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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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Whereas for the rest of the world it's kind of a big deal to file criminal charges against a former cabinet official for what seems like, at worst, some carelessness on the part of Clinton and her aides. I think to a sane person, if you were going to charge the Secretary of State who served under the sitting president with a felony, there would have to be something there to really warrant it, right? It's not just, "Do we have the bare minimum we need to charge under this statute?"

Hi! Have i ever told you about this little-known but glorious place called South America?

Fernando Lugo wasn't even 3 years ago. This, to some extent, is what's happening in Brazil right now. We do that kinda shit to sitting presidents.

Republicans have a lot of catching up to do.

As for Trump, he's George Wallace reborn. If he wins, the white supremacists win. That's not even close to a least worst outcome.
Got the wrong Wallace, mate.

(while looking for trump/wallace pshop mashups, found this. Pidg plz.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
Kasich bringing up Strom Thurmond in a positive way set off all sorts of alarm bells.

Donald Trump used to be the least worst option... And then his tax plan came out and then he said he'd stop all Muslim immigration. I think I want Jeb Bush back.
 

User 406

Banned
Kasich bringing up Strom Thurmond in a positive way set off all sorts of alarm bells.

With one hand he accepts federal dollars for Ohio, while righteously proclaiming that he's doing something for the poor, and with the other he makes sure that black people in Ohio get as little of it as possible. He's truly awful, but leftists still fall for his moderate schtick.


Got the wrong Wallace, mate.

(while looking for trump/wallace pshop mashups, found this. Pidg plz.

mel-gibson-mental-illness.jpg
 
The sanders and Trump spikes in Iowa for the CNN poll are based on hilariously flawed assumptions of record breaking turnout that surpass 08 by at least 50,000 participants. Without that Trump and Sanders are still behind. it's BS.

That CNN poll also includes more men than women voting in the Democratic sub-set. Which is almost impossible given the parties' demographics.
 

HylianTom

Banned
That CNN poll also includes more men than women voting in the Democratic sub-set. Which is almost impossible given the parties' demographics.
And not just a few more men; they've reversed the gender gap by double digits.

I'm racking my brain, but can't remember in recent memory any time where Silver, Cohn, Wang, Enten, etc have all criticized a poll's methodology so openly. As soon as it came out, they were on Twitter dissecting it.
 

CCS

Banned
And not just a few more men; they've reversed the gender gap by double digits.

I'm racking my brain, but can't remember in recent memory any time where Silver, Cohn, Wang, Enten, etc have all criticized a poll's methodology so openly. As soon as it came out, they were on Twitter dissecting it.

I agree with them too. While it may be uncharitable to say this, I really can't think of any reason to use such a turnout model except to ensure you get a result that will generate headlines.
 

rich lowry's hobby horse. what a total loser. i mean, this guy. his publication is failing, circulating is falling. can you believe it? this guy, no really, listen, this guy once said he felt 'starbursts' coming through the tv to the men of america when sarah palin winked during her acceptance speech in 2008. yeah, strange. can you believe it? total weirdo. not very classy. is he even married? now he's on that fox show with the blonde, no no, i like fox, just not that show. they've been, generally been good to me, you know Sean is a great friend, just tremendous. i golf with him every once in a while, doesn't beat me. anyway, but rich is on there every night just spouting loser lies about me. and my polls keep going up, and his publication, i wont name them because some of you may still like them, but they are just collapsing. just very sad, very sad and pathetic.
 
And not just a few more men; they've reversed the gender gap by double digits.

I'm racking my brain, but can't remember in recent memory any time where Silver, Cohn, Wang, Enten, etc have all criticized a poll's methodology so openly. As soon as it came out, they were on Twitter dissecting it.

I remember some fairly unanimous criticism of Rasmussen in 08 and Gallup in 2012 but their "house effect" was based on some well known (and flawed) assumptions and easily corrected for since it was so consistent.

I don't know WHAT this poll is though. No one could have put together something this bad by accident. It was clearly designed to create headlines and is really transparent about it.
 
How is Cruz trying to argue that Trump's immigration position is amnesty after praising it not too long ago? Out of everything to attack Trump on from the right, immigration should be the last.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Kasich bringing up Strom Thurmond in a positive way set off all sorts of alarm bells.

Donald Trump used to be the least worst option... And then his tax plan came out and then he said he'd stop all Muslim immigration. I think I want Jeb Bush back.

Jeb "George W. is my foreign policy advisor" Bush? That Jeb? Because that is far from least worst.
 
I remember some fairly unanimous criticism of Rasmussen in 08 and Gallup in 2012 but their "house effect" was based on some well known (and flawed) assumptions and easily corrected for since it was so consistent.

I don't know WHAT this poll is though. No one could have put together something this bad by accident. It was clearly designed to create headlines and is really transparent about it.

On top of that, the actual reality of voter registration numbers doesn't match this happening on either side. If there are going to be 100,000 new GOP voters and 50,000 new Dem voters....why haven't they registered? I'm not sure where they pulled these numbers from, unless their screener was "How bad you want to vote for Trump/Sanders?"
 

docbon

Member
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/...per-pac-offers-off-record-news-tips/79131372/

Hillary Clinton’s super PAC has tried to “flag” stories about Bernie Sanders, but the group does not want its name attached.

...

Wessel offered to send more information on Sanders' record if the paper was interested in the story.

When the Free Press asked Wessel by email why he was providing off-the-record tips, Wessel asked to have a phone conversation.

During a Thursday afternoon phone conversation with Wessel, the Free Press declined to take off-the-record tips.

bnxo9Pp.png


The word of the week is optics.
 
It depends on how the electoral college shakes out. If Trump loses all but a few states, I think the crazier end of the party will realize "we didn't go far right enough" actually isn't the reason they lost in '08 and '12 and we'll see a semblance (emphasis on semblance) of normalcy from the party. I could see Tom Cotton doing pretty well.

If Trump does better than McCain/Romney did, I think all gloves are off and we'll end up with a frontrunner who is full fascist. Moreso than Trump. The "establishment" will almost definitely prop up their own candidate, assuming they don't this time around.
They'll never acknowledge that. The base will simply become more insular, more angry, more resentful. Voters who want to deport Muslims or round up Hispanics aren't simply going to turn to a Jeb Bush type politician in four years. The base always flirts with disaster, however republicans are usually good at bringing them back from the brink with acceptable establishment candidates. They simply don't have one this year. Maybe they will in 2020. Or maybe the party will split.

Ironically some democrats are displaying a similar refusal to acknowledge reality. Sanders is another Mondale or Humphries type candidate who cannot win but inspires some level of love from certain types of white college kids and older activists.
 
I kinda of feel like Trumps ego is why he's running for president, but that his policy stances and bombastic approach are more about the path that's getting him there. Just like he screwed up saying second corinthians, I think much of what he's doing is an act. For this reason I think his actual presidency is a crap shoot. He'll have to center himself during the national anyway. I really feel like nobody know what we're getting in a trump presidency.

I feel like a Cruz presidency is much more scary because I know what that asshole would try to do from day one.

I think this is true. In hindsight, I wonder if his Birtherism was just a test balloon, and what he found out was that there was racism that was exploitable. And given that, he went all-in on the Build a Wall angle.
 

Maledict

Member
Again, I'm really not sure why anyone thinks Trump will 'centre' himself in the general. Whenver anyone has questioned his policies, he hasn't backed away - he's doubled down on them. He's been saying the same things about China, about about American world leadership for over 30 years now.

He's not some genius politician. He's a throwback to the ear of ugly American isolationism, and that's not going to change in the general.

The guys just a bombastic, egomaniacal racist feasting on the wreckage the American right wing has been pushy for decades. There's absolutely no sign that he would change, in any way shape or form, and I think people need to stop holding out hope for that.
 

East Lake

Member
Rich dudes coming around to Trump (or possibly Cruz).

As the candidates that Wall Street backed with millions of dollars have stumbled and banks have become punchlines and punching bags, financiers are wrapping their heads around what life with the New York billionaire or Texas senator in the Oval Office might look like for them. And some don’t mind what they see.

One reason is the toughness that Democrats have promised, with Bernie Sanders planning to take apart the mightiest firms and Hillary Clinton pledging new fees and rules. Another is that Cruz and Trump have enjoyed longstanding ties to business and finance.

‘Cockeyed Optimist’

“Hold on, hold on, hold on,” billionaire investor Ken Langone said this week when asked if the success of the Republican front-runners upset him.

For one thing, according to Langone, a Home Depot Inc. co-founder who’s given New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s super PAC at least $250,000, anything can change before the primaries. Life goes on even under President Trump, Langone said, before getting even sunnier.

“The cockeyed optimist that I am, maybe, just maybe, he might turn out to be one of the greatest surprises America ever had,” he said. “You got to be optimistic.”

Christie supporter Joe Grano, who used to run UBS Group AG’s U.S. wealth-management business and now heads business-strategy adviser Centurion Holdings, could adjust to Trump. He’s a good negotiator and wouldn’t be “as dangerous as some people think,” Grano said.

A person involved in government relations at one of the largest U.S. banks, who asked not to be identified, said Trump might be bad overall but wouldn’t come after Wall Street out of the gate like Sanders. Even donors more worried about Trump didn’t focus on his jokes about women, references to Mexicans as rapists or his call to halt Muslim immigration.

Cruz doesn’t frighten one former Goldman Sachs executive who watched the senator help his wife, Heidi, woo clients to a unit that caters to people and families with average investments at the firm of more than $40 million. The senator knows bankers, went to the same Ivy League schools, understands their needs and has taken their money, he said.

Damgard, who’s been a friend of the billionaire Koch brothers for decades, said before his New Zealand golf game started that he prefers Bush, Rubio or Christie.
“But I don’t think either Cruz or Trump are necessarily the end of the world,” he said. After Huka Lodge, he was heading to play at a place called Cape Kidnappers. “They’d be so much better than the other side.”

Plus a delusional rich dude.

Investor Rob Arnott, a libertarian who supports Cruz and despises Trump, has a theory about why his moderate peers might accept the billionaire.
“The Republican establishment views Trump as someone sufficiently inept that he’ll need them, and they can control the agenda,” said Arnott, who heads asset management firm Research Affiliates LLC, a sub-adviser for Pacific Investment Management Co. “Their view is: Better somebody who has no obvious core political values.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...sweat-wall-street-s-big-republican-donors-say
 

Ecotic

Member
Again, I'm really not sure why anyone thinks Trump will 'centre' himself in the general. Whenver anyone has questioned his policies, he hasn't backed away - he's doubled down on them. He's been saying the same things about China, about about American world leadership for over 30 years now.

He's not some genius politician. He's a throwback to the ear of ugly American isolationism, and that's not going to change in the general.

The guys just a bombastic, egomaniacal racist feasting on the wreckage the American right wing has been pushy for decades. There's absolutely no sign that he would change, in any way shape or form, and I think people need to stop holding out hope for that.

I could see a dramatic change in emphasis without disavowing his past positions. What comes to mind is how he skillfully shuts down interviewers who try to talk about his Obama birtherism. "I just don't talk about it. You talk about. I'm talking about XYZ, and making America great again." It's maddening how slippery Trump can be.
 

kingkitty

Member
I wish there was a good election game. Political Machine 2016 is the same barebones stuff as Political Machine 2012, but with less candidates/features. Thanks, Hillary.
 
I wish there was a good election game. Political Simulator 2016 is the same barebones stuff as Political Simulator 2012, but with less candidates/features. Thanks, Hillary.

I used to really love The Political Machine, but then they switched over to that freaky ass bobblehead thing.

*shudder*
 

East Lake

Member
I think Arnott is actually correct about why the establishment has come around on Trump. He has their line of thought nailed.
Yeah now that I look at it I shouldn't have written delusional. He's only translating what he thinks the establishment is doing, whether that's an accurate judgment idk.

Also a interesting wrinkle in the Fed I wasn't aware of.

It’s a secret of the vast U.S. Treasury market, a holdover from an age of oil shortages and mighty petrodollars: Just how much of America’s debt does Saudi Arabia own?
But now that question -- unanswered since the 1970s, under an unusual blackout by the U.S. Treasury Department -- has come to the fore as Saudi Arabia is pressured by plunging oil prices and costly wars in the Middle East.

A big risk is that the kingdom is selling some of its Treasury holdings, believed to be among the largest in the world, to raise needed dollars. Or could it be buying, looking for a port in the latest financial storm? As a matter of policy, the Treasury has never disclosed the holdings of Saudi Arabia, long a key ally in the volatile Middle East, and instead groups it with 14 other mostly OPEC nations including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. For more than a hundred other countries, from China to the Vatican, the Treasury provides a detailed breakdown of how much U.S. debt each holds.

“It’s mind-boggling they haven’t undone it,” said Edwin Truman, the former Treasury assistant secretary for international affairs during the late 1990s, and now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Because relations were rocky and the U.S. needed their oil, the Treasury “didn’t want to offend OPEC. It’s hard to justify this special treatment for OPEC at this point.”

“You need dollars if you’re an oil producer, you want to make sure you have dollars on your balance sheet,” said Sebastien Galy, Deutsche Bank’s director of foreign-exchange strategy, who suggests SAMA could be raising cash by liquidating riskier investments such as stocks, real estate and private equity. Holding dollars also makes sense as a hedge against the plummeting price of oil, which is priced in the U.S. currency.

Figures from SAMA suggest the kingdom might be reallocating some of its reserves into short-term, liquid assets to help the finance ministry meet budget commitments and defend its 30-year-old currency peg of 3.75 riyals to the dollar.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sury-bond-data-that-s-suddenly-become-crucial
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Matthews: How are you going to get that moderate suburban vote in the general? How does he move to the center in November?

Devine: We are not going there.

Matthews: Your not going to the middle in the general? Then how are you going to win?

Devine: and let me tell you why. Its not 1968 anymore. I worked for Walter Mondale when the electorate was 89% white. There is 2 theories on how to win the election. Go to the middle which is the Clinton theory. Expand the electorate which is the Sander's theory. We are going to bring new people into the process, young people, excited people like 2008

Matthews: If Bernie wins the most delegates, goes to the convention, receives the nomination, hes not going to the center?

Devine: That's right

Matthews: you don't see another McGovern here?

Devine: No. I see a Johnson landslide if Bernie is elected President

Welp
 

HylianTom

Banned
I'd give the "expand the electorate" theory more credence if we were to see a sudden, sharp uptick in new voter registration, particularly in states that require this in advance of primary/caucus day. But we haven't.

It's part of why it's hard to take the This'll-Be-A-Revolution argument seriously.
 

GuyKazama

Member
Again, I'm really not sure why anyone thinks Trump will 'centre' himself in the general. Whenver anyone has questioned his policies, he hasn't backed away - he's doubled down on them. He's been saying the same things about China, about about American world leadership for over 30 years now.

He's not some genius politician. He's a throwback to the ear of ugly American isolationism, and that's not going to change in the general.

The guys just a bombastic, egomaniacal racist feasting on the wreckage the American right wing has been pushy for decades. There's absolutely no sign that he would change, in any way shape or form, and I think people need to stop holding out hope for that.

It is Number 4 on his list of negotiating tactics: Know Your Market.

1. Think Big
2. Protect the Downside and the Upside Will Take Care of Itself
3. Maximize Your Options
4. Know Your Market
5. Use Your Leverage
6. Enhance Your Location
7. Get the Word Out
8. Fight Back
9. Deliver the Goods
10. Contain the Costs
11. Have Fun
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
"Ted Cruz is a total hypocrite and, until recently, a Canadian citizen who may not even have a legal right to run for president."

I fucking love donald trump.

Edit: saw above, I fucking hate Donald trump.
 
"Ted Cruz is a total hypocrite and, until recently, a Canadian citizen who may not even have a legal right to run for president."

I fucking love donald trump.

Edit: saw above, I fucking hate Donald trump.

I wonder how liberals in Germany would have felt about Hitler clowning other conservatives they hated.
 
This is part of the reason I can't support Bernie. He imagines the supreme Court as some magical place where he can appoint someone and they things just change."their first decisions " you have to have a legal challenge based on a law which would require new laws, which isn't happening.

That's not how the court works or how someone would overturn citizens united.

Check out @BernieSanders's Tweet: https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/690337356411330560?s=09

I mean that's the biggest reason I oppose his candidacy. His ideas about politics are just wrong and actually damaging to getting things done
 
"Ted Cruz is a total hypocrite and, until recently, a Canadian citizen who may not even have a legal right to run for president."

I fucking love donald trump.

Edit: saw above, I fucking hate Donald trump.

It's the nature of the beast. It's fun to watch him beat up on other conservatives, then he turns around and reminds you that oh, right, he's actually an incredibly terrible human being.
 
[/IMG]
Drudge ran this poll, pretty meaningless, but still weird.

Its stuff like this that make me think Sanders is going to under-perform once the actual votes start. Too much of his support is from people who generally aren't involved in politics but are drawn to his message. That's cool but people like that tend to not come on out election day. He'll still probably win NH but I think HRC gets Iowa.
 
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