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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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B

Basileus777

Member
B-Dubs said:
Do you really think Trump would let it go that easy? Or anyone else up there for that matter? Cruz is the most hated guy in the party, Rubio especially hates him. You think he won't want to join in on the beat down?
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That's a good point. I might actually trust someone like Rubio to deliver this sort of attack more effectively in a debate.
 
M

Makai

Member
vicissitudes said:
I think Trump will be smart about it and let the other Republicans attack Cruz. He's above scandals like this, tbh.
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They're not going to. They need Cruz in the race so Trump doesn't lock up the vote. Jeb, Rubio, Kasich, and Christie will attack each other. Carson will be asleep.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
GnawtyDog said:
The label helps a narrative. A strong narrative along with the label is what the GOP will use.

Higher taxes to pay for his programs, including a raise on middle class taxes (and all the misinformation that will come with it), subsidized this, subsided that... universal healthcare bla bla bla...worse than Obamacare on steroids bla bla bla. The narrative writes itself. I think NOT being naive about this is not being "anti-sanders"....."Hillary shill". It's just the reality of what will happen if he gets the nomination. Hec, Hillary will push him on this if it becomes a closely contested primary...I mean you have Chelsea already throwing shade about it (poor form in my view) but that's politics. He will be pushed hard, very hard on this. There hasn't been the need for a large scale smearing campaign on him yet.
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don't forget, in all of the bolded, that the GOP will be various levels of subtle in implying that these proposals are shit because The Blacks (or The Mexicans, or The Chinese) get them

Bam Bam Baklava said:
I think the real question is who wouldn't be in some way? Women in general, just about any minority group in some way, the poor, LBGT community, and whoever else I'm forgetting.
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also don't forget literally anyone with a disability
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Black Mamba said:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/politics/ted-cruz-wall-street-loan-senate-bid-2012.html

lololol. Cruz asked his wife to get a loan from her work and then hid it so no one in the Primary could attack him for being funded by big special interest.

But now it's come out. This dude is so fucking shady.
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It was a fully secured margin loan, and he disclosed it in July 2012. He didn't disclose the source to the FEC--which he apparently should have--but he didn't hide it from the public, either. The conspiracy theory angle to this story just doesn't stand up to scrutiny. (Here's Cruz's response to questions about the NYT article, btw.)

It was even mentioned in the media in 2013.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Makai said:
They're not going to. They need Cruz in the race so Trump doesn't lock up the vote. Jeb, Rubio, Kasich, and Christie will attack each other. Carson will be asleep.
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I just had a revelation that carson is basically jigglypuff. He tries to sing his opponent to sleep with his singsong lullaby but he falls asleep himself
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
adam387 said:
It's....it's just what we've come to. Really. That's all we can say. (And ya boy we got a coach!)
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Is this how people felt when W did something stupid?

Also... I'm shocked that we actually got Hue. I almost feel.. Hope Adam. What is this feeling? And how are you feeling? I was wondering if you were ok.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
FloydtheFathead said:
Is this how people felt when W did something stupid?

Also... I'm shocked that we actually got Hue. I almost feel.. Hope Adam. What is this feeling? And how are you feeling? I was wondering if you were ok.
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Cleveland is where hope goes to die.

So it's 42/40

Not as bad as i had a gut feeling it would be. Interestingly, Bernie hasn't gained any real support, just Hillary's has gotten a bit softer. Interesting. She just needs to firm up her support.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
adam387 said:
Cleveland is where hope goes to die.

So it's 42/40

Not as bad as i had a gut feeling it would be. Interestingly, Bernie hasn't gained any real support, just Hillary's has gotten a bit softer. Interesting. She just needs to firm up her support.
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Iowa gonna be lit this year. If trump and bernie win there....damn bruh

I have no idea how the delegates and super delegates work though
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Black Republican said:
Iowa gonna be lit this year. If trump and bernie win there....damn bruh

I have no idea how the delegates and super delegates work though
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Super Delegates aren't tied to the results, so they can go however the wind blows.

For the Democrats, basically you go to one of the 1781 presincts, depending on where the person lives. They break the people up into groups. Hillary's would be in one area, Bernie's would be in another, and Governor McSexy's would be in another. If anyone has less than 15%, they have to redistribute to another candidate or they have to leave. Then, they count and see who has the most people. The precinct delegates are then selected from the group of supporters, and then the whole thing is reported to the county/party. The presinct delegates will later caucus at the county level. Then the delegates selected there will caucus at the district and then state level. Then, the Iowa branch of the DNC will select the 58 that will represent Iowa at the DNC Convention.

We'll never know the "popular vote" only the number of state delegates each gets. Obama, in 2008, had 940 state delegates, Edwards had 744, and Hillary had 737. So, for DNC delegates, Obama ended up with 16, Hillary had 15 (even though she had fewer state delegates than Edwards) and Edwards got 14. .

It's freaking stupid. Just have a damn primary and be done with it.

Edit: Here's a way better explanation. It goes into the GOP as well, because I don't follow them nearly as closely.

http://www.iowacaucus.biz/IA_Caucus_Howitworks.html
 
U

User 463088

Banned
FloydtheFathead said:
Your inner Cleveland prepares you for the worst and agreed. It could be worse.
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There is no emotion, there is peace.
There is no ignorance, there is knowledge.
There is no passion, there is serenity.
There is no chaos, there is harmony.
There is no death, there is the unbelievable suckatude that results from being an Ohioan.
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
adam387 said:
There is no emotion, there is peace.
There is no ignorance, there is knowledge.
There is no passion, there is serenity.
There is no chaos, there is harmony.
There is no death, there is the unbelievable suckatude that results from being an Ohioan.
Click to expand...

Even in VA, I feel the call of the Buckeye.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Sanders campaign have a press conference at 6 PM to announce a "hugeyoog" endorsement. No idea who it'll be, but cue rampant speculation about Warren. :D
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
Metaphoreus said:
It was a fully secured margin loan, and he disclosed it in July 2012. He didn't disclose the source to the FEC--which he apparently should have--but he didn't hide it from the public, either. The conspiracy theory angle to this story just doesn't stand up to scrutiny. (Here's Cruz's response to questions about the NYT article, btw.)

It was even mentioned in the media in 2013.
Click to expand...
I've been following politics for more than 10 years, but I'm still surprised by the various ways that politicians can get tripped up. Sometimes all it takes is a high profile misrepresentation of facts at the wrong time. I can't help but be somewhat reminded of McCain in his 2000 run when Bush's people smeared him in various ways leading into the South Carolina primary. Cruz had appeared to be on the rise, but this and the birther thing must be hurting him in the polls.

Oh well, it is what it is. Cruz is trying to represent himself as a grassroots candidate and yet he's as elite as elite gets. The 'scandal' will blow over, but he's going to have a week of coverage about his income and his wife's job.
 
M

Makai

Member
sc0la said:
I just had a revelation that carson is basically jigglypuff. He tries to sing his opponent to sleep with his singsong lullaby but he falls asleep himself
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Yes. That is who I gave him when someone asked for Smash theme. "needs his rest"
 
M

Maledict

Member
Going to be slightly controversial, and say tonight's debate will be bad for Trump. The smaller stage will hurt him a lot, as will the proximity to the Iowa caucus. I don't think by any means it will be the end of him or his campaign, but he will come out of the debate worse than when he went in.
 
M

Makai

Member
Maledict said:
Going to be slightly controversial, and say tonight's debate will be bad for Trump. The smaller stage will hurt him a lot, as will the proximity to the Iowa caucus. I don't think by any means it will be the end of him or his campaign, but he will come out of the debate worse than when he went in.
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It's only two less people than last time. He did great then.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Metaphoreus said:
It was a fully secured margin loan, and he disclosed it in July 2012. He didn't disclose the source to the FEC--which he apparently should have--but he didn't hide it from the public, either. The conspiracy theory angle to this story just doesn't stand up to scrutiny. (Here's Cruz's response to questions about the NYT article, btw.)

It was even mentioned in the media in 2013.
Click to expand...

As if the GOP base needs a conspiracy theory to actually stand up to any scrutiny to become enraged by it.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
Makai said:
How the fuck does Santorum have 0.0%, anyway? He was the runner up four years ago with 4 million votes!!!
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His candidacy 4 years ago was powered by evangelical protest votes against Romney the Mormon. Santorum was never viewed as being electable, so Cruz was easily able to eat his lunch and recruit the evangelical establishment.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
DMR poll is interesting. Basically a chunk of Clinton supporters moved from her to undecided. It doesn't exactly suggest surging enthusiasm for Sanders but a hesitancy for Clinton as the rubber starts to meet the road I guess? Or overall?

You can't vote undecided so it all seems really up in the air.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Most striking is the continued belief even by most Sanders supporters that Hillary is ultimately going to be the nominee. Also electability.

On the stump, Clinton routinely makes the case that her experience and toughness make her the Democrats’ best choice to take on the Republicans’ candidate next November. The Iowa Poll suggests her message is resonating. Among her supporters, 64 percent say it is extremely important that they have confidence in their candidate to win the general election. Just 35 percent of Sanders’ supporters feel that way.
Click to expand...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Ground game?

In the past 24 hours, I've seen a few commentators mention ground game in Iowa. Nate Silver, Heer Jeet, and the BleedingHeartland blog, have commented on how both Dems' operations are outclassing anything the GOP is doing there.

Nate tweeted: "Sure seems like the Democratic ground games in Iowa are an order of magnitude better than the Republican ones."

Heer responds: "That's what the reporting indicates. Why is that? It makes no sense why well-financed GOP campaigns have weak ground game."

DesMoinesDem: "..while Republican candidates and the super-PACs supporting them have sent tons of direct mail to Iowans, the almost total lack of a ground game for most of the campaigns is striking. Some candidates (Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina) lack the resources for a strong GOTV effort. Others are putting their chips on New Hampshire (John Kasich) or have a decent staff but too many weaknesses as a candidate (Jeb Bush). Donald Trump and Ted Cruz seem to be the only Republicans running any kind of real ground game, but even they have nothing like what the leading Democratic candidates had going before the 2008 caucuses."

I am really amused by this.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
HylianTom said:
Ground game?

In the past 24 hours, I've seen a few commentators mention ground game in Iowa. Nate Silver, Heer Jeet, and the BleedingHeartland blog, have commented on how both Dems' operations are outclassing anything the GOP is doing there.

Nate tweeted: "Sure seems like the Democratic ground games in Iowa are an order of magnitude better than the Republican ones."

Heer responds: "That's what the reporting indicates. Why is that? It makes no sense why well-financed GOP campaigns have weak ground game."

DesMoinesDem: "..while Republican candidates and the super-PACs supporting them have sent tons of direct mail to Iowans, the almost total lack of a ground game for most of the campaigns is striking. Some candidates (Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina) lack the resources for a strong GOTV effort. Others are putting their chips on New Hampshire (John Kasich) or have a decent staff but too many weaknesses as a candidate (Jeb Bush). Donald Trump and Ted Cruz seem to be the only Republicans running any kind of real ground game, but even they have nothing like what the leading Democratic candidates had going before the 2008 caucuses."

I am really amused by this.
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lets be honest their people are going to vote come November. Democrats need the push and shove.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
Clinton’s attacks produce windfall of campaign cash for Sanders.

Washington Post said:
Hillary Clinton’s new barrage against Bernie Sanders, the Democratic presidential primary opponent she has all but ignored through most of her campaign, is having an effect — though probably not the one she intended.

Sanders’s underdog campaign said it is seeing a surge of contributions as a direct result of the new attention it is getting from the Democratic front-runner, with money coming in at a clip nearly four times the average daily rate reported in the last quarter of 2015.
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Lol. Just like when Bernie raked in the cash from the datagate attacks, over the employee that the DNC recommended :).
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
lets be honest their people are going to vote come November. Democrats need the push and shove.
Click to expand...
Agree. I'm just astounded. GOTV helps, and the GOP will need every bit available, especially since geographical logistics are tougher for them.

-==-

Also:

Sam Wang has published his breakdown on how the delegate math could shake-out:
GOP Nomination Rules Tilt the Playing Field toward Donald Trump

The pressure for Everyone Not Named Rubio to get out after New Hampshire is going to be insane.
 
Y

Yamauchi

Banned
Damn that Bernie endorsement from The Nation is good.

On foreign policy, Clinton is certainly seasoned, but her experience hasn’t prevented her from getting things wrong. Clinton now says that her 2002 vote to authorize George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq was a mistake, but she apparently learned little from it. Clinton was a leading advocate for overthrowing Moammar El-Gadhafi in Libya, leaving behind a failed state that provides ISIS with an alternative base. She supported calls for the United States to help oust Bashar al-Assad in Syria, an approach that has added fuel to a horrific civil war. She now advocates a confrontation with Russia in Syria by calling for a no-fly zone. Her support for President Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran was marred by an explicit rejection of better relations with that country and bellicose pledges to provide Israel with more arms. If elected, Clinton will be another “war president” at a time when America desperately needs peace.
Click to expand...
 
H

Holmes

Member
Per DRM/Selzer:
A caveat for Sanders is that his support appears to be concentrated in three Iowa counties—Black Hawk, Johnson, and Story—that are home to state universities. Those counties, where Sanders leads Clinton, 52 percent to 30 percent, account for 27 percent of his vote but just 21 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers, underscoring the extent to which Sanders is relying on younger voters, a notoriously difficult group to turn out.
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He's running up the margins in university towns. Doesn't bode well for his delegate count if he can't make inroads in older, rural areas.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
Ben Carson is still bleeding staffers. His finance chairman just resigned. How much longer will he stay in? Iowa could look completely different with him out.
 
T

thefro

Member
Veritigo_X said:
Ben Carson is still bleeding staffers. His finance chairman just resigned. How much longer will he stay in? Iowa could look completely different with him out.
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Carson has enough money to stick around for a while and have the campaign pay for his book tour even if he can't legit win.
 
U

User 406

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
The finance chair who was making $20K a MONTH. I'd keep that job until the bitter end.
Click to expand...

Well, maybe Ben Carson HQ was like this:
Roberto-Pratices-His-Stabbing-Technique-While-Fry-Freaks-Out-In-An-Insane-Asylum-On-Futurama.gif
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Holmes said:
Hillary voters want to win the election. What do Sanders supporters want, a golden goose?
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I'm really fearful that Sanders would get elected, pass nothing in the face of an obstructionist Congress, then all the youngin's supporting him now would be awoken to the harsh realities of slow progress against a unified opposition.

I'm kidding, they'll just say Bernie's a corporate shill and not show up for the next election.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
i just realized Jeb's daughter's addiction was to crack cocaine and not heroin (i assumed). I wonder if he'll mention that, or just say "addicted to drugs"

the people of color just wanna know :)
 
H

Holmes

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I'm really fearful that Sanders would get elected, pass nothing in the face of an obstructionist Congress, then all the youngin's supporting him now would be awoken to the harsh realities of slow progress against a unified opposition.

I'm kidding, they'll just say Bernie's a corporate shill and not show up for the next election.
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I don't think so. They'd realize it's the Republican Congress' fault, and they're the bad guys....only they should be realizing this now. And Bernie should be working to help defeat them. But he's not even trying, and isn't putting any effort in his revolution like Obama was during the primaries (registering people to vote and fundraising for the Democratic downballot).
 
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