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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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Glad they didn't find out how the state legislative races are going.

I checked when I was on break at work and I believe it was mostly a Democratic sweep with the exception of Lt. Governor going to R-Phil Scott--VTers like having a Gov and Lt. Gov who oppose each other to give the illusion of balance. As an aside, I was blown away by the massive rise on Libertarian candidates on the VT ballot. I would say it was 50% Dems, 25% Republicans, and 25% Libertarians.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
2008: The Republican Party is dead
2010: The Democratic Party is dead
2012: The Republican Party is dead
2014: The Democratic Party is dead
 

Wilsongt

Member
Thom fucking Tillis won. Holy shit.

Bad news for Kay Hagan.

Edit:

I look forward to anti-gay, religious freedom, anti-ACA rhetoric in the coming weeks. My popcorn is ready.
 

Jooney

Member
I don't know how you guys are going to deal with the next big budget fight comes along.

Grand Bargains and Very Serious People(TM) will be making a comeback.
 
What shit? People participating in the democratic process to elect the candidates they want to represent them?

Shouldn't we be celebrating? The people have spoken, the general will is known!

I know you're being facetious but god damn this issue riles me up so much. There are no reasonable grounds to oppose a federal holiday for elections (which is such a pathetically low bar given the host of other problems our voting process has).

midtermTurnout.png
 

Diablos

Member
I don't know how you guys are going to deal with the next big budget fight comes along.

Grand Bargains and Very Serious People(TM) will be making a comeback.
I think Obamacare is in big trouble. This is like the sequel to 2010. If the GOP shuts down the Government and won't reopen it until Obamacare is repealed/gutted I don't think Obama will have any political capital to spare. He could use unconventional options to reopen the Government but that would just hurt Dems even more heading into 2016.

Not to mention if the SCOTUS allows stuff like Halbig to keep going, the subsidies could get nuked -- his signature achievement is getting swarmed from all over the place.

Again, anyone who thinks Hillary will have it easy in 2016 is mistaken. This election is a big, big deal -- probably the best night for the GOP since 2004.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I think Obamacare is in big trouble. This is like the sequel to 2010. If the GOP shuts down the Government and won't reopen it until Obamacare is repealed/gutted I don't think Obama will have any political capital to spare. He could use unconventional options to reopen the Government but that would just hurt Dems even more heading into 2016.

Not to mention if the SCOTUS allows stuff like Halbig to keep going, the subsidies could get nuked -- his signature achievement is getting swarmed from all over the place.

Again, anyone who thinks Hillary will have it easy in 2016 is mistaken. This election is a big, big deal -- probably the best night for the GOP since 2004.

This. Obama needs to suck up his pride and get SOMETHING done. He has to have a good approval rating for Hillary to survive. It wont be a slam dunk for her x(. She needs to expect a house majoity through her first term IF she gets that far. House is impossible till 2020-2022
 
I know you're being facetious but god damn this issue riles me up so much.

midtermTurnout.png

According to the 2010 census, there are roughly 235 million people 18 or older. So 37% of 235 million is 86 million people. Assuming any party needs 51% of the vote to gain control (this is ignoring a lot of variables), then it's safe to assume 44 million Americans, or roughly 19% of the population basically gets to decide who runs most of the country in non presidential years...

*barfs*

And before people yell at me for ignoring a lot of variables, I am completely aware. I'm just looking at very general numbers in order to depress myself.
 
Its going to be a late night boys

Local Measure H - Requiring Certain Golden Gate Park Athletic Fields To Be Kept As Grass With No Artificial Lighting

No is currently leading by 9%!
 

Averon

Member
I'm baffled as to why the Dems didn't run on increasing the minimum wage. A bunch of minimum wage increase initiatives passed ever in this blood red electorate. It would not have saved them from losing the Senate, but it would been better than nothing. It is something that has broad support, and it would have helped energize voters that usually didn't turn out to vote in mid terms.
 
Braley got crushed. Turnout numbers just very low or what?
That and he insulted farmers. He was finished quite awhile ago, as I said.

Dems rely on turnout but the problem of 2010 and 2014 was that the dem base has been hit hardest by this shitty economy and gridlock. Youth, black, and Hispanic unemployment are very high; many single women are struggling; immigration reform constantly put on the backburner, alienating activists. A lot of people have given up. Hagan didn't get the black turnout she needed in multiple areas that have been hit hard economically.

After six years of pain I think people have given up on this president. If republicans were smart they'd move to the middle now, but they probably won't thanks to some extremists winning tonight.
 

Ecotic

Member
One bright side. I don't want Hillary to run. If anything is going to make her decide not to run, it's what happened tonight. Republicans outperformed the polls everywhere. Even if Hillary wins in 2016 there's a probable chance she'll face at least one House of Congress under Republican control. Maybe it's no longer worth it to her.
 

Trey

Member
If anything tonight has made me want to be more aware of national politics. I believe these next few years are going to be crucial formative ones for the direction of politics, and really, the entire country. Technology is not slowing at all, and income disparity only widens.

The allocation of power is at a critical point.

Also, damn, this thread wilted faster than the democrats over the summer.
 

benjipwns

Banned
According to the 2010 census, there are roughly 235 million people 18 or older. So 37% of 235 million is 86 million people. Assuming any party needs 51% of the vote to gain control (this is ignoring a lot of variables), then it's safe to assume 44 million Americans, or roughly 19% of the population basically gets to decide who runs most of the country in non presidential years...
It's not significantly much higher in Presidential years. Only 29.7% of the country voted for Obama's re-election in 2012, that's lower than Bush in 2004 who got 30.5%.

The reason it drops off in the midterms is because we've built up an incredible Cult of the Presidency over the last century.

In 1948, 48 million voted for President, 46.2 million voted for the House; in 1950, 40.4 million voted for the House.

In 1984, 92.6 million voted for President, 82.4 million for the House; in 1986, 59.8 million voted for the House.
 

Averon

Member
Well gang, I'm checking out of politics for a while.

I'll pop in every now and then but goddamn was tonight demoralizing.

Just avoid cable news and sites like Politico. I made the mistake of watching cable news and reading political websites after 2010. It made the misery 10 times worse.

Play some video games, watch the Nintendo direct tomorrow, and enjoy life outside of politics for a few weeks.
 

Averon

Member
One bright side. I don't want Hillary to run. If anything is going to make her decide not to run, it's what happened tonight. Republicans outperformed the polls everywhere. Even if Hillary wins in 2016 there's a probable chance she'll face at least one House of Congress under Republican control. Maybe it's no longer worth it to her.

Hilary was going to deal with a GOP House not matter what happened tonight or in 2016.
 

xnipx

Member
That and he insulted farmers. He was finished quite awhile ago, as I said.

Dems rely on turnout but the problem of 2010 and 2014 was that the dem base has been hit hardest by this shitty economy and gridlock. Youth, black, and Hispanic unemployment are very high; many single women are struggling; immigration reform constantly put on the backburner, alienating activists. A lot of people have given up. Hagan didn't get the black turnout she needed in multiple areas that have been hit hard economically.

After six years of pain I think people have given up on this president. If republicans were smart they'd move to the middle now, but they probably won't thanks to some extremists winning tonight.


If dems were smart they would have run scare ads letting these people know that republican leadership would cut funding to the very programs keeping them from being homeless and motivated them to come out and vote. Run on minimum wage increases. Run on higher corporate taxes. Run on EXPANSION of entitlement programs. Not enough people are scared of what lower taxes and entitlement reform really means.
 
One bright side. I don't want Hillary to run. If anything is going to make her decide not to run, it's what happened tonight. Republicans outperformed the polls everywhere. Even if Hillary wins in 2016 there's a probable chance she'll face at least one House of Congress under Republican control. Maybe it's no longer worth it to her.
She's too ambitious to give up. I think we'll see a revival of centrist Clintonite candidates unfortunately, waiting to ride her coat tails.

The party is in shambles, the Obama era is over. Get ready for Democrat Leadership Council type bullshit again, fellas.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Democrats thought they could use the War on Women playbook again, but it backfired because it was the one play the GOP prepared for.

Except Terri Lynn Land lol
 
It's not significantly much higher in Presidential years. Only 29.7% of the country voted for Obama's re-election in 2012, that's lower than Bush in 2004 who got 30.5%.

The reason it drops off in the midterms is because we've built up an incredible Cult of the Presidency over the last century.

In 1948, 48 million voted for President, 46.2 million voted for the House; in 1950, 40.4 million voted for the House.

In 1984, 92.6 million voted for President, 82.4 million for the House; in 1986, 59.8 million voted for the House.

I think that's pretty signifficant jump.

Bush getting 30.5% means you're getting only 205 million 18+ in 2004. That seems a bit low to me. We added 30 million in 10 years.

Also, a proper analysis would remove illegal immigrants and the felons/incarcerated who cannot vote. Those are significant numbers. Voting age isn't enough of a breakdown.
 

Diablos

Member
She's too ambitious to give up. I think we'll see a revival of centrist Clintonite candidates unfortunately, waiting to ride her coat tails.

The party is in shambles, the Obama era is over. Get ready for DAemocrat Leadership Council type bullshit again, fellas.
Is this our 2006? Meaning, is Hillary going to be John McCain in 2016?

Because to me any election where the next Governor of fucking Maryland is a Republican is a HUGE warning sign.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Sorry, I didn't notice the graph was only of voting age, I used the turnout rate (of eligible voters) * % of popular vote.
 
Is this our 2006? Meaning, is Hillary going to be John McCain in 2016?

Because to me any election where the next Governor of fucking Maryland is a Republican is a HUGE warning sign.

What in gods name does that have to do with anything? Has Maryland never elected a Republican before?
 
It's not significantly much higher in Presidential years. Only 29.7% of the country voted for Obama's re-election in 2012, that's lower than Bush in 2004 who got 30.5%.

Still a decent sized jump, but not nearly as high as it should be

Also, a proper analysis would remove illegal immigrants and the felons/incarcerated who cannot vote. Those are significant numbers. Voting age isn't enough of a breakdown.

Yep. I only chose voting age because it was the easiest number to find and do basic math on it.
 
The problem was the Dems ran away from Obama. They should have ran with him.

He also should have done the immigration executive order.

Instead Dems seem to be apathetic, once again. The Dem Party was dumb.

As I always say, run for something, not against.


They needed to be more forceful about the ACA, about minimum wage, etc. Minimum Wage laws SWEPT the fucking south while the GOP candidate who opposed them won.

I've said it before that our electorate is stupid.


Well, now Reid/Obama need to force through confirmations as much as they can before the new Congress.

I'm most worried for the debt ceiling coming up. And I feel bad for those states that won't expand medicaid.

Rough two years. Sometimes I feel like slapping people for voting the way they do.

Still proud to be in California. Great weather, nightlife, people, and most of all politics. If only Lincoln let the South secede...
 
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