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[eBay Huckster]

So is Bernie gonna beat Hillary in fundraising for Q4? Should start getting some numbers in a few days.

So is Bernie gonna beat Hillary in a single primary outside of New England?

 

[HylianTom]

That's bloody brilliant. 😂

And now I'm in the mood to watch History of the World Part I..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74FWtmSdYDs

 

[Diablos]

The news has been talking about Jeb picking his nose a lot, and I can't help but think we've taken one step closer to being a full-blown Idiocracy.

 

[Tarkus]

I got an email from Trey Gowdy (R-SC) this morning at 3 am. Basically declaring his endorsement for Rubio and asking for campaign donations.

I wanted you to be the first to know why I'm voting for Marco Rubio for President.

This race is not going to be easy. All eyes are on Marco's campaign, and he needs our support right now more than ever. The outcome of this election is going to come down to every dollar donated, which is why your donation is so urgent.

2016 is around the corner. The steps we take today will determine what happens next fall. We cannot afford to waste another second -- we must ensure Marco Rubio becomes our nation's next president.

Sincerely,

Trey Gowdy

P.S. As President, Marco will stand true to all of our conservative values and fight for our beliefs. I look forward to campaigning in Iowa with Marco, and across the country. I hope we will see you out on the campaign trail in the near future. But in the meantime, please stand with Marco and me by making an instant online contribution before NYE!

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

The news has been talking about Jeb picking his nose a lot, and I can't help but think we've taken one step closer to being a full-blown Idiocracy.

Eh, that would have gotten always gotten some play since the advent of television.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

The news has been talking about Jeb picking his nose a lot, and I can't help but think we've taken one step closer to being a full-blown Idiocracy.

Diablos, you have more important things to worry about. Like how Shitsburgh pissed away a wild card spot and you have to hope buffalo helps you by beating the Jets.

That you can Diablos about.

 

[NeoXChaos]

So is Bernie gonna beat Hillary in a single primary outside of New England?

looking at the polls Bernie may only win VT if he fails to win NH. ME and MA show him losing in the recent polls for their March 1st and 6th primary. The rest of New England do not vote until well into April. By that point he's probably out of the race. However I could see him doing well in MN & CO on March 1st.

 

[Maledict]

So is Bernie gonna beat Hillary in fundraising for Q4? Should start getting some numbers in a few days.

Yes, absolutely. That's been on the cards for some time now.

 

[Makai]

ban Makai

I'm traveling and might not be around tomorrow, but I certainly don't want to deprive you of the chance to own up to your foolishness. So, I'm giving you your new face ahead of time. Don't worry, it's nothing mean. I just want to expand my avatar empire.

http://i.imgur.com/FYOuHBY.jpg

 

[Teggy]

It shouldn't surprise me that it takes a special kind of wacko to be spokesperson for Trump, but this woman is crazy. This is the "so what, they're Muslim" woman, and this time she did an interview on cnn wearing a necklace made of bullets.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/katrina-pierson-bullet-necklace-fetus

 

[NihonTiger90]

Watching Trump. His style reminds me of a stand up comedian, just hopping from topic to topic.

I kind of expect to hear, "How about Iran, huh? What's the deal with that?"

Spoiler

Trump/Seinfeld 2016

 

[Owzers]

It shouldn't surprise me that it takes a special kind of wacko to be spokesperson for Trump, but this woman is crazy. This is the "so what, they're Muslim" woman, and this time she did an interview on cnn wearing a necklace made of bullets.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/katrina-pierson-bullet-necklace-fetus

“What good does it do to have a good nuclear triad if you’re afraid to use it?” she asked.

She's perfect.

 

[ivysaur12]

It shouldn't surprise me that it takes a special kind of wacko to be spokesperson for Trump, but this woman is crazy. This is the "so what, they're Muslim" woman, and this time she did an interview on cnn wearing a necklace made of bullets.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/katrina-pierson-bullet-necklace-fetus

You guys need to read this look at when Katrina Pierson ran for congress in 2014:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...trina_pierson_is_the_best_the_grassroots.html

 

[ivysaur12]

would read....??

@SenGillibrand
Honored @Marvel & @espnW turned @clairecmc & me into #SenatorsofSteel for combating campus sexual assault! #impact25

 

[Jack Remington]

looking at the polls Bernie may only win VT if he fails to win NH. ME and MA show him losing in the recent polls for their March 1st and 6th primary. The rest of New England do not vote until well into April. By that point he's probably out of the race. However I could see him doing well in MN & CO on March 1st.

There's only been one CO poll so far, but Hillary was winning it by 20 points or so.

 

[Holmes]

would read....??

Would also read.

 

[ivysaur12]

There's only been one CO poll so far, but Hillary was winning it by 20 points or so.

Bernie has actually been doing well in Utah, but she's still winning in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado (to be fair, there haven't been as many state-wide polls on the Democratic side as I'd like) which are all natural bases of support for Bernie.

The only other state besides Utah that Bernie has a seemingly commanding lead of in is Vermont.

 

[benjipwns]

New Hampshire Union Leader publisher Joe McQuaid responds to Donald Trump’s ‘low-life’ comments and predicts how New Hampshire Republicans are receiving the GOP front-runner’s public image.

JOSEPH MCQUAID: I don't know what Mr. Trump's support is in our state or nationally, for that matter. I think polls are pretty much bunk, and are name recognition, not real substance. It is a crowded field, and I think Iowa, N. H., and South Carolina are going to winnow the field, and all this poll business is going to be history.

Polls debunked again.

 

[NeoXChaos]

There's only been one CO poll so far, but Hillary was winning it by 20 points or so.

so he just wins VT and that's it if NH is a bust or just NH and VT ultimately?

 

[ivysaur12]

so he just wins VT and that's it if NH is a bust or just NH and VT ultimately?

He's lead the last two polls in Utah, albeit by small margins with lots of undecideds, so that could be swayed a lot if Hillary ends up winning Iowa and/or New Hampshire and then sweeping SC, NV, and Super Tuesday.

FAKE EDIT: I guess Utah isn't even doing a Democratic primary, just a caucus.

http://kuer.org/post/utah-democrats-wont-hold-presidential-primary-2016

The Utah Democratic Party says they won’t be holding a presidential primary in 2016. Instead of holding a presidential primary, the Utah Democratic Party has decided to poll its members during their neighborhood caucus meetings in March of 2016.

In the past the legislature has either elected to pay for a special statewide presidential primary or to just hold the primary during the state’s regular date when people vote on statewide and local elections. But the legislature didn’t fund a special primary and the regular primary in 2016 is too late to meet national party requirements for both Republicans and Democrats. That means party leaders will have to decide on their own how to poll their members.

Lauren Littlefield is the executive director of the Utah Democratic Party. She says that decision has left the Democrats in a difficult position.

“We had really looked deeply into running an online presidential primary as part of our neighborhood caucuses in 2016, but after looking at the costs of that, we decided it would be better to spend $100 thousand on turning out voters in the general election, than spending $100 thousand to run an online election for a primary,” she says.

Littlefield says the Democrats prefer a statewide primary because they are usually much better attended than neighborhood caucuses.

Meanwhile, the Utah Republican Party will also be holding a presidential caucus, but in an attempt to involve more people, it will include an online voting component.

 

[NeoXChaos]

He's lead the last two polls in Utah, albeit by small margins with lots of undecideds, so that could be swayed a lot if Hillary ends up winning Iowa and/or New Hampshire and then sweeping SC, NV, and Super Tuesday.

FAKE EDIT: I guess Utah isn't even doing a Democratic primary, just a caucus.

http://kuer.org/post/utah-democrats-wont-hold-presidential-primary-2016

I can't believe that might be the case if NH follows IA. NH loves to vote the opposite of IA. You also have the Trump factor at play that might hurt Bernie in NH.

 

[Wilsongt]

Facebook keeps on giving.

 

[HylianTom]

My co-workers are going to wonder why I'm tearing-up over here.. 😂

 

[AndyD]

Polls debunked again.

I hear it regularly from my conservative friends. No one can believe Trump's lead is real because no one seems to want to be associated with the things he says. It will be an interesting next few months to see if they are right or not.

 

[Teggy]

You guys need to read this look at when Katrina Pierson ran for congress in 2014:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...trina_pierson_is_the_best_the_grassroots.html

Interesting. I wonder why she jumped off Cruz ship (yeah, I could google, but I'm on vacation and I won't waste my relaxation time on that )

 

[RustyNails]

JOSEPH MCQUAID: I don't know what Mr. Trump's support is in our state or nationally, for that matter. I think polls are pretty much bunk, and are name recognition, not real substance. It is a crowded field, and I think Iowa, N. H., and South Carolina are going to winnow the field, and all this poll business is going to be history.

Polls debunked again.

I don't know why people say such strong out of the blue statements. Just admit that Trump is leading your state and then make an informed prediction, like NH residents make up their minds during the last week or something instead of outright calling polls bunk. Guy is leading your entire field. You can't say it's all bs and not substantive. Just be ready to take the L when you say things like that.

 

[Syph Medwes]

My co-workers are going to wonder why I'm tearing-up over here.. 😂

"Yuuge R^2" wow that's actually golden lol

 

[ivysaur12]

Uh oh.

@ryanbeckwith
ANALYSIS: GOP efforts to draw a more diverse voter base have failed.

Also, look at "Whites under 40".

The only groups that have become more Republican are: Jews, Whites Over 40.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Uh oh.

Also, look at "Whites under 40".

Jesus. So only two demographics out of all of those have been pulled to the right? Crazy.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Uh oh.

Also, look at "Whites under 40".

The only groups that have become more Republican are: Jews, Whites Over 40.

How much does Hillary improve on white women? Romney won them by 14.

 

[ivysaur12]

How much does Hillary improve on white women? Romney won them by 14.

I don't think she wins them, but I think she cuts it to a single digit loss.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

The only groups that have become more Republican are: Jews, Whites Over 40.

Probably quite a bit of overlap there, too.

Nobody told my white, Jewish father-in-law though, who is stanning hard for Bernie these days.

 

[B-Dubs]

How much does Hillary improve on white women? Romney won them by 14.

I'd put money on Hillary winning white women, hell on winning all women.

 

[Yellowtail]

The only groups that have become more Republican are: Jews, Whites Over 40.

SMH. A shanda fur die goy.

 

[dramatis]

Restorative justice: its rise and fall in rural upstate New York county. [Slate]

The restorative justice movement nationwide, meanwhile, fell far short of what its supporters had hoped for. In theory at least, it offers a clear alternative to the policies driving mass incarceration. Its promised solutions come at a low cost, in financial and human terms. And it has a track record for treating victims and offenders alike with a compassion that allows people to move on constructively and productively.

Yet it’s barely mentioned in today’s criminal justice reform debate and has never accomplished much more than to chip small chinks out of the granite edifice of the American prison and jail system. The story of Genesee Justice explains why restorative justice has had such a hard time catching on—and sheds light on whether it ever will.

A big factor in the restorative movement's favor, argues Michael Gilbert, executive director of the National Association of Community and Restorative Justice, is the growing bipartisan realization that traditional criminal justice—with its unsustainable prison costs and high recidivism rates—is a failed system. Restorative true believers find it unimaginable that policymakers can stubbornly resist the appeal of their alternative methods forever.

One sign that this isn’t just wishful thinking can be seen in the endorsement of restorative justice by political and evangelical conservatives, and even by police, who are eager to rebut restorative’s “hug-a-thug” image. Fred Fletcher, police chief of Chattanooga, Tennessee, first learned about restorative justice from activists in Austin, Texas, where Fletcher was a police commander working with community groups to shut down open-air drug markets. Restorative problem-solving involves community members at every step—the antidote, Fletcher says, to “saturation-type policing” that only alienates the law-abiding majority. Fletcher, who has begun sending social workers to crime scenes to give victims on-the-spot help, hopes to find the same sort of community support in Chattanooga to address street violence. “You give me enough discretionary resources, and I can arrest people all day long, all week long, all month long,” he says. "I can fill up the jails. And we've been doing that for a few generations of police work. If that was the solution to these problems, we wouldn't have these problems."

One way of looking at how the current version of Genesee Justice works, albeit statistically crude, is to compare the county’s incarceration rate to a national average. Based on the latest Bureau of Justice Statistics data, the national average incarceration rate for local jails would put a county of Genesee’s population, 60,000, at 140 prisoners. That’s well above Genesee’s actual average in the past five years of fewer than 100 prisoners. The comparison is even more favorable considering that the Genesee head count is padded with federal prisoners and others not considered local jail prisoners by BJS.

In the meantime, the county is again debating whether to replace the old jail, although this time the motivation is strictly to modernize, not to expand. I mention the talk of the new jail to Wittman. “Thirty-five years later, we still haven’t built a jail,” he says. “That’s tremendous.”

Much harder than straight up shutting down private prisons, but good things to consider for future reform.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Uh oh.

Also, look at "Whites under 40".

The only groups that have become more Republican are: Jews, Whites Over 40.

How do independents fit into this?

 

[Cerium]

I don't think she wins them, but I think she cuts it to a single digit loss.

Depends who she's up against. Trump's negatives among women, even Republican women, are through the roof. I think she wins white women handily if he's the nominee.

 

[ivysaur12]

How do independents fit into this?

They haven't published the article yet, so I don't know.

 

[Cerium]

They haven't published the article yet, so I don't know.

Full article might be worth a thread.

 

[Daniel B·]

So is Bernie gonna beat Hillary in fundraising for Q4? Should start getting some numbers in a few days.

Thanks for the extra push; I just matched my previous donations, with a $55 one (total now $110). I gratefully received some Christmas cash, so I won't have to learn how to make gruel, just yet .

I of course endorse that cartoon [post=190769921]posted[/post] by Retromelon, with that "" sign, lol .

It's just laughable to me now, when someone says Bernie isn't attracting voters from certain demographics, and to emphasise the point, from the standpoint of women, of all ages, who will undoubtedly get out and vote for him, too, check out this fabulous Bernie introduction (almost had me blubbing again), by RoseAnn DeMoro, the Exec. Dir. of the National Nurses United union, who endorsed Bernie for President:

I don't call Bernie a politician, he's a legislator, he is, he's a rock star to me.

I would be very surprised if Adam were able to post a recent video, for Hillary, that demonstrated anything like the genuine passion exhibited by the speaker and the audience, for her Presidential run, and if Bernie doesn't win the nomination, and this re-discovered passion for American politics, all but evaporates, I would not be overly optimistic for America's future, going forward...

 

[Poodlestrike]

Uh oh.
Also, look at "Whites under 40".

The only groups that have become more Republican are: Jews, Whites Over 40.

And that first one is likely to change if the Sig Heil crowd keeps showing up at Trump's rallies.

 

[ivysaur12]

Full article might be worth a thread.

I made the thread anyways. Waiting on the article.

 

[Cerium]

And that first one is likely to change if the Sig Heil crowd keeps showing up at Trump's rallies.

The Jews that have shifted rightwards (a minority overall) are likely the ones who favor banning Muslims and hate the Iran deal.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

They haven't published the article yet, so I don't know.

I bet whites of any age or religion have moved more towards non-party affiliation over either of the two parties.

 

[Poodlestrike]

The Jews that have shifted rightwards (a minority overall) are likely the ones who favor banning Muslims and hate the Iran deal.

Still. I don't know one politically active Jewish person (myself included) who takes that kind of shit lightly.

 

[RustyNails]

Is it the perception that Obama hates Bibi? But who doesn't hate Bibi?

Edit: It definitely could be the Iran deal.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Is it the perception that Obama hates Bibi? But who doesn't hate Bibi?

Edit: It definitely could be the Iran deal.

It's both. Perception that Obama (and by extension, the Democrats) are weaker on supporting Israel than the Republicans + fear of Iran.

 

[Yellowtail]

Here's how white women have voted in the last 40 years:

1972: McGovern 31% Nixon 68%
1976: Carter 46% Ford 52%
1980: Carter 39% Reagan 52% Anderson 8%
1984: Mondale 38% Reagan 62%
1988: Dukakis: 43% Bush 56%
1992: Clinton 41% Bush 41% Perot 19%
1996: Clinton 48% Dole 43% Perot 8%
2000: Gore: 48% Bush 49%
2004: Kerry 44% Bush 55%
2008: Obama 46% McCain 53%
2012: Obama 42% Romney 56%

No Democrat has won a majority of white women since LBJ. And only Clinton in 1996 managed to win a plurality.

I don't see Hillary winning white women, even against Trump. 48% is probably her ceiling, but even that would make for something close to a landslide.


http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...nearly-all-miami-staff-to-early-states-217235

Jeb Bush's campaign is deploying nearly all of its staff in its Miami headquarters to early states, staffers were informed on a conference call Wednesday afternoon.

Top campaign officials informed employees that the deployment would be staggered throughout the month of January, one participant on the call said. The campaign is expected to deploy between 50 and 60 Miami-based staffers, with 20 going to New Hampshire and 10 or more going to Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada.
Story Continued Below

The move comes as Bush is mounting a major push in New Hampshire, which his advisers consider a must-win state. The former Florida governor, once the frontrunner of the unwieldy GOP field, is making a last-ditch effort to right a campaign that has faltered despite a hefty cash pile and an establishment pedigree.

Shock and awe!

 

[NeoXChaos]

Here's how white women have voted in the last 40 years:

1972: McGovern 31% Nixon 68%
1976: Carter 46% Ford 52%
1980: Carter 39% Reagan 52% Anderson 8%
1984: Mondale 38% Reagan 62%
1988: Dukakis: 43% Bush 56%
1992: Clinton 41% Bush 41% Perot 19%
1996: Clinton 48% Dole 43% Perot 8%
2000: Gore: 48% Bush 49%
2004: Kerry 44% Bush 55%
2008: Obama 46% McCain 53%
2012: Obama 42% Romney 56%

No Democrat has won a majority of white women since LBJ. And only Clinton in 1996 managed to win a plurality.

I don't see Hillary winning white women, even against Trump. 48% is probably her ceiling, but even that would make for something close to a landslide.

how much of that is single vs married white women?

 

[j_k_redtail]

How Rubio helped his ex-con brother-in-law acquire a real estate license (WaPo)

In July 2002, Rubio sent a letter on his official statehouse stationery to the Florida Division of Real Estate, recommending Orlando Cicilia “for licensure without reservation.” The letter, obtained by The Washington Post under the Florida Public Records Act, offers a glimpse of Rubio using his growing political power to assist his troubled brother-in-law and provides new insight into how the young lawmaker intertwined his personal and political lives.

Rubio did not disclose in the letter that Cicilia was married to his sister, Barbara, or that the former cocaine dealer was living at the time in the same West Miami home as Rubio’s parents. He wrote that he had known Cicilia “for over 25 years,” without elaborating.

...

“Marco has recommended scores of Floridians for various professional positions and after Orlando paid his debt to society, Marco was happy to recommend him as well. He believed Orlando should be judged on his own merits and felt it would be highly inappropriate, and could be perceived as exerting undue pressure, if his letter stated that Orlando was a relative.”

Danielle Brian, executive director of the Project on Government Oversight, a government watchdog group in Washington, said Rubio’s role concerned her.

“Someone who serves their time should be a productive member of society, and it’s important for families to help each other, but it’s wrong to use your public office for personal or private gain,” Brian said.

By not disclosing his relationship, Rubio withheld a key piece of information from the real estate board, Brian added. “The general rule of thumb I apply to conflicts of interest is, if you can’t eliminate them, you need to manage them by disclosing the conflict,” she said. “I’m uncomfortable that he didn’t acknowledge the conflict.”

Drip, drip, drip...