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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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Z

Zona

Member
That's my votes in. In NYS you fill out a paper ballot which is then scanned into a machine that counts the votes, and saves the paper ballots. The machines also give a count of the number of people who have used them. For the machine I used, one of four at the polling location, I was voter number *Drumroll* 134... in a town of 40k.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Best photo bomb ever

B1nWQHDCYAA9kfq.jpg
Click to expand...
Elliott Gould?
 
G

Grym

Member
Just wanted to chime in to say I voted. Now I can complain when nothing happens over the next decade, right? Or do I have to keep voting to do that?

Regardless of the result today, we're just looking at more gridlock but a veto pen will be more involved more than the last few years.

I vote in every election so I will continue to complain ;p
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
Averon said:
Actually, the most depression thing about tonight would be the GOP making further inroads in stats legislatures.

It is there where those ridiculous abortion laws and regressive voter suppression laws are coming from. Dems really need to start putting more focus on fighting for control of state governments.

Expect more and more regressive voting laws to pop-up in he run up to 2016.
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My county of 75,000 has 1 Dem in any government position, a county judge. The party machine selects who it wants to run for primaries years in advance, so there's little to no competition in any election. You can vote for the GOP handpicked and groomed candidate or no one at all. It's not fun to have no choice.

Even at the state level, we can pick a Republican or Libertarian. That was my choice today.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
NihonTiger90 said:
My county of 75,000 has 1 Dem in any government position, a county judge. The party machine selects who it wants to run for primaries years in advance, so there's little to no competition in any election. You can vote for the GOP handpicked and groomed candidate or no one at all. It's not fun to have no choice.

Even at the state level, we can pick a Republican or Libertarian. That was my choice today.
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Maybe those kids from Hong Kong will teach you guys how to organize in protest.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
The worst decision Obama has made is waiting for mid terms to be over for executive action on immigration

Really, the worst fucking decision ever.

Not sure what kind of extreme idiocy drove WH to do that
 
B

Bel Marduk

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Any false rays of hope from lines, voting numbers till now?
Click to expand...

No voting numbers yet.. but anecdotally, I was in a doctor's office with some old and elderly people and they all expressed how disgusted they were by Rick Scott.. and I would think the old and retired would be his base!
(Florida)
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Niiiice..

"The Tea Party has completely...ruined the Republican Party": Jon Huntsman Sr.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/-the-...lican-party---jon-huntsman-sr--210121174.html
If the polls hold, 2014 should be a banner year for Republicans. But Jon Hunstman Sr., a self-described "lifelong Republican" and former special assistant to President Richard Nixon, is looking ahead with concern about the Grand Old Party's 2016 prospects.

"The Tea Party has completely captivated and ruined the Republican Party today and they'll show this in 2016," says Hunstman, author of Barefoot to Billionaire. "Unless a Jeb Bush comes in or John Huntsman Jr., the Republicans don't have a prayer."

..

The patriarch of the Huntsman family had a more terse reply when asked whether a 'moderate' Republican like Huntsman Jr. can win his party's nomination: "Of course not," he says.

As for Jeb Bush, Huntsman says he is "very bright and able" and "would represent the Republican party very well. But I doubt he'll be embraced too heavily by the Tea Party gang."

..

Asked about a hypothetical matchup between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, Huntsman says he "not a great handicapper" but thinks Hillary "would be a fine President."
Click to expand...

And the FreeRepublic reaction thread..
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3223067/posts

Regardless of what happens tonight, watching the fight over the heart & soul of the Republican Party is going to be captivating.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Hopium from Sam Wang for those who need it:

Despite media certitude, we do not know who will win the Senate. In The New Yorker, I explain.

From 2004 to 2012, only thirteen Senate races have had margins of less than three percentage points in the week before the election. Of these, four were won by the trailing candidate. One more, the Florida 2004 race, was tied in the polls, and was eventually won by the Republican, Mel Martinez, by 2 percentage points. Scoring that one as half correct, the overall rate of wins by a front-runner is 65%, a bit better than chance.

In light of that, the probability that all six close Senate races (AK, CO, IA, KS, NH, and NC) will be won by the candidate in the lead is only 7%. A wrong call is almost inevitable. We should not be surprised to see one to three races to be won by the candidate who trails this morning. Because of this, the final outcome becomes a game of guess-the-beans-in-the-jar.
Click to expand...
 
K

KingK

Member
I voted with an absentee ballot last week. I'm from a conservative district in Indiana, so there was nothing interesting to vote for at all. There were only like 3 races where there was even a challenger to the Republican, and none of them are going to be at all close. I've voted in every election since I've been able to though, so I did it anyway.

At least in 2010 I had Joe Donnelly to vote for in the House who barely won, and then 2012 I had Donnelly for Senate and Obama to vote for. This year it doesn't really feel like any of my votes really matter since all of the outcomes are pretty certain, but meh. I refuse to be one of those lazy young people who doesn't show up for the midterms that I always complain about.

theprodigy said:
Now Diablos and co will just Diablos over NH/NC lol
Click to expand...

Diablos hasn't actually been Diablosing that much this election from what I've seen.

edit: My final prediction is a 50/50 senate. Udall wins, Hagan wins, Orman wins and caucuses with Dems. One of Braley or Nunn win.

Although so many of these races are basically a coin toss at this point that anything from Dems controlling 47 seats to 53 seats is feasible.
 
A

Atenhaus

Member
T

Teggy

Member
I'm kind of wondering what the establishment republican reaction will be to Charlie Baker should he win. Guy probably couldn't get invited to the national convention, much less get on the ticket.
 
A

Armoured Priest

Member
Black Mamba said:
Wrong. Funniest would be McConnell losing and it being a 50/50 tie.

That is 100000000000 times funnier than your scenario.
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If this happened, I would be sorely tempted to temporarily disrupt the peace that is maintained with my dad by bying a bottle of clear liqour, changing the label to "Republican Tears" and emulating the 2012 Obama election gif by drinking it in front of him.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
thepotatoman said:
Election day 2014 - Mid day
32.1% D - 39.4% R
7.3 pt R gap

2014 Monday November 3
32.2% D - 39.7% R
7.5 pt R gap

2010 final (1.7 pt D victory)
33.0% D - 39.8% R
6.8 pt R gap.

2010 Monday November 2
34.6% D - 40.7% R
6.1 pt R gap

2010 Independent split from CNN Exit Poll
53% D - 37% R
15 pt D gap

2014 independent split of RCP eligible polls with crosstabs
Quinnipac 43% D - 36% R, PPP 46% D - 37% R, Survey USA 46% D - 37% R, Marist 44% D - 41% R
7 pt average D gap
Click to expand...
Another Colorado update with 102,993 ballots added to the mix. Moving in the right direction at least. Also note I don't add Independent percentages to the mix as it would make things too cluttered, but the R to I+D turnout gap matters too which is already doing better now than at any point in 2010 and I expect will rise as the day goes on.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Black Mamba said:
And to bring down some hopium, good article on why the early voting results which may seem to favor Dems probably don't.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/unskewed-polls-early-voting-edition/

Key here: pollsters already take into account early voters and early vote data data isn't disagreeing with them
Click to expand...

Democratic pollsters who have shown the race close to a tie have modeled an electorate in which registered Republicans make up 5 percentage points more of the electorate than registered Democrats. The two public pollsters, Marist College and Monmouth University, who released data on party registration gave Republicans a 7 percentage point registration advantage on average.
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Yeah, and the SurveyUSA poll with Gardner up two had only a 3 percent republican registration advantage. Poll weighing is borked here. While their final results may or maynot be right, I can say with 100% certainty their cross tabs will have some pretty huge errors. There's absolutely no rhyme or reason to them.

I would agree a registration gap in the mid 5s might be a good target, or maybe a mid 6 pt gap with a huge increase in Independents, but you can't just cherry pick data like that when the data is all over the place. It's like saying Hispanic turnout doesn't matter because two polls have them at a statistical tie (which there are actually numerous polls saying that). Believe me, i tried to get some sort of estimated party turnout data from pro gardner and pro-udall polls, but they're just all over the place.

That's why I ended up picking just the straight up independent split to figure out about how the electorate changed. That hasn't seen near as much noise poll to poll, and doesn't rely near as much on the poll weighing which is going to drastically change from pollster to pollster depending on which demographics they want to focus on weighing the polls for. Unless you're pew, I don't think anyone really knows how to weigh something so that every cross tab is going to be accurate, at least until you get to exit polls where you know the final result and turnout and can work backwards from there. I'm not trying to paint a picture one way or the other here, just trying to analyze the data, and that's the data that is available and relevant as far as I can tell.

Harry Enten is a crappy data analyst. While I do really trust Nate Silver at least tries to look at all data objectively, a lot of these other 538 writers have a narrative to tell and are clearly cherry picking data to prove it.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
thepotatoman said:
Yeah, and the SurveyUSA poll with Gardner up two had only a 3 percent republican registration advantage. Poll weighing is borked here. While their final results may or maynot be right, I can say with 100% certainty their cross tabs will have some pretty huge errors. There's absolutely no rhyme or reason to them.

I would agree a registration gap in the mid 5s might be a good target, or maybe a mid 6 pt gap with a huge increase in Independents, but you can't just cherry pick data like that when the data is all over the place. It's like saying Hispanic turnout doesn't matter because two polls have them at a statistical tie (which there are actually numerous polls saying that). Believe me, i tried to get some sort of estimated party turnout data from pro gardner and pro-udall polls, but they're just all over the place.

Thats why I ended up picking just the straight up independent average to figure out about how the electorate changed. That hasn't seen near as much noise poll to poll, and doesn't rely near as much on the poll wieghing which is going to drastically change from pollster to pollster depending on which demographics they want to focus on wieghing the polls for. Unless you're pew, I don't think anyone really knows how to weigh something so that every cross tab is going to be accurate, at least until you get to exit polls where you know the final result and turnout and can work backwards from there. I'm not trying to paint a picture one way or the other here, just trying to analyze the data, and that's the data that is available and relevant as far as I can tell.

Harry Enten is a crappy data analyst. While I do really trust Nate Silver at least tries to look at all data objectively, a lot of these other 538 writers have a narrative to tell and are clearly cherry picking data to prove it.
Click to expand...

This was more about me telling people to stop worrying about early returns (as I did yesterday) and just wait for actual official vote counts.

Parsing through the data is not very useful in reality (which you seem to agree with).
 
R

Retro

Member
Voted. Won't matter much since my state (Delaware) is small and pretty hard blue, but on the local level it was important. Especially since slower lower Delaware is always pushing things right. It seems like because we're below the Mason-Dixon line they like to pretend to be part of the South. Luckily, unless they give chickens the vote, the two lower counties of the state will always get outweighed by good ol' New Castle County.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Please everyone, don't overreact to the early exit polling or exits polls at all, really.

Just watch the real results. No Karl Rove moments, please. Well, unless it's Karl Rove.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Black Mamba said:
This was more about me telling people to stop worrying about early returns (as I did yesterday) and just wait for actual official vote counts.

Parsing through the data is not very useful in reality (which you seem to agree with).
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It's not useless. That's not what I'm arguing. The data he chose to use is useless in general and shouldn't be used like that. Basically he's using the noise, not the signal. But there is actual information you can get from early voting statistics if you try to look at it objectively.

Maybe some people don't want to know anything until the final results come in, but I want to know which way things are trending, and early voting is a piece of that puzzle. Clearly there's others like me because there's talk everywhere about which way people think races will end up. Hell, thats basically 100% the reason why the 538 site even exists in the first place.

Black Mamba said:
Please everyone, don't overreact to the early exit polling or exits polls at all, really.

Just watch the real results. No Karl Rove moments, please. Well, unless it's Karl Rove.
Click to expand...

Now that I can agree with. Exit polls that actually work backwards from the election results are good, but early exit polls before the results are known are terrible. Early exit polls are basically just normal polls but with absolutely no time to do the work to properly weigh anything.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
thepotatoman said:
It's not useless. That's not what I'm arguing. The data he chose to use is useless in general and shouldn't be used like that. Basically he's using the noise, not the signal. But there is actual information you can get from early voting statistics if you try to look at it objectively.

Maybe some people don't want to know anything until the final results come in, but I want to know which way things are trending, and early voting is a piece of that puzzle. Clearly there's others like me because there's talk everywhere about which way people think races will end up. Hell, thats basically 100% the reason why the 538 site even exists in the first place.
Click to expand...

But we don't know if the early voting trends matter because we don't know if we're shifting early votes from election day voting or not. We don't know if non-2010 voters matter. Maybe those are due to transplants who voted in their previous state, etc.

I obviously think the polling discussion stuff is useful and fun but the reality is we don't know what early voting is actually telling us, at least with any real precision.

We can look back after the vote and figure things out but right now trying to gauge anything from the data seems fruitless.

Are there exit polls already?
Click to expand...

I believe the media has gotten ahold of some, yes.


Also, any nation-wise exit polling is useless for the battleground states. Nobody cares if turnout is low in California because Dems will easily sweep and it will affect numbers (just one of numerous examples).
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Black Mamba said:
But we don't know if the early voting trends matter because we don't know if we're shifting early votes from election day voting or not. We don't know if non-2010 voters matter. Maybe those are due to transplants who voted in their previous state, etc.

I obviously think the polling discussion stuff is useful and fun but the reality is we don't know what early voting is actually telling us, at least with any real precision.

We can look back after the vote and figure things out but right now trying to gauge anything from the data seems fruitless.
Click to expand...
I agree the new voter statistics are hard to read into, but that's different from the overall statistics of what the overall turnout is looking like.

Think of it this way. There's already a knowledge that every poll wlil have a good chance of being wrong by 1 or 2 points just from your average statistical error, but we typically accept it wont be off by 5 or 10 points most of the time.

Here we are starting with a hard data point of 100% accurate data, which might move in certain ways as time goes on but likely wont explode hugely in either direction in a short amount of time. The margin of error is time, and as time runs out, that margin of error gets smaller.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
That data is accurate, but I just don't think it's worth paying too much attention.

How Independents break will determine the election. Knowing the R-D breakdown of votes so far isn't enough.
 
J

Jonm1010

Banned
Just got out of work and swung by my house to grab my voter registration card and realized one of the letters in my first name is spelt wrong. Am I screwed? I live in Louisiana about to go to a baptist church to vote with Dem on my registration. Am I about to get turned away?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Kevitivity said:
Something tells me MSNBC is going to be more entertaining than usual tonight.
Click to expand...

Probably not, minus Chris Matthews. I think they're pretty well expecting the GOP to win unlike Fox News which seemed to get blindsided in 2012 despite it being as obvious as water being wet.

Fox will be more hilarious as they pronounce a giant shift right for conservatism in the election (even though they barely win in big red states and lose a lot of governorship).
 
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