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[B-Dubs]

I really hope you're right. I just worry that evangelicals will decide this is their opportunity overturn Roe v. Wade, get an anti-gay marriage amendment, whatever...

Trump is DOA in the general, Romney couldn't walk his shit back and that was nothing compared to the stuff Trump has said. If they pick Trump then the game turns into how much can the Dems run up the numbers.

What about the people who think Cruz would be able to manipulate voters with his rhetoric enough to win an election?

I laugh in their faces. He is the most untrustworthy looking dude who ever lived and he'll never be able to walk his shit back. He's got Trump's problem only worse since everyone hates him with a passion.

 

[Basileus777]

Also lets them go back to the "wasn't a true conservative" rationalization / watering hole if/when he loses, and continue to not self reflect or learn anything.

There will always be a rationalization to find.

 

[Black Mamba]

Super Math Wiz Boy Wonder:

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) launched a broad critique of President Obama’s economic record hours before the president delivers his final State of the Union address.

Instead of crediting Obama for any of the economic gains that have occurred in the last seven years, Ryan argued that the Federal Reserve’s policies pushed the recovery.

Older:

Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the new chairman of the House Budget Committee and a vocal skeptic of the Fed’s bond-buying effort, told Mr. Bernanke: “My concern is that the costs of the Fed’s current monetary policy — the money creation and massive balance sheet expansion — will come to outweigh the perceived short-term benefits.”

LOL

Can't give Obama credit for anything...so he'll give claim to the Fed which he continually has argued its policies as being wrong too.

Ryan has zero conception about macroeconomic policy yet he's the math wiz.

 

[j_k_redtail]

<snip, wrong thread>

 

[Black Mamba]

Trump is now playing Born in the USA at his rallies.

/dead

 

[B-Dubs]

Trump is now playing Born in the USA at his rallies.

/dead

Someone needs to tell Bruce, he isn't going to be happy about that shit.


Also, of course Trump completely misunderstands the song >.<

 

[Holmes]

Trump is now playing Born in the USA at his rallies.

/dead

 

[Teggy]

Trump is now playing Born in the USA at his rallies.

/dead

He wants to be just like Reagan (who didn't understand what the song is about either).

I'd expect a C&D shortly, after which he will tweet that Springsteen is a loser, and he has better entertainers at his casinos.

 

[kingkitty]

Also, of course Trump completely misunderstands the song >.<

Trump truly is like Reagan.

edit: beaten like Jeb

 

[Teggy]

Seeing Trump and Cruz at each other's throats in the next debate should be interesting.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Against Trump I would consider it a disappointing result if Democrats didn't win the House majority, much less the Senate and the presidency.

 

[User 463088]

The duck call works on republican voters? who knew

I mean, not as effectively as a dog whistle, but sure...

 

[Iolo]

omg

Unbelievable? Let's go to the tape:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0SOJkZFr5A

!!

 

[VendettaRed07]

Against Trump I would consider it a disappointing result if Democrats didn't win the House majority, much less the Senate and the presidency.

Prepare to be disappointed.

 

[Black Mamba]

Cruz Commander! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0i-9D92bzu8

 

[Makai]

One of Jeb's PACs shut down. Don't worry, it's not Right to Rise.

 

[danm999]

Poor Marco. Everyone is taking shots at him within his own party just because he has not completely insane and I charismatic stink on him.

 

[Eidan]

Obama's first SOTU vs his last

Goddamn, we killed him!

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Sometimes it seems like Black Mamba is the only person here that actually interacts and listens to people that don't follow politics 8 hours a day.

You guys are way too deep in your bubbles and I know you'll say "but I have a crazy conservative uncle/cousin/whatever" but do you actually listen to these people and what they are saying or do you just scoff it away?

It's not like the polling is hiding it either. Independents have been disapproving of Obama and Democrats for a while now.

 

[AndyD]

He wants to be just like Reagan (who didn't understand what the song is about either).

I'd expect a C&D shortly, after which he will tweet that Springsteen is a loser, and he has better entertainers at his casinos.

Definitely can see this happening.

 

[Goldmund]

He wants to be just like Reagan (who didn't understand what the song is about either).

I'd expect a C&D shortly, after which he will tweet that Springsteen is a loser, and he has better entertainers at his casinos.

It's the very thing that makes Springsteen's music special. The bleakness and despondence of the lyrics juxtaposed with powerful, energetic and catchy music.

I don't really think he's mumbling the verses in Born in the U.S.A., you'd have to mentally block them out to not notice what the song is about if you listened to it more than once.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Against Trump I would consider it a disappointing result if Democrats didn't win the House majority, much less the Senate and the presidency.

House Dems really need to run the margins in the northeast where most Republicans seats aren't that safe. New York had only 2 Republican congressmen in 2009-2010, Dems need to wipe them out like that to have any chance at capturing back the House. How well have Democrats been recruiting?

 

[Teggy]

After spending the better part of two weeks questioning his Republican presidential rival Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s eligibility to run for President, Donald Trump denied Wednesday that he “drummed up” doubts about Cruz’s status as a "natural-born citizen."

In a phone interview on MSNBC’s “Live With Thomas Roberts,” Trump said the controversy “wasn't drummed up by me. It was drummed up by The Washington Post. There are many lawyers that say he can’t run for president.”

yeahok.gif

 

[GnawtyDog]

I lack the words to describe Cruz's new ad (Phil Robertson of Duck Dynasty endorses Cruz).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0i-9D92bzu8

Nice.

 

[ivysaur12]

House Dems really need to run the margins in the northeast where most Republicans seats aren't that safe. New York had only 2 Republican congressmen in 2009-2010, Dems need to wipe them out like that to have any chance at capturing back the House. How well have Democrats been recruiting?

It's been a mixed bag and not nearly as pitch-perfectly as the Senate recruitment. Kind of a bummer.

In order to have a better shot to take the House, they'd basically need to maximize their entire presence in the North East/New York, take a lot of Florida swing districts, and take back a lot of key seats in Washington state/California. Plus some miracle wins in Wisconsin and Michigan, plus others. A lot of entrenched incumbents would have to lose.

It's really really really tough and probably won't happen unless we get a Trump nomination.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

It's not like the polling is hiding it either. Independents have been disapproving of Obama and Democrats for a while now.

Right, Obama lost the "independent" vote in 2008 but still won comfortably. Not sure what the point of all this is?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-best/dispelling-myths-about-th_b_2105166.html

 

[Makai]

It's the very thing that makes Springsteen's music special. The bleakness and despondence of the lyrics juxtaposed with powerful, energetic and catchy music.

I don't really think he's mumbling the verses in Born in the U.S.A., you'd have to mentally block them out to not notice what the song is about if you listened to it more than once.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bXzFY72wbs

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Right, Obama lost the "independent" vote in 2008 but still won comfortably. Not sure what the point of all this is?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-best/dispelling-myths-about-th_b_2105166.html

Sounds like a pretty slim margin. You also have to remember that Obama has been able to raise turnout among minorities that no other Dem has replicated.

Independents preferred Romney to Obama 50 to 45 percent.

 

[B-Dubs]

Sounds like a pretty slim margin. You also have to remember that Obama has been able to raise turnout among minorities that no other Dem has replicated.

Keep in mind that after Bush a lot of republicans went independent due to embarrassment or whatever, there was a noticeable shift in registration.

 

[ivysaur12]

Sounds like a pretty slim margin. You also have to remember that Obama has been able to raise turnout among minorities that no other Dem has replicated.

What other Dem presidential candidate has had the chance to raise turnout among minority voters?

 

[Elaugaufein]

Thanks to whoever posted that Daily Caller link I unthinkingly clicked on I'm now getting Ben Carson ads on GAF. Thanks for that.

 

[RustyNails]

Trump is now playing Born in the USA at his rallies.

/dead

Ignoring the deep criticism of US government and its handling of Vietnam war and its veterans in the song, it plays well to his sniping of Cruz who was born in Canada. But I'm pretty sure Boss will send a cease and desist soon.

 

[Black Mamba]

Ignoring the deep criticism of US government and its handling of Vietnam war and its veterans in the song, it plays well to his sniping of Cruz who was born in Canada. But I'm pretty sure Boss will send a cease and desist soon.

It actually works for Trump too because one of his big issues has been how veterans are taken care of when they return.

But yeah, it's mostly the chorus being a swipe at Cruz.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Sounds like a pretty slim margin. You also have to remember that Obama has been able to raise turnout among minorities that no other Dem has replicated.

Sure, if independents keep voting against Dems in 2012 and the minority vote drops off and whites who left the party don't return then a Republican will be the next President. That's why everyone was pissing themselves over Rubio three months ago. People just don't think Trump or Cruz can bring it in. If Rubio surges ahead of Super Tuesday the mood here will completely change.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Sure, if independents keep voting against Dems in 2012 and the minority vote drops off and whites who left the party don't return then a Republican will be the next President. That's why everyone was pissing themselves over Rubio three months ago. People just don't think Trump or Cruz can bring it in. If Rubio surges ahead of Super Tuesday the mood here will completely change.

couple with a liberal base that will be furious that the "shill" "corporate hack" won and its a recipe for apathy.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I just want to point out Obama lost the vote of people who were registered as Independent or Undeclared. That's not the same as losing the people who self-identify as Independent. Many people self-identify as independent but register with parties to be able to vote in the primaries. By registration, America looks roughly 40/30/20 D/R/I, by self-identification it looks 40/30/20 I/R/D. You can't win elections losing people who self-identify as independent; Obama definitely won them. Many of them were all those young, first-time voters who didn't identify with the Democratic party until the Obama surge.

 

[Y2Kev]

Omg fundraising totals due 1/31!!! JEBRECKONING

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

What other Dem presidential candidate has had the chance to raise turnout among minority voters?

Hard to imagine it will be Clinton or Sanders.

 

[ivysaur12]

Hard to imagine it will be Clinton or Sanders.

Maybe, maybe not, but you can't say: "Obama has been able to raise turnout among minorities that no other Dem has replicated" when no other Democrat has actually been in a presidential election since Obama ran for office.

Literally no other Democrat (or Republican since Romney!) has had the chance to try to replicate Obama's coalition.

 

[Black Mamba]

I just want to point out Obama lost the vote of people who were registered as Independent or Undeclared. That's not the same as losing the people who self-identify as Independent. Many people self-identify as independent but register with parties to be able to vote in the primaries. By registration, America looks roughly 40/30/20 D/R/I, by self-identification it looks 40/30/20 I/R/D. You can't win elections losing people who self-identify as independent; Obama definitely won them. Many of them were all those young, first-time voters who didn't identify with the Democratic party until the Obama surge.

In reality, it's more like 50D-45R-5I or around there.

Most people who self-identify as independent are not at all. They're partisan and reliable votes one way or another.

The moderate vote is more crucial these days. And the reality is that only 5-10% of voters can be swung. The rest are locked in and it is about turnout.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Maybe, maybe not, but you can't say: "Obama has been able to raise turnout among minorities that no other Dem has replicated" when no other Democrat has actually been in a presidential election since Obama ran for office.

What about before him?

 

[Mrs. Manky]

If you can understand how things shape self-perception you can change actions. There's nothing you can do to convince someone who just hates black people outright, there are things you can do to convince someone who's more willing to believe black people are abusing the system and that should be punished even if that willingness comes from racism. It's what Clinton tried with Welfare Reform and Tough on Crime , even if I think his actual methods there were god awful.

A Muslim woman attempted to convince people at a Trump rally that Muslims are people, too.

And we see what happened.

I appreciate your appeal to the better side of man. I wish I could agree with you.

 

[ivysaur12]

What about before him?

Maybe, but that also ignores that Obama might have fundamentally shifted the ways in which certain minority groups view public participation.

Kay Hagan, a white woman, got 96% of the black vote in her 2014 election while Tillis got 3%. Romney got 4% of the black vote in 2012.

So, there. Kay Hagan is the key to minority outreach. Hagan 2016.

 

[User 463088]

What other Dem presidential candidate has had the chance to raise turnout among minority voters?

I think with a Trump candidacy, minorities would be engaged simply to make sure that he doesn't win. Presumably, the only way Sanders wins the nomination is to engage enough minorities, specifically AA. I do think one of the greatest things about Obama for America is how they've turned out the minority vote in two elections. My belief is that if someone votes in two GE elections, it's become enough of a habit that they'll (hopefully) do it again.

I've also been thinking about how much it sucks, at least from the Dem side, that Iowa is the first state. It totally doesn't look like the Democratic party. It's older and whiter than the rest of our coalition. That's neither here nor there, though. Just something I was thinking about at my doctor's appointment.

 

[RustyNails]

I just read that Bernie's medicare for all has a price tag of $15t. That is an unimaginable amount of money and really curious how you can achieve that. Anyone have a link to that flash game on NYT during 2012 where you fiñagled with the budget to close the deficit? Or something to that effect.

 

[B-Dubs]

I just read that Bernie's medicare for all has a price tag of $15t. That is an unimaginable amount of money and really curious how you can achieve that. Anyone have a link to that flash game on NYT during 2012 where you fiñagled with the budget to close the deficit? Or something to that effect.

It's why everyone keeps bugging him for those numbers explaining how he's going to pay for that.

 

[Foffy]

I just read that Bernie's medicare for all has a price tag of $15t. That is an unimaginable amount of money and really curious how you can achieve that. Anyone have a link to that flash game on NYT during 2012 where you fiñagled with the budget to close the deficit? Or something to that effect.

Doesn't our current system actually plan for us to spend even more money than what Bernie proposes? I also think that exact number has been disputed, or at least has other things added in it.

 

[Makai]

I just read that Bernie's medicare for all has a price tag of $15t. That is an unimaginable amount of money and really curious how you can achieve that. Anyone have a link to that flash game on NYT during 2012 where you fiñagled with the budget to close the deficit? Or something to that effect.

If that's over 10 years, no biggie. Hundreds of thousands to millions of job losses from former employees of private insurance companies, though.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I just read that Bernie's medicare for all has a price tag of $15t. That is an unimaginable amount of money and really curious how you can achieve that. Anyone have a link to that flash game on NYT during 2012 where you fiñagled with the budget to close the deficit? Or something to that effect.

The rumours are a universal 9% payroll tax, which on average produces net savings for households earning up to ~$175,000 a year; but I hear there's some reluctance in the campaign to let the figures release yet because they don't think $175,000 is a good enough break even point and want to find funding from other sources to get a $250,000 break even point; to avoid the "taxing middle class families" headlines.

EDIT: And yes, that's 15t over 10 years, or 1.5t a year.

 

[Into]

What other Dem presidential candidate has had the chance to raise turnout among minority voters?

None.

After the Obama hangover, how do you get blacks excited about Hillary or Sanders? Neither has his appeal, not just his skin color but his charisma and likability. Who walks around and believes that either will serve their issues when Obama and "Change" did not in 2008?

The Left is hoping, begging, that Trump will say something to entice large amount of minorities to go against him. That is the reason why liberals early on thought Trump would be a easy win. And why they constantly try, ever so hard, to bring a new quote from him to the forefront: "Ooooh look what this nazi said now! WOW HE IS SO DONE!"

I said it months ago, but i think especially black voters will feel left out this GE. The focus will be on the economy, terror and immigration. Without blacks turning up to vote in large numbers, dems will lose