thank you i'm v proud of it
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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thank you i'm v proud of it
Yes
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
What did Ted Cruz do to 108 year old Orrin Hatch.
What did Ted Cruz do to 108 year old Orrin Hatch.
How can Ted Cruz be that bad?
ugaboga232
Member
I cannot stop watching this, almost as good as the Freedom Girls trump music video.
Basileus777
Member
It's getting to the point where I expect Republican politicians to end every public appearance saying "Ted Cruz delenda est."
He can't not be physically awkward.
Raptor2155
Member
I am enjoying the fall of Ted Cruz greatly.
If you don't follow Vic Berger you're failing politics.
Abinash117
Member
What makes you think that he is going to do a near-universal replacement program before repeal ACA or do near-universal healthcare?
soul creator
Member
Daniel B·;192932162 said:
I can totally picture Trump in a debate about money in politics bragging about buying off Hillary and how they're great friends and they've made huge deals together
Trump would be Camron basically
Ogrekiller
Member
Daniel B·;192932162 said:
What's with the the constant advertising of how frugal and beneficial your lifestyle choices are? Is this the Truman show?
I don't understand where this idea that Trump would moderate if elected comes from. He's held these odious beliefs for over 20 years. It's not an act or a sham to get attention - this is what he thinks. He quite literally wants to withdraw the USA from the world order that it set up, and that delivered so much prosperity across the world (none more so than to the states themselves). I mean, some of his language is literally robber baron - pay us to keep the trade routes open, or we'll abandon you.
Trump isn't going to suddenly tack to the centre. He'll double down on the racism, the bombastic speeches and the utter idiocy of his proposals because this is what he believes.
In terms of the impact on the world stage it would be beyond disasterous. We gave Obama the Nobel prize simply because he wasn't Bush. If you guys elect Trump, whoever follows him is going to be crowned Emperor of the Moon!
Abinash117
Member
I think some think(want him to be ) he is a liberal. I also don't get some things that he will do some " liberal" policies without proposing anything .
So let's say the nominee is Trump. That's increasingly likely to the point where I'd give him a greater-than-50%-chance, especially with the implicit backing of the party establishment as preferable to Cruz.
In most models, he cannot win and Hillary Clinton will be president.
Is there anything the establishment can do in 2020 to make the situation better? They're going to be up against an incumbent, which will be hard no matter what. Do you change the primary calendar? Put different states first? Is there any way to stop the power of Trump-ism in 2020? What if Cruz comes back with a vengeance with 2 Ted 2 Cruz and becomes the standard bearer for the party?
In most models, he cannot win and Hillary Clinton will be president.
Is there anything the establishment can do in 2020 to make the situation better? They're going to be up against an incumbent, which will be hard no matter what. Do you change the primary calendar? Put different states first? Is there any way to stop the power of Trump-ism in 2020? What if Cruz comes back with a vengeance with 2 Ted 2 Cruz and becomes the standard bearer for the party?
Jack Remington
Banned
If Trump gets the nomination and loses, the 2020 nominee is almost certainly Rubio.
If we're in shitty shape as a nation with Hillary at that point, her fault or no, Rubio probably wins that.
If we're in shitty shape as a nation with Hillary at that point, her fault or no, Rubio probably wins that.
But they just tried to make Rubio happen again, and he will have been out of the Senate for four years by then. Would it work again?
You don't think he'll get reelected in the senate?
He retired to run for president (as Florida law requires), so his seat is an open seat.
He could try to run against Nelson in 2018, but that doesn't seem like the best idea, since he'd be trying to unseat a three-term incumbent with generally good favorables in an increasingly blue state.
Jack Remington
Banned
Somehow I was unaware of Rubio's predicament; these are fair points.
So who are front-runners for the 2020 nomination if Hillary wins?
So who are front-runners for the 2020 nomination if Hillary wins?
Rubio was pushed by the establishment because they hoped he could attract Hispanic voters. If the GOP would ever get serious about attracting minority voters they will find out that Hispanic is not really a thing and that Mexican Americans are not really likely to vote for someone only because their parents were born in Cuba.
He also proved to be a terrible campaigner this cycle.
In short -
Jack Remington
Banned
What is she saying in this gif? Haven't watched Mean Girls in a few years.
I had no idea. I knew Randy had this same problem and was able to weasel his way out of it, surprised Young Marco didn't also.
JesseEwiak
Member
Rubio's going to succeed Scott as Governor, then try running again in 2024 with shiny executive experience.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
It depends on how the electoral college shakes out. If Trump loses all but a few states, I think the crazier end of the party will realize "we didn't go far right enough" actually isn't the reason they lost in '08 and '12 and we'll see a semblance (emphasis on semblance) of normalcy from the party. I could see Tom Cotton doing pretty well.
If Trump does better than McCain/Romney did, I think all gloves are off and we'll end up with a frontrunner who is full fascist. Moreso than Trump. The "establishment" will almost definitely prop up their own candidate, assuming they don't this time around.
Jack Remington
Banned
Plus he'll only be 52, and if current trends are anything to go by he'll only look 35.
JesseEwiak
Member
If Trump loses big, they'll blame it on his liberal stances on x, y, and z issue.
If Cruz loses big, they'll blame his liberal (for the Right, still right-wing to sensible human beings) immigration stances, ties to Goldman Sachs, and the Establishment screwing him over.
Either way, the prescription will be the same - a "true" conservative who has never said anything liberal in his life ever.
Jack Remington
Banned
Steve King 2020.
Eh, I've been lurking conservative forums a lot recently and I haven't seen anyone criticize Cruz for being liberal on stuff. Cruz losing might be the only scenario where the GOP base realizes they actually moderate candidates. But what's more likely is they'll think our elections are corrupt now/the American public has become hopelessly ignorant, stupid, immoral, etc.
JesseEwiak
Member
I mean, there is a certain amount of "our nation has been taken over by _those_ people and thus, we're doomed mentality" but there's been rustling, especially among the more shall we say, "race realist" parts of the right about Cruz's various flip flops on immigration. Nothing major yet, but if it does come down to Cruz/Trump, I don't doubt Trump will pull out the heavy artillery for this.
It's called swiftboating. Not much to it friend.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I don't think that's swiftboating.
The goal is the same. The vessel in which it takes place doesn't really matter.
Kerry was a liar, a traitor, an unstrusworthy American unfit to be president. Swap with Hillary.
JesseEwiak
Member
Also, it's the extension of the 90's fever dreams about Bill Clinton killing Vince Foster, weird land deals that involve cocaine, Ron Brown's plane crash being a possible assassination, and so on, and so forth.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
What makes you say that? In regard to her support shoring up, I mean.
On another note, she apparently made a pretty odd appearance at an Iowa event yesterday. After Demi Lovato performed three songs, Clinton took the stage and spoke for literally less than five minutes. Maybe an issue came up immediately before the rally?
While some polls are showing Sanders winning, the aggregators (538 for example: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/) suggest that she probably does still lead overall, and that her lead has been fairly stable at 3-4% the last couple of weeks. Couple that with a fact that due to how it works she would probably win if she loses the overall vote by 3% or less, and the fact that most of the polls that show Sanders winning have unusual turnout assumptions, and I think its fair to say she seems stable.
ErasureAcer
Banned
ErasureAcer
Banned
Hillary has responded horribly over the last 2 weeks. Very bad lines of attack. Many lies and distortion. She is floundering. She can't beat a self-proclaimed socialist because she has no new ideas to fix this country while the socialist does. The American people have awoken to the fact the government is not working for their interests in the short nor long term. There is a mutiny on the ship and there's nothing Hillary can do to save herself but to get in the escape pod and live the rest of her life as a multi millionaire abuela.
Only according to a couple of polls. Most aggregators still have her holding it.
To expand on my previous post: RCP, 538, and HuffPo aggregators all have Clinton leading in Iowa, by between 2.1% and 4.1%, with two of those, RCP and 538, indicating stabilisation in the last couple of weeks. Although aggregators are not infallible, I trust them more than any one poll, and given that all three still show Clinton leading I think it is fair to say that she is.
Manmademan
Member
just read something interesting about the CNN poll, from washington post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/21/a-new-cnn-poll-shows-huge-shifts-in-iowa-but-there-may-be-an-obvious-reason-why/
The sanders and Trump spikes in Iowa for the CNN poll are based on hilariously flawed assumptions of record breaking turnout that surpass 08 by at least 50,000 participants. Without that Trump and Sanders are still behind. it's BS.
Yeah, I saw that. It's the main reason I'm ignoring its existence
Incidentally, its also got a +/-6% margin of error. So its fairly useless on two counts.
One of these days I'm going to need to do a megapost detailing exactly why Kasich isn't the moderate he pretends to be. He'd do to America what Scott Walker did to Wisconsin.
As for Trump, he's George Wallace reborn. If he wins, the white supremacists win. That's not even close to a least worst outcome.
The crazy end of the GOP will never wake up. The very best we can hope for is for them to become disillusioned with the political system and stop voting altogether.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Im not buying the Monmouth COLLEGE poll. Especially when their numbers seemed to align with CNN-ORC past voters...it seems they MonCollege wasnt calculating new caucus voters.
I will be the fearless leader and be the first to predict Iowa. Bernie gets 55-60 percent of delegates in the Hawkeye state...variance mostly depending on OMalley viability. Id say it will be closer to 60 percent than 55. This is based on current trajectory barring some anomaly at the forum Monday. Other polls besides Register are almost 2 weeks old before Hillary pissed her campaign away with some lousy attacks which she seems to be keeping up because she is not very smart.
New Iowa polls will confirm this. Hillary killed her campaign going negative.
I will be the fearless leader and be the first to predict Iowa. Bernie gets 55-60 percent of delegates in the Hawkeye state...variance mostly depending on OMalley viability. Id say it will be closer to 60 percent than 55. This is based on current trajectory barring some anomaly at the forum Monday. Other polls besides Register are almost 2 weeks old before Hillary pissed her campaign away with some lousy attacks which she seems to be keeping up because she is not very smart.
New Iowa polls will confirm this. Hillary killed her campaign going negative.
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