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[B-Dubs]

If he raises it at all it will not be enough. WFP asked for the right of NYC to determine it's own living wage, separate from Albany, something he's consistently been opposed to.

He can't even support raising taxes on the rich for basic public services, something someone as milquetoast as Obama at least supports in theory.

I read a thing last month about him considering letting NYC have it's minimum wage up to 30% higher than the rest of the state, which if the reports are to be believed would wind up being $13/hr with the rest of the state at $10. Even if he only bumps it to $10, it's still better than what it is now.

I do agree that he isn't nearly left enough, I'd prefer someone much further left. Rich guys aren't going to leave the state, where would they go?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

What are you talking about, people bitch all the time about the cost of elections! San Francisco was going to experiment havign their polls open on Saturday, and it was going to cost $2.4 million to get, at most ~150,000 additional voters (that would've represented about 100% turnout.) $16/vote for the absurdly pie-in-the-sky best case scenario. Then there's the cost of the campaigns, extended voting windows means higher campaign costs, and there's tons of bitching about those costs.

As for other early voting alternatives, I'm fine with them, I just don't think officials should rely on them as much as the actual Election Day. I think treating Election Day as a kind of a "flag day" is better from a marketing perspective to get everyone to do a particular thing, otherwise may become this chore that people keep putting off until all of the sudden they realize they've procrastinated too long.

Ah, makes more sense.

Well, I'd federalize the costs too. Rich people since they're buying the elections can pay for the polling stations too.

 

[Oblivion]

So who's going to make the official thread tomorrow?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Well I have to be up early and am gonna be working all day

While we may lose the senate, I'm hoping for some good news here in FL.

 

[Aaron Strife]

He'd have to win election day votes by a pretty wide margin though. Ehh...my rock hard confidence has kind of cracked here. I bet someone Udall would win by 2-4 points.

Election day voting will most likely be heavily Democratic... don't worry I think you'll win your bet.

I just hope you don't win you know, that other one.

How long is the avatar for btw? Let's say 3 months? I don't really care how long it is so if you want it longer/shorter that's fine

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't think those numbers are terrible for Udall, especially because the Dem counties have been a lot slower to process their votes. It'll be very close, regardless.

And I have no idea how things are going in Iowa. Aaron?

 

[neurosisxeno]

I don't think those numbers are terrible for Udall, especially because the Dem counties have been a lot slower to process their votes. It'll be very close, regardless.

And I have no idea how things are going in Iowa. Aaron?

Udall will be fine. The polls out of Colorado are always hot garbage. Last I heard in Iowa Ernst was up but within the MoE. It's close to say the least.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Early vote looks about the same in Iowa as it has. Democrats and Republicans both greatly exceeded the early vote in 2010, but most polling has had Braley winning big among early voters, suggesting Democrats' targeting of unaffiliated (but left-leaning) voters has paid off. It's also been said that a bigger chunk of early Dem/Ind voters were people who didn't show up at all in 2010, whereas Republicans have simply gotten people who were going to vote anyway to vote early.

Historically Democrats have romped early voting while Republicans had a bigger edge on election day itself, we might see more of an equilibrium this year - especially since the race is more or less tied.

 

[theprodigy]

out of all the states where the Republicans have a polling advantage Colorado is easily the one that I'm most confident in lol

 

[ivysaur12]

Udall will be fine. The polls out of Colorado are always hot garbage. Last I heard in Iowa Ernst was up but within the MoE. It's close to say the least.

I'm not talking about the polls -- we've already gotten early voting responses from CO and IA, among others.

 

[Wilsongt]

...Texas...

http://thinkprogress.org/lgbt/2014/11/03/3587817/i-stand-sunday-anti-lgbt-rally/

Sunday evening, some of the most prominent organizations that work against LGBT equality joined together in Houston, Texas to rally in defense of “religious freedom.” The event, called “I Stand Sunday,” was hosted by Grace Community Church, whose pastor, Steve Riggle, was one of the five pastors originally subpoenaed for his role in challenging the LGBT-inclusive Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO).

 

[thepotatoman]

2014 Monday November 3
32.2% D - 39.7% R
7.5 pt R gap

2010 final (1.7 pt D victory)
33.0% D - 39.8% R
6.8 pt R gap.

2010 Monday November 2
34.6% D - 40.7% R
6.1 pt R gap

2010 Independent split from CNN Exit Poll
53% D - 37% R
15 pt D gap

2014 independent split of RCP eligible polls with crosstabs
Quinnipac 43% D - 36% R, PPP 46% D - 37% R, Survey USA 46% D - 37% R, Marist 44% D - 41% R
7 pt average D gap

Updated the 2014 early vote number. Honestly not looking great, as I would expect Gardner to currently be ahead in early votes cast given those numbers. Udall up by like half a percent at absolute most.

Really, really need a good election day turnout to feel good about that race. I don't think Udall can settle for the exact same party composition as 2010, as I suspect Gardner will do better with Independents and Republicans than Buck did, both from polling and just general observation of the campaigns themselves.

 

[ivysaur12]

Updated the 2014 early vote number. Honestly not looking great, as I would expect Gardner to currently be ahead in early votes cast given those numbers. Udall up by like half a percent at absolute most.

Really, really need a good election day turnout to feel good about that race. I don't think Udall can settle for the exact same party composition as 2010, as I suspect Gardner will do better with Independents and Republicans than Buck did, both from polling and just general observation of the campaigns themselves.

Yeah, but it looks like Boulder and Denver still haven't fully processed what they've received yet at the same speed as the smaller counties. If that pushes the margins down to the lower 7s, he's in a better position.

Also, on Sunday I saw cross tabs for voters who hadn't voted in 2010 versus those that hadn't. Have you been those updated for today? That would be helpful to see if the bases are just having their loyal voters spread out.

 

[thepotatoman]

Yeah, but it looks like Boulder and Denver still haven't fully processed what they've received yet at the same speed as the smaller counties. If that pushes the margins down to the lower 7s, he's in a better position.

Also, on Sunday I saw cross tabs for voters who hadn't voted in 2010 versus those that hadn't. Have you been those updated for today? That would be helpful to see if the bases are just having their loyal voters spread out.

Yeah, that new voter statistic maybe interesting now that I think about it. If most of those Rs who already voted also voted in 2010, it's possible those votes simply shifted time frames.

Now would be the time for those D's and I's who did vote in 2010 but didn't vote in 2014 yet to come out, if they're going to come out. I just don't know if they will.

 

[Black Mamba]

Stop bothering with the early returns. You're trying to find silver linings.

Just sit back and wait for the official results. That's all that matters now.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yeah, that new voter statistic maybe interesting now that I think about it. If most of those Rs who already voted also voted in 2010, it's possible those votes simply shifted time frames.

Now would be the time for those D's and I's who did vote in 2010 but didn't vote in 2014 yet to come out, if they're going to come out. I just don't know if they will.

They could be new voters, too. Or not. But given the change of Colorado's voting pattern, that seems to be the most important statistic.

Through Sunday morning, Republicans were leading Democrats by 2.6% of voters who hadn't voted in 2010. However, Independents far outpaced both, above Republicans by 4.2%.

We've seen the race shift since then towards more Democrats turning in their ballots (and we still are behind on Denver and Boulder) but (so far?) there hasn't been anymore information on who voted when and whatsitall.

Let me math.

Stop bothering with the early returns. You're trying to find silver linings.

Just sit back and wait for the official results. That's all that matters now.

Well, I have nothing else to do, and given Colorado's new voting pattern, this is the best look at what's happening yet. It gives a snapshot into how the night will go.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Also keep in mind there isn't really an "early vote" in CO per se since it's all done by mail now. Comparing it to 2010 in this instance isn't entirely apples to apples.

It's expected that there are many votes still outstanding and turnout will exceed 2mil, which would be good for Udall.

 

[EatinOlives]

Lovely living in Texas. Voting for Yet Another Republican Governor, or Yet Another Completely Unprepared Democrat.

This is my first ever election I'm voting on since I got my citizenship last year. I wished I lived in a swing state to actually make it count but w/e, at least I'm happy I can finally vote.

 

[ivysaur12]

Also keep in mind there isn't really an "early vote" in CO per se since it's all done by mail now. Comparing it to 2010 in this instance isn't entirely apples to apples.

It's expected that there are many votes still outstanding and turnout will exceed 2mil, which would be good for Udall.

The turnout definitely looks like it could exceed 2 million.

Either way, it's not going to be a R+2.5 race, which could be a good sign for other tight races, like Braley, Begich, and Orman. Or not.

 

[kehs]

Why isn't there bigger voting presence on the main page of the OT?

Either way you go, there should encouragement for it. Information, stickies, just even a "go fucking vote thread, instead of how the mcrib is made.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Why isn't there bigger voting presence on the main page of the OT?

Either way you go, there should encouragement for it. Information, stickies, just even a "go fucking vote thread, instead of how the mcrib is made.

Why bother, every reply is going to be people saying "why bother"

 

[kehs]

Why bother, every reply is going to be people saying "why bother"

The replies aren't the purpose, it's the information that matters.

The discussion is just the spectacle.

 

[Black Republican]

Enjoy your 50-50 senate USA.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Enjoy your 50-50 senate USA.

I'd love a 50-50 senate. For the entertainment and Joe Biden.

 

[Aaron Strife]

50-50 Senate would be the best and also the funniest

One because Republicans would lose their fucking shit, two because Uncle Joe

And three, if Orman was the deciding vote and Republicans conceded the majority essentially by fucking up Kansas... refer back to One

 

[Chris R]

Enjoy your 50-50 senate USA.

Hahahahahahahah

It's gonna be 52 R seats, at least.

Fucking Romney was here today pushing Sullivan over Begich. Best part? Murkowski was stumping with them but I bet her ass hits the curb in two years so they can push a harder R into the seat.

 

[Black Republican]

if Pat Roberts loses his seat, who will Orman caucus with?

 

[Aaron Strife]

if Pat Roberts loses his seat, who will Orman caucus with?

He's being coy about it. He said if one party is clearly in the majority he'll caucus with them but won't support Reid or McConnell as majority leader.

Unless Rs take a huge majority I don't think he'll caucus with them though.

 

[B-Dubs]

Enjoy your 50-50 senate USA.

That would be the greatest thing ever, we'd see so much more of Uncle Joe. Oh please great election gods, grant us this wish! I'll sacrifice a ballot box...

 

[Black Republican]

Kansas is probably the only one im really interested in because of the senate race and lol Brownback, the former moderate state senators/reps who lost their seat 2 years ago are gonna have a field day with this.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Fucking Romney was here today pushing Sullivan over Begich. Best part? Murkowski was stumping with them but I bet her ass hits the curb in two years so they can push a harder R into the seat.

Further proof there's no such thing as a "moderate" Republican anymore.

 

[Black Republican]

Hahahahahahahah

It's gonna be 52 R seats, at least.

Fucking Romney was here today pushing Sullivan over Begich. Best part? Murkowski was stumping with them but I bet her ass hits the curb in two years so they can push a harder R into the seat.

funny how Begich was one of the few dems who voted against the background checks and still gonna lose by a decent amount,

oh well

 

[Diablos]

It's over.

I really don't know what the implications of the GOP running both chambers will be now. They've proven consistently they really don't care about governing/enacting sound policy but being obstructionist trolls who want to slash and burn everything. Winning back the Senate is only going to stroke their egos even more; I don't believe guys like Portman out there saying it will force more Republicans to be willing to compromise on stuff. I don't believe it for one second.

Everything will be on the line, all the time.

 

[Coriolanus]

It's over.

I really don't know what the implications of the GOP running both chambers will be now.

Obama will just have to veto a truckload more stuff. Congress will still do nearly nothing. Reps will keep complaining that he's a dictator.

Nearly nothing will change.

I just wanna see if they'll try another government shutdown.

 

[Particle Physicist]

So I am looking at the ballot measures here in Michigan since I haven't had a chance to do it earlier.

Title: Keep Michigan Wolves Protected

Description:
Authorizes the estaishment of the first open hunting season for wolves
Authorizes the Natural Resources Commission to add certain animals to the list of game species.


Am I misunderstanding this or does voting yes for the measure do the exact opposite of the title?

 

[Diablos]

I just wanna see if they'll try another government shutdown.

Safest bet in the world.

Anyway, I voted. I really wish Toomey was up for re-election this year. Corbett would have dragged him into the abyss.

+1 Wolf. This is probably going to be a bad day for Dems nationally, but here in Pennsylvania everyone has a smile on their face for a different reason.

 

[adg1034]

So I am looking at the ballot measures here in Michigan since I haven't had a chance to do it earlier.

Title: Keep Michigan Wolves Protected

Description:
Authorizes the estaishment of the first open hunting season for wolves
Authorizes the Natural Resources Commission to add certain animals to the list of game species.


Am I misunderstanding this or does voting yes for the measure do the exact opposite of the title?

No, sounds like you're about right. Crafty ballot measure language...

 

[NobleXenon]

Lise Murkowski & Susan Collins should just switch from R to I and caucus with Democrats.

 

[ivysaur12]

Couldn't sleep. Must vote. Hour and a half till polls open.

 

[Diablos]

Lise Murkowski & Susan Collins should just switch from R to I and caucus with Democrats.

Fantasy Senate.

It'll never happen.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Lise Murkowski & Susan Collins should just switch from R to I and caucus with Democrats.

When Susan retires that's a good pickup chance for dems.

 

[Maninthemirror]

This is my first post in poligaf in a year....


I find American's apathy towards mid terms disturbing.

I see Presidential elections are like getting a new watch and mid terms as getting the internal machinery replaced of the watch, it is much more significant on many occasions than Americans realise.

It was in the 1994 election with Newt that the GOP moved from a centrist party to a center right party and 2010 allowed Tea Party to make GOP move from a center right party to a right party.

 

[Wilsongt]

I won't have a chance to get liqour for the results tonight. I'm going in sober. D:

 

[NYCmetsfan]

This is my first post in poligaf in a year....


I find American's apathy towards mid terms disturbing.

I see Presidential elections are like getting a new watch and mid terms as getting the internal machinery replaced of the watch, it is much more significant on many occasions than Americans realise.

It was in the 1994 election with Newt that the GOP moved from a centrist party to a center right party and 2010 allowed Tea Party to make GOP move from a center right party to a right party.

What other countries have mid terms?

 

[Maninthemirror]

What other countries have mid terms?

it was an inclusive statement not an exceptional one

 

[kingkitty]

I got my Fox News.

I got my internets.

I'm good to go.

 

[Particle Physicist]

No, sounds like you're about right. Crafty ballot measure language...

Seems borderline illegal. I need to look up all the other measures to make sure they mean what I think they mean. :/

 

[ivysaur12]

Thread up in the OT

 

[Squirrel Killer]

I'd love a 50-50 senate. For the entertainment and Joe Biden.

Isn't 50-50 impossible with Orman's position that he'll caucus with the majority party, whichever it is? Closest it could be before he decides is 50-49 (one way or the other,) which would mean he'd caucus with the 50 side, making it 51-49.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Leaning toward a 51 D/I - 49 R Senate (with 48 as the worst case and 53 as the absolute best case).

Also leaning toward D/I +6 in gubernatorial elections.

And as always, fuck the House.