC, FL, NH and AZ as pickup opportunities.

Charlie Dent has his old House seat (which used to be in a Democratic district), blows it out every year, and reaches out to voters much more than the aloof Toomey. If the PA GOP swings back to moderation, he would be an obvious candidate.

Toomey has some popularity among certain parts of the PA GOP, but barely eked out a win against an incompetent Sestak in a wave election.

 

[Metaphoreus]

You're right, and therefore we shouldn't talk about anything. Unless it's about how doomed the Democrats are which is exempt from "it's early"

Oh wait, I found something on your favorite subject!

http://www.wsj.com/article_email/ne...allenger-1423527427-lMyQjAxMTE1NzAzOTYwNzkwWj

So as it turns out, it may be that none of the conservative sockpuppets even have standing in this case.

I'm not trying to silence any discussion (though I guess omitting the remainder of your post and replacing it with a period might give that impression). But any discussion of polls at this point is subject to the same criticism: it's early 2015, and the next elections aren't until late 2016. They're interesting as a snapshot in time, but there are very few inferences about the next elections that can be drawn from polls this far in advance.

And we already discussed the standing issue yesterday.

 

[NeoXChaos]

and yet the PA Democrats going to nominate sestak again. why?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

whats PD's thoughts on random-gate?

 

[Wilsongt]

what makes people think aaron schock is gay????

"photographer"<---- people think Jonathon is his "secret boyfriend"?

He's about as gay as Lindsey Graham. Which means, he's gay.

 

[ivysaur12]

"photographer"

oh my god.

 

[Poodlestrike]

whats PD's thoughts on random-gate?

Oh lord, not another gate.

 

[HylianTom]

He's about as gay as Lindsey Graham. Which means, he's gay.

Yup. My 'dar tells me that his knees are probably well-acquainted with his clavicles.

 

[JesseEwiak]

and yet the PA Democrats going to nominate sestak again. why?

Because he almost beat Toomey despite it being the 2010 GOP wave? Also, because Sestak's spent the last five years raising an assload of money.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

He's about as gay as Lindsey Graham. Which means, he's gay.

Graham isn't gay I think.

I mean this dude is hanging out in gay bars. Graham just doesn't have a girlfriend and has a lisp.

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't think Graham is gay. Schock is very gay, and a very big douche for doing what he does.

Also, if he came out, guess what? He'd still get reelected. It's Peoria, not Mobile.

 

[kess]

Democrats seemed convinced that Specter was feigning his party switch though he voted consistently liberal on all issues even after he lost the Democratic primary.

Sestak reminds me a lot of Terry McAuliffe.

 

[NeoXChaos]

AS long as the democrats dont waste money on candidates who cant win like they did with pryor, idc who they nominate because as long as they are not braley, the Hillary coattails should suffice.

Does anyone think AG of MS Jim Hood could win a senate seat or governorship in the future?

What some may not know is that Mississippi has never elected a Republican to be Attorney General.. Arkansas broke the streak last year.

 

[Oblivion]

Especially considering the writers they hired don't seem to have any core knowledge or familiarity about the subjects they write about other than the fact that they happen to write about them. They don't have the fundamental research capability to know what the "context" even should be. (At best they know what they want it to be.)

Brb. Filling out a job application.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/10/the-case-against-the-case-against-the-crusades/?_r=0

But I’m also not interested in an exercise in historical amnesia where the actual necessities of medieval geopolitics get wiped out of Western memory in favor of blanket condemnation of anyone who took the cross. If you want me to condemn pogroms in the Rhineland or the bloody aftermath of Jerusalem’s fall or the entirety of the Fourth Crusade, I will, and readily. But ask me if I’m sorry that Spain is Spain and not Al-Andalus, or if I regret Lepanto or Jan Sobieski’s gallop to Vienna, or if I wish that Saint Louis had somehow rescued Outremer or that aid had come to Constantinople in the 15th century — I’m not, I don’t, I do. There are parts of Christian civilization’s past that have to be simply judged, rejected, and disowned; that the list is depressingly long, too long for a presidential speech. But the Crusades are nowhere near that simple, and to disown them requires a kind of amputation, a schism with the past, a triumph of forgetfulness over the more complicated obligations of actually remembering.

talk about missing the point of the quote and the comparison.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm not trying to silence any discussion (though I guess omitting the remainder of your post and replacing it with a period might give that impression). But any discussion of polls at this point is subject to the same criticism: it's early 2015, and the next elections aren't until late 2016. They're interesting as a snapshot in time, but there are very few inferences about the next elections that can be drawn from polls this far in advance.

I like how there's not much we can infer from early polls showing, for example, Hillary Clinton dominating the Republican field in key swing states but then on the flip side there's no shortage of the doom parade practically coronating Jeb Bush as the next president. Based on what?

 

[Metaphoreus]

I like how there's not much we can infer from early polls showing, for example, Hillary Clinton dominating the Republican field in key swing states but then on the flip side there's no shortage of the doom parade practically coronating Jeb Bush as the next president. Based on what?

I have never voiced an opinion on the 2016 election, so I wouldn't venture to guess.

 

[pigeon]

http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/10/the-case-against-the-case-against-the-crusades/?_r=0


talk about missing the point of the quote and the comparison.

I am actually kind of fascinated by the absurdity of Douthat's argument, which is, essentially, "when historians look back at the Crusades they identify them as having a variety of intertwined causes, rather than being a straightforward act of unalloyed evil."

That is literally the point of the comparison!

 

[NeoXChaos]

I like how there's not much we can infer from early polls showing, for example, Hillary Clinton dominating the Republican field in key swing states but then on the flip side there's no shortage of the doom parade practically coronating Jeb Bush as the next president. Based on what?

Its early like Meph said. These polls are going to flip flop all cycle long leading up right on election day 2016. That's why I feel saying it will be a tight election is more in line with reality than suggesting a blow out.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I am actually kind of fascinated by the absurdity of Douthat's argument, which is, essentially, "when historians look back at the Crusades they identify them as having a variety of intertwined causes, rather than being a straightforward act of unalloyed evil."

That is literally the point of the comparison!

exactly. that was obama's point. It dosen't go Islam -> Isis just like the it doesn't go christianity -> crusades despite the claims by the actors claiming it does.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

https://governor.ks.gov/media-room/...overnor-sam-brownback-issues-executive-orders

TOPEKA &#8211; Kansas Governor Sam Brownback today released two executive orders, one rescinding certain Executive Orders and another encouraging employment practices for veterans and disabled individuals.

Executive Order 15-01 rescinds nine previous executive orders and abolishes specific inactive councils, task forces, committees, boards, advisory councils and commissions created through the following Executive Orders:

07-21 rescinds an order signed by Governor Sebelius making the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees/Child Care Providers Together the exclusive majority representative of all registered and licensed family child care providers.

07-24 is replaced by Executive Order 15-03 and rescinds an order signed by Governor Sebelius that unilaterally established additional &#8220;protected class rights&#8221; for state employees, specifically for sexual orientation and gender identity.

08-01 rescinds the order signed by Governor Sebelius establishing the Governor&#8217;s Wind Working Group.

08-05 abolishes the the Governor&#8217;s P20 Education Council, established by Governor Sebelius.

09-02 abolishes the Kansas Coalition for Children in Nature established by Governor Seblius. The functions of this coalition duplicate efforts of the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks.

10-04 abolishes the Commission on Graduation and Dropout Prevention and Recovery established by Governor Mark Parkinson. Current programs including Jobs for America&#8217;s Graduates and Career and Technical Education address these issues more efficiently.

10-08 abolishes the Kansas Broadband Advisory Task Force established by Governor Mark Parkinson.

10-11 abolishes the Kansas Food Security Task Force established by Governor Mark Parkinson.

10-13 abolishes the Interagency Working Group for Wind Energy established by Governor Mark Parkinson.

&#8220;Many of these commissions, working groups and task forces have not met for several years or duplicate other ongoing efforts,&#8221; Governor Brownback said. &#8220;These changes streamline operations and reduce operational costs of maintaining these various committees.&#8221;

Executive Order 15-02 reaffirms the commitment of the State of Kansas to employment practices which do not discriminate based on race, color, gender, religion, national origin, ancestry or age. It further establishes that state entities will implement employment management practices for veterans and disabled individuals that include outreach, hiring, support, mentoring, development, rewards and recognition for achievement.

&#8220;This Executive Order ensures that state employees enjoy the same civil rights as all Kansans without creating additional &#8216;protected classes&#8217; as the previous order did,&#8221; Governor Brownback said. &#8220;Any such expansion of &#8216;protected classes&#8217; should be done by the legislature and not through unilateral action. The order also reaffirms our commitment to hiring, mentoring and recognizing veterans and individuals with disabilities.&#8221;

dick

I'm really hoping the Supreme Court applies strict scrutiny to LGBT this year. Its long overdue.

 

[FyreWulff]

He had to have been masturbating with libertarlube while writing that executive order

 

[Aaron Strife]

I have never voiced an opinion on the 2016 election, so I wouldn't venture to guess.

Well there was something about wanting to see meltdowns.

Perhaps this is just a perceived bias on my part as I've usually been one of the more optimistic voices in this thread and my reading of electoral politics have been shot down and ridiculed even when history comes along and proves them right. For example - Wisconsin Senate

Thompson is a lock.

yup, didn't expect that. Thompson is full on cruise

The minute I heard Baldwin was going to run for Senate I thought to myself, "not gonna win". I just felt it. Looks like I was right...

And the minute I heard Thompson was running I knew he would win.

I think you need to accept the fact Thompson is gonna win or at least is winning now.

Final result

Tammy Baldwin 51.4%
Tommy Thompson 45.9%

My point is this thread's political instincts have a tendency to gravitate towards OH MY GOD THE SKY IS FALLING which actually becomes really fucking annoying when any talk of "Hey Democrats are polling well here" is immediately met with a chorus of "IT'S EARLY" as if that in itself means... what exactly? That the final results will absolutely and necessarily flip the fundamentals and polling?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Well Aaron I dont know about your thoughts on the last campaign but pryor was a waste of money, braley and udall imploded & ernst of all people is now a senator.

Pryor was going to get blanched no matter what he did. SD, WV & MT were gone from the get go barring some democratic tsunami.

So your argument does have validity despite "early" projections. Unless it is a Republican romp, mark kirk is objectively in trouble and is the most likely seat to flip no matter how you feel personally about him. Ditto for toomey and johnson. We knew this going back to 2011 by the nature of a larger electoral presidential turnout.

 

[Metaphoreus]

Its early like Meph said. These polls are going to flip flop all cycle long leading up right on election day 2016. That's why I feel saying it will be a tight election is more in line with reality than suggesting a blow out.

Is that an allusion to Mephistopheles?

Because I'm OK with that.

Well there was something about wanting to see meltdowns.

. . .

My point is this thread's political instincts have a tendency to gravitate towards OH MY GOD THE SKY IS FALLING which actually becomes really fucking annoying when any talk of "Hey Democrats are polling well here" is immediately met with a chorus of "IT'S EARLY" as if that in itself means... what exactly? That the final results will absolutely and necessarily flip the fundamentals and polling?

I won't speak for others, but when I say, "It's early," I mean, "It's early." I don't mean, "The opposite of what you think is true." A lot can change over the course of 20 months, meaning that the results of the election can only be guessed at this far in advance.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Well Aaron I dont know about your thoughts on the last campaign but pryor was a waste of money, braley and udall imploded & ernst of all people is now a senator.

Pryor was going to get blanched no matter what he did. SD, WV & MT were gone from the get go barring some democratic tsunami.

So your argument does have validity despite "early" projections. Unless it is a Republican romp, mark kirk is objectively in trouble and is the most likely seat to flip no matter how you feel personally about him. Ditto for toomey and johnson. We knew this going back to 2011 by the nature of a larger electoral presidential turnout.

LA, GA, KY, and AR proved to be far less competitive than projected.

Election night 2014 would have been less dour if Udall, Hagan and Begich (who all lost by about 2 points) managed to hold on... but for Democrats to keep the majority Braley would have needed to not fuck up or Kansas would have needed to stay competitive. That moved away from us pretty quickly in the last week or so.

Incidentally the polling averages were once again wrong in two states - Hagan and Orman were leading the polls.

I won't speak for others, but when I say, "It's early," I mean, "It's early." I don't mean, "The opposite of what you think is true." A lot can change over the course of 20 months, meaning that the results of the election can only be guessed at this far in advance.

There's an implication though. There is a difference between "It's early, but" and "But it's early!"

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/...-that-the-Obamacare-law-suit-is-full-of-holes

 

[RustyNails]

"photographer"

I'm straight, but that guy is too fine specimen of human male kind.

It's only a matter of time.

Edit: PD linking to kos? what has the world come to

 

[eBay Huckster]

so is there any indication of when a decision's coming re: DeBoer v. Snyder?

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Jon Stewart is retiring from the Daily Show later this year.

 

[Grexeno]

The 2016 election is going to blow now.

It is going to blow so hard. Please save us, someone, ANYONE

 

[WayneMorse]

Jon Stewart is retiring from the Daily Show later this year.

End of an era in politics to be honest.

 

[Mike M]

I genuinely wonder if Colbert and Stewart's absence will affect the elections in any measurable fashion.

 

[benjipwns]

It's early yet, but PPP finds Toomey, Kirk, Johnson and Portman vulnerable in 2016 based on the recent actions involving DHS funding and immigration.

http://action.seiu.org/page/-/ImmigrationPollsMemo Feb2015.pdf

Low approval ratings, high approval for Obama's immigration policy.

And remember just knocking off those four would tie the Senate - and Democrats still have NC, FL, NH and AZ as pickup opportunities.

Would like to see the wording of the questions the SEIU and Alliance for Citizenship wanted polled."Obama's immigration policy" doesn't mean anything in and of itself.

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/...-that-the-Obamacare-law-suit-is-full-of-holes

It's pretty clear what Congress' intent here was, it depends on whether the Court takes that into consideration. IIRC the plaintiffs are trying to argue Congress *intended* for the exchanges to only be operated at the state level, right? If they're arguing on those grounds they'll lose.

I think Roberts and maybe Kennedy will side with the liberals.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I genuinely wonder if Colbert and Stewart's absence will affect the elections in any measurable fashion.

0%

 

[benjipwns]

IIRC the plaintiffs are trying to argue Congress *intended* for the exchanges to only be operated at the state level, right?

No, just that subsidies were only to go to state run exchanges.

 

[B-Dubs]

Jon Stewart is retiring from the Daily Show later this year.

I am going to go cry now...I'm going to go cry a lot...

 

[HylianTom]

I am going to go cry now...I'm going to go cry a lot...

I'm just quietly rocking here in the corner, saying, "Colbert in September, Colbert in September.."

It won't be the same, but I can hope, right?

 

[Aaron Strife]

No, just that subsidies were only to go to state run exchanges.

Right. Either way.

 

[Metaphoreus]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/...-that-the-Obamacare-law-suit-is-full-of-holes

Bagley's theory is funny. "When the staffer said 'no,' he meant 'yes.' Therefore the plaintiffs loose!!!1!"

 

[Poodlestrike]

Jon Stewart is retiring from the Daily Show later this year.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-

 

[ivysaur12]

lol in that Politco article, it mentions Schock is eying a statewide position. Where? How?

 

[Aaron Strife]

lol in that Politco article, it mentions Schock is eying a statewide position. Where? How?

Primary Mark Kirk, Illinois needs a more fabulous senator

 

[benjipwns]

lol in that Politco article, it mentions Schock is eying a statewide position. Where? How?

Schock vs. Dick (Durbin)

 

[ivysaur12]

Schock vs. Dick (Durbin)

This is good.

Spoiler

I more meant in terms of… why would he subject himself to a statewide office when he has so many Jonathons in his closet? Seems like an implosion in the making.

 

[HylianTom]

Schock taking-on Dick, eh?

In this case, he might be biting off more than he can chew. Dick would be tough to beat.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Schock taking-on Dick, eh?

In this case, he might be biting off more than he can chew. Dick would be tough to beat.

he's beaten many a dick's in his day