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[CrimzonSamurai]

The timing didn't work, he needed to be in the race at around the same time Beau died. The debates definitely would have been more fun, I can only imagine the sort of ether he'd have thrown Trump's way.

I feel like he could've taken some of Trump's blue collar bloc support, but maybe that's wishful thinking.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I feel like he could've taken some of Trump's blue collar bloc support, but maybe that's wishful thinking.

The blue collar people supporting Trump have been voting Republican for years. They already think every Democrat wants to give their money to the blacks and browns. Actual white working class voters who support Democrats already vote for Democrats - outside of the South, we win them.

 

[NeoXChaos]

The blue collar people supporting Trump have been voting Republican for years. They already think every Democrat wants to give their money to the blacks and browns. Actual white working class voters who support Democrats already vote for Democrats - outside of the South, we win them.

so your telling me they are not actually white? their green or purple class voters?

 

[B-Dubs]

He has 2 chances and he blew both. He got only 1% last time. I am happy for him. No regrets from me.

Yea, but he could have spiced up the debates and thrown out some zingers. We have to admit that it's been a pretty boring affair without him.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZ1zBODwGTk

"Our goal is eternity, the ability to live alongside our Creator and for all time, to accept the free gift of salvation offered to us by Jesus Christ. The struggle on a daily basis as a Christian is to remind ourselves of this. The purpose of our life is to cooperate with God’s plan, to those who much has been given much is expected and we will be asked to account for that. Were your treasures stored up on earth or in Heaven and to me I try to allow that to influence me in everything that I do."

Because non-Christians don't matter. Oh and Radical Islam wants to impose its believe on others and rule in a religious way!

 

[NeoXChaos]

Obamacare vote.

 

[ivysaur12]

What speech is Hillary giving right now? Apparently it's a good one.

 

[Butts-a-plenty]

Gross. Clinton would win even without superdelegates, but the fact that Democrats have super delegates that can put such a handicap on the race before voting even begins is disgusting. One of the very few things that's actually better in the Republican party that they don't have such a anti democratic system.

You'd think the democratic party would act more like a democratic, given their name.

Since when is a party nominating process supposed to be democratic?

 

[lednerg]

Rand's going to be on Colbert (CBS) in a few minutes.

And Seinfeld's on now talking about having Obama on Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee. [Just watched it, it's a must watch]

Live blog:
12:16 : Rand admits to cutting his own hair.
12:17 : SC - "Are you as transparent in your beliefs as your dad?"
12:18 : Rand laments winning "Worst Dressed"
12:19 : SC - "You were the first to go after Donald Trump..."
12:19 : RP - "...the big guy from New Jersey." [referring to Christie]
12:20 : SC - "You are hard to pin down on ideological lines"
12:21 : RP - "[My father is] almost Libertarian. I'm Libertarian-ish."
12:22 : RP - "You're not going to talk about pot, are you? ... I thought we said..."

It'll be on YouTube tomorrow morning.

 

[Holmes]

What speech is Hillary giving right now? Apparently it's a good one.

She's in Nevada. Should check @HillaryforNV.

edit: A Nevada Dem caucus dinner.

 

[Makai]

Any predictions on Ted's survival?

 

[A Human Becoming]

House pass $10.10 minimum wage bill, Federal minimum wage bill to $15. Senate pass $10.10 minimum wage. Federal to $12.

Reconciliation. Combine the two with final changes both chambers can agree on. Send back to each chamber for final passage. If reconciled bill is changed in any form again in either chamber it goes right back to the drawing board.

In the Senate in reconciliation only a simple majority 50+1 is needed to override a filibuster.

Its how healthcare got through. Its also how public option failed. The House pass a HC bill with the public option as an amendment. The senate pass its own HC bill without it(I think it actually was either filibustered or failed in vote). In reconciliation they removed it.

Thanks! I understand now. Also, I believe the public option was cut so Joe Lieberman would provided the 60th vote.

 

[Cerium]

Thanks! I understand now. Also, I believe the public option was cut so Joe Lieberman would provided the 60th vote.

Joe Lieberman is one of my most detested political figures of recent history. He's Top 5 for sure. What a shitbag.

 

[SL128]

Not even the Connecticut for Lieberman party liked Lieberman.

 

[johnsmith]

Not even the Connecticut for Lieberman party liked Lieberman.

"Connecticut for Lieberman was a Connecticut political party created by twenty-five supporters of Senator Joe Lieberman."

 

[User 463088]

Joe Lieberman is one of my most detested political figures of recent history. He's Top 5 for sure. What a shitbag.

Ugh, why Gore picked him has NEVER made sense to me. Actually, nothing Gore did in 2000 made sense to me.

 

[Holmes]

Ugh, why Gore picked him has NEVER made sense to me. Actually, nothing Gore did in 2000 made sense to me.

He hoped the Jewish vote would carry Florida for him.

 

[lednerg]

Ugh, why Gore picked him has NEVER made sense to me. Actually, nothing Gore did in 2000 made sense to me.

The real inside job.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Ugh, why Gore picked him has NEVER made sense to me. Actually, nothing Gore did in 2000 made sense to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyKlcQ_HiD4

December 13, 2000: A date which will live in infamy. Vice-president Gore offers his concession speech to George W. Bush, who, through a well-engineered conspiracy involving his brother (the governor of florida) and the Supreme Court justices (all of whom were appointed by George H .W. Bush, and his mentor, Ronald Reagan), threw the law and Constitution aside and forced the country into 8 years of terrorism and despair.

Plz let this not be Hillary in November.

 

[User 463088]

He hoped the Jewish vote would carry Florida for him.

The real inside job.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyKlcQ_HiD4



Plz let this not be Hillary in November.

I lived in Florida at the time. Ugh. I still have flashbacks. The pure devastation we had to deal with as a country as a result of Al Gore (and Devine) being incompetent at running a campaign. Sitting President with a freaking 60% approval rating (or something there abouts) you just ignore him? You pick freaking Lieberman who is the antithesis of personality and warmth....and Gore wasn't a freaking teddy bear.

 

[Holmes]

Politico ran a fun article. "Sanders is spending money in Nevada! Isn't it supposed to be Clinton country!?"

lol

 

[vicissitudes]

Trump: North Korea is China's problem to fix:

"China should solve that problem and we should put pressure on China to solve the problem," Trump said in a wide-ranging interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on "The Situation Room" Wednesday at Trump Tower in midtown Manhattan. "If they don't solve that problem, we should be very tough on them on trade -- meaning, start charging them tax or start cutting them off. You'd have China collapse in about two minutes."

Bernie Sanders agrees:

"We'll have to lean on China," Sanders said of the U.S. strategy in an interview on “Good Morning America” today. "China is North Korea's closest ally. They'll have to push North Korea to start adhering to international agreements. … When you have a hydrogen bomb, if that's true, you are a threat to China, as well.”

More evidence that Bernie and Trump are the only two candidates in this election who will tell it like it is, instead of obfuscating policies and positions behind political circumlocution and chicanery (like a certain candidate I won't name).

 

[lednerg]

Which one am I not supposed to take seriously? They're so alike.

 

[Black Mamba]

I hope you got Junior's cheesecake while you were there

Of course, among other wonderful desserts.

you came to new york and didn't mention it? lame...

was it vacation or business?

Vacation. My girlfriend had never been and it was for her birthday.

Bdubs and I had like a half page convo about it here a month ago so everyone knew!

(Notice how Bdubs has ignored the shake shack embarrassment).

 

[Ecotic]

The economic future looks like shit. I'm more confident than I was months ago that 2016 is going to see a downturn. 2015 was the business cycle top.

It's personally maddening, the media can't really collectively report on something like this until it's already happened but to people who really study this it's becoming obvious. All the leading indicators are pointing to it. Developing economies are down, commodities are down, manufacturing is contracting both in the U.S. and China, aggregate demand is down, there's no broad market participation, there's an exodus out of high yield bonds, the U.S. dollar is prohibitively strong for exports. China is in severe trouble. The world is about to pay the price for years of political dysfunction that left monetary policy to carry the weight of the world economy on its own. There's no interest rates to lower this time around to juice the economy.

The downturn is going to come at the worst time for Democrats, with an incumbent President with a lowish 40's approval rating.

 

[Jack Remington]

Should have slashed regulations and cut taxes on the job creators. And not passed a job-killing socialist healthcare bill. 2016 offers a clear choice between 4 more years of this administration's failed policies, or a government that will unshackle the American economy and restore prosperity.

*Paid for by Rubio 2016.

 

[Cerium]

The economic future looks like shit. I'm more confident than I was months ago that 2016 is going to see a downturn. 2015 was the business cycle top.

It's personally maddening, the media can't really collectively report on something like this until it's already happened but to people who really study this it's becoming obvious. All the leading indicators are pointing to it. Developing economies are down, commodities are down, manufacturing is contracting both in the U.S. and China, aggregate demand is down, there's no broad market participation, there's an exodus out of high yield bonds, the U.S. dollar is prohibitively strong for exports. China is in severe trouble. The world is about to pay the price for years of political dysfunction that left monetary policy to carry the weight of the world economy on its own. There's no interest rates to lower this time around to juice the economy.

The downturn is going to come at the worst time for Democrats, with an incumbent President with a lowish 40's approval rating.

So you're saying the universe itself wants President Trump.

 

[VanMardigan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZ1zBODwGTk

Because non-Christians don't matter. Oh and Radical Islam wants to impose its believe on others and rule in a religious way!

I'm not watching the video, but what you quoted is just an expression of Christian faith. If Obama made that same statement I wouldn't even notice. What's offensive to you about what you quoted?

 

[FloydtheFathead]

So you're saying the universe itself wants President Trump.

We get the president we deserve.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I'm not watching the video, but what you quoted is just an expression of Christian faith. If Obama made that same statement I wouldn't even notice. What's offensive to you about what you quoted?

That it's a political ad. I have no problem stating that on Sunday or in church. But that a man is saying that is why people should vote for him. As a non-christian that's scary

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The economic future looks like shit. I'm more confident than I was months ago that 2016 is going to see a downturn. 2015 was the business cycle top.

It's personally maddening, the media can't really collectively report on something like this until it's already happened but to people who really study this it's becoming obvious. All the leading indicators are pointing to it. Developing economies are down, commodities are down, manufacturing is contracting both in the U.S. and China, aggregate demand is down, there's no broad market participation, there's an exodus out of high yield bonds, the U.S. dollar is prohibitively strong for exports. China is in severe trouble. The world is about to pay the price for years of political dysfunction that left monetary policy to carry the weight of the world economy on its own. There's no interest rates to lower this time around to juice the economy.

The downturn is going to come at the worst time for Democrats, with an incumbent President with a lowish 40's approval rating.

I don't know how this really changes anything in the presidential race. Especially with how people vote for president and the likley GOP candidates

 

[Ecotic]

I don't know how this really changes anything in the presidential race. Especially with how people vote for president and the likley GOP candidates

Well voting patterns are definitely less elastic than they were 25 years ago but I think a downturn would definitely still cost the incumbent party a few percentage points. Most election models like Alan Abramowitz's still strongly depend upon GDP growth rate and the incumbent President's approval rating.

 

[Coriolanus]

I don't know how this really changes anything in the presidential race. Especially with how people vote for president and the likley GOP candidates

Especially when folks have the opportunity to vote for a name that embodies a period of economic prosperity.

 

[User 406]

Especially when folks have the opportunity to vote for a name that embodies a period of economic prosperity.

 

[dramatis]

Trump: North Korea is China's problem to fix:



Bernie Sanders agrees:



More evidence that Bernie and Trump are the only two candidates in this election who will tell it like it is, instead of obfuscating policies and positions behind political circumlocution and chicanery (like a certain candidate I won't name).

So like China will just do what we tell them to, right? Just like how Mexico will pay for the wall?

Because foreign policy is a simple as "telling it like it is". Next thing you know they'll say that all we need to do is pressure Saudi Arabia and Iran into being friends and the problem would be solved!

 

[Y2Kev]

Politico's article on Nevada and sanders has a shameful headline. Base crass garbage from this shit site! More horse race!

 

[B-Dubs]

Of course, among other wonderful desserts.



Vacation. My girlfriend had never been and it was for her birthday.

Bdubs and I had like a half page convo about it here a month ago so everyone knew!

(Notice how Bdubs has ignored the shake shack embarrassment).

It's not my fault that you guys are unable to recognize greatness.

 

[Y2Kev]

Greenberg gave Jeb! 10 million!!! Momentum!!!!!

 

[Plinko]

Obamacare vote.

Brb moving to Minnesota.

 

[noshten]

Politico's article on Nevada and sanders has a shameful headline. Base crass garbage from this shit site! More horse race!

Yep, that Politico with it's pro-Sanders bias lol


An interesting quip from another article, when you think about it's pretty amazing.

Fewer than 300 of his supporters have given the individual maximum of $2,700 during the primary and as a group are responsible for less than 2 percent of his cash; Clinton’s almost 18,000 maximum donors account for nearly two-thirds of hers.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Well voting patterns are definitely less elastic than they were 25 years ago but I think a downturn would definitely still cost the incumbent party a few percentage points. Most election models like Alan Abramowitz's still strongly depend upon GDP growth rate and the incumbent President's approval rating.

Does it matter in VA or FL among the the people that will decide the election?

If Rubio is the nominee, it matters.

If Cruz or Trump is? How is that going to change the puerto rican's vote in the I4 corridor in Florida? The DC suburbs in VA? Iowa? Nevada?

This models try so hard to fit a limited number of data points around a theory.

I remember reading a story chris hayes did about undecided voters in 2004. The more Bush failed in foreign policy the more it helped him because voters thought kerry couldn't fix it. I just don't see any reason people are demanding GOP leadership. Look at 2012. The economy was horrible and unemployment high, Obama was supposed to lose based on that. He didn't.

And we're not looking at a 2008 type downturn. Plus the effects of any recession (which I'm still not sold on) would likely be delayed until at or after the election, limiting the effects on the race.

 

[Mike M]

Brb moving to Minnesota.

The dark blue is a Dem vote to repeal.

 

[Plinko]

The dark blue is a Dem vote to repeal.

It's one voter.

I'll just live on the east side.

 

[HylianTom]

This morning, a pair of interesting articles about the GOP frontrunner's fate.

First, Douthat detailing How Donald Trump Loses

The crux of his argument? Ceilings.

There is no credible scenario in which a consistent 30 percent of the vote will deliver the delegates required to be the Republican nominee. So for Trump to lose, he doesn’t actually have to collapse; he just has to fail to expand his support. And in the states where candidates are actually campaigning, voters are paying the most attention, and the polling screens for likely voters are tightening, he hasn’t expanded his support meaningfully since he first climbed into the lead.

===

Sam Wang replies in a piece entitled Does Trump’s ceiling matter?

A key:

So, if you want to say that Trump is doomed, it would be best not to talk too much about a ceiling of support that is below 50%. That ceiling will matter more if he faces only one other opponent.

He ends the piece with this tweet:

 

[Abinash117]

The primary audience is different from the general one, I would think Donald Trump would have a "ceiling" . It could be possible that if Donald Trump gets the nomination he will see himself get slightly get less support in the general.

 

[thepotatoman]

Since when is a party nominating process supposed to be democratic?

When you have a 2 party system, the primary process is pretty important to maintaining a proper democracy.

 

[HylianTom]

Interesting strategic choice on Trump's part..

And someone's response pic:

A really odd dynamic.

Trump attacks Cruz.
Cruz says he won't take media bait and that Trump is "terrific."
Trump accepts the complement, the issue dies-down.

Now Trump attacks again.
Cruz responds with a clip of a classic TV moment (the Fonz jumping the shark).
And now Trump appears to be backing-off.

It's almost cute, the way they flirt. We need PD back for some TrumpxCruz fanfic.

 

[B-Dubs]

This morning, a pair of interesting articles about the GOP frontrunner's fate.

First, Douthat detailing How Donald Trump Loses

The crux of his argument? Ceilings.



===

Sam Wang replies in a piece entitled Does Trump’s ceiling matter?

A key:


He ends the piece with this tweet:

Looks like everyone's finally jumped into this shit show.

 

[Cerium]

When you have a 2 party system, the primary process is pretty important to maintaining a proper democracy.

Your mind would be blown by how things work in Parliamentary systems like the UK.

Or hell, Japan, which for all intents and purposes has a 1 party system.

 

[RustyNails]

The economic future looks like shit. I'm more confident than I was months ago that 2016 is going to see a downturn. 2015 was the business cycle top.

It's personally maddening, the media can't really collectively report on something like this until it's already happened but to people who really study this it's becoming obvious. All the leading indicators are pointing to it. Developing economies are down, commodities are down, manufacturing is contracting both in the U.S. and China, aggregate demand is down, there's no broad market participation, there's an exodus out of high yield bonds, the U.S. dollar is prohibitively strong for exports. China is in severe trouble. The world is about to pay the price for years of political dysfunction that left monetary policy to carry the weight of the world economy on its own. There's no interest rates to lower this time around to juice the economy.

The downturn is going to come at the worst time for Democrats, with an incumbent President with a lowish 40's approval rating.

This pre-emptive diablosing doesn't make sense. World economy will always going to be rocky. First the Euro crisis, then greek bailout, then other euro countries defaulting, the dubai bailout, and now the chinese fears. US economy is rock solid by every single measure. What are you seeing that no one else is? The Fed is ending the QE program in the biggest sign that we are off the training wheels. Just yesterday ADP predicted that we will return to full employment by May 2016. How is that not the most positive sign that US economy is doing better than expected.

Dont give in to fear mongering by the republicans about the stock market and China. That shit means diddly squat to hiring, GDP and growth. However, whatever the next big bubble is going to be, it will not be as adverse as the economic collapse of 2008. It will be of the same magnitude and S&L crisis during Reagan or dot com crisis during Clinton/Bush years. Meaning, not big enough to derail an election, party or presidency.