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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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Daniel B·;192981800 said:
Hopefully, someone can explain how the total can possibly have gone down (people getting out of Dodge and the grim reaper, perhaps?), but what this doesn't take into account, is a good percentage of that 10k Obama added, will be voting for Bernie :).

Isn't there polling that shows most Obama supporters are Clinton supporters?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Woah I didn't know he had a twin! Okay, I'm starting to warm up to Castro being the VP. Just for the funny switcharoo shenanigans they can pull.

julian_joaquin_castro_ap_328.jpg

Think of the silly Onoin articles!

538 now has Clinton between a 3 in 4 chance and 4 in 5 chance of winning Iowa based on their two methods.

Should Bernie lose Iowa, I wonder how the media will play it. I mean, him losing Iowa essentially ends the primary. He has to sweep it with NH.

My guess is if Hillary does win Iowa, it will get a little play, but all attention will be on whoever wins the GOP Iowa and leading that into NH. The Dem Primary will be pretty much forgotten within a couple days.

Pretty much, if Hillary wins IA the Dem primary will be forgotten until Bernie wins NH and then it'll be competitive again despite Bernie always being the favorite in that state.
 

Bowdz

Member
538 now has Clinton between a 3 in 4 chance and 4 in 5 chance of winning Iowa based on their two methods.

Should Bernie lose Iowa, I wonder how the media will play it. I mean, him losing Iowa essentially ends the primary. He has to sweep it with NH.

My guess is if Hillary does win Iowa, it will get a little play, but all attention will be on whoever wins the GOP Iowa and leading that into NH. The Dem Primary will be pretty much forgotten within a couple days.

In many ways, these past few weeks may help Clinton, at least in terms of the expectations game closer to the actual caucus. Going on two weeks now, Clinton has been seen to be slipping to Bernie's momentum. If she wins IA, the narrative, at least to some extent, becomes fighting back to beat back an insurgent. In terms of delegates, this race could certainly go on for months, but in terms of momentum on both sides, the first few states could be the rubicon through which the various nominations either open up into drawn out contests or end on the spot. This certainly is an exciting prospect either way.
 
Daniel B·;192981800 said:
Hopefully, someone can explain how the total can possibly have gone down (people getting out of Dodge and the grim reaper, perhaps?), but what this doesn't take into account, is a good percentage of that 10k Obama added, will be voting for Bernie :).

Moving / dying / leaving or changing parties etc.
 
Yeah and this is an excellent insight into how the right wing thinks.

Their establishment's cooked so might as well take down Hillary... because no one can possibly vote for Bernie.

Ooops.

See, this is why I usually post quote snips. :p

But yeah, I agree that this is definitely a good read insofar as providing that kind of insight.
 
538 now has Clinton between a 3 in 4 chance and 4 in 5 chance of winning Iowa based on their two methods.

Should Bernie lose Iowa, I wonder how the media will play it. I mean, him losing Iowa essentially ends the primary. He has to sweep it with NH.

My guess is if Hillary does win Iowa, it will get a little play, but all attention will be on whoever wins the GOP Iowa and leading that into NH. The Dem Primary will be pretty much forgotten within a couple days.
Depends on how she wins. If she wins big, which is possible given her ground game advantage and the stubborn nature of Sanders' campaign, it will essentially be the end. However if it's close the media will spin it as an underwhelming victory and focus on how far ahead she was x months ago vs how little she won by. Even if it's a 5-8 point victory.

IMO the bigger tell will be NH. If Sanders can't soundly defeat Hillary there it'll be a bigger sign of the end for him. Obama lost NH in 08 and while it was deflating, it was clear he had the resources and support to continue fighting in a more favorable series of states. He also gave quite a stirring speech that night to fire up his people. I remember Hillary's campaign being relieved, versus Obama's campaign being emboldened. A tight Sanders win is not going to cut it, given the more diverse states that come afterwards.

One thing the president often says is that you have to win your home games. Those are the games you're expected/favored to win. NH is Sanders' first home game IMO.
 
That Vox chart is just another lame attempt to scare the uninformed voter, because, if you earn less than 250k, you only pay an extra 2.2% in tax, BUT, that gives you UHC, without deductibles and co-pays, plus reduced prescription costs.
 
Daniel B·;192983144 said:
That Vox chart is just another lame attempt to scare the uninformed voter, because, if you earn less than 250k, you only pay an extra 2.2% in tax, BUT, that gives you UHC, without deductibles and co-pays, plus reduced prescription costs.

The uninformed voter is ususally who decides elections. I have zero faith in them listening to a long winded explanation against Trump's simple world of he raises your taxes, I'll cut your taxes and give you better health care.
 
Bernie should have campaigned on a public option.
Has Hillary? The most I've heard is her ideas to price control perscription drugs and other things. Trying to revisit the ACA and add the public option that was originally planned should be something she campaigns on
 
Has Hillary? The most I've heard is her ideas to price control perscription drugs and other things. Trying to revisit the ACA and add the public option that was originally planned should be something she campaigns on

Hillary would be wise to not run on anything regarding the ACA other than fine tuning and tweaking.

The ACA is not a general election issue either side should be totally engaging on.

It's fine for bernie to engage, of course, because he's coming from a completely different place, but it would be a mistake for Hillary. Now, after elected, she could push for a public option.
 
Daniel B·;192984680 said:
The many millions that rallied for Obama's "Change We Can Believe In", only see more of the same, with Hillary, but with Bernie's decades long consistent message, we know he will deliver, given half a chance.

Deliver? With what? A Republican congress? Has Bernie campaigned or raised money for anyone supporting his views down ballot?

Obama could barely pass the ACA and that was with full Democrat control.

But Bernie will, even though he has almost no allies even among his own establishment* ?

*Establishment being the Democratic House and Senate, which incidentally Bernie was NOT a part of during his time in both.
 
Daniel B·;192983144 said:
That Vox chart is just another lame attempt to scare the uninformed voter, because, if you earn less than 250k, you only pay an extra 2.2% in tax, BUT, that gives you UHC, without deductibles and co-pays, plus reduced prescription costs.

Unless my employer gives my healthcare back to me in my pay check, this is still fucking me.
 
Deliver? With what? A Republican congress? Has Bernie campaigned or raised money for anyone supporting his views down ballot?

Obama could barely pass the ACA and that was with full Democrat control.

But Bernie will, even though he has almost no allies even among his own establishment* ?

*Establishment being the Democratic House and Senate, which incidentally Bernie was NOT a part of during his time in both.

Yep. You know, I never really considered his lack of down-ballot campaigning before, and it's a really good point (i.e., why isn't he campaigning with other pols that support his views).
 
Yep. You know, I never really considered his lack of down-ballot campaigning before, and it's a really good point (i.e., why isn't he campaigning with other pols that support his views).

I think there are a copule reasons. One...he's really just too far left for most of the Democratic Party. Plus, I think what Barney Frank said is true. If you're not in 100% agreement with Bernie on every single thing, then you're crooked or owned by the oligarchs. I mean, not a single Senator has endorsed him. Only like two members of the House Progressive Caucus have endorsed Bernie, forty-one have endorsed Hillary. (And Bernie helped found that caucus in 91). These numbers from Oct so it may have changed.

If he gets the nod, I doubt Strickland and the rest of our potential pickups are going to run towards him.

He has never, ever helped down ballot Dems so far as I know...because he's not a Democrat.
 
Deliver? With what? A Republican congress? Has Bernie campaigned or raised money for anyone supporting his views down ballot?

Obama could barely pass the ACA and that was with full Democrat control.

But Bernie will, even though he has almost no allies even among his own establishment* ?

*Establishment being the Democratic House and Senate, which incidentally Bernie was NOT a part of during his time in both.

If Bernie wins the nom', of course his campaign will assist those down ballot, assuming they aren't diametrically oposed to Bernie`s policies, and I would assume this would finally be in full cooperation with the DNC, as Bernie will be able to accomplish precisely diddly squat, without the Democratic Senators and Representatives, by his side.
 
Not gonna happen. Julian is a bore, even less charismatic than Rubio and slightly more robotic. He's like Obama 2.0 in that he's copied all his manerisms. It's hilarious. Down here in SA, everyone knows Juaqin is the better of the two.
I think Rubio has some charisma. His voice is whiny as fuck and he malfunctions when goes off script but I do think he has some presence on stage. Of course Trump chews anyone in scenery. Jeb for example is a damp fart. No presence, no public speaking skills, no engagement. He is just there. He is worse than Romney. Romney's shit eating smirk was legendary. If I had to rate who had the most presence and charisma, it would be:

Trump > Rubio > Cruz > Christie >>>> Jeb and Carson slumming with Kasich >>> Walker
 
Daniel B·;192984680 said:
The many millions that rallied for Obama's "Change We Can Believe In", only see more of the same, with Hillary, but with Bernie's decades long consistent message, we know he will deliver, given half a chance.

I find it really interesting that Sanders and his supporters are so comfortable essentially arguing that Obama's president has been a failure, and it's time for real change; in many ways it reminds me of republican arguments, but with a different ideological slant. Obama is quite popular with the vast majority of democrats, and while I'm sure many of his 07/08 supporters are disappointed, most of them still believe in the man and appreciate what he accomplished despite fierce opposition.

Those millions that rallied for Obama still support him, and right now? They support Hillary. It's Sanders' job to convince them to support him. And you don't do that by dismissing the president's achievements and not acknowledging his influence.

This is why Sanders fans remind me more of Tea Party types or Paulites than anything else. Absolutism doesn't work in DC unless you have absolute power - and I'm not sure anyone has had absolute power since LBJ's early term. Smart people look at politics as a football game. It's not all about scoring, because you aren't going to score all the time. Advancing the ball down the field is important, and sometimes you get a field goal over a touchdown. But you advance. If the Tea Party understood this they'd be patting John Boehner and Mitch McConnell on the back for cutting the deficit, bleeding various ACA parts (and likely setting the stage for Medicaid fraud stories for years), advancing various corporate interests, protecting the House majority, etc.

A smart liberal (or socialist) would look at the ACA and realize the obvious: it paves the way for a public option or single payer system. The infrastructure is already in place for a Medicaid-for-most shift, and later a Medicaid-for-all advancement. Yet Sanders and his supporters don't even have the decency to admit the accomplishments of the law unless forced to. Sanders constantly sounds like it's still 2008, and ironically enough so do republican candidates.
 
Daniel B·;192987620 said:
If Bernie wins the nom', of course his campaign will assist those down ballot, assuming they aren't diametrically oposed to Bernie`s policies, and I would assume this would finally be in full cooperation with the DNC, as Bernie will be able to accomplish precisely diddly squat, without the Democratic Senators and Representatives, by his side.

You're laboring under the idea that Bernie can brow beat the DNC and the "establishment" for months on in to force his way onto the ballot....and we're all just going to immediately say "Well, he is our nominee so the fact that he called us morally bankrupt is a-okay now!"

He needed, at some point, to play nice with the DNC and his colleagues. He has not done that. I'm not even talking since he announced, but in the run up to it. If he thought about this for a while, he surely should have been smart enough to know he would need some support from within the DNC and the Party as a whole. He has none.

His revolution is Bernie Sanders. It begins and ends with him.
 
Daniel B·;192987620 said:
If Bernie wins the nom', of course his campaign will assist those down ballot, assuming they aren't diametrically oposed to Bernie`s policies, and I would assume this would finally be in full cooperation with the DNC, as Bernie will be able to accomplish precisely diddly squat, without the Democratic Senators and Representatives, by his side.

So he wraps up the nomination in say June.

The election is in early November.

He has a timeline of 5 months or less and that's not including stumping for himself and fighting back against the Republican smear campaign.

That's quite the feat.

And what if Bernie's views are not supported in say some of the purple states? Where candidates may not publicly support his policies because of personal interest or because the electorate is too conservative, even though the candidates are running as Democrats? Bernie cannot run on every ballot. Would you risk losing votes simply because the candidate is not ideologically pure enough, even knowing that they are needed for Bernie's vision to pass?
 
. Would you risk losing votes simply because the candidate is not ideologically pure enough, even knowing that they are needed for Bernie's vision to pass?

Oh, I'm absolutely terrified a vast majority of them would. Under the bus they go with Planned Parenthood and the HRC.

However, Bernie is not going to win purple states. He's just too liberal. I wish he wasn't, but he is. His numbers among minority voters are terrible. He has no weight with older Democrats. And his campaign basically admitted today their strategy will be to ride the 18-24 white liberals into the White House.

It would be a bloodbath, up and down the ballot.
 
What I think, and what's been a common theme here, put elegantly:

http://bottlemagazine.com/2016/01/19/on-hillary-and-bernie/


Also, while I am up for increasing taxes (including my own) I am not up for a 25% increase, even if I get free healthcare in return. And the bump on payroll taxes near the bottom is unconscionable. Those are the people who are already getting subsidized care, this just hits them directly. And they can least afford it.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
So, it seems as if the Castro team decided to leak a bunch of stories today about him being set up as the VP nom.

Some thoughts:

-- This feels more calculated than any sort of mechanizations than the DNC has gone through to give tacit support to Hillary over Bernie. Because the VP isn't actually elected in the same with that the president is nominated, it truly feels as if Castro has been pushed by the party elite in a way that he would be unable to do if he were running for the VP spot.

-- I'm very suspect of this nomination. Castro was a (largely ceremonial) mayor of a huge city, and while Universal Pre-K is awesome, he has few other accomplishments under his belt. This is similar to him as HUD Secretary -- what, exactly, are his accomplishments? If we had some sort of huge light rail initiative or something with rural road infrastructure or some sort of huge push for affordable housing (not like, 30 units in Bridgeport, which is still nice), I would be more inclined to support this nomination.

-- The Dems have a very weak bench when it comes to Hispanic and Latino governors and senators. Obviously, Catherine Cortez Masto's star will erupt if/when she's elected in November, but Republicans have Rubio, Cruz (lol), Sandoval, and Martinez, with almost all of them from extremely key states. In Florida, Dems are not running any Hispanic or Latino candidates for the open seat. A lot of the diversity in the Dem caucus seems to be stuck in the House and hasn't really translated to the Senate.
 
You're laboring under the idea that Bernie can brow beat the DNC and the "establishment" for months on in to force his way onto the ballot....and we're all just going to immediately say "Well, he is our nominee so the fact that he called us morally bankrupt is a-okay now!"

He needed, at some point, to play nice with the DNC and his colleagues. He has not done that. I'm not even talking since he announced, but in the run up to it. If he thought about this for a while, he surely should have been smart enough to know he would need some support from within the DNC and the Party as a whole. He has none.

His revolution is Bernie Sanders. It begins and ends with him.

No Adam, you are looking at this from the completely wrong (party) angle; if the American people overwhelmingly back Bernie, and the Democratic party effectively sais "We don't care what the American people want!", well...
 
-- The Dems have a very weak bench when it comes to Hispanic and Latino governors and senators. Obviously, Catherine Cortez Masto's star will erupt if/when she's elected in November, but Republicans have Rubio, Cruz (lol), Sandoval, and Martinez, with almost all of them from extremely key states. In Florida, Dems are not running any Hispanic or Latino candidates for the open seat. A lot of the diversity in the Dem caucus seems to be stuck in the House and hasn't really translated to the Senate.

There are no Latino Florida Dems in the entire House. That's crazy!
 

FiggyCal

Banned
You're laboring under the idea that Bernie can brow beat the DNC and the "establishment" for months on in to force his way onto the ballot....and we're all just going to immediately say "Well, he is our nominee so the fact that he called us morally bankrupt is a-okay now!"

He needed, at some point, to play nice with the DNC and his colleagues. He has not done that. I'm not even talking since he announced, but in the run up to it.
If he thought about this for a while, he surely should have been smart enough to know he would need some support from within the DNC and the Party as a whole. He has none.

His revolution is Bernie Sanders. It begins and ends with him.

What should he have done? Or what did he do that wasn't playing nice?
 
So he wraps up the nomination in say June.

The election is in early November.

He has a timeline of 5 months or less and that's not including stumping for himself and fighting back against the Republican smear campaign.

That's quite the feat.

And what if Bernie's views are not supported in say some of the purple states? Where candidates may not publicly support his policies because of personal interest or because the electorate is too conservative, even though the candidates are running as Democrats? Bernie cannot run on every ballot. Would you risk losing votes simply because the candidate is not ideologically pure enough, even knowing that they are needed for Bernie's vision to pass?

Until he really knows that he indeed, has an excellent shot at the nomination, say after Super Tuesday, I can't fault him for purely concentrating on his nomination bid, for the time being, but, I would agree, that it sounds like he would need to spread his wings wider, before the nomination process completely winds up.

On your last point, although Bernie is by no means perfect, I fully trust in his many years of experience and political smarts, to make the right choices on that front, that will no doubt, take into account the political climate on the ground.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
They only look at people that voted in 2012 or 2014. It will come down to if Bernie can turn out the college dudes that love him, but haven't voted before.

If his get out the vote and registration efforts have been good then it's a possibility that he can win the popular vote but come away with less delegates, which I feel like we should all be preparing for given how his support is clustered across the state.
 
Daniel B·;192992327 said:
Until he really knows that he indeed, has an excellent shot at the nomination, say after Super Tuesday, I can't fault him for purely concentrating on his nomination bid, for the time being, but, I would agree, that it sounds like he would need to spread his wings wider, before the nomination process completely winds up.

On your last point, although Bernie is by no means perfect, I fully trust in his many years of experience and political smarts, to make the right choices on that front, that will no doubt, take into account the political climate on the ground.

But if he was serious about realizing his vision he would try to have people already in place, or have people on the ballot friendly towards his vision. That kind of long term planning takes time and money... and a big establishment that he could tap into like say the Democratic party. Hmm.

If he really stayed true to being an outsider, he would have run as an independent, not as a part of the corrupt establishment he is trying to overthrow.

Yeah Bernie's been in the game for a long time. The narrative that he wouldn't compromise seems absurd.

But his campaign is about not compromising. Otherwise his base would turn against him. Compromise is why the current system is broken. Either go the whole way or not at all.
 
So, it seems as if the Castro team decided to leak a bunch of stories today about him being set up as the VP nom.

Some thoughts:

-- This feels more calculated than any sort of mechanizations than the DNC has gone through to give tacit support to Hillary over Bernie. Because the VP isn't actually elected in the same with that the president is nominated, it truly feels as if Castro has been pushed by the party elite in a way that he would be unable to do if he were running for the VP spot.

-- I'm very suspect of this nomination. Castro was a (largely ceremonial) mayor of a huge city, and while Universal Pre-K is awesome, he has few other accomplishments under his belt. This is similar to him as HUD Secretary -- what, exactly, are his accomplishments? If we had some sort of huge light rail initiative or something with rural road infrastructure or some sort of huge push for affordable housing (not like, 30 units in Bridgeport, which is still nice), I would be more inclined to support this nomination.

-- The Dems have a very weak bench when it comes to Hispanic and Latino governors and senators. Obviously, Catherine Cortez Masto's star will erupt if/when she's elected in November, but Republicans have Rubio, Cruz (lol), Sandoval, and Martinez, with almost all of them from extremely key states. In Florida, Dems are not running any Hispanic or Latino candidates for the open seat. A lot of the diversity in the Dem caucus seems to be stuck in the House and hasn't really translated to the Senate.
Agreed with this. I don't like Castro being pushed up like this at all. He isn't ready. The DNC needs to push him to get real work in and run for a senate seat or something somewhere and prove he can win stuff on his own. If Hillary were to win and then something happened to her that would be a complete disaster. We can't treat the VP spot like a Pokemon daycare center
 
Hillary would be wise to not run on anything regarding the ACA other than fine tuning and tweaking.

The ACA is not a general election issue either side should be totally engaging on.

It's fine for bernie to engage, of course, because he's coming from a completely different place, but it would be a mistake for Hillary. Now, after elected, she could push for a public option.
yeah this is true. My concern is that being to conservative with the ACA and not making something more obviously beneficial will not make the public's opinion on it improve enough to where it won't be torn apart by the next republican president. The public rightly or wrongly seems to still be too appathetic about it.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Agreed with this. I don't like Castro being pushed up like this at all. He isn't ready. The DNC needs to push him to get real work in and run for a senate seat or something somewhere and prove he can win stuff on his own. If Hillary were to win and then something happened to her that would be a complete disaster. We can't treat the VP spot like a Pokemon daycare center
One of my big worries with him stems from a combination of Clinton's age and foreign policy uncertainty. It's going to be inevitable that the VP is looked at very closely when a party names someone over a certain age. Hillary herself gets suprisingly strong numbers among the national electorate as far as terrorism/homeland security is concerned, but if events abroad take prominence going into the Autumn, a VP candidate with foreign experience holes in his/her resume is going to carry some degree of risk.

I fully hope and expect that if she does win, he'll continue to build a resume in some other position.

This, and.. if Trump is the nominee, Hispanic voters are going to be plen-ty motivated to turn out, regardless of who she puts in that VP spot.
 
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