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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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H

Holmes

Member
VPs and VP candidates are just eye candy and ticket balancing. Who cares? I've always hated the "if the president dies, do you want this person to take over?" argument. It's 2016. Presidents have the best health care in the world.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Holmes said:
VPs and VP candidates are just eye candy and ticket balancing. Who cares? I've always hated the "if the president dies, do you want this person to take over?" argument. It's 2016. Presidents have the best health care in the world.
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I think you need someone who's qualified to be president, or else it could come across as pandering.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
I've said for months its going to be Julian and I will be serving crow if it happens in six months.

*but certainly can see pandering written all over it.
 
H

Holmes

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I think you need someone who's qualified to be president, or else it could come across as pandering.
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Sure, but it's not like Castro is some random dude off the street. There's quite a bit of concern trolling going on here right now. He might not have accomplished much but he's not controversial. So he's good. Because the election would be on Clinton and whoever her opponent is, not on the VP's.

Unless you're Sarah Palin and you suck. But Castro is no Palin.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
NeoXChaos said:
If its Trump I doubt it will matter if he is ultimately picked. I've said for months its going to be him and I will be serving crow if it happens in six months.

*but certainly can see pandering written all over it.
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Agreed. If by some miracle Rubio becomes the GOP nominee and the general is highly competitive, Kaine will be the VP nominee. If it is Trump, Castro will be the nominee to play up the margins of the Hispanic vote irrespective of his prior experience.

Besides, just from reading the Politico article posted, you can tell Castro is a natural politician (unlike Cruz). He befriends everyone, is a quick learner, and seems to understand the human nature of the game quite well.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
FiggyCal said:
What should he have done? Or what did he do that wasn't playing nice?
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Well, not calling the party morally bankrupt for one would have been a nice place to start. Not suing the DNC for the rules that his campaign broke would be another. Not attacking everything and everyone that doesn't "Feel the Bern" as an establishment sellout would be another. Having actually stumped for Democrats down ballot would be a good one. Actually joining the Democratic party prior to deciding to run for our nomination would have been awesome. Building relationships within the movers of the party would have been great. Respecting the things the party has done for decades, and not bailing on the Jefferson Jackson Dinner the moment his speech was up would have been nice. Raising money to help elect even like minded candidates would have been super.

So, basically, anything Devine told him to do...do the opposite. I'm willing to lay the blame at his campaign's feet. I can't imagine someone having been in politics for 30 years is this absolutely uneducated on the power of optics.

Daniel B·;192992327 said:
Until he really knows that he indeed, has an excellent shot at the nomination, say after Super Tuesday, I can't fault him for purely concentrating on his nomination bid, for the time being, but, I would agree, that it sounds like he would need to spread his wings wider, before the nomination process completely winds up.

On your last point, although Bernie is by no means perfect, I fully trust in his many years of experience and political smarts, to make the right choices on that front, that will no doubt, take into account the political climate on the ground.
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Again, though, you're talking about relationships that don't bud over night. he's seeing this with the AA community. He thought he could simply fly in and once everyone saw him, they'd fawn at his feet. that's not how coalition building works. You need connections within the Party to have support within it. I know some Berners think that the Party is bad, but it's really not.

People love to hate on Hillary for knowing people that run groups like the HRC or Planned Parenthood. But, stop and ask yourself WHY she knows these people. She's not stupid. She knows that to get shit done, you have to have connections. These things simply will not happen overnight, and they certainly won't be built in the middle of a GE campaign.

Bernie only has to defeat the GOP smear machine, deal with being flooded by Super Pacs, deal with the Socialism thing, run a campaign that is solely focused on getting out the young, white people, overcome his AA and Hispanic problem, convince down ballot Dems to get on board, convince his supporters to support said down ballot Dems who are all probably corporate shrill oligarchs, AND run a General election campaign.

I mean, if that's all....
 
I

Iolo

Member
I could throw darts at a number line and be more accurate than Zogby though

Meanwhile Cruz just got another evangelical endorsement. I still think Cruz will win Iowa due to reliability of evangelicals.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Holmes said:
Sure, but it's not like Castro is some random dude off the street. There's quite a bit of concern trolling going on here right now. He might not have accomplished much but he's not controversial. So he's good. Because the election would be on Clinton and whoever her opponent is, not on the VP's.

Unless you're Sarah Palin and you suck. But Castro is no Palin.
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That's exactly how they will attempt to portray him, though. And by 'they' I mean the GOP in conjunction with the media who won't be able to resist that narrative. And I can actually see Castro having quite a poor veep debate (obviously not as disastrous as Mrs. Wasilla Word Salad).
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
vicissitudes said:
New Zogby GOP National Poll:

WhfnHGl.gif


Welp, wrap it up folks.
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Low energy
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Mr. Bush wore the pained look of a man who has fielded the question before. “I try to avoid in these meetings to have a Trump therapy session,” he said. But then he played therapist anyway, consoling the Trump-averse crowd.
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When I think "therapy" I think Jeb! Bush. But not in the way Bush does...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
iZeezbruh said:
So these 3 Iowa polls come out on the same day/next day. Sanders +8, Clinton +9, Clinton +29....wat
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Sanders +8 assumed historic turnout of new, male voters. Clinton +29 assumes no people go to caucus other than people who voted in 2012 or 2014. The assumptions of pollsters are wildly different which is the overwhelming difference in the results.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
I can't with the Clinton email thread. Every time you think you've dealt with one, another pops up.

I had no idea Fox News talking points were so popular on NeoGAF.
 
Z

ZeezbruhTV

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Sanders +8 assumed historic turnout of new, male voters. Clinton +29 assumes no people go to caucus other than people who voted in 2012 or 2014. The assumptions of pollsters are wildly different which is the overwhelming difference in the results.
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Ahhh sweet, thanks. That Sanders tax graph....RIP
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The political science research I've read suggests that "voted in prior years" is a much stronger indicator of being a likely voter than saying you're likely to vote so the media is setting Bernie up here almost. They're only talking about the positive polls when Clinton +29 is more likely than the positive polls based on past history. If Bernie comes in with the media expectation of winning Iowa (or having a 50/50 shot) and gets slaughtered by 20 points, that's going to kill his momentum.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The political science research I've read suggests that "voted in prior years" is a much stronger indicator of being a likely voter than saying you're likely to vote so the media is setting Bernie up here almost. They're only talking about the positive polls when Clinton +29 is more likely than the positive polls based on past history. If Bernie comes in with the media expectation of winning Iowa (or having a 50/50 shot) and gets slaughtered by 20 points, that's going to kill his momentum.
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You can't kill what you don't ever have. If he loses by 20, it means it was never there. An apparition.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
QuiteWhittle said:
Joe Garcia was the only one when he lost his seat. Annette Taddeo(two-time loser) is running for his old seat but I honestly doubt she's going to win. The FDP is incompetent all around, it's sad.
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Yeah, they're trying to push Taddeo hard again in 2016. Demographics and turn out might help, but.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Jack Remington said:
I can't with the Clinton email thread. Every time you think you've dealt with one, another pops up.

I had no idea Fox News talking points were so popular on NeoGAF.
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Not just the email thread. Any Bernie/Hillary thread devolves into conspiracy theories, soft sexism, persecution complexes, ignorance on politics etc
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Gilmore has caught Fiorina and passed Santorum:

The new poll, released Friday, finds that Jeb Bush and John Kasich each receive 4 percent, Chris Christie 3 percent, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul 2 percent, Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore tie at 1 percent support, and Rick Santorum receives less than one percent.
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Gilmentum!
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
O

Overlee

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
By election time, I think that number will shrink considerably. While it would be amazing to see 15% of republicans stay home, I just can't see it happening. The idea of 12 years of democratic presidency will eat away at them.
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Bernie is not the new FDR, Hillary is!

4 more years!
4 more years!
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Jack Remington said:
I can't with the Clinton email thread. Every time you think you've dealt with one, another pops up.

I had no idea Fox News talking points were so popular on NeoGAF.
Click to expand...

Now you know what it was like to be a hillary fan in 2008 when the OBAMABOTS were crazy
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
By election time, I think that number will shrink considerably. While it would be amazing to see 15% of republicans stay home, I just can't see it happening. The idea of 12 years of democratic presidency will eat away at them.
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There's a good chance these Republicans who won't vote for Trump are concentrated in Blue states like California, NY, NJ, Washington, etc.

These are probably GOPers who are socially more liberal and may even care about the environment but want their taxes cut. They know their state won't vote red and in the past they voted to simply stand with their party but they just won't vote for Trump because he's a racist asshole who really seems to know very little in terms of world and domestic politics.

So that 15% might shrink or it might not. But if it doesn't shrink, it might not matter in the grand scheme because it depends where these people are concentrated.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Third Strike said:
If you were to ask me who the front-runners would be one year ago, I would have said Walker, Rubio, and Bush. Strange how things play out in the end.
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Agreed. I'm still in awe at how this has unfolded.

If I ever get the chance to meet Bill Clinton, I'm going to thank him for that infamous phone call to Trump, whether all of this was his intention or not.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
B

Black Mamba

Member
HylianTom said:
Agreed. I'm still in awe at how this has unfolded.

If I ever get the chance to meet Bill Clinton, I'm going to thank him for that infamous phone call to Trump, whether all of this was his intention or not.
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You know, I can honestly say I have no idea how this GOP primary would be playing out right now if Trump never got involved.

Immigration probably wouldn't have been a major topic. Maybe Walker doesn't bow out so early. I have no idea. Trump really threw a gigantic wrench into this. Definitely more entertaining.
 
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