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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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you got a lot of bets to answer to this year.

My general view is that Trump will lose Iowa, likely in third or fourth place. Such a loss will end the narrative that he is "winning" or the main front runner, and I don't think he'll respond well to that. NH is the state I feel the least confident about when it comes to my "Trump won't win a primary" bet. Simply because it's a primary, he's up quite a bit, and I don't believe Iowa's winner (Cruz) will do well there. Whereas I think South Carolina is Cruz country. Dunno about Nevada.
 

thefro

Member
Whoever here argued Trump was in good position because the holidays basically freeze the race in its current position was right. Holidays have passed and Trump is still the story. He waited for the perfect time to release his ad, and I'm sure he'll be touring the media over the next couple days.

Big Dawg gets deployed this week so we'll probably see the Bill Clinton v.s. Trump rumble dominate the media too.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Big Dawg gets deployed this week so we'll probably see the Bill Clinton v.s. Trump rumble dominate the media too.
Yup. Now that we're in crunch time, Bill is out to reel Trump in.

If Hillary is able to successfully pick her opponent, knowing that there are far more competitive opponents in their candidate pool.. I'm gonna howl.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
My general view is that Trump will lose Iowa, likely in third or fourth place. Such a loss will end the narrative that he is "winning" or the main front runner, and I don't think he'll respond well to that. NH is the state I feel the least confident about when it comes to my "Trump won't win a primary" bet. Simply because it's a primary, he's up quite a bit, and I don't believe Iowa's winner (Cruz) will do well there. Whereas I think South Carolina is Cruz country. Dunno about Nevada.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173890293&postcount=13100
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=173907417&postcount=13123
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175151547&postcount=14994
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175812996&postcount=104
http://assets.neogafllc.netdna-cdn.com/forum/showpost.php?p=160394290&postcount=4157
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Yup. Now that we're in crunch time, Bill is out to reel Trump in.

If Hillary is able to successfully pick her opponent, knowing that there are far more competitive opponents in their candidate pool.. I'm gonna howl.

I'll fucking die if the GOP falls for this shit.
 
Yup. Now that we're in crunch time, Bill is out to reel Trump in.

If Hillary is able to successfully pick her opponent, knowing that there are far more competitive opponents in their candidate pool.. I'm gonna howl.
Hoping for a lede like this in a years time:

It was July 21, 2016, and I was standing in my room in Chappaqua about to shotgun a beer for the hundreth time in my life. I had just made the biggest gamble of my political career—a $1 billion gamble—and it had paid off. Running again for election for the Presidency, I had successfully manipulated the Republican primary so that in the general election I would face the candidate I was most likely to beat. And this is how I had promised Huma we would celebrate...
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...ri-claire-mccaskill-2012-121262#ixzz3w0ZINjfZ

plenty-ladylike-9781476756752.jpg
 

NeoXChaos

Member
It was May 21, 2015, and Bill was standing in his room in Chappaqua on a phone call with Donald Trump. He had just made the biggest gamble of his and my political career. On July 21, 2016 it finally paid off. Running again for election for the Presidency, I had successfully manipulated the Republican primary so that in the general election I would face the candidate I was most likely to beat. And this is how I had promised Huma we would celebrate...

magical.
 

Teggy

Member
Hey guys Ben Carson just released his groundbreaking flat tax plan. We won't even need the IRS anymore and everything will be great!
 

Jeb prediction looking real good. In terms of Trump yes it's not looking great, but I still just refuse to believe he can pull it off. After he loses Iowa I expect a tailspin. And in terms of Iowa I think it'll be Cruz, Carson, and someone we don't expect as the top three. Caucuses are hard to poll.
 
Patrick Svitek ‏@PatrickSvitek 5m5 minutes ago Iowa, USA
Just in: Former Huckabee spokeswoman Alice Stewart has joined @tedcruz's campaign as a senior adviser.
add to the fact Huckabee said on MSNBC he'll dropout if he doesnt finish above 5th place in Iowa


yeah hes done
 

dramatis

Member
It's strange how these republican ads feel like they have such low production values.

I guess that's the nature of fast and furious campaigning though
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It's strange how these republican ads feel like they have such low production values.

I guess that's the nature of fast and furious campaigning though

Part of it is saving money, but don't forget that their base doesn't want traditional politicians. Traditional politicians pay for proper ads, by having shitty looking ones they signal that they aren't really politicians. That or they are all just utter morons who wouldn't know what a proper ad looks like.
 

Mike M

Nick N
What's more amazing is that this is his first ad. Dude's completely rewriting the rules, it's nuts.

Really have to wonder how this is going to impact elections going forward. Obviously there are few (if any) who can match Trump's combination of bombast, media savvy, and the financial independence from the party apparatus to get away with it, but I can't imagine that this won't leave any impact at all.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
What's more amazing is that this is his first ad. Dude's completely rewriting the rules, it's nuts.

Really have to wonder how this is going to impact elections going forward. Obviously there are few (if any) who can match Trump's combination of bombast, media savvy, and the financial independence from the party apparatus to get away with it, but I can't imagine that this won't leave any impact at all.

The fact that this is his first ad is the shocking part. He started at the point where most campaigns end up, where he goes from here is uncharted territory.
 
Romney to Bush: I don't know if you can win

While exploring his own 2016 GOP presidential bid last year, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney told Jeb Bush that he wasn't sure the former Florida governor could defeat Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton to win the White House.
Romney recalled his remarks during an interview with The Washington Post, telling the newspaper of his meeting with Bush in January 2015.

“Jeb, to be very honest, I think it’s very hard for you to post up against Hillary Clinton and to separate yourself from the difficulty of the W. years and compare them with the Clinton years," Romney recalled saying to Bush.

According to Romney, Bush responded that “he was going to make his campaign about the future, not about the past.”

“I didn’t say anything at that point,” Romney told the Post. “But as he left, I said to myself, ‘Gosh, in my opinion, it’s not going to be as easy to make that separation as I think he gives the impression it will be.’ One of the few things I predicted that turned out to be true.”

A Bush spokesperson declined to comment to the newspaper, saying that they wanted to honor Bush's commitment to Romney about keeping their meeting private.


Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee who lost to Barack Obama, openly explored running for president in 2016 for several weeks early last year before deciding against it and calling for "one of our next generation of Republican leaders" to run for the GOP nomination.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...642-romney-to-bush-i-dont-know-if-you-can-win

Knives are out. Romney has to be slapping himself for letting Bush's money people bully him out of running.
 

User 406

Banned
Come on. You guys aren't shocked by Trump's ad. All of you have seen political ads before.

This is for a presidential candidate, not for House Representative for East Jesus County.

AND TAKE THEIR OIL!

There's no geopolitical complexity here. Kill Muslims, get oil. It's like a 100% drop rate.
 
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...642-romney-to-bush-i-dont-know-if-you-can-win

Knives are out. Romney has to be slapping himself for letting Bush's money people bully him out of running.
Without going too much into fanfic territory, honestly I think Mitt saw the pain in Anne's eyes the moment he lost, and her watery eyes on stage for concession speech, and really didn't want his family to be put through the grinder again. Its clear that you need a massively popular campaign to defeat the Clinton juggernaut. He didn't see it happening with a repeat of his failed 2012 bid.
 
Without going too much into fanfic territory, honestly I think Mitt saw the pain in Anne's eyes the moment he lost, and her watery eyes on stage for concession speech, and really didn't want his family to be put through the grinder again. Its clear that you need a massively popular campaign to defeat the Clinton juggernaut. He didn't see it happening with a repeat of his failed 2012 bid.

That, and it's clear after 2008 and 2012 that the party was never really thrilled with Romney as a candidate. He got his ass kicked all over the south by Huckabee of all people in 2008 while McCain took the nomination, and even though he won in 2012, it was against the weakest opponents in political history. Every single one of them (Cain, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann) would have been destroyed in the general by 20 points.

Bush aside, Rubio, Cruz, Trump, and even Christie and Kaisch are FAR more difficult opponents. Romney as a two time loser had no shot there.
 

gaugebozo

Member
This is for a presidential candidate, not for House Representative for East Jesus County.

AND TAKE THEIR OIL!

There's no geopolitical complexity here. Kill Muslims, get oil. It's like a 100% drop rate.
Next Symbol of Avarice in Dark Souls 3: Donald Trump's head.

Lore: pretty much the same.

"Monster head resembling a treasure chest.
Once an ancient god, it is said this is the
symbol of shame imposed on a long lost clan,
exiled for the sin of avarice.

Wearing this slightly raises soul absorption
and item discovery, but also affects its
wearer with the curse of the branded."
 
Without going too much into fanfic territory, honestly I think Mitt saw the pain in Anne's eyes the moment he lost, and her watery eyes on stage for concession speech, and really didn't want his family to be put through the grinder again. Its clear that you need a massively popular campaign to defeat the Clinton juggernaut. He didn't see it happening with a repeat of his failed 2012 bid.

That, and it's clear after 2008 and 2012 that the party was never really thrilled with Romney as a candidate. He got his ass kicked all over the south by Huckabee of all people in 2008 while McCain took the nomination, and even though he won in 2012, it was against the weakest opponents in political history. Every single one of them (Cain, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann) would have been destroyed in the general by 20 points.

Bush aside, Rubio, Cruz, Trump, and even Christie and Kaisch are FAR more difficult opponents. Romney as a two time loser had no shot there.

Yerp. End of the day, Mitt is Not Stupid. He might slip up once in a while, but the man has a good head with beautiful hair on his shoulders. Dude knows that if he couldn't take out the unpopular black man, he sure as hell ain't taking out the golden woman. Especially not with this republican base.

Might as well let jeb implode and try again in 2020 if an economic collapse happens. Or not, since he'd be 73. God damn does that man age well.
 

Makai

Member
"Romney: Bush-Clinton matchup 'would be too easy for the Democrats'"

“Jeb, to be very honest, I think it’s very hard for you to post up against Hillary Clinton and to separate yourself from the difficulty of the W. years and compare them with the Clinton years,” Romney recalled telling Bush, referring to former President George W. Bush’s administration.
 
Oh, that Trump ad is beautiful. It's like an ad from a GTA radio station and a fever dream had a baby. Come on, Trump. I believe in you. You can do this. You got this.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I like how his first ad includes all the things that make him completely unelectable as a candidate.

Don't let me down, GOP.

Don't worry, Hillary's finally unleashed the big dog. If anyone can reel this one in it's Bill.

EDIT: God, this would make a great political cartoon. Trump is the fish, Hillary's driving the boat, Bill's the fisherman with Obama holding the net. Diamond Joe is the guy off to the side with a six-pack of Icehouse and putting suntan lotion on the supermodels.
 
You guys need a daily dose of pure op-ed idiocy?

The Left May Come to Loathe Barack Obama

Title alone: yeah no. Not going to happen.

TL;DR bullcrap:

- No lasting policy achievements (author assumes ACA will be weakened or gone in the next term)
- Worse position militarily than we were under Bush (not enough lols for this one)
- Feckless foreign policy (dude can fuck off with this shit)
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
You guys need a daily dose of pure op-ed idiocy?

The Left May Come to Loathe Barack Obama

Title alone: yeah no. Not going to happen.

TL;DR bullcrap:

- No lasting policy achievements (author assumes ACA will be weakened or gone in the next term)
- Worse position militarily than we were under Bush (not enough lols for this one)
- Feckless foreign policy (dude can fuck off with this shit)

So I had never heard of that magazine/website before so I went to their about us page and it explained everything.
 
You guys need a daily dose of pure op-ed idiocy?

The Left May Come to Loathe Barack Obama

Title alone: yeah no. Not going to happen.

TL;DR bullcrap:

- No lasting policy achievements (author assumes ACA will be weakened or gone in the next term)
- Worse position militarily than we were under Bush (not enough lols for this one)
- Feckless foreign policy (dude can fuck off with this shit)

There already is a group of far, far left people (mostly Sanders supporters from my experience) who loathe President Obama. He's not the pure liberal they were hoping for, simply because he had to, you know, govern. They're a small group, ya, but they do exist, unfortunately.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
You guys need a daily dose of pure op-ed idiocy?

The Left May Come to Loathe Barack Obama

Title alone: yeah no. Not going to happen.

TL;DR bullcrap:

- No lasting policy achievements (author assumes ACA will be weakened or gone in the next term)
- Worse position militarily than we were under Bush (not enough lols for this one)
- Feckless foreign policy (dude can fuck off with this shit)

It's cool that PD gets a column.
 
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