Yea but she wasn't running against a New Yorker who could hit her like that.
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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Yea but she wasn't running against a New Yorker who could hit her like that.
Took the words out of my mouth.
If this is an indication of how they plan on uniting, well.. good luck. Their bracket will stay muddied.
Veritigo_X
Member
That's similar to what Cruz was trying to say, I think. But yeah, you guys are right that it's different with a New Yorker there to hit back.
The response could've been a little better (he should've talked about first responders), but all in all it was pretty good. It's kinda weird cheering on something Trump said, but in this case I think it's acceptable.
Black Republican
Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Doubt it will go anywhere. No different to the case brought earlier challenging Clinton's ballet access in Illinois.
Not really. Ever since 9/11 there's always been some strange disconnect between the anti-terrorism rhetoric from the Republicans and the base that on one hand acts oh-so-concerned about NYC - a place most of the fly-over and deep south Republican base has never set foot in - and disparaging the place for being some kind of cess-pool of liberal and non-christian ideals.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Meh, I needed some sleep last night if I really posted almost the same message twice within two posts.
Coriolanus
Banned
Yknow.
Trump's theme song was the first time i got legit worried about that creature getting the nom. Not necessarily due to the odds of him winning, but... Fuck man, proud nationalism scares the crap outta me. Thats a narrative that can acquire traction very easily, especially with Scary Terrorism around thr corner. Dude's probably gonna focus heavily on that/jingoism in the general.
Also lolcruz
Trump's theme song was the first time i got legit worried about that creature getting the nom. Not necessarily due to the odds of him winning, but... Fuck man, proud nationalism scares the crap outta me. Thats a narrative that can acquire traction very easily, especially with Scary Terrorism around thr corner. Dude's probably gonna focus heavily on that/jingoism in the general.
Also lolcruz
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/
I read through their methodology, and I get it... But I have a hard time getting it when Trump is up in the un-skewed polls, yet is so significantly down in the 538 model.
I read through their methodology, and I get it... But I have a hard time getting it when Trump is up in the un-skewed polls, yet is so significantly down in the 538 model.
Doesn't have to go anywhere. The fact that the suit even exists is harmful.
It doesn't need to go anywhere to help Trump out. Where there's smoke, there's fire and this will just help Trump paint the issue as a further liability to the GOP if they choose Cruz as the nominee. Trump has been given more than enough ammo (eligibility, Goldman Sachs, NY values) to take care of Cruz, he just has to execute and hit him hard until Iowa.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I wonder if 538 will talk about how their prediction about how the establishment would chose Cruz over Trump was entirely wrong or how Trump would make Cruz acceptable to the establishment was absurdly wrong. If the party has decided on Trump over Cruz, that has to help Trump a huge amount in 538's modeling ideas...
Trump also takes a clear lead over Rubio in betting markets. 35% for Trump, 32% for Rubio:
http://predictwise.com/
Trump also takes a clear lead over Rubio in betting markets. 35% for Trump, 32% for Rubio:
http://predictwise.com/
And_Gignac
Member
Like in any major industrialized-western country, establishment politicians and parties are not really popular. Endorsements from the "political class" mean jack shit in this election, it actually may be detrimental.
Bill O'Reilly vows to flee to Ireland if Bernie Sanders wins
Another reason for Clinton-GAF to switch sides!
gutter_trash
Banned
how can a ubber Capitalist lover hate on New York City, the epicenter of Capitalism?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
...c'mon, that's gotta sell it to y'all. This could be your one shot.
Maybe if it was Hannity.
Everyone deserves the opportunity to see Baryshnikov at least once.
Republic of Ezo
Member
I have to say, that is tempting. My dad is a huge O'Reilly fan.
Bel Marduk
Banned
You can see the exact moment Cruz soul left through his eyes hahaha
Good thing he was some kind of debate titan
The guy is obviously too arrogant for its own good.Frank the Great
Banned
Because gay people, brown people, brown gay people, and women who like to control their reproductive systems live there.
You can see the exact moment Cruz soul left through his eyes hahaha
Good thing he was some kind of debate titan
This was Trump's best put down in a debate. The "shut the fuck up Jeb, you suck" was effective, but not very graceful, and didn't even work that well last debate and was getting old. Last night Trump barely even noticed Jeb, just casually hit him with a go back in your corner.
Which btw - NO IDEA what Jeb was doing last night. He was on the fringes of the stage, and he acted like it.
It's just Because trumps empire could collapse so fast. Underperform in Iowa because his ground org sucks and his fans are just...fans and not voters...he drops in NH and then it's over.
I think it's high time silver started acknowledging that the charade has gone on too long to be a charade but I'm still not sure I really believe.
He's starting to act more like a politician though.
I think it's high time silver started acknowledging that the charade has gone on too long to be a charade but I'm still not sure I really believe.
He's starting to act more like a politician though.
I get where Nate's coming from, but Trump has been leading since August. This stopped being funny two months ago.
I mean, yes. But he was relatively good the prior debate, not sure what changed.
I may just be missing something, but from last night on twitter:
Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 12h12 hours ago
The more things change... The more they remain the same...
Nate replies:
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 12h12 hours ago
@ForecasterEnten: That seems pretty good for Cruz, once you adjust for Drudge's pro-Trump house effect.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Especially considering how bruised Cruz was by the end of the night. Trump hit him so hard he didn't say shit for 20 minutes and then Rubio slapped him around a bit at the very end.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Man, Nate's really going to go down with this ship.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
While it sure looked that way to me too, the analysis today seems to frame the debate more like a punch-for-punch Rocky fight between Trump and Cruz.
Every story mentions the 9/11 haymaker but in counter to Cruz's birther takedown and no mentions that it took the wind out of his sails for the rest of the debate.
It's partly because if Trump dismantles Cruz then the horse race is over and partly that people still refuse to believe Trump could possibly win the nomination.
I am sure he knows that and he should. If the rules of the past end up working then Nate will be right in the end. If not then he will admit in time.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The "Cruz is going to win the nomination!" shtick he's got going isn't based on any reality though. The party hates Cruz more than Trump, but the main fan of "The Party Decides" thinks Cruz is going to be the nominee?
Vox had a thing about how Cruz won the debate last night too, I sat there trying to figure out what debate they were watching.
"current" reality. Nate is basing his "prediction" based off normal cycle reality + the bolded.
*Do you think Nate is right on the Democratic race?
eBay Huckster
Member
.
one of the Stans would've brought it up before your post if it was remotely meaningful
Even looking at Laz's quote, it's one hell of a stretch to make that a hit on Sanders.
The main thing missing from Nate's model is a variable that accounts for attitude of the electorate towards its own party leadership. I think he'll realize this and use the events as a way to discuss the difficulty of model building.
I've been on the Trump train for a while, and there's still a part of me that stops and asks, "is this really going to happen?"
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Is he saying Cruz will win the nom?
What's posted here is him saying Cruz is the most likely winner of Iowa. Nate's whole thing since this started is that predicting the whole thing this early is impossible.
If Trump win's its more or less an anomaly like Goldwater.
Ohio:
Clinton 53%
Sanders 37%
Undecided 10%
Favorability:
Clinton: 66-21 (+45)
Sanders: 58-23 (+35)
Racial makeup:
White: 77%
African-American: 18%
Other: 5%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/DemToplines.pdf
Clinton 53%
Sanders 37%
Undecided 10%
Favorability:
Clinton: 66-21 (+45)
Sanders: 58-23 (+35)
Racial makeup:
White: 77%
African-American: 18%
Other: 5%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/DemToplines.pdf
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