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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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I wonder how big the crowd will be. I think Vermont is the most establishment-friendly state for Republicans, but Trump is strong in New England.

Not sure. Local news picked up on some efforts to pick up and hold a majority of the tickets to lessen the crowd, along with a handful of calls for protests, a candlelight vigil, and outright bans on him speaking.

Anecdotally, many of my Bernie-supporting friends are actually going. Morbidly curious like myself, I guess. My grandparents are going, too--they're very into Trump.
 

Holmes

Member
iirc, Vermont is his worst New England state.

They did have the Flatlander movement after civil unions, but I don't know how much of those feelings still persist. I would imagine they'd get a lot of people from New Hampshire and Upstate NY too.
It's weird though, because I'm sure Trump is popular among Republicans in upstate New York and New Hampshire, but not so much with Vermont, which is sandwiched in between those two. I'm really looking forward to seeing the primary results in the state. There's not much polling too. Probabably because Sanders will get 60-70% of the vote and it has so few delegates that it's not really that important either way.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
It's weird though, because I'm sure Trump is popular among Republicans in upstate New York and New Hampshire, but not so much with Vermont, which is sandwiched in between those two. I'm really looking forward to seeing the primary results in the state. There's not much polling too. Probabably because Sanders will get 60-70% of the vote and it has so few delegates that it's not really that important either way.

The ~30-35% of Vermonters who are Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents are just very different than New Hampshire or Upstate Republicans. It's weird.

Adirondack culture is very much more an Upstate thing and very different than rural VT, which is unlike any other part of the country I can think of except for some other rural areas in New England, but even then not really. Similarly, New Hampshire's libertarian streak is very prevelent through almost all parts of the state.

And yeah, the last poll I saw had Bernie at like 63% of the vote in Vermont for the primary.
 
It's weird though, because I'm sure Trump is popular among Republicans in upstate New York and New Hampshire, but not so much with Vermont, which is sandwiched in between those two. I'm really looking forward to seeing the primary results in the state. There's not much polling too. Probabably because Sanders will get 60-70% of the vote and it has so few delegates that it's not really that important either way.

I can only recall most counties in recent memory being more Democrat-leaning aside from Franklin County (rural agricultural place). Stronger Republican support there, generally speaking. We've had governors like Douglas as well as Shumlin and Dean, with enough GOP primary candidates to keep it interesting.

My old college did some in-state polling on Vermonters and candidate preference a while back, but it's old. Like, September old.

Can't imagine Vermont being anything but a roll for Sanders. The Clinton organizers seem to have a tough time, but why bother with Vermont anyway?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
The ~30-35% of Vermonters who are Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents are just very different than New Hampshire or Upstate Republicans. It's weird.

Adirondack culture is very much more an Upstate thing and very different than rural VT, which is unlike any other part of the country I can think of except for some other rural areas in New England, but even then not really. Similarly, New Hampshire's libertarian streak is very prevelent through almost all parts of the state.

And yeah, the last poll I saw had Bernie at like 63% of the vote in Vermont for the primary.

Its also the only state outside of NH he will definitely beat Hillary in the NE. As for Trump I'd laugh if he loses NY.

I can only recall most counties in recent memory being more Democrat-leaning aside from Franklin County (rural agricultural place). Stronger Republican support there, generally speaking. We've had governors like Douglas as well as Shumlin and Dean, with enough GOP primary candidates to keep it interesting.

My old college does some in-state polling on Vermonters and candidate preference a while back, but it's old. Like, September old.

Can't imagine Vermont being anything but a roll for Sanders. The Clinton organizers seem to have a tough time, but why bother with Vermont anyway?

probably hoping and prepping for some astronomical upset.
 

Cerium

Member
Can't imagine Vermont being anything but a roll for Sanders. The Clinton organizers seem to have a tough time, but why bother with Vermont anyway?
Proportional allocation. Clinton isn't hoping to win Vermont, she's trying to maximize the number of delegates she gets out of any given state. This is the strategy that Obama's team pioneered to defeat her, and most of that team is now her team. Obama competed in a number of states where Hillary clearly was going to win, but he still got delegates out of them, and every delegate mattered.
 

Cerium

Member
No fucking shit? I have to go out on the Island for work sometimes and, much like the city, everyone seems to think he's an ass.

It's like a different planet politically out here in the savage lands.

Most of NYC won't be voting in the Republican primary either. Wouldn't be surprised at all if Trump wins.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It's like a different planet politically out here in the savage lands.

Most of NYC won't be voting in the Republican primary either. Wouldn't be surprised at all if Trump wins.

I was talking more about Long Island and the City's suburbs, but I do tend to forget how redneck upstate can get.
 
Trump actually has pretty strong appeal with tri-state area Republicans in my experience. I'd be more surprised if he didn't win NY if the primary is still competitive at that point.
 
It's like a different planet politically out here in the savage lands.

Most of NYC won't be voting in the Republican primary either. Wouldn't be surprised at all if Trump wins.
That's how it is across the country isn't it? With a few exceptions here and there, the rural communities in all states are indistinguishable politically, same for the bigger cities.

For all the talk about how MN hasn't gone for a Republican since 72 and that we're generally a blue state, it's only because of Minneapolis and St. Paul. The other parts of the state gave us Michele Bachmann.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
That's how it is across the country isn't it? With a few exceptions here and there, the rural communities in all states are indistinguishable politically, same for the bigger cities.

For all the talk about how MN hasn't gone for a Republican since 72 and that we're generally a blue state, it's only because of Minneapolis and St. Paul. The other parts of the state gave us Michele Bachmann.

You could say that for most of the country. PA would be red if not for Philly. MI without Detroit. WI without Milwaukee and Madison. etc
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So I'm looking at the predictit markets and I am really tempted to throw another 20 on Hillary for prez given the plummet in price, since so long as nothing major happens it looks like an easy way to double your money.
 
So I'm looking at the predictit markets and I am really tempted to throw another 20 on Hillary for prez given the plummet in price, since so long as nothing major happens it looks like an easy way to double your money.
Yeah I just put 25 on her.

25 on Trump being the GOP nominee, 25 on Hillary winning.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
So I'm looking at the predictit markets and I am really tempted to throw another 20 on Hillary for prez given the plummet in price, since so long as nothing major happens it looks like an easy way to double your money.

Predictit is legal, yes? Somehow?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
So I'm looking at the predictit markets and I am really tempted to throw another 20 on Hillary for prez given the plummet in price, since so long as nothing major happens it looks like an easy way to double your money.

why did her price drop?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/683812954475659264
 

ivysaur12

Banned
You could say that for most of the country. PA would be red if not for Philly. MI without Detroit. WI without Milwaukee and Madison. etc

The only states that would still be blue without their urban centers would probably be states without any real urban centers and a high level of suburbanization of white liberals (Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts) or majority minority states (Hawaii).
 

Teggy

Member
WTH, Trump is in Lowell, MA tomorrow? That's even closer than he was last week.

Sad thing is the reason I know is one of my Facebook friends asked who was going.
 

User 406

Banned
It doesn't mean he votes GOP. As I recall, Weigel, like Josh Barro, is a registered Republican who's voted for the Democrat in the last few elections, because the GOP is a clown fiesta.

So what you're saying is he is a Republican in name only.
 

Iolo

Member
It doesn't mean he votes GOP. As I recall, Weigel, like Josh Barro, is a registered Republican who's voted for the Democrat in the last few elections, because the GOP is a clown fiesta.

Weigel voted for Nader, Kerry, Obama, and Gary Johnson in the general.
 

gaugebozo

Member
Obama would have won Michigan even if you threw out all the votes in Detroit (Wayne County), by almost 100k votes.
Michigan has plenty of other urban centers, and even the suburban metro area is somewhat sympathetic what with the car makers and union history. The Grosse Pointes probably add some tens of thousands of Republican votes that would also get thrown out as well.
 
Not going to lie, that's actually a bit surprising.

Did you not follow his career. He started at reason

In the 2000 U.S. presidential election, Weigel voted for Ralph Nader, and served as a Delaware college elector for Nader.[18] In the 2004 election, Weigel voted for John Kerry. Weigel later wrote that "[he regrets] the Nader vote, but not the Kerry vote, as a weak Democratic president with a conservative Congress would have been pretty tolerable in retrospect".[18] He voted for Jack Ryan in the Illinois United States Senate election, 2004 Republican primary.[19]
Since early 2007, Weigel has been a registered Republican in the Washington, D.C. area,[20][21][22] in order to vote for Ron Paul at the Republican primary stage of the 2008 presidential election.[23] In 2008, Weigel voted for Barack Obama, explaining "I really don't think McCain has the temperament to be President or the interest in standing up to a Democratic Congress... I've got the luxury of a guilt-free, zero-impact vote in the District of Columbia, which I would cast for Bob Barr if he was on the ballot".[18]
In January 2011, Weigel stated that he has voted for Republican Patrick Mara on elections to the Council of the District of Columbia, and that he has voted for Mara "every time he's been on the ballot".[24] He confirmed this in April 2011.[25]
In the Republican Party presidential primaries 2012, Weigel voted for Jon Huntsman, despite him having withdrawn from the race, because "If you looked past his whiff of a tax plan (Huntsman recommended using the flat rates that Simpson and Bowles recommended not using), the guy had a few good ideas."[26] In the 2012 general election, Weigel voted for Gary Johnson.[27]
 
So, I don't live in the US ATM, but what seems to be the view about the incident in Oregon? I know that Fox and the right backed off of this last time around. Does it seem like this could become another political issue in this political climate? I could totally see a couple of the candidates talking about the "legitimate grievances" of those involved and another example of "big government's" excessive reach, or something like that. Just the thought makes me terrified.
 
Whoever here argued Trump was in good position because the holidays basically freeze the race in its current position was right. Holidays have passed and Trump is still the story. He waited for the perfect time to release his ad, and I'm sure he'll be touring the media over the next couple days.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Ted Cruz needs our money, y'all..
8773DE15-0959-4EDC-89F4-6C615D98076B.gif


(ONE WEEK. Bye, Bobby!)

Whoever here argued Trump was in good position because the holidays basically freeze the race in its current position was right. Holidays have passed and Trump is still the story. He waited for the perfect time to release his ad, and I'm sure he'll be touring the media over the next couple days.
If he does pull this off, scholars will study how he manipulated media cycles in this new era. He's been absolutely masterful.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Whoever here argued Trump was in good position because the holidays basically freeze the race in its current position was right. Holidays have passed and Trump is still the story. He waited for the perfect time to release his ad, and I'm sure he'll be touring the media over the next couple days.

you got a lot of bets to answer to this year.
 
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